Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.
(Palmerston, who was no slouch when it came to Imperialism).
Let’s examine the evidence:
- Middle East in Chaos
- US Pushing NATO to Russian Borders
- US Oil & Gas Production rising sharply
- Russia major energy supplier to Europe & China
- Middle East Oil Production at or past peak
This is a theory, constructed to fit the set of facts listed, and to try to provide an Hypothesis which meets the facts, explains the US’ behavior, lists the possible outcomes and discusses the probabilities of those outcomes.
It’s about “MEE:” Money, Energy and, Empire.
Following Syria’s agreement to dismantle its poison gas arsenal (a wise decision given the potential blowback from the use of Poison Gas), and Russia’s help in removing that excuse for arming the “opposition” in Syria – who are also the “Opposition” to the Iraq Government, one of the US’ “interests,” countering the US’ Money and Empire – which the US likes to think is an irresistible force – is The Russian immovable object.¸
The US then appeared to pivot to expedite the overthrow of the elected, Russian-leaning Ukrainian Government, in February this year. One factor in the overthrow was after the Ukrainian Government considered financial rescue packages from the West and Russia, and rejected the West’s offer. A second factor would include removing Ukraine from Russia’s sphere of influence .
The Ukrainian Government at that time was considered a Russia-leaning Government, which was obviously not the US’ interests, and when in trouble, the US’ had no compunction in putting the boots to a democratically-elected Government which failed to agree with them, even though the Government, had less that 9 months left in its mandate. Despite its protestations to the contrary, democratically-elected governments make the US nervous. What would have happened, if the Russian-leaning Government had pulled off the financial rescue based on Russia’s aid package? Why, it may have been reelected. Can’t have that, can we? Better to remove such an uncertain ally, whose support came from an obviously-fickle electorate not beholden to the Neo-Liberal West, at the earliest opportune time.
A re-elected Ukrainian Russian-leaning government might not force Ukrainian Serfs into the arms of the Neo-Liberal Fascists of the West.
A consequence of the NATO invasion of Ukraine was Russia’s move to secure their only warm water port, a move which was inevitable, both from a study of Russian history, and the current investment in port expansion in the Crimea by Russia and China. Protestations of dismay from the US and other allied countries is deceit at its best. One has no doubt these actions were a part of their analysis of Russia’s response, and Russia’s action came as no surprise, especially after the provocation by the US in Ukraine (The government overthrow). If Ukraine came firmly into the US camp, Russia would be encircled by US allies, except on her Chinese border. Clearly, the goal was to be able to put irresistible pressure on Russia to follow the American Way.
As we analyze the American pressure tactics on Russia, it’s worth noting that Ukraine is also the route for many gas pipelines from Russia to Europe; if the US could engineer trouble in Ukraine, that might make Russia an unreliable supplier of Gas to Europe, enhancing offers from the US to “help solve Europe’s energy problem,” and potentially opening up the European market to Liquid Natural Gas from the US. No one asked the Europeans if they would prefer to be beholden to a different energy supplier, instead of Russia; if the US succeeds, Europe would be forced to acquiesce to US trade demands, instead of Russian demands. They’d still be beholden, but the US would be able to force TTIP and TISA on them, by threatening to withhold energy supplies if Europe fails to sign on the dotted line.