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A Public Policy Polling survey in Maine (conducted October 31-November 1, random digit dial robocalls) shows that Olympia Snowe’s got a real problem with her homies.
She trails generic conservative challenger among the base by 31 to 59 for the 2012 primary. Among conservatives it’s worse: 18 to 75. Among liberals she does well: 57 to 26. Conservatives prefer the Republican Primary by more than 5:1 in the poll among those who say the vote in Primaries.
Olympia’s got a real problem, and the GOP isn’t going to help her solve it. I wonder if she’s looking for a life raft?
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fwiw, chris bowers sez, “Olympia Snowe will join Democratic Senate caucus in, at the most, 945 days“
Interesting post, selise.
I’m of the opinion that if Oly’s going to switch, it’s better done sooner. doG knows the Rabid Right has done enough to push (and Collins, for that matter) away.
i have no opinion (i know, that doesn’t happen very often~ *g*) because i know nothing about the topic, but thought you might be interested in the post.
Based on the numbers, I do have an opinion.
Snowe’s in trouble if she wants another term in the Senate. She’s virtually certain to draw a primary challenger from the Right, and unless things change drastically between now and June of 2012 she will lose that primary.
She will lose for two reasons:
1. She has greater support from liberals than from the Republican base, and that support erodes the support she has left in the Republican base.
2. Primary voters in all parties are heavily drawn from the true believers. Most American voters have not figured out that the primary is at least as important as the general election. They assume the general is the important election, because the winner gets the prize.
The net result is that the folks who will be voting in the Republican primary in Maine in 2012 will be the most conservative of the lot, and Snowe loses that election.
Granted, generic conservatives don’t have the personality quirks of real candidates, but the proper packaging can overcome a lot of that. Basically, the (few) Republicans left who support her are likely to stay home on election day, and she’s gone. Institution or not, it’s going to be very difficult for her to win a Republican primary in this environment. She might win a Democratic primary, though, because she has greater support there than among the GOP base. She’s another example of the Republicans picking up stakes and moving their big tent further and further to the right.
The joker in the deck is her retirement. If she retires, it’s an open seat and that could make for really interesting races in both primaries.