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I played my drum for Him
Pa rum pum pum
I played my best for Him
Pa rum pum pum pum
Rum pum pum pum
Rum pum pum pum
Then He smiled at me
Pa rum pum pum pum
Me and my drum.
-Little Drummer Boy
This is just getting outright ridiculous, folks…!
Intel chair warns U.S. must act if Syria moves to use chemical weapon
…The Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee on Friday warned the Obama administration it must act more urgently to prevent Syria’s government from using chemical weapons.
Rep. Mike Rogers told attendees at the IISS Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrian that the United States has a moral obligation to act immediately if there is concrete proof chemical weapons are loaded and being readied for launch.
Recent U.S. intelligence suggests the Syrian government has started mixing chemical weapons compounds and loading them into bombs, though the bombs are not being moved to any delivery devices, CNN’s Barbara Starr reported.
Visibly frustrated, Rogers argued the United States and the international community were way behind in acting to prevent use of chemical weapons, saying there was a robust debate in Washington on what constitutes a red line for military action – before Syrian President Bashar al-Assad moves to use weapons or after the weapons are launched…
…About 400 U.S. and Dutch NATO troops were massed on Turkey’s Syrian border amid fears besieged President Bashar Assad was poised to use chemical weapons.
The soldiers were readying Patriot missiles three days after NATO agreed to deploy the MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system in Turkey. Ankara had requested the installations as a defense against a Syrian missile attack, possibly with chemical weapons.
“Nobody knows what such a regime is capable of and that is why we are acting protectively here,” German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said of NATO’s move.
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Thursday the latest intelligence reports heightened fears Assad would use chemical weapons on the rebels trying to oust him.
“The intelligence that we have raises serious concerns that this is being considered,” he said…
…Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad told pro-Assad Lebanese satellite TV station al-Manar, affiliated with the Shiite militant group Hezbollah: “Syria stresses again, for the 10th, the 100th time, that if we had such [chemical] weapons, they would not be used against its people. We would not commit suicide.”
Miqdad accused the United States and pro-opposition European countries of “conspiring” to create the impression the Assad regime would use chemical weapons to justify an intervention…
Now, to be sure folks, it’s not just my starry-eyed, naïveté…
Has Obama decided on war in Syria?
1 – The same two propagandists from WINEP and ISW are quoted as the main sources of this article as in so many other propaganda pieces on this theme and subject. These two fellows have no sources of information that they will admit to other than rebel “news” releases. The level of enthusiasm for this information campaign is so high in the idiot media that these two “experts’” opinions are now quoted as evidence.
2 – Both the president of the United States and the Secretary of State have taken to making speeches threatening Syria with unspecified “consequences” if chemical weapons are employed in the civil war. Syria states that it will not do so.
3- It seems that the United States will soon recognize a coalition of rebel groups as the government of Syria in spite of the presence in that coalition of AQ related groups who are self-declared enemies of the United States.
4- It is the policy of the United States to bring about complete governmental change in Syria. There is no UN sanction for such a policy.
It appears that the Obama Administration has taken upon itself the right to determine the outcome of the civil war in Syria. The ongoing and emerging disaster in Egypt is evidently not a deterrant to “king making” in Syria. pl
Col. Lang’s initial post then sparked this guest post at SST…
HARPER: SYRIA IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN
…Both the German BND and the Russian government have issued strong statements in the past 24 hours, indicating that they have carefully looked into the chemical weapons claims and find absolutely no evidence to confirm them.
The propaganda campaign is a carbon copy of the now totally discredited “weapons of mass destruction” claims that were used in 2002-2003 to justify the U.S. led invasion of Iraq to overthrow the Saddam Hussein government. In the words of the immortal American philosopher and linguist Yogi Berra, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”
Not only is the U.S. and NATO showing reckless disregard for the consequences of that Iraq fiasco. There is an even more stubborn refusal to learn some of the most painful lessons of the more recent regime change adventure in Libya. The overthrow and execution of Qaddafi has turned Libya into a hotbed of al-Qaeda insurgency……I have no doubt that this Syria fiasco is headed towards a rapid conclusion. The depth of wartime propaganda centered on the chemical weapons scare indicates that the Western powers are committed to bringing down the Assad government as rapidly as possible…
This is all going to end very badly. Harper
Now, b of MOA, responded to Harper’s post at SST, in the comments, and even wrote his own post…
German Paper: U.S. Pressing For NATO War On Syria
…It seems like the U.S. and its tool Rassmussen want, like in Libya, contract NATO for their dirty fights. Judging from user comments in German online media there is, despite an avalanche of anti-Syrian propaganda, a strong opposition against any intervention in Syria. Should Westerwelle (or chancellor Merkel) support a NATO mission their advantage in next years federal elections would be at risk. I therefore expect that the German government will continue to reject any NATO intervention in Syria as well as in Iran. Today’s report on how the U.S. failed to control the weapon flow from Qatar to Libya will only bolster their arguments.
Here is that ‘German report,’ which b roughly translated… Exclusive: NATO Chief Urges Readiness For Military Intervention In Syria…!
Meanwhile, the drumbeats grow ever louder… Unleashing chemical weapons: Syrian risks include deliberate attack, loss of control to rebels…!
Pa rum pum pum pum…! *gah*
46 Comments
You suspect that someone is not telling the truth?
That Panetta quote is very interesting because Panetta seemed to walk back the chemical weapons fears yesterday. Is this a walkback of the walkback?
Like I commented on one of your earlier posts, if you see where Syria had its chemical weapons stored, you would see why they might want to move them somewhere else. Three of the five chemical weapons facilities were near cities that are hotbeds of the rebellion.
But the idea that the regime would actually use the weapons within Syria doesn’t pass the sanity test in a civil war where the combatants are mixed up together and mixed with civilians.
And the journalism is atrocious. Consider this lede from your “drumbeats grow louder” link:
All of this is highly dangerous speculation if it in any way drives US policy. And the GOP House Intelligence chair–posturing as tougher on national defense than Mr. “I killed bin Laden and continue to use drones”.
In other news, the various branches of FSA and other rebel armies have negotiated a unified command. Their current target is the international airport through which Assad gets supplies from outside Syria.
I agree, the real fear should be from the ‘FSA’…
…There are no grounds to grant any credibility to the claims made by Washington and its media servants in presenting a supposedly imminent threat of a chemical weapons attack by the Syrian government as a trigger for war.
To the extent that there is any genuine content to these claims, it was expressed on Wednesday by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who declared that Washington was concerned “that an increasingly desperate Assad regime might turn to chemical weapons, or might lose control of them to one of the many groups that are now operating within Syria.”
The statement raised for the first time the prospect that the real threat in Syria is that the so-called rebels that the US and its allies are backing could overrun Syrian military facilities and capture chemical weapons.
Citing unnamed US officials, CNN reported on Wednesday that the US State Department is preparing to add Jabhat al-Nusra, a Syrian Islamist militia that is playing the leading role in the military campaign against the Assad government, to its list of “Foreign Terrorist Organizations.”
According to recent reports, the Al Qaeda-connected al-Nusra militia has fielded as many as 10,000 fighters, many of them foreign Islamists who have been funneled into Syria. The group is said to be the best-armed element waging the war for regime change and is credited with recently overrunning two Syrian military bases.
I’d seen a tweet or fb post stating that the rebels had advanced within 3 clicks of Al Fahmir(sic), the largest wmd depot…!
Now, McClatchy is pushing back hard…Experts skeptical Syria is preparing to use its chemical arsenal…!
Stay tuned, Mi Amigo…! ;-)
Nutz. It’s ‘Pretend we didn’t tell you to *not think* of an elephant…even though…we were told that you should pay attention to that elephant.
But I have faith that all the feints, posturing, not to mention reports (?) of carrier groups we’re deploying all over da world…are just good chess moves, and that we won’t accidentally start WW III. I do have faith that they will keep us safe from militant brown people.
Send a thought and a prayer into the Multiverse that sanity might insert itself somewhere along the line.
God(dess) Help Us, all, wendy…! 8-(
That sanity will have to occur in the Congress because the usual Village and CFR suspects are out beating the war drums. Foreign policy is an extension of domestic politics.
And now there is a report from GlobalResearch that Israel might have agreed with Azerbaijan to base Israeli drones there (supposed target Iran).
In negotiations with Iran, I hope Ms. Hillary can take Yes for an answer.
*heh* And here I thought I wore the rosiest spectacles, Tarheel…! ;-)
You are suggesting that the US will unilaterally go to war in Syria. I don’t believe that will happen. Even the Washington warmongers would need a UN cover — and that won’t happen b/c Russia and China wouldn’t agree. There has been no sign that the Pentagon is in favor of such an adventure. So why get hysterical about something that won’t happen?
On the ground, the US is prepared to classify the leading Syria antagonist, al-Nusrah, as terrorists. This action would degrade the support of the chief threat to Syria. Financial support to al-Nusrah from Qatar and Saudi Arabia would be jeopardized.
There is no apparent working relationship between the new Syria National Coalition and the fighters in Syria, particularly with al-Nusrah.
So why the Syria hysteria?
Don, at what juncture would I disagree with your excellent assessment…? My whole point is that the War Drums are still beating incessantly…! Our War Machine’s appetite is totally insatiable…! 8-(
It’s not CTuttle who has the hysteria, it’s the US media hysterical about loose chemical weapons.
*heh* I’m totally f*cking P*ssed, but, not hysterical, yet…! ;-)
I never know if Global Research reports are accurate; do you think they are in the main, or do you choose authors you trust?
@ donbacon: couldn’t NATO institute a no-fly zone (with company)? Hillary’s comments seem pretty provocative; there must be some reason for them, no?
I’m treating them as interesting rumor. Azerbaijan is a Muslim country. And interesting alliance indeed–if true.
GR is definitely credible on the actual facts, wendy, I only dispute some of their inferences and/or conclusions sometimes…! But, not often, tho…! ;-)
Clinton doesn’t do military matters.
–A no-fly zone is not on the agenda for any NATO talks this week,” the US official told reporters aboard Clinton’s plane.
–NATO surface-to-air missiles due to be stationed near Turkey’s border with Syria will only be used to protect Turkish territory and not to establish a no-fly zone within Syria, the Turkish military said on Monday.
My reading is that Turkey is driving that action, not the US or Europe.
What’s your point, don…? Our Ship of State is still headed on a direct collision course for that MENA Iceberg…! 8-(
Thank you all for the responses.
Tell me your point and then I’ll tell you mine.
Don, I certainly wear my ‘bleeding’ heart on my sleeve… ‘Concern’ Over Syria’s WMDs…!
I dunno; I’m gonna go to bed; too crazy for me. ;o)
Sweet dreams, wendy…!
…US uses rumours of chemical weapons to underpin threat of action in Syria…
That is the only ‘legitimate’ means available, no matter how illegitimate, or preposterous, it is…! 8-(
Btw, don, you’re one of the most prolific, and encyclopedic commenters, I’ve seen, and, I would truly like to converse with you on the side, in any manner you see fit…! *g*
1) My ONLY fear is that we have new weapons platforms in place, some that have failed horribly in the past, wrt ground based missles to intercept incoming missles. FAIL! End of that story, but MIC wants to TEST them. That’s a legit fear.
2) Too much international resistance already in evidence for USA to launch any wars upon Syria, or anyone else for that matter.
3) Evidence is overwhelming, USA makes up shit. This is neocons, and GOP, and last I saw was Rove and Norquist being DUMPED like a big pile of shit from a dinosaur, a pile about 10ft high of the neocon shit.
These guys and gals are running scared as all get out, they are ONE MORE (or a few more) loony bullshit exposed act away from being really, really, completely and utterly disregarded by their own small and shrinking white, patsy faced, fat and aging misogynist, racist and homophobic supporters, who them selves are dying off faster n the dinosaurs did.
So, I’m not alarmed, by any means, CT. This shit is all kabuki to save Pentagon funding in the coming cuts to be. N that’s all it is.
A dying gasp from the MIC, which in and of itself, is fading somewhat slower, than the GOP and miscreant corporate fascist 1%.
*G*
See, I TOLD you I could be upbeat!
*G*
Ohhhh FUCK I might bronze that one.
*G*
Not sure if yer sayin what I’m sayin, but if yer sayin this is all bullshit MIC/Neocon War Profiteering Propaganda to goad Prez into testing still, yet renewed and revamped failed weapons platforms, then I’m in full accord with yer posit.
*G*
N MY pov is that, the neocons and the MIC is on the run, beaten down like the GOP with the recent losses, pissed off electorate, unemployed and general masses who want BETTER shit for their lives than is being delivered by either party.
Dems are at a HUGE turning point in history, the GOP is about flattened from its own flatulence, and only the MIC and corporate fascist war machine stands in their way of saving our souls.
And no, I have NO faith the Dems will do so. ;-)
WTF is FSA?????
Love yer linkys and such but hoss, PLEASE be more descriptive for us who don’t WANT to click on dozens of links just to figger out what it was you said to set up something, and fell two lines short of telling us what the flock it was you were talking about!
C’mon hoss, more splainin, please. Shorter quotes, too. I know you got it in yas, do some editing, tighten up your POV’s. Maybe you could hire me on as an editor before you publish, I could get paid in sea food and island fruits if ya want. I could dig that.
NO POI! NO POI! That’s a deal breaker. ;-)
And no, I have NO faith the Dems will do so. ;-)
And, therein, lies the ‘rub’… Larue…! 8-(
Enough is enough, already…! *gah*
CT, my take is this is all blowback from upcoming Pentagon and MIC/WarMachine cutbacks deficit tawk wise.
Everyone is jockeying for their pork, in Congress, The White House, lobbyists, all across the fatcat board.
And as usual, which I learnt from YOU sir, he says with GREAT respect (yeah I know, I mess with ya a lot, my bad), I learnt that Israel uses this shit to move and take turf, and create new settlements on displaced Palistinean turf.
So the two things are intertwined. And Kabuki and smoke and mirrors are the key indicators.
Blowback about upcoming budget cuts to the war machine, cover for Israeli continued genocide upon all Palistineans.
On we trudge. We have only ourselves to fear.
…On we trudge…
Eggs-actly…! ;-)
Mr. Bacon, well put. Thanks.
I love CT like a brothuh, he’s relentless on issues, well read, and has military background, he knows the beast.
He also edumacates us often, in his works and musings.
But I too, believe this is all much ado about nothing.
The nothing being the cursing of the MIC wrt upcoming budget cuts in the war machine and AIPAC follies to distract us from encroaching Israeli war mongering on Palistineans.
I think I’ve quite disagreed with you in the past on some issues . . . not on this one. Thanks for you comment.
CT that’s the point . . . it’s an incessant beat, like the GOP.
Funded by the corporate fascists.
Come on now, you and I have lived long enuff on this rock, seen it, done it, and with the internet, LEARNT IT BEYOND our wildest dreams.
The beat goes on, like Sonny N Cher. The reality is, it’s only a beat.
There are many other beats. And we the people, are slowly beginning to realize that, without jobs and shelter and food and such, healthcare for instane, without these things, the beat they are playing is NOT the one we wanna dance to.
I firmly believe, post erection, this is the best it’s been since Reagan.
The potential to change it all, beat the corporate fascists back and recapture the processes of the governance of our nation looms HUGE for us.
I trust this opportunity is NOT squandered!
CA has a shot at it, first time since ’78, when Prop 13 was passed, we have a DEM Super Majority. In both state houses, the Assembly and Senate.
I sure hope, these fucks don’t fuck this one up. We might be able to kick start the reenlightenment, all on our own.
Jobs alone are gonna start to explode in CA, from the ACA, altho I remain skeptical how it will impact we the people, but jobs alone is a good start.
Eliminating the middlemen, the actuaries, the insurance companies, would be GRAND, single payer!
Who knows, in CA, it’s a whole new ball game, let’s see if I can’t become a bit more optimistic all around.
;-)
Ok, good point, I am guilty CT, of focusing on your COVERAGE of the hysteria, and linking it to you . . . But I stand on my points. ;-)
You, and the others, are some pretty sharp folks.
This is a good one, for this topic.
I consider it all to be US Hasbara, so far.
But in this diary, and comments, lie most alternatives, all well discussed.
Well done, people, well done, for foreign and anti war affairs afficiando’s . . . . I assume the latter, hope I’m right. ;-)
N still, we wait. Cuz you KNOW this is all unsustainable.
First one’s to run with that theme, own the country, cuz even stoopid fuxks know shit can’t go on forever if too many are pissed off, for one reason or another.
*G*
Love ya, hoss, like a brother. We are not even far apart politically or socially by any means.
Man what I’d give to spend a day on the ocean/bay catching fish, clams, mussels and shrimp, then cooking them, and quaffin and such, then pickin with folks, on yer porch.
*G*
I’d even help your lady do dishes, honest!
*G*
…cuz even stoopid fuxks know shit can’t go on forever if too many are pissed off, for one reason or another…
*heh* One can only ‘divide and conquer’ so far, Larue…! ;-)
God, all we need now is the present black woman named Rice to come out with the “mushroom cloud” quote. Who is it that said, ‘history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes’?
And where’s that fucker Colin Powell, surely he must have some leftover photos of mobile chemical labs to show!
My view is that there is a lot of complexity going on in the situation and fixating on the US policies and actions misses stuff.
First of all, the mess started with a genuine Arab Spring nonviolent movement in February 2011, one that has been met with slightly smarter repression from Assad than Gadhafi used in Libya (i.e. no dirct fire with anti-aircraft guns on peaceful protesters0; that means that the defenctions from the Assad regime have come more slowly as Assad fails to repress the opposition.
After six months, members of the armed forces who were related to the protesters being repressed started defecting and formed armed opposition to the Syrian military without a whole lot of organization. Shortly thereafter Syrian opposition people in exile (ex-pats) gathered in Istanbul and formed the Syrian National Council; protesters within Syria were not terribly impressed.
The struggle continues. A UN Security Council resolution passes an arms embarge, obseverd at first but quickly ignored by supplers of the regime and by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who start arming the opposition. As the Libyan revolution succeeds in removing Gadhafi, the militias there of all political stripes start sending arms and fighters to Syria to fight with the opposition armed struggle, now called the Free Syrian Army (FSA). From there on, the internal war has pretty much been a growing civil war.
As the war apread, displaced people began to cross into Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan. Those countries set up refugee camps on their borders. For a time Syrian troops tried to block passage of refugees out of the country and fired occasionally into refugee camps. Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan all have lodged diplomatic protests with Syria over these attacks on their soil. So that brought them into the conflict as players.
Turkey is a NATO ally that still has diplomatic relations with Israel, although the attack on the peaceful Gaza flotilla and the killing of a Turkish citizen is a serious diplomatic issue. Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel of thirty years duration. And Jordan is a US ally facing its own Arab Spring movement. Saudi Arabia sees itself as the protector of Sunni (and in particular the Wahabi brand) Islam. Qatar is the sponsoring government of al Jazeera and a player in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Because of almost absolute rule, neither has a visible Arab Spring movement. Shi’ite Iraq is aligned with the Alewite Ba’ath government of Assad (in spite of Saddam Hussein also being a part of the secular nationalist Ba’ath movement). Iran is also supportive of the Assad government because they see the hand of the Saudi Sunni government in the opposition. And Israel until recently has been conflicted about the Assad government; they liked that Assad provided stability will little support of attacks on Israel. They still saw Syria, the last neighboring country with which they did not have a peace treaty as a potential threat. They most likely are the source of the concern over chemical weapons as those weapons are more likely to be used outside Syria (against Israel) than they are inside Syria where the possibility of large numbers serious friendly fire casualties is close to certain.
So that’s the regional players.
Geopolitically, Syria has a long-standing alliance with Russia and very friendly relations with China (if only to counterbalance the US-Israeli alliance). Six months ago, the possibility existed that the US and Russia were going all in opposing or backing Assad, which could lead to serious conflict between the two countries. Diplomacy and the weakening of Assad’s rule seem to have diminished the possibility that Syria could become a globalized struggle. This is what folks are referring to as “World War III”. Amidst the diplomatic jockeying among the US, Russia, and China, it seems that there is the determination to isolate the Syrian conflict to Syria.
Because part of the motivation of the conflict with Assad is Islamist politics seeking a religious instead of a secular state, all of the various Sunni movements — Muslim Brotherhood, Salafist, Wahabists, jihadists of various stripes — have been involved with the opposition. Other elements of the opposition seek an end to dynastic rule, corruption, domination by one party — and are generally referred to as “liberals and leftists” although neither of those terms might be accurate in their US or European meanings. Those folks generally seek a multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian, secular multi-party state. No one knows how strong they are relative to the more religious elements of the opposition.
Now US policy. After the opposition and government were stalemated to the point that an armed resistance appeared, it is highly likely that the US, Israel, and other governments began covert operations in Syria. No one knows the nature of those operations yet; all reports are inferences or just plain speculation based on why someone imagines that that is consistent with past behavior or what they in their imagination would have done in the circumstnces.
And the US pursued actions in the UN to force a political settlement through sanctions on the regime and an embargo of arms. And also sought to isolate the conflict within Syria (i.e. not have it spill over into Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, or Turkey. And the US kept the diplomatic pressure on Assad. Sometime around the first of 2012, the US apparently made the judgment that Assad had lost sufficient legitimacy that he would likely be removed from power and began to try to support moves to unify the opposition. Those were the last major diplomatic moves.
The US military (except for whatever role they might have in covert operations) has been restrained from high-profile action. It seems that President Obama learned from the military’s bigfoot “shock and awe” performance in establishing the no-fly zone in Libya that leaving the military to do what it wants to do is not the best international politics.
There will be no no-fly zone in Syria primarily because the opposition political and military leadership in Syria absolutely do not want one. And specifically, they want no foreign intervention–except of course to supply them weapons. On the weapons, Saudi Arabia and Qatar don’t need US prodding to supply Sunni elements weapons, and they have sufficient weapons locally to do that or can purchase them on the global arms market. (In Libya and Syria, the opposition prefers Russian- and Chinese-manufactured weapons over US weapons. Simpler training, more reliable, cheaper to supply. So the weapons that the Saudis and Qatar supply tend to be Russian and Chinese weapons.)
Of course the US military would love to test weapons. But US allies like Turkey are not likely to agree to be test subjects for possibly unreliable weapons. And as NATO allies, they know the capabilities of US weapons. In addition, they have their own export arms industry.
Is the US military itching for a fight? My sense is that as long as Afghanistan is not settled, they are not. They seem to have gotten their fill of their generation’s war as much as other Americans. In addition, I think over four years President Obama has solidified his authority as commander-in-chief, one who listens to the military’s advice but decides on his own. And from the military’s perspective, making decisions that “win” in their frame of reference — getting Osama bin Laden and the “successful” support of the Libyan revolution — make them less likely to buck his decisions.
The foreign policy objective of the United States in the Middle East, Syria included, is what it has always been — have a peaceful region tied into the global economic system and open to US corporations. (Yes, this is a classic imperial objective.) Rebuilding yet another country or waiting for it to rebuild itself does not help this objective.
This differs from the Neo-Conservative objective of “looking tough enought that no one will tangle with you”. And we have seen the folly of “toughness” over the past decade.
The military-industrial-complex wants profits. If it can get profits when there are not wars, it is just as happy as when there are wars. Maybe more so. You get the “neat technology” without the bad press of kids maimed by clusterbombs or families hit as “collateral damage”.
That’s where I’m coming from in my understanding of the Syrian situation.
Really. Where’s Elric of Melnibone’ when we need him?
Mark Twain said that.
There is little doubt that the Syrians DO have chemical weapons, they refused to sign the treaty limiting such, after all, but that does NOT mean that Assad would actually USE them against his own people.
If he did, I think he’d lose the support of Russia and China post-haste, and the reaction of the UN Security Council would be swift and unanimous. Assad surely knows that.
So, why beat the war drums for American military intervention on the grounds that Assad MIGHT use chemical weapons? I suppose it’s geopolitical. Jumping in first would prevent Russia and China from going in on some joint effort to play hero, and, in the minds of the neocons, would possibly set up yet another outpost of the American Empire in the Middle East.
It’s a bad idea of course. As Iraq and Afghanistan have both proved so recently, conquest is easy, control is not.
Syria – Chemical weapons (Wikipedia)
If Assad uses chemical weapons in-country, he risks killing lots of pro-government supporters as well. As long as the regime behaves with some degree of rational self-interest, that scenario is unlikely.
There are other worries. (1) The regime fires chemical weapons at somewhere outside the country; Israeli and Turkish settlements are both within artillery range and definitely within range of Scuds. This is also unlikely. (2) The opposition forces take control of the chemical weapons and use them against outside countries; that is likely or unlikely depending on who you see as dominating opposition decision-making. (3) The chemical weapons are not secured and state or non-state operatives steal them and transport them to unknown and untrackable destinations, potentially making them available for attacks anywhere in the world.
It is 3 that is the legitimate worry IMO.
“There will be no no-fly zone in Syria primarily because the opposition political and military leadership in Syria absolutely do not want one.”
I will have to trust you on this one, as I’ve gotten so very lost in the many forces inside that I’ve pretty much bailed on thinking I understand what’s afoot now. That said, when I *was watching*, there were ubiquitous quotes abroad begging the US to institute a no-fly zone. (IIRC, even Petraeus (was it he then?) was against it, but said he’d prosecute it if…la la la…
By my lights, funneling arms is one thing, even if it’s okaying American arms dealers to do so through Qtar, massive bombing in the name of R2P quite another.
As Libya has shown, the US propensity for short term ‘alliances’ based on ‘the enemy of mine enemy is mine friend’ meme…always comes back to haunt us.
A legitimate concern. But do you think that justifies an American invasion and occupation of Syria?