As Siun had pointed out on Monday in Not So Sectarian Iraq, there appears to be a seismic shift occurring within the Iraqi populace away from the sectarian politics that Shrub and Bremer installed, and, the GZG perpetuated to a professional, secular form of governance.

Badger has several posts highlighting the new realities facing Maliki and the Powers That Be…

Tareq alHashemi, vice president of the republic and head of the Islamic Party of Iraq, said recently he would be prepared to relinquish his post in the government and urge other party members to do the same, if the other parties would agree to a thorough restructuring of the government along non-sectarian lines. This election-oriented and completely impractical idea of renouncing–at this late date–the sectarian-allocation system that brought his party to power, is now being imitated by none other than Prime Minister Maliki himself. In a speech to tribal supporters at a football stadium near Karbala, Maliki congratulated himself on the "miraculous" improvements in security during his tenure, but at the same time criticized the narrow and sectarian political system that has been in place since 2003. IraqAlaan summarizes the talk this way:

[Maliki] described the accomplishments of the last two years in the security area as "miraculous", but he criticized the current political system for its lack of a just allocation of posts on the basis of real qualifications. Speaking to a group of tribal Sheikhs in Karbala on Wednesday at the start of Eid al Adha on the Shiite calendar, Maliki criticized the political system because of its "failure to distribute jobs and appointments on the basis of qualifications". He said "qualifications are not valued, as long as this reality persists," adding: "We have been forced to adopt this system, and I will not say any more than that."

In other words, Maliki is indicating he will be running against the system of sectarian and ethnic quotas that was introduced by Bremer following the American invasion.

In another post, Badger continued…

Faisal alRubiae, writing in the Qatari paper AlArab, explains what is behind this unprecedented wave of anti-sectarian rhetoric from Maliki, Hashemi and other big names in the "political process". He says you need to put this in the context of the provincial-council elections planned for end-January, and more importantly pay attention to an important shift in the whole tenor of popular opinion about politics.

Because opinion polls and other efforts to take the pulse of Iraqi public opinion demonstrate very clearly today the fact that there is an amazing change going on in the popular political climate: simply stated, what has become dominant is the rejection of parties that are religious and "sectarian", Shia and Sunni alike, and this has triggered concern in influential circles [in the ruling parties] who no longer doubt that the Iraqi elector will vote in the coming elections for secular parties in defiance [or at the expense] of the religious and sectarian parties.

So that is his first point, namely that there has been a sea-change in Iraqi attitudes to the sect-dominated "political process", and the big governing parties themselves have become aware of the threat.

And he says this is what explains a number of recent political dramas. For instance:

Moreover, the continuing latent struggle between the Dawa Party and the Supreme Council over the tribal "support councils" that have been formed by the government is merely one expression of the degree of panic about ascendency of the "secularists in the regions of the South", and as part of that, the fear that the Dawa Party–without the Supreme Council–could get a majority [in local councils] in the event that votes are cast in favor of the secularists and the liberals. [He seems to be saying either that a secular/liberal trend would hurt the Supreme Council more than it would hurt the Dawa, or else that it might actually help the Dawa, via the "support councils".]

The same thing is happening among the Sunni parties:

This is the same fear that has driven Sunni entities to declare the "crisis of the quota system". [These are the Sunni parties that] called themselves "representatives of the Sunni people" and agreed to the establishment of this system on a sectarian basis, in fact they insisted on its being necessary and vital, for instance when they passed the constitution in exchange for a promise that some of its clauses would be altered in a matter of months….

The Islamic Party, and the Accord Front generally, are facing not only the problems of the Shiite religious parties in the face of this resurgence of secularism, but also an additional problem: To the extent they preach the "crisis of the sectarian allocation system" and nothing is done, supposing they do poorly in the proincial elections, they risk losing what little influence they do have in the ruling setup. And they don’t know what secular movements in the Sunni community could arise to take their place.

Ladybird chimes in as well…

In his meeting with tribal leaders [which became Maliki's weekly ritual], Maliki said the following:

Official governmental posts must based on efficiency and not according sectarian or ethnic interests.

Sounds nice but the same thing said by the Islamic Party few days rejected by the Kurds and the Supreme Council.

Head of the Islamic Party Al-Hashmi offered to step down and reform the political process based on national interest.

“Election stunt” says Iraqi writer Fadhil Al-Rubai, Islamists and religious parties are losing ground and they are scoring very low among Iraqi voters, the major political blocs acknowledge this.

The hidden, ongoing conflict with Dawa Party led by Maliki and the Supreme Islamic Council, led by Hakim, on the “Tribal Councils”, is just one example of the panic level of the rise of “secularism” in the southern provinces.

The same fear forced the Sunni blocs to admit the dilemma of the “Sectarian system”, those who call themselves “Sunni representative” themselves participated in the establishment of this system.

Al-Rubai says that the Provincial election will put the first brick in the new kind alliances and probably unexpected allinces because politics is not only the game of the powerful blocs, it is the game of the losers also.

To confirm Al-Rubai essay, Al-Wasat reported that power parties in the south of Iraq are paying $100 for each vote and makes the people swear on the Quran to vote for the party.

So how do the supposed ‘experts’ respond?

Iraqi political outlook grim, scholar says

The growing sentiment that the mission in Iraq has succeeded with the passage of a bilateral security accord with Washington is misplaced, a scholar says.[...]

Kenneth Pollack, an Iraq analyst with the Brookings Institution, told the Council on Foreign Relations that Iraq is far from stable. Despite positive gains in the security environment, the political scenario in Baghdad remains tense as power is becoming increasingly centralized around Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

"There are people who believe that he deliberately intends to make himself a dictator," Pollack said.

Meanwhile, Maliki is looking to court his former foes, the Sadrist Movement of Moqtada Sadr, in an effort to sideline the influential Shiite party the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which in turn is looking to solidify its base by backing Kurdish interests in the country.

Both groups are looking to consolidate their power as Iraq prepares for provincial elections in January, which could redefine the balance of power in the country.

"The next year or 18 months is going to be absolutely critical for the development of Iraqi politics," Pollack cautioned.

It is truly fascinating how he can be both right and wrong at the same time…