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"NY-09 Turner Election Party" photo: Reid Pillifant at yfrog
By now you’ve probably heard that Anthony Weiner’s seat in a solidly Dem district has been won by a Republican. The Washington Post has it here. They were kinda rough on POTUS, referring to him as an albatross. I know this district very well. I grew up in Queens and belonged to a Dem Club that covered this CD and Gary Ackerman’s CD. This is the area that sent Geraldine Ferraro to Congress (my first Congressional campaign). The main thoroughfare from Kew Garden to Forest Hills is Queens Blvd. There are sections that have park benches and people tend to use them when the weather is warm, such as in the run up to an election.
I remember leafleting along there for a candidate for a local office that did not have any foreign policy roll whatsoever, and all the voters wanted to know about was the candidate’s position on Israel. I assume Ed Koch knows this bit of trivia as well and picked his shot well to make his endorsement of the Republican Turner his way to “send a message” to President Obama about support for Israel. It’s funny, b/c the Dem who lost, David Weprin,is an Orthodox Jew who fully supports Israel, yet he did not receive the endorsement of the Orthodox clergy. He is also the son of a long time Speaker of the Assembly and enjoys great name recognition.
However, I don’t think Israel is really what cost Weprin the election, oddly the Koch gambit may have given the DNC some cover to try to spin the loss. I truly believe that this is solely and completely the result of Dem leadership, primarily at the WH, repeatedly dissing the base and not being stronger on stimulus.
“I am a registered Democrat, I have always been a registered Democrat, I come from a family of Democrats — and I hate to say this, I voted Republican,” said Linda Goldberg, 61, after casting her ballot in Queens. “I need to send a message to the president that he’s not doing a very good job. Our economy is horrible. People are scared.”
This is NYC! The bluest electorate on earth! Being a Dem in Queens is a secular religion for goodness sakes. If you have lost Queens Dems, you have lost the party.
Understand, I’m not an Obama basher. I worked my tail off for him in 2008. I did hundreds of hours of free legal work, writing brief bank points, doing model motion papers, teaching CLE courses to election monitors. I was even his litigation person for NYS on Election Day.
I just don’t know how to break through this bubble of denial, this alternate reality; that the WH, the campaign and the DNC seem to be trapped in. I have been to meetings where folks have tried to tell very high level people in the campaign and DNC that the constant betrayal of the base is a real and dangerous problem. The response is always that confronted with some crazy teabagger from the GOP where else will a Dem vote go? They don’t get it. The Dem vote won’t go to the GOP, it will just stay home.
It’s politics 101, before you worry about picking up swing votes, you first have to nail down and motivate the base. Queens voters have just demonstrated that the base is not coming out.
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OFA: “We suck less!”
Voters: “Not so much.”
Cindy – not just ‘not coming out’ — pissed off. Once people get into the ‘send a message’ format, they will actively vote AGAINST the party.And I think there are a huge number of people who are ready and more than willing to vote AGAINST the party.
That picture was from the stage at Bob Turner’s party:
http://yfrog.com/nz8uyij
but wait, there’s more . . .
Field Poll: Obama Approval Rate in California Dips Below 50%
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/09/14/MN091L45AF.DTL
it wasn’t that long ago eCAHN posted a link showing the same for NY
And, eventually the base just stops listening. This former Obama campaign contributor, volunteer, and voter is deleting the White House campaign email messages unread. Their excuses and “we suck less” arguments just make me madder. So, not only is my current support low, I will be unresponsive as the campaign unfolds.
It seems that national media polls are finally reflecting what Progressive bloggers have known for some time. The “Democratic” base isn’t going to show up in 2012, and Obama has no one to blame but his own Right Wing policies. Screw Obama and the “Democratic” Party.
OFA is a joke.
Progressives need to start DARRBO (Democrats Against the Re-election of the Republican Barack Obama).
The crap Obama is doing to the poor and elderly borders on depraved cruelty. And his abject subservience to the super rich is beyond sickening. It’s hard to decide whether he’s Caligula or Nero.
I believe that is and was Obama’s plan.
Run as a progressive, move to the right, deliver what his campaign sponsors wanted, then act as a spoiler for the 2012 election, and leave the White House with a big “FU, I’ve got mine” and a fortune.
He enter the White House with a secret agenda, and he’s executing it.
It’s either incomprehensibly stupid or deliberate. Deliberate appears most probable.
I believe Obama is a empty shell poll driven politician that believes in nothing. Unfortunately for Obama(and all poll politicians) we have real problems that demand leadership and solutions. Governing by polls or “within the limits of Republican dogma” does not work and only increases our problems.
Oh, I always find it helps my mood to actually “respond” to these little missives with a brief list of the “Greatest Hits,” or reasons I won’t be supporting or voting for Obama. (a complete list would take pages.)
Yes, I know the recipients at OFA or the DNC don’t really care, but perhaps the lowly college student opening the mail (because he/she can’t find a job and mistakenly thinks a stint in the Obama campaign will look good on a resume) will have his/her eyes opened a bit.
And, if we’re VERY lucky, the tally of responses will include a category of “insulting comments.”
PS – thanks for this. It really is useful to have an actual “report from the ground,” rather than the DNC or media spin.
yet more . . .
from Cynthia’s post:
“… said Linda Goldberg, 61, after casting her ballot in Queens. “I need to send a message to the president that he’s not doing a very good job. Our economy is horrible. People are scared.”
and from my link:
“Three years into his presidency, he still has not shown a clear path out of the economic situation we’re in,” Del Beccaro said. “People are tired of hearing his excuses – it’s Bush’s fault, it’s the Japanese earthquake. He’s not seen as very presidential.”
two different quotes from two different coasts expressing the exact same sentiment
General Quarters should be going off big time at Obama 2012 HQ – and instead the re elect spox (in the SFGate link) spews the kumbaya shit that got them here in the first place
He is clearly not a leader…and to be a leader you have to have some core beliefs.
Obama does not have any or if he does his core is more conservative than progressive.
It may be that he’s not concerned about 2012 at all.
When someone repeatedly and continually goes along on everything with someone else whom they ‘claim’ to be opposing, it’s not caving.
It’s the plan. The intentional plan.
Obama has done everything he could possibly do to enable republicans every step of the way the past 2 1/2 years, and it now seems that his ultimate goal is to give them the white house next year too, and himself a nice well paying job with a corner office and a chauffeured limo on wall street.
Months ago I concluded that “Democrats”, Progressives, and Americans would be better off with any Republican(including Palin or Bachmann) than Obama. Everything since then has only confirmed my conclusion. Obama is a leader but he is leading the “Democratic” party into an oblivion with his Right Wing policies. We must Primary and/or defeat Obama and extinguish the DLC Blue Dog Conservative Democratic philosophy for ever. They are Republicans lite.
That IS kinda how these meetings go
Yeah, but upstate NYS can be pretty redstate. So losing the state, while super sucky since NYS is reliebly blue, is NOTHING compared to losing Queens Dems.
It’s almost as shocking as losing Manhattan Dems
I’m with ya sister ! — spent a year in Kew Gardens long ago in a lifetime far,far away
Yes, that seems clear.
It’s the simplest explanation that fits the facts.
hey Cynthia !
from my Field Poll link above:
“What’s sinking him is that most of the decline is among people of his own party and the nonpartisans.”
as if you or anyone else here needed further evidence
I disagree. If you look at his career, even when he was on Harvard Law Review, this was not a guy who rocked the boat or shook things up, other than by breaking color barriers.
He’s apparently lived his entire adult life being pleasent and trying to accomidate the wishes of others, and treating all views as worthy of consideration.
Which is probably a good thing in a college professor (though not my method when I was teaching–I like Socratic Method), but probably not the best way for the Leader of the Free World to get things done.
It also may explain his ear to ear grin. He must have a hard time not bursting out laughing.
Yep, if only he and the OFA would wake up to that and change course.
I think you just said the same thing I did, actually….
I agree.
Barry Obama is and I will repeat this one more time, a Harvard trained mid-western “white” ( on the inside) Republican Corp. lawyer. His flip-side is his election persona Barack Obama black Chicago community organizer. Barry the Republican is the one running the show in the WH for his Big Corp. clients like the Wall st. banksters and other paying customers. Barry is all about business 1st and the voters 457th every 4 yrs.
OFA- ONLY FOR ASSHOLES!
Very apt acronym.
I think it’s part of the Black Boy Goes To Ivy League School Syndrome. I saw this scenario repeat itself over and over while I was at Yale. High ideals coming in— going along to get along going out. The last thing you wanted to do was draw attention to yourself or be labeled “angry”, “not a team player” “got a chip on his shoulder”. These are all code for don’t rock the boat Negro or we’ll throw your ass out. Women were affected, too. But since we are not viewed as threatening to the white establishment (or their women), it wasn’t as prominent. Just my opinion. Obama still stinks as a leader.
No Mr.President we will not eat our Peas. We have sit here at the table of prosperity from the beginning and watch your Administration give your guest like Big Banks, Hedge Fund mangers , military industrial complex , Big Pharma and the Republicans all the choice parts of Economy. No, thank you, May we be excuse. We will go back to our homes . We will not be coming out at election time for another helping of peas.
wished a thousand times since I had bookmarked it – but a few years back I read a lengthy piece written about his campaign for heading the Harvard Law Review
the article was a post mortem detailing his throwing the women/minority coalition under the bus and actively courting the conservative vote – the article was riddled with reluctance on the part of the fuckee’s to bad mouth the first AA head of the HLR — but fucked they were
Obama is a big phony. Period.
Pissing off your base repeatedly will lose elections. Also, not standing up for Anthony Weiner didn’t help either. What he did wasn’t that horrific compared to some other politicos, but the Dems threw him under the bus immediately.
Now they’ve lost his seat. Obama is becoming an albatross.
Obama had no problems attacking his fellow Democrats ever since he declared his candidacy.
With respect to the Democratic Party politicians and Obama, the “lesser evil” is in reality the more effective evil which makes it actually the greater evil.
For a backdrop against which to view and evaluate his more recent ‘actions’ here’s a quote from ‘Senator’ Obama in 2008:
He tried to straddle the whole spectrum from free market fanatic to socialist DFH in one or maybe only two breaths in that speech.
What’s that old saw about trying to please everyone, again?
Great post Cynthia.
I am one of them who may vote republican, first time ever. I won’t stay home, If I’m going to get screwed it might as well be from the other party. And I feel a strong need to tell my party that. The thing for me is, BO is not doing a “bad job” because of his inexperience, he is acting like a republican.
I don’t know about his own private agenda, but I don’t think you can say that he really worked on treating all views as worthy of consideration and on accomodating others generically. I think his history was more one of working to make nice with conservatives and conservative interests and he’s never had much of that aspect on liberal interests. IIRC, when, after ignoring them forever, Obama did finally make a pretense of a WH meeting with Krugman, Stiglitz et al, his reaction was not that they had views to be accomdated or that were worthy of consideration, but rather that they were sanctimonious sobs for not agreeing with him. And his fondness for Rahm isn’t born of an accomodating nature that has a wide open mind on considering opposing views. I think he’s become just as much a bubble boy as Bush ever was.
I actually think it may all be because he decided part way through (maybe even before elections) that, like Bush, the job really was too hard for him, so he has just surrounded himself with his inner circle to bolster his ego and is waiting it out until he can leave office. And I think he has a daddy fixation with Republicans. In any event, his pathway seems to be – don’t bother the banksters, the torturers, big pharma, the healthcare industry – - the only things that have been done strongly and directly have been things where the CIA has a vested interest. He played tough on getting Raymond Davis released, he immediately created a talking point (something he hasn’t done on most policy issues) for non-prosecution of prior Exec branch crimes (look forward, not back)
After Obama, I don’t fear a Bachman Presidency that much. She’ll end up owned by the same interests he’s owned by and the Dems will at least have to put up some minimal token fights, so that the sound system of the nation isn’t completely taken over by Obamaright and harderright without break. But he deliberately ran out statutes of limitation and has been flat out vicious with whistleblowers – worse than Bush was. He’s not been very accomodating of other interests there, either.
He’s a complete lackey to the military and cia and his sole purpose in office has been to attack common sense and, by changing what was even “on the table” to move things further and further right. His lack of effort and concern on the judicial front (other than putting an insider crony of his on the bench – something Bush could no pull off) means that he will be more responsible for preserving Bush’s legacy than Bush was. The courts have a lifetime of rightwing extremism that can legitimately be laid at his door and he’s made sure that the DOJ is a haven for polawticians who will lie to courts and lie down readily and greedily with felons, fraudsters, torturers and assassains, all in pursuit of career advancement; and all ready to defend the inner circle even at the cost of the national soul and integrity.
Actually, I got a much better response from Rand Paul than I have from any Democrat in office on the Executive branch domestic spying and fourth amendment violations front. How sad is that?
recommended and tweeted
thanks for sharing Cynthia.
You tell the truth, but the newspeak munchkins will twist it into to reinforce their own preconceived notions and use it for yet another piece of disinformation to throw at the American public.
The Republicans took over the House in 2010 because the Democratic base has been disenfranchised–the same reason the Republicans took over both houses during Clinton’s midterms: Clinton dissed labor and the working people with his NAFTA.
But you know what? They don’t really give much of a damn. They prefer to have a scape goat to blame and they can as long as there is a narrow majority–at least the Democrats do because they have to maintain the pretense that they represent the working people.
The Republicans, as you may have noticed don’t even bother to pretend. They don’t give a damn and they don’t try to hide it. They laugh out loud and cheer at their presidential debates when someone speaks of a person being left to die because they have no health care. They don’t even pretend to care.
The Democrats in Congress put on the show of pretending to care, but you only need to look at their votes to see how much they don’t care.
Wow! Thank you so much, Cynthia.
PBS did a BO bio, aired two weeks before the 2008 election, that included what you describe. Once elected, BO put right wingers into official positions at the HLR, dashing the expectation of the liberals and AAs who voted for him. I think it might have been an episode of Frontline.
can’t tell which comment you are disagreeing with. possible link-back bug.
Some numbers:
In 2006 Weiner ran unopposed and got 71,762 votes.
In 2008 Weiner got 102,561 votes. Lots of people came out to vote for change.
In 2010 Weiner got 67,011, Turner got 43,129. The 2008 surge disappeared. Did registered Republicans decide to vote?
In 2011 Weprin got 27,460 and Turner got 32,212. Turner won even though he got about 25% fewer votes than he did ten months earlier. In the same period votes for the Democratic candidate dropped by 59%. The Dem vote drop from 2008 to 2011 was 73%.
73%!! The Democrats think that they will win with liberals who have “no where else to go” and independents, but these numbers suggest that both groups are staying home.
2012 is therefore a great opportunity for a progressive third party.
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Who abandoned his base?
George Bush? Ho did not abandon his base.
Barack Obama? He did not abandon his base either.
They both have the same base. Money- big money.
So now people talk of NOT VOTING or voting Republican to “show them.” That is exactly what they want.
What they do not want is people getting active in say the Rocky Anderson campaign for president. Which will only happen if we actually have one. Which will only happen if people show up and build one.
You will have to work to bust out of the veal pen. Or you can stay and complain about how bad things are. I plan to work. How about you all?
agree completely. too many trad-dem voters continue to drink the Kool Aid that, somehow, Obama remains the “lesser” of two evils. I agree that, in fact, Obama is the greater of two evils bc Obama is succeeding into fooling a hefty swath of trad-dem voters that someone he (Obama) is still the Dem-voters’ friend. Most emphatically Obama is NOT our “friend,” nor is Obama making the slightest effort to truly represent us or our better interests.
I agree. Not voting or voting for TeaPublicans (unless that’s who you really want to win) is not the solution. The answer is to vote for a third party candidate. I don’t know anything about Mr. Anderson, but I’m sure Mr. Anderson is worth investigating and considering.
Vote Third Party. Don’t sit out the elections. That’s what the PTB want. Don’t give in to them.
I agree. It’s all very well to say that as an AA, Obama doesn’t want to rock the boat & all that kind of stuff. I know that definitely DOES happen for AA’s who rise up in certain organizations, but that said, Obama hasn’t had one little iota of a problem dissing me and all other Democratic politicians and even wealthy Dem contributors.
So I really cannot “buy” that theory as an explanation for why Obama behaves the way he does. I think Obama has a ton more “spine” than most citizens give him credit for. It’s just that he uses his “spine” to do what his real constituents want… you know, the upper 1% & the MIC. For them, Obama has spine a-plenty… but they pay Obama very well for services rendered…
I think it’s mostly about money, frankly…
Nicely done. Thanks. I doubt anyone in the White House believes these stats are applicable for November 2012. They are blaming the candidate and the lack of a Presidential election year surge. The White House believes they just need to raise enough Corp. money and blame GWB and Republicans for all that is wrong. We are so screwed either way. Sophie’s choice – Obama or a Republican. I’d rather have the Republican and Congressional Democrats in opposition.
onitgoes
check out the Rocky Anderson interview on the Ron Decker show 6/26/2011
I can’t find it on you tube (odd that) but if you search firedoglake credible threat Obama, it is there, in the comments
section. He may not be 100% perfect (he does not call Obama a war criminal) but he is the best we have right now.
Abandoning your base is bad political strategy. Abandoning your base and spitting at them is depraved.
PS When your base owns all the good, sound policy positions, abandoning and spitting at them ends in catastrophe. For the country. For the world. For the earth.
Worse, Obama is actually acting as the Republican he would have been had the R party been more welcoming to blacks in IL.
He chose to be a Dem in order to be elected, not, it now seems perfectly clear, to work to implement and strengthen the principles of the Democratic Party. As we knew it before it became a fully owned subsidary of Wall Street and Big Money.
I agree…but what amazes me is how many people seem unaware that a write-in vote is possible and unaware of how to do it. They seem to think that the only choices they have are the tweedledee-tweedledum options that the uniparty presents to them.
“I’d rather have the Republican and Congressional Democrats in opposition.”
I agree – plus a few loud-mouthed third party folks to put good ideas in the limelight. [assuming that someone still uses "limelight"!]
I must add to my post above a comment that the increase in stay-at-homers is noteworthy: The drop in vote totals for Democrats/DINOs from 2008 to 2010 was about 45%, but from 2008 to 2011, after the extension of Bush/Obama tax cuts and the revelation of BO’s desire to dismantle the safety net, the drop is 73%.
The Dems may just be suffering from Beltway Bubblethink, but I find it hard to believe that they can’t see in the numbers the same things that are obvious to us. That suggests that the Democratic leadership and BO know exactly what they are doing and are doing it intentionally.
“What’s sinking him is that most of the decline is among people of his own party and the nonpartisans.”
In other words, “What’s sinking him is that most of the decline is in EVERYONE EXCEPT REPUBLICANS.”
If the Democrats and the independents are alienated who does he expect to vote for him – the Republicans??
Well, yes, that is his target group, “moderate” Republicans who want Romney instead of Bachmann.
So there you have the 2012 election: The Tea Party Republicans nominate Perry/Bachmann and BO appeals to moderate Republican voters for support, while progressives, liberals, Democrats, and independents stay home.
I believe Obama is a dedicated Fascist. He has certainly done everything he could to advance a Fascist agenda. His only hope is fear of the big, bad, Republicans, but even that is hard to present when he puts forth a health care plan, a tax plan, a jobs plan, and a foreign policy that are essentially Republican in nature.
It is no surprise that intelligent progressives of all stripes, including New Deal Democrats, are asking themselves “What is the difference between the Democratic and Republican Parties?” and getting the answer: None whatsoever.
The current Democratic Party is a corporatist mutation that must be destroyed.
It seems to me that voting Republican says only one thing: “I support Republicans.” It says – with none of the nuances that you mention – that if Democrats want your vote, they have to behave more like the party that did in fact get your vote, the Republicans. If, on the other hand, you want to tell the Dems that your preferences are progressive, the best way to convey that is to vote for a progressive or write in the name of a progressive.
I don’t know why his epic fail is a surprise to anyone
This has been true for at least two years
Theres the gay marriage issue for Orthodox Jews and Israel, then SS/Medicare, deficit histeria, jobs/economy.
Does anyone really care if he disses us if we get what we want? Jamie Dimon doesn’t seem to mind.
Here’s another article at the daily beast that says it’s SS and medicare, he links to dave weigel. What do you think about this?
http://t.co/fZXqAwYx
WH spokesman Jay Carney sees NY-9 glass as half full
Head in the Sand? WH Reacts to NY-9 and Bad Polling on President’s Jobs Proposal
Vote third party from the left. If Democrats lose, those who run the party will just claim Obama wasn’t appealing to the right enough. Your vote for a Republican, or right of center third party, will only help them make that argument.
They won’t acknowledge a third party from the left except to blame them for the loss, as if they’re an outside force taking what is rightfully theirs, not that the existence and strength of the party is a result of Democrats moving so far right (see 2000). However, a growing 3rd party will give hope to other Americans that they’re not alone in their disappointment in both parties (from the left).
scott brown – 800000 stayed home and Obama crowd said bad candidate and local issues (The lady AG did not do enough town halls and the state turned anti democrat for this election)
now they say again “local issues” and bad candidate (Israel worries and gay rights yes vote – and candidate had facial hair that turned off voters)
Obama will not stop with the right wing tear down of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and prevent Clinton tax rates from coming back – indeed because Hillary said no more NAFTA treaties, Obama will be the opposite of Hillary and do more NAFTA treaties.
The Gentleman has ego issues.