Paul Gilding on The TED channel says “The earth is full”. That we have run out of……..nearly everything. That growth is unsustainable. And when we can no longer grow, civilization collapses.
People say we need this, that growth is essential to the survival of our civilization. It’s so central that the idea itself is never questioned. Gilding is fascinated by argument that “We can bend the rules of physics to suit our needs.” In the face of the possibility that unrestrained growth will strain resources to exhaustion, people claim that without growth the world is in trouble, therefore everything will be fine.
But the truth is, ”The planet doesn’t care what we need. Mother nature doesn’t negotiate.” These are not esoteric limits, they’re about food and water and basic needs. The idea that we can transition smoothly, that growth and economics as we know them will innovate the problems away, that we can gently move to a system at 100% of the Earth’s capacity is, says Gilding, a delusion. The idea that we’ll heed the warnings would make sense, but we’ve had 50 years of warnings, and what has happened? Last year there were more carbon emissions than ever in history. We know that the eventual cost will be cheaper the earlier we act, and yet we’ve never acted, “We’re not even slowing down.”
So here is his talk
And as he says we need to act like we have only one planet. Because that is all we have.



12 Comments

Not sure I agree with his optimism but do agree that humans do not act until forced to by circumstances. But this is a dangerous way to deal with bad situations.
His reliance on human cleverness I believe are off base though. I do not believe we will be able to forestall the inevitable. That clawing our way back will take many many generations.
I hereby volunteer to be the first human to exit this solar system!
I call “shotgun”!
Z
The global depression actually bought us an extra year and a half, as the worldwide factory shutdown did a good job of stopping carbon emissions. China took advantage of the break to retool or permanently close the worst of the old “iron rice bowl” facilities, and is now ramping up their use of wind and solar.
Thank you for that, PW. I am despairing, and tend to agree with cmaukonen.
The problem I have with the optimism is that the vast majority of our time, effort and resources are being put towards funky new techno-toys and better ways to kill each other off.
The better ways to kill each other off would help solve the problem but we can’t even seem to do that very well. /snark
Thank you for this, cmaukonen. I couldn’t help wonder how many in that audience were hearing this for the “first time”? How many heard his words, and were moved into viewing things in a different way? How many upon got into their cars and on the drive home had a different conversation about the state of things we are dealing with?
I have no answers to such questions, but if were sitting in a chair listening to someone tell me about our dire straights, and if this were the first I had heard of it, or the first time some dots got connected, I would need his words of hopefulness too. Without a degree of hopefulness, I would have a harder time swallowing the whole of it.
So, maybe, despite my own days of despair, and frustrating impatience, perhaps this talk had effects beyond what “our ears” would need to hear.
Again, thank you for bringing it to our attention. I am going to forward the link to a few I suspect are ready to hear what he has to say.
The system will self-correct. The present population and technology boom is an anomaly enabled by the rapid draw down of geologic hydrocarbon reserves, a classic bubble. It was never sustainable.
That said the future for the surviving humans post boom will probably be somewhat better overall than it was for our antecedents of centuries ago as there have been some technologies that will still function in the post-bubble reality that are unlikely to be unlearnt entirely.
I have to admit that the first time that I heard how bad things were – from Dmitri Orlov – I was a wee bit shocked myself. But truth be told I felt that things were getting serious screwed up sometime in the late 1970s.
LOL. 1970′s was a bad decade when it came to my “innocence” with regards to how things were going.
I am still appalled to find myself surrounded by such frothy ignorance. Kinda glad it was back in the ’70′s that I realized what was ahead. I guess too, I feel really bad for those just figuring it out now, when things are so very dire.
As I talk with people, I really do attempt to gentle things along. To present facts, of course, but also not to alarm. Maybe it is only me, but if I were in their shoes, I would need humor – lots of humor – thrown in with hope. Or the risk of being totally overwhelmed would render me bedridden.
I am glad that I have a bit of experience juggling this … um… unraveling.
please peeps,dont get sick
http://grist.org/list/oil-execs-get-monster-raises-after-a-very-strong-2011/
this has to end….how can we do it?
Long ago us boomers as young teens had Paul Erlich’s ‘Population Bomb’ to shock and awe. This population v. finite resources thang is not new.
However, I noticed that as time passed, much of the real concerns of the issue were often usurped in the slightest of ways by those who favored eugenics based racist points of view.
So, I’m always REAL hesitant to comment much about population controls, voluntary or not so voluntary (mama nature WILL balance things one way or another).
One thing is certain, NOTHING is permanently sustainable, sooner or later the sun will either nova or just burn out.
The next hundred years or so tho, are gonna be really exciting . . . wish I was gonna last another hunnert to see it all . . . gonna be a lot of hurt, dying, pain and suffering, but it will be interesting to see what’s next for us hoomanz as the 1% and their empire collapse world wide . . . and resources dwindle, rapidly.