The Gallup survey group reports this month that there is a significant gap in political participation between black and white America, as well as between younger and older citizens. Disturbingly, this divide has grown in the last two years, despite the severity of the economic crisis and the growth of suffering among middle America and the poor. This disparity in participation between old and young, black and white, carries with it major implications for democratic representation.

Minority and youthful voters saw major increases in turnout in the historic 2008 election in which one of the youngest, and the first African American president in history, was elected. Voting among these groups however has now dropped to previously apathetic levels. Whereas whites and blacks were just as likely to say they thought about the 2008 election either “some” or “a lot,” the gap between the groups is now 17 percentage points (45% v. 25%) favoring whites. The current level of attentiveness represents an all time low for the last 15 years for blacks, but also for whites.

While the difference between voting for those between 18 and 29 and those over 30 was relatively small for 2008, that gap grew significantly by 2010. The gap went from 12 percentage points (favoring older Americans) in 2008 to 23 percentage points this year. Electoral attention is now at a near 15 year low for the 18-29 age group, and for those over 30 (both groups saw lower attention in only one year: 2004).

The growing de-politicization among traditionally marginalized groups (the young and minorities) is disturbing in that it raises serious questions about public attitudes going into the 2008 election and today. There was much self-congratulation among those on the left and among members of disadvantaged demographic groups that the election of Barack Obama constituted a major step toward achieving racial harmony, in fixing an economy in the toilet, and in dealing with the problems left behind from the Bush administration.

Few of these expectations appear to have been warranted in light of Obama’s hawkish escalation of the war in Afghanistan, his abandonment of progressive policy reforms focusing in terms of promoting Wall Street regulation and breaking up banks that are “too big to fail,” and considering the Democratic Party’s tepid response to conservative domestic dogmas regarding the “need” for continued tax cuts for the rich and the “necessity” of cutting social welfare programs such as Social Security.

What the recent Gallup figures demonstrate is the extraordinary naiveté that followed the accompanied the 2008 elections. Voters thought they could ensure a new era of “hope” and “change” simply by voting a fresh face into the highest office in the land and returning the Democrats to majority status. This type of reasoning represents identity politics at its worst, and it is the predictable effect of elections that are defined by individual personalities, rather than by real issues. Identity-politics voting does not bring about democratic change, and assumptions that it will are unwarranted. Progressive change never comes from the top down, but from the pressure of grassroots protestors and activism demanding a better world. If “the left” understood this basic point, they would have been busy building social movements over the last two years, rather than sitting back and waiting for Obama to save them.

Those hoping for progressive change this fall are in for a rude awakening. The Pew Research Center chronicles what will likely be successful efforts to organize Republican supporters and get them to turnout for the 2010 midterms. The organization reported in August 2010 in anticipation of the November elections that self-described Republicans were “more engaged in the coming election and more inclined to say they are certain to vote than are Democrats.” Whereas 56 percent of Republicans as of June 2010 were “enthusiastic about voting” in the fall, the number fell to 42 percent for Democrats and Independents. This was the largest gap between partisans seen in 16 years. Additionally, 64 percent of Republicans explained that they were closely following campaign news, compared to 50 percent of Democrats. Finally, 77 percent of Republican voters said they were “absolutely certain to vote,” as compared to 65 percent of Democratic voters

The ascendancy of the Republican right in this election will further seal the deal in preventing reforms on Wall Street or any successful efforts to reduce poverty through increased welfare spending or renewed stimulus. Republicans (and increasingly most Democrats) don’t care about economic recovery. They are concerned first and foremost with returning profitability to Wall Street, and that goal was already achieved this year, leaving little incentive to push for broader economic recovery. There is a very real chance that the economy will further decline over the next year, in light of the increasing intransigence of the Democratic Party, as seen in its opposition to further stimulus spending, and the staunch opposition of Republicans to any increase in federal taxation that could be used to help states fill their budget gaps (and stave off mass firings). As a result, the road to progressive change may be filled with much hardship in the next few years, as the economy continues to sputter along and more Americans are thrown out of work. The public, it seems, must continually be reminded that real democratic change is never handed down from above, but has to be fought for through long struggle and sacrifice.

Anthony DiMaggio is the editor of media-ocracy (www.media-ocracy.com), a daily online magazine devoted to the study of media, public opinion, and current events. He has taught U.S. and Global Politics at Illinois State University and North Central College, and is the author of When Media Goes to War (2010) and Mass Media, Mass Propaganda (2008). He can be reached at: mediaocracy@gmail.com