CBS’s Holly Williams filed this report today…
…In a new video, men crouching against a wall are about to be killed by an angry mob. Syrian opposition groups said the men who died were members of a family with links to the Assad regime.
The killers were rebels fighting in an increasingly chaotic conflict.
Human rights groups — as well as the rebels’ own leadership — condemned the deaths as summary executions.
However, in a sprawling refugee camp on the Syria-Turkey border, Syrian refugees defended the killings. Many of the men there are rebel fighters.
“If we had a state, we could have taken those men to court,” said Mohammad Hajhasan through a translator. “But we’re in the middle of a revolution, and they were war criminals.” {…}
“We want a democracy in Syria,” Mohammad said. “But only if it’s within an Islamic state.”
Others disagree. Jamil Saeb, who led protests in Syria in the early days, said he wants a Western-style democracy, and claimed the uprising is being hijacked by Islamic extremists.
“The West isn’t doing enough, and other countries like Saudi Arabia are pushing their Islamic agenda by giving the rebels financial support,” Saeb said.
The Syrian opposition is divided, and there are fears that if and when the Assad regime falls there’ll be continued violence between rival factions…
I really do have to hand it to Faux Spew to actually post the most honest headline I’ve seen today…
With diplomacy dead, US banks on Syrian rebel win
…With Syrian diplomacy all but dead, the Obama administration is shifting its focus on the civil war away from political transition and toward helping the rebels defeat the Syrian regime on the battlefield…
…It’s a scenario analysts see as unlikely, even as the opposition gains ground in Aleppo, Damascus and elsewhere, and as the cadre of high-level defections from Assad’s government grows. Prime Minister Riad Hijab and two other ministers became the latest to abandon Assad on Monday, rebels said.
The defections are “the latest indication that Assad has lost control of Syria and that the momentum is with the opposition forces and the Syrian people,” White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said.
“The regime is crumbling,” State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said. {…}
…Ventrell said the goal of much of the recent diplomacy was to help the opposition come up with a post-Assad plan that would be as cohesive as possible…
…The approach is one that American officials liken to a “soft landing.” The goal would be to avoid the power vacuum of post-Saddam Hussein’s Iraq by salvaging as many elements of the state as possible, and avoiding new insurgencies from emerging.
“We want to get there in a way that’s a softer landing,” a U.S. official said on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter. “We don’t want to see the institutions just melt away.”
Btw, folks, lets remember the long standing fact that Oily Bomber, nor even Shrillary, at Foggy Bottom nor any other foreign locales, have not once sat in the same room, much less, talk to anybody even remotely related to the Assad regime…! Just like the failed single roll of the dice that Oily Bomber had gambled on with the Iranians…!
What seems to be the problem with even talking to our supposed Adversaries…? I do seem to recall a ‘hotline’ that we’d set up between the Kremlin and the White House, and was manned 24/7…! What ever happened to even that semblance of old-fashioned Diplomacy…?
Here’s some other analysis from the disaffected ‘populations’ I’d seen today…
Obama brings Erdogan in to bat..
Here’s an excellent synopsis of the ever enigmatic Kurdish Question…!
And, it should be noted that Pepe Escobar, once again, cuts to the quick…
This is a war of deals, not bullets
Deep beneath “Damascus volcano” and “the battle of Aleppo,” the tectonic plates of the global energy chessboard keep on rumbling. Beyond the tragedy and grief of civil war, Syria is also a Pipelineistan power play.
More than a year ago, a $10 billion Pipelineistan deal was clinched between Iran, Iraq and Syria for a natural gas pipeline to be built by 2016 from Iran’s giant South Pars field, traversing Iraq and Syria, with a possible extension to Lebanon. Key export target market: Europe.
During the past 12 months, with Syria plunged into civil war, there was no pipeline talk. Up until now. The European Union’s supreme paranoia is to become a hostage of Russia’s Gazprom. The Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline would be essential to diversify Europe’s energy supplies away from Russia.
It gets more complicated. Turkey happens to be Gazprom’s second-largest customer. The whole Turkish energy security architecture depends on gas from Russia — and Iran. Turkey dreams of becoming the new China, configuring Anatolia as the ultimate Pipelineistan strategic crossroads for the export of Russian, Caspian-Central Asian, Iraqi and Iranian oil and gas to Europe.
Try to bypass Ankara in this game, and you’re in trouble. Until virtually yesterday, Ankara was advising Damascus to reform — and fast. Turkey did not want chaos in Syria. Now Turkey is feeding chaos in Syria…
Seriously, Wtf, over…? *gah*



31 Comments

We’d best pay attention to the geopolitical schisms arising… India begins Rupee payment for Iran oil…
Comprador, mercenary, terrorist … The pay’s good and somebody’s got to do it.
I wouldn’t agree that the government is crumbling although it may very well be that Assad’s presidency is. The Ba’ath from everything I’m hearing still have a firm grip on the institutions of state. I think it’s more accurate to say that this is a civil war in which the factions have outside support. Such wars tend to last a long time, Lebanon’s one went on for 15½ years.
As to the Syrian Kurds Ctut you might find that the entirety of this article is worth reading:
Syria’s Kurds play the long game
mfi
Interesting information, Ctut. Just adds to the complexity of this situation.
I agree with markfromireland that the Ba’ath regime is not as much in trouble as Assad himself. But I think that the situation has moved beyond the point at which the Ba’ath regime could re-establish order by dumping Assad and opening up multi-party talks. They made this fundamental misjudgement a year ago.
I don’t think the pipeline issue with Turkey is as signficant as Pepe Escobar makes it seem. European demand is such that there could be multiple pipelines supplying it. And pipeline politics would dictate that Turkey come to a rapid accommodation with the Kurds to permit a second pipeline to be built for South Pars natural gas through Iraq and Turkey.
IMO Turkey’s shift in policy towards Syria is directly related to the number of refugees that Turkey has had to absorb, which turns an international problem into a domestic problem.
What your diary does point to is the extent to which rapid deployment of alternative energy production in the region, and in Turkey especially, could have a stabilizing effect. Even if the West does not pursue the same course.
We really want know whether the uprising has been hijacked by extremists until the dust settles and a new regime is in place, even if that regime is a slightly transformed Ba’ath regime. And the disposition of Kurdistan seems to be an issue emerging out of these events.
Exactly the point I have been making for over a year. The era of the US as the sole superpower with ability to inevitably work its will ended the moment that Osama bin Laden escaped for Tora Bora and accelerated in the early moments of shock and awe against Baghdad.
The tectonic shifts to watch is the evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a counterbalance to NATO — and how India relates to the SCO. Needless to say the boundary dispute with China is a key irritant there.
India has always been non-aligned. It is a large enough country to go its own way. And India has significant influence with the nations that used to be called the “non-aligned movement” during the Cold War. It is also a major trading partner with Iran.
Turkey’s attack on Syria began long before there were many refugees.
There is still a NAM & it is meeting in Iran mid August.
You all have probably seen this piece that was in the Times a few days ago, and I have no idea how accurate it is, but I was really surprised to see the change in conversation, including Saudi money, and Saudis helping put down the Shia resistance in Bahrain etc.
‘Syrian Crumbling Pluralism’, but no mention of Kurds. (Your link, mfi, was pretty confusing to a novice.)
Thanks for the update.
Some rank Hypocrisy… Clinton warns of “proxies, terrorists” coming to Syria…
…U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday that the crisis in Syria must not be allowed to descend into sectarian warfare and she warned against “proxies or terrorist fighters” being sent in to join the conflict.
“We have to send very clear expectations about avoiding sectarian warfare. Those who are attempting to exploit the situation by sending in proxies or terrorist fighters must realize that will not be tolerated,” Clinton said at a news conference in the South African capital Pretoria.
*aargh*
Mahalo, Gor…! I’ve read that article before, I regularly read Kurd Net to keep up on Kurdish affairs…! ;-)
Not just the SCO, Tarheel, but the BRICS too…!
Hey, when’s Shrillary going to flash the ole lizard eye?
Ctut I presume you’ve seen this Reuters roundup report? The meat is in the section headed "REBEL AMMUNITION":
Source: Iran backs Assad as Syrian forces choke off Aleppo | Reuters
If (as I suspect they will) the Syrian army win the forthcoming Battle of Allepo then it’s a bit premature to write their obituary. Winning this round will give them the wherewithal to entrench for at least a few years.
mfi
Not the Ba’ath style. The Ba’ath are very good at mounting coups and very good at violent, often very violent political suppression what you call a “fundamental misjudgement” they call standard operating procedure. I haven’t forgotten Assad père, nobody whose seen what’s left of Hama will ever forget Hafez al-Assad. I don’t think Assad fils has the same level of iron willed ferocity as his father but plenty of the Syrian high command do.
I think the Ba’ath plan to crush the rebellion and then after a suitable period put in some superficial reforms. They’ll also promise not to go after the families of their opponents only the opponents themselves. Based on past experience of their SOP under Hafez al-Assad my guess is that that’s a promise they’ll keep. It’s worked for them before, whether it will again is another matter, but my guess is that this is along the lines of what they’re planning on doing.
mfi
Interesting, I did not know that the BRICS countries had formalized an organization. More Chinese diplomacy. I guess it is the counterpoint to the G7.
Good point. It all depends on whether they overreached on suppression this time. I think that Bashir’s iron deficit was read by some folks as reformist tendencies. I have long suspected his role was primarily symbolic and that the Ba’ath oligarchy were pulling the strings.
Failure to institute meaningful reforms will eventually catch up with them.
Col. Lang really nailed it today in two posts, Gor…
Positioning the force at Aleppo…
…As I expected the Syrian government is systematically sealing off the city of Aleppo as it brings up reinforcements. If this is in preparation for an eventual assault to clear the rebel held parts of the town, then that is probably a winning method. The rebels are running short of ammunition and food. High rebel casualties will be a major benefit for the government. There are a lot of Sunni young people arriving to join the FSA but they will be a hindrance rather than an asset in the short term until they can be trained.
None of this means that the Assad government will last forever, but the odds are improving that it will be around for a number of years. pl
And… Hillary on “toleration.”
…What the hell is she talking about? “That will not be tolerated?” By whom would it not be tolerated, the USA, acting without UN sanction? Is this a reflection of the emergence of a “covert action state” mentality empowered by COIN defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan and an easy win in Libya against an easy target?
Somehow, a picture seems to be emerging. It is not a good picture. pl
*gah*
…Failure to institute meaningful reforms will eventually catch up with them… Ain’t Kharma a B*tch…? ;-)
I’ve mentioned it once or twice before, Tarheel…! ;-)
Until I checked Wikipedia, I always interpreted it as “the sentiment of the BRICS countries”. I find the emerging coalitions in a post-American empire world something interesting to watch.
Speaking of crushing rebellions violently…
Dayam, eCAHN, your post is still open for comments…! ;-)
Yeah, don’t know how that happened.
On the substance of putting down conflicts with max destruction of civilians on the other side, this interview with Ellsberg about the U.S. use of a-bomb and firebombing, raises much more difficult Qs about U.S. than my little Lincoln analogy. Scott Horton raises the interesting question: If it was OK to use firebombing & the atom bomb against Japanese women & children (U.S. & UK did same in Germany) to save a million U.S. soldiers’ lives (which Ellsberg disputes anyhow), would it also be OK to round up all the women & children & gun them down or gas them.
As the ever intrepid Richard Silverstein described it…
…The Israeli army had been warned in advance by the Shin Bet and was prepared for the border attack. No such luck for the Egyptian police…
Btw, he was the bearer of this bad news, today… Barak Confidant: Israel Has Decided to Attack…
I saw that “will not be tolerated” report. That sort of thing is called giving hostages to fortune.
mfi
Morning, Gor…! The Sun has yet to set here in the Isles…! ;-)
*Oh Snap* Where’s my Shaker of Salt…? FSA claims it killed Russian general in Syria who had been aiding Assad regime…
Fortunately Russia has salt mines, or if you don’t fancy a trip to siberia you could always go with the Hawaiian product …
One of the rare occasions when I agree wholeheartedly with Seamus Milne:
Read in full: Intervention is now driving Syria’s descent into darkness | Seumas Milne | Comment is free | The Guardian
spot on snip collection — Obama and Clinton acting and doing like it is the 1950′s/60′s again with the Pentagon/CIA as attack dogs — it’s all good — no blowback possible — WashingtonDC only wants to do good and keep the bad guys down…
…smells much like the 1950′s/60′s again does it not?
POTUS Obama and SoS Clinton belong in a jail…both being shameless as they meddle with humans and kill humans while claiming to be The Good Guys. Obama not being elected again to be POTUS is politically needed and Obama going to jail is a needed justice. Obama does/is doing killing just like Assad but Obama gets away with doing so with the BS claim to be The Good Guy. Obama belongs in a jail as much as anyone else these days claiming to “lead” a nation/people. SoS Clinton can and should join Obama in the same jail. Imagine that taking place. Keep on imagining as it will not take place. No justice is possible to be had with Obama and Clinton and they both damn well know it.
This is all smells bad and should not end well as WashingtonDC and POTUS Obama and SoS Clinton kill innocent humans because they want to and can and no one can “touch them” while doing so.
To deepest Hell with them.