First off, those of us involved in this subject have lamented a recent poll showing increased doubt about global warming (although despite this, there is still strong support for clean energy)
The debate among climate scientists has been over for years. So if you’re among the skeptics or know someone who is, there are good resources out there that explain the science pretty clearly. The Union of Concerned Scientists has excellent material here and here.
Now, getting back to Kerry/Boxer, as I wrote here yesterday, the Senate’s version of the bill to address climate change has passed out of Barbara Boxer’s committee and is now in Baucus’s Finance committee. Many people have pushed back on this bill and ACES as not going far enough and actually worse than doing nothing. In my opinion, and in the opinion of many experts, this is simply not true.
These bills are really our best and only shot to stem the tide of global warming. We lost 8 years under Bush, and most scientists are in agreement that we really have to act soon if we want to avoid the catastrophic affects of global climate change.
These bills will work. Joe Romm writes the blog Climateprogress.org. According to Time Magazine, he is "The Web’s most influential climate change blogger." In a recent article about the House version of the bill, Joe writes:
In a regulated market with a cap, many of the domestic offsets will represent real reductions of US greenhouse gas emissions, and the total supply of cheap domestic offsets will be limited.
Al Gore, who has interviewed nearly every climate scientist in the world, wrote this about the House bill:
The American Clean Energy Security (ACES) Act is one of the most important pieces of legislation Congress will ever pass. This comprehensive legislation will make meaningful reductions in global warming pollution, spur investment in clean energy technology, create jobs and reduce our reliance on foreign oil.
These bills wont wreck the economy. Don’t believe me? How about Nobel Prize Winning Economist Paul Krugman:
It’s important, then, to understand that claims of immense economic damage from climate legislation are as bogus, in their own way, as climate-change denial. Saving the planet won’t come free (although the early stages of conservation actually might). But it won’t cost all that much either.
…the Congressional Budget Office released an analysis of the effects of Waxman-Markey, concluding that in 2020 the bill would cost the average family only $160 a year, or 0.2 percent of income. That’s roughly the cost of a postage stamp a day.
By 2050, when the emissions limit would be much tighter, the burden would rise to 1.2 percent of income. But the budget office also predicts that real G.D.P. will be about two-and-a-half times larger in 2050 than it is today, so that G.D.P. per person will rise by about 80 percent. The cost of climate protection would barely make a dent in that growth. And all of this, of course, ignores the benefits of limiting global warming.
Can’t the EPA just regulate CO2? This is a good thing to hold over the heads of Congress to get them to pass Climate Change legislation, but it’s risky to rely on it because a future congress could block the EPA, as they did in the 1990s when the EPA tried to impose stricter CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) requirements on SUVs. Plus, a future administration could get the EPA to change its stance on this. Grist has a good run down of this option here.
Lastly, I’m sure I’ll get some push back, because I often do, about the fact that James Hansen came out against Cap&Trade in general and the House bill specifically. If you don’t know Hansen, he’s probably the most well know climate scientist in the world. He’s been sounding the alarm bells about climate change for years as a NASA scientist. He is calling for a tax on carbon. His credentials on climate change are impeccable, but I think he’s wrong here. While this may be a good solution in theory, I can’t imagine there’s even a chance of getting a new tax through this Congress.
Joe Romm has a lengthy take down of Hansen’s arguments here. In summary:
Still, his arguments need debunking because he is mostly recycling myths that others are pushing — and with the country’s top climate scientist putting his name on this collection of false and misleading statements, they will no doubt be parroted by yet more people.
Just like we have worked to make the Healthcare Reform bill include a public option (which isn’t our best case scenario), we need to work to strengthen Kerry/Boxer, not kill it. In the case of climate change, this isn’t a case of the perfect being the enemy of the good, it’s a case of the perfect being an enemy of the planet.



18 Comments







Bullshit, the best way to fix global warming is to actually do something about it, like quit burning coal, and using oil to run all our vehicles.
Taxing and writing bills is nothing but another joke on us.
In the first place expecting the Congress, the people who have caused all our problems from our for profit healthcare system to the housing and Banking crisi’s to have the wisdom to do anything right is insanity.
Writing bills is what Congress does. Hate to break it to you.
Yeah, I’m with BAmer, I don’t see how this can’t help. Though I will say the part in ACES where they take away the EPA’s power doesn’t sit right with me. That’s not in the Senate version as far as I know, though.
Mid november where I live, (central canadian prairies) no snow, t-shirt weather.
Better do something very soon.
if you think the current bill should be improved, then please let us know what you think should be done. and give us the science to back up why you think the legislation will work. in other words, if you want support for the dem’s bill, stop the war on science, and come up with something that will actually save the planet.
something that won’t do that, and yet puts a big financial burden on the citizenry (although the banksters love it) is not good policy and dems ought to be ashamed for trying to sell it to a trusting constituency.
i’m tired of being told i have to support lousy policy that won’t work just because it’s the best we can expect from a D congress. and i certainly have better things to do with my time.
Amen! Selise
Seems like evidence was given here that it will, in fact, work…
i didn’t see any evidence for how the legislation this post is pushing would achieve 350ppm before runaway climate change. did you:?
and btw, it’s not just hansen, have you read the cbo report?
Gore and Romm like it, Hansen doesn’t. I don’t see how that makes one or the other right, just that there seems to be evidence and persuaded experts in either camp.
you claimed there was evidence. i’d like to see it if there is. appeals to authority, especially by political figures, carry absolutely no weight.
it’s really not that hard. if there is good climate analysis that says this bill will work, and that means to prevent catastrophic climate change, not just to lower co2 levels long after it’s too late, point me to it. i’ll read it, i’ll even try my best to have an open mind. otherwise, please just stop with the talking points and/or useless links.
You set up the guidelines so any analysis will fail your test, as usual. But here’s analysis, linked above, that says the bill will start us on the path:
http://climateprogress.org/2009/06/26/house-approves-landmark-bipartisan-clean-energy-and-climate-bill-final-vote-waxman-markey/
Is it enough? Who knows. It is better than nothing? Yes. Is it what this Congress is going to pass? Again, yes. So I don’t see why it should be voted down. But maybe that’s not the argument you’re making.
Why is it that every completely crap idea uses this defense? Pissing on a house fire is probably better than nothing, but seriously what’s the point. We have a window of less than 10 years, probably less than 5, in which to act. And you come up with this idiotic, well, if we pass a program that won’t have any significant impact until long after the window is closed, that’s better than nothing. Your thinking on this is as poor as it is on healthcare. Political solutions are just so much kabuki, and waste of time and resources, if they don’t actually provide a real solution among all the political posturing.
Maybe my definition of a progressive is going out of date but for me a progressive is someone who backs real, workable solutions. Unfortunately, for progressives and the country, neither Republicans nor Democrats show any interest in them. They, like you, are consumed by the politics of the issue. For them and you, anything no matter how pathetic can be rationalized as being better than nothing. The current state of our country shows what such thinking produces.
Given where we are in the debate, this is the choice we are left with. It’s not where I’d like to be, but you have to take reality as it is.
This is I think a thoughtful analysis. The real deal is in his first paragraph. It is suicidal to continue to pursue unrestricted growth to solve our economic and other problems. Like a cancer it eventually kills its host.
More http://atlantaprogressivenews.com/news/0544.html
This is a strawman. ACES and/or Kerry/Boxer may reduce atmospheric carbon somewhat but this is really apples and oranges. Most of the cuts in both bills are backloaded and won’t happen for decades. Meanwhile we have a non-linear physical process happening in the climate. By the time these cuts eventually come in, and there are question marks and red flags all over these bills, we will have passed one or more critical tipping points. I don’t think you sufficiently grasp the concept of these. It is rather like taking steam at 213 F and cooling it one degree to 212 F. The energy lost is the same as that lost if you take it from 214 F to 213 F. But going below 212 F to 211 F you have a phase change. The steam condenses to water. The problem comes when you try to reverse the process. Taking water from 211 F to 212 F also takes the same amount of energy but to convert the water to steam (the heat of vaporation) takes a great deal more energy (540Cal/gm, sorry to use different units).
If that is too confusing, think of it this way. Smaller changes now will have a bigger impact than much larger changes taken down the road. These bills ignore the basic science of global warming. To use yet another image, they propose building big motors to pump out the water flooding into the Titanic. The problem? The ship will have sunk by the time the motors come on line. This is why Hansen and others, me included, think these bills completely miss the point. They fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the problem, and hence will. not. work.
I don’t think you need to be this mean about it. You’re implying I’m stupid because I have a different opinion. I understand boiling water. Been dealing with that for years every time I make pasta.
We have only a few years to get started. If we don’t have this going by 2012 or 2013 it’s not going to matter. Do you really think we have any chances of doing better than this before 2012? How? We will probably lose part of the democratic majority in 2010. Do you think that will make Congress more or less likely to act on this in 2011? After 2012, if Obama faces an idiot like Palin and sweeps back into office (best case scenario) we are at 2013 – and the groundwork laid with this bill can be improved.
It’s our only choice now, IMO.
And what’s vastly more likely, future congresses and administrations (and probably the current ones as well) will fail to enforce this weak bill, and gut it further whenever convenient.
If Hansen doesn’t count as an authority, then neither do Romm or Gore. So it’s either, authority is divided, so we can’t look there for guidance, or you just pick whoever supports what you already wanted to do.
(I only said that because you wanted to appeal to authority.)
At least Hansen’s an outsider, not a system cadre like the other two. (I seem to have just seen an FDL piece on Joe Romm’s CAP…)
There’s the dispositive strawman. You know damn well nobody who follows this issue even dreams of “the perfect”. The only question here is whether this bill is minimally acceptable or not.
Whenever I hear the debate-killing “perfect is the enemy of the good” lie (and it’s always a strawman lie), I know the arguer has no confidence in his own position. We need a version of Godwin’s law for that.
Here’s the CAP link, what they’re up to:
http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/11/11/cap-report-calls-for-postponement-of-gitmo-closure/
Let’s not close Gitmo!