The report is called Copenhagen Diagnosis. It provides an update to the IPCC 2007 report, since their next official report is not due until 2013.
The report states:
* Satellite and direct measurements now demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate.
* Arctic sea-ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models. For example, the area of summer sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
* Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80% higher than IPCC projections from 2001. Accounting for ice-sheets and glaciers, global sea-level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 meters considered an upper limit by this time. This is much higher than previously projected by the IPCC. Furthermore, beyond 2100, sea level rise of several meters must be expected over the next few centuries.
* In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were ~40% higher than those in 1990. Even if emissions do not grow beyond today’s levels, within just 20 years the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.
2 degrees Celsius has generally been accepted as the maximum warming that the earth could see without catastrophic consequences, and many scientists are thinking that even this is too much.
This rise in CO2 and other greenhouse gasses has led to a 1 degree Celsius rise in average global temperatures. This has been responsible for all of the melting we have seen, and has led to floods and violent storms (including Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan last August – which brought 114 inches of rain in 3 days and caused the worst floods in that country in 50 years – more info here) and droughts. (like the recent one in Australia) In addition, Great Britain and Ireland are experiencing the worst flooding in years, as described in this DailyKos diary.
And, as more evidence that things are indeed getting warmer, NASA recently reported that the Earth just went through the hottest June to October period since record keeping started, as described in detail here. The irony here (looking at a NOAA temperature map provided in the page linked above), is that the section of the planet that was colder than normal by the largest amount was the continental USA. We have such a short term view in this country. Perhaps the cold October stymied efforts to pass any clean energy legislation through the Senate for the time being.
What can we do? Well, 350.org, the group that sponsored the International Day of Climate Action a few weeks back, is organizing candlelight vigils at Senators’ offices around the country next month. More details can be found here. Why the Senate? Well, despite also working on Healthcare reform, the House was able to pass a (albeit imperfect) bill last summer to address CO2 emissions. The Senate has… stalled the process. But check out the last bullet point above. We have to shrink our CO2 emissions from today’s level. Not just level them, but shrink them, if we are going to have a good chance to limit the damage from global climate change. And the only way to do that is government action. So, unless we all decide to dissolve the Senate, we’re stuck with what we have.
Bill McKibben of 350.org spoke with Grist.org recently about where we are in terms of climate change. The video is below:



3 Comments




Timely. This just announced;
Going to Copenhagen; ‘Mr. Obama will tell the delegates to the climate conference that the United States intends to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions “in the range of 17 percent below 2005 levels,” according to a White House official. ‘
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/25/obama-will-go-to-copenhagen/?hp
Thank you Ruth.
‘Encouraging signals’
De Boer said that there had been “encouraging signals” for the summit in recent days, including a revised pledge by Russia to restrict emissions to 25 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.
The European Union is pushing for a commitment to a cut of 20 per cent, raising the target to 30 pecent in the event of an international agreement, while Japan has offered 25 per cent, but attached conditions.
“But still the aggregate pledges do not match up to the level indicated as necessary by science,” De Boer said. “There is no time to lose.”
Given that the U.S. has increase it’s emissions levels 15 per cent since 1990, the call to reduce emissions by 17-20 per cent of 2005 levels is bullshit.
17-20 per cent from 2005 levels equals 2-5 per cent reduction from 1990 levels, COMPLETELY INADEQUATE RESPONSE TO A GLOBAL PROBLEM !!
There is only one solution and that is for U.S. lifestyles to undergo a radical transformation and the ‘leaders’ of the U.S. are scared to shit of telling the citizens of the situation. And that is consistent and keeping with the robbing of developing nations resources to feed the industrialized nations decadence.