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As the Grey Lady reported…
Syria Says It Has Right to Counterattack Israel
…”Increasing the likelihood of a cycle of retaliation”…
… Israeli officials remained silent on Thursday about their airstrike in Syrian territory the day before, a tactic that experts said was part of a longstanding strategy to give targeted countries face-saving opportunities to avoid conflict escalation. But Syria’s own confirmation of the attack, followed by harsh condemnation not only by Israel’s enemies Iran and Hezbollah but also by Russia, may have undercut that effort, analysts said, increasing the likelihood of a cycle of retaliation. “From the moment they chose to say Israel did something, it means someone has to do something after that,” said Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel’s National Security Council and a longtime military leader. “Contrary to what I could hope and believe yesterday, that this round of events would end soon, now I am much less confident.”…
Now, the hasbara put forth by the PTB media has been that the Israeli strike was directed solely against a purported weapons caravan headed into Hezbollah hands, yet…
Iranian, Russian experts ‘habitually present’ at targeted Syrian facility
Iranian and Russian experts were “habitually present” at the Syrian facility reportedly struck by Israel on Wednesday, a senior Syrian military official who recently defected said Friday.
Maj. Gen. Abdul-Aziz Jassem al-Shallal further claimed that there are no chemical weapons at the facility northwest of Damascus, according to Israel Radio.
But another defected Syrian general, Adnan Sillu, said Friday that the facility produced “non-conventional weapons,” in addition to conventional arms. Sillu was previously in charge of Syria’s chemical weapons training program.
On Wednesday, Syrian officials said Israeli planes struck a “research facility” northwest of the capital. The accusation came after reports from foreign news sources earlier in the day that said Israel had hit a weapons convoy near the Syria-Lebanon border that was transferring arms to the terror group Hezbollah.
Syrian Army Chief of Staff General Ali Abdullah Ayoub told troops on Thursday that the war with Israel is ongoing and will never end, according to state news agency SANA.
Ayoub also charged that Israel was backing rebel groups who were conducting “organized terrorism against the Syrian people.”
As the Wapoo put it…
Israeli attack on Syria could be beginning of new strategy as Assad’s grip on power weakens
An Israeli air attack staged in Syria this week may be a sign of things to come.
Israeli military officials appear to have concluded that the risks of attacking Syria are worth taking when compared to the dangers of allowing sophisticated weapons to reach Hezbollah guerrillas in neighboring Lebanon.
With Syrian President Bashar Assad’s grip on power weakening, Israeli officials fear he could soon lose control over his substantial arsenal of chemical and advanced weapons, which could slip into the hands of Hezbollah or other hostile groups. These concerns, combined with Hezbollah’s own domestic problems, mean further military action could be likely.
Tzachi Hanegbi, an incoming lawmaker in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and a former chairman of parliament’s influential foreign affairs and defense committee, signaled Thursday that Israel could be compelled to act on its own. While Israel’s preference is for Western powers to gain control over Syria’s arms stockpile, he said there are no signs of that happening.
“Israel finds itself, like it has many times in the past, facing a dilemma that only it knows how to respond to. And it could well be that we will reach a stage where we will have to make decisions,” Hanegbi told Israel’s Army Radio Thursday. Hanegbi, like other Israeli officials, would not confirm Israeli involvement in the airstrike.
In this week’s incident, Israeli warplanes conducted a rare airstrike inside Syria, according to U.S. officials who said the target was a convoy carrying anti-aircraft weapons bound for Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militant group allied with Syria and Iran…
As the Jpost wrote… Why the attack on Syria suits Netanyahu…
I wonder how much longer Hezbollah will sit on the sidelines, on Syria, and/or allow Israeli F-16s to loiter over Lebanon…?
*gah*
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From another perspective, there is this from Dr. Mohamed, editor-in-chief of the Syria Tribune news website:
http://rt.com/news/israel-airstrike-syria-destabilization-131/
The last quote is from Abayomi Azikiwe, editor of the Pan-African news wire. The other two quotes re from Dr. Mohamed.
And since the Hizbullah folk are better at spending money and using resources effectively, the extra cash and aid boost will be quite powerful.
It just occurred to me: With the Western-backed opposition groups fighting amongst themselves as much as against Assad, what’s the likelihood that a well-organized and well-run outfit like Hizbullah could sweep in and sweep all before it, should Assad decide to bail?
First off, if it’s a blunder it’s not Bibi’s blunder. The IDF and Mossad have refused Bibi before. This time it’s IDF who authorized the raid. It seems like the big scary thing for Israel is chemical weapons (or given the history of the Holocaust, this is an effective domestic and international propaganda hook).
I don’t think that immediate military consequences from state actors (Syria and Iran) are likely for Israel. But Israel squandered what tiny diplomatic resources it has. And so far, if it’s an attempt to stamped NATO or US involvement, it hasn’t worked. Europe is silent; the US pro forma notes the event and expresses concern about securing chemical weapons. Syria and Iran for their parts are pretty pro forma, playing out the kabuki. Even Russia’s condemnation is pro forma. There seems to be at the moment an international consensus that containment of the conflict is the best that can be done right now.
What it succeeded in doing is stealing the news cycle in Israel and the US from the fact that the UN Human Rights Commission released a report of Israel’s violation of the Geneva Conventions in its management of the occupied territories. This begins to chip away at Israel’s decades-long pretense that the territories both are and are not independent states in a state of war with Israel. Whichever condition is correct obligates Israel to certain obligations under different sections of the Geneva Conventions. The symbolic vote to allow Palestine observer status at the UN is beginning to have diplomatic consequences. But Israelis and USians were not made aware of that because of the focus on the raid.
@Phoenix Woman-3: Hizbullah, sweeping in would install a Shi’ite minority instead of an Alewite minority. Not sure how that would change the dynamics except put more Saudi and Qatari aid and Sunni jihadis into the mix. Not sure that Hizbullah would find that strategically useful from their point of view.
I don’t know. Do you think they’d be interested in doing that, though? They have a lot on their hands just protecting Lebanon from Israel.
I agree Bibi messed up. I am interested to see what happens next.
What this might end up doing is causing Russia to embrace Syria that much more tightly, which is not what Israel wanted to see, I expect.
They seem to have expanded their efforts to aiding Assad. In fact they might be a key reason he hasn’t been toppled yet. These Israeli commentators are suggesting (or rather hoping) that backing Assad will weaken Hizbullah to the point of destruction, though Hizb’s doom has been predicted many times before.
The Syria conflict has been characterized by its principal support by Turkey and also by a lack of a capable political opposition to Assad. So recent events are interesting:
–news report: Turkey’s tourism income surges $23.4 billion . . .Turkey on Friday was selected the “best destination” at the International Brussels Tourism and Holiday Fair, by tour operators, tourism professionals and the fair organization. . .Bomber attacks US embassy in Ankara, Turkey. . .The US embassy warned US citizens to avoid its diplomatic missions in Turkey until further notice and to avoid potential troublespots and demonstrations.
–Syria’s opposition chief Moaz al-Khatib said on Wednesday he is ready for dialogue with officials of President Bashar al-Assad’s. . . later al-Khatib condemned President Bashar al-Assad’s regime for its failure to take action against an Israeli air strike . . . Senior officials from the United States, Russia, the United Nations will meet the Syrian opposition in Munich on Saturday to discuss a political transition in the country, Syrian opposition sources said. . .this would be the first US/Russia meeting on Syria. . .Al-khatib will meet U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi,
Why is this move bad for Izzies? Who’s gonna do anything about it. Hezzies. LOL. They’re good at guerrilla warfare but can’t do full frontal attack. If Syria responds, already destroyed country will be annihilated from the air. Just what the Izzies are hoping for.
Turk tourism soars? Gotta source for that? I think west has been pravaganized to the hilt, but somewhere there’s a hint that sumptin bads going on in that neckowoods. Would you tourist in Turkey today? Or Egpyt. I hear the Egypt pound value has made it a bargain.
Good points. Only thing good that Israel got out of it IMO is driving the UN Human Rights Commission Report off the major news. Israel’s current problem is that their power to control events is rapidly eroding, not that it is substantial within the boundaries of pre-1947 Palestine, and they are almost completely isolated diplomatically, the US being their last hope.
The downside for Israel is that it does zip, zero, nada to turn that erosion of power around.
Don’t have to be a USian to be a tourist in the Black Sea coast or Mediterranean coast of Turkey, but those are still popular destinations. Cappadocia is probably a little dicey for USians. Same goes for Egypt. Don’t think that Japanese or Indian or even Swedish tourist are necessary at risk in Egypt. Bargain in currency makes it open to tourists from BRICS.
Not advancing that tourism has dried up. Questioning why it would soar in response to, ahem, ya know, like antimissile batteries placed by NATO in Turkey.
OTOH, might make an inneresing tourist sight. I’ve not seen up close & personal. Have you?
Re: #7. . .
Russia being eager to grasp Syria/Assad more closely because of what Israel does may be plausible.
Still, it would have to be further linked to bigger fish which Russia really cares about — perhaps Chechnya and it’s surroundings, which have been point sources for terrorism within Russia, and they haven’t been entirely tamped down.
That is, if Syria had been helping Russia in that effort (intel, counterterrorism wise) then Russia might well publicly object to Israel attacking Syrian smugglers to Hizbollah. Not vigorously opposing that Israeli interference would undercut Russia’s own position, along with any future Syrian cooperation with Russia. Yet at this point I’d be surprised if Russia hasn’t already tentatively given up on the Syrians anyway.
I think it’s safe to assume that, in the end, Russia doesn’t sincerely “care” about Syria or Syrians or Hizbollah, themselves, and Russia probably never has.
Rockets.
Go here.
I’ve spoken with several people who have been there and they loved it. So I set up a trip last May to tour around, had all the reservations, but my S.O. broke her ankle so I had to cancel everything. Turkish Airlines gave me a full refund, and all the inns were gracious when I canceled. One assured me there would be no charge against my CC, the others didn’t have my CC, and I even received Christmas greetings from two of them! I didn’t even show up! So as soon as their foreign policy changes I’ll go there.
IIRC, rockets are missiles w/out guidance. Killed just about no one in Israel in 2012 war. Squirt gunz in short version.
So what exactly are the capabilities of Hezbollah? I would think that if there really were missiles headed to them, the Israelis would take them out. A few years ago they gave Israel a rough go of it. Could they do so again? Are they secure in Lebanon? Would they be up for some attacks now?
But can they install guidance on them?
Your link went to search result, not a stat showing that tourgism has soared in Turkey. You know that when I click on your search result it’s diff for me than for you bc I have diff cookies and thus giggle gives me diff results.
Your personal story about trip cancellation, refunds, etc sounds like the opposite to your point. IOW, if Turkey tourism were soaring, why would your agent be so ready to salve your economic wounds with refunds.
Re #10. . .
eCAHN, Hizbollah is armed to the teeth, hardened, and embedded in southern Lebanon. The UN presence nearby is not as proactive peacekeeper and monitor, as it was touted and supposed to be, but rather as tripwire and cannonfodder to dissuade either side from resuming the (unfinished) war they fought there a few years ago. Perhaps that function is the same thing.
I think the Hizbollah guerilla warfare you refer to is likely, but it won’t be about blowing up pizza parlors and buses with suicide bombers. Rather it would be a storm of missles from those hardened sites in southern Lebanon. I wonder if Hamas’ missles from Gaza a few months ago were actually a test run to assess the IDF’s response.
After all these years and the conflicts, it’s still dreadful over there and without a ray of light.
If they could, they would.
Not demeaning the Hezzies, who are my new BFF. Well, at least since 2006.
Trying to inject a little reality into discussion.
Re my #22. . .
I also think the UN “monitors” in Lebanon, mentioned above, will cut and run in a heartbeat. It’ll spiral on from there.
For guerrilla warfare as I’ve noted. Vast diff betw that and aggressive retaliatory attack attack on Izzies.
These matters shouldn’t be only looked at in military terms — that’s something the U.S. does. The battle for hearts and minds, whether done on a national, regional or world level is the decider.
The U.S. has attacked lord knows how many countries w/o retaliation. But look at how it’s turned out. Massive expenditures and worldwide approbation. Huge losses. The Pew Global Report poll has illustrated how all the good will that Obama won in 2009 is gone, and more besides. Israel is similar.
The Arab world now has even more reason to hate Israel and it’s U.S. sponsor, something even the Saudi despots can’t hide from their people.
Its.
What UN monitors?
And didn’t they also fly a drone over Israel to see what? I can’t help thinking this is where the next challenge to Israel comes from. That why I asked what capabilities they have.
The consequences are…?
If I could predict the future I’d be rich man, not one in abject penury, more or less.
Generally speaking, I’d say that a Jewish state the size of New Jersey with less people, which was trying to exist in an Arab world of 22 nations and about 400 million people, should be more cautious about bombing any of them.
I weep for the chemical weapons.
The Hamas rocket attacks caused Israel to throw in the towel.
Kaveh L Afrasiabi
NEW YORK – Now that the dust of the eight-day Gaza war has settled, the war’s shift of geostrategic fortune in favor of Hamas’s Iranian military patron state is rather unmistakable. Israeli leaders may publicly boast of inflicting heavy damage to Hamas’s rocket capability, yet the fact remains that they failed to reach their ultimate objective of dismantling that capability, which is sure to be replenished and strengthened in the months to come.
All indications are that Hez is more powerful know. This is also reflected in (1) the recent Israeli attack against the supply trucks and (2) the current U.S. railing against those turrible turrists Hezbollah (on AIPAC orders).
I think not about capabilities but about provocation.
Everyone knows that if NATO does full frontal attack on Syria (Iran proxy to be merembered) Syria might well retaliate by bombing Izzies. Think Syria would lose in that one (Asad’s Brit born wife is preggers with their fourth child) so have more than a thimble full of doubt about what the retaliation would actually be.
IOW, it’s not just about military capabilities, provocations & reactions, but a game that’s deeper than I can comprehend. I’ve been impressed by Asad’s (Brit spelling) ability to hold Syria together despite full frontal assault from Vile V. Does not mean he is anything other than the feckless optometrist West makes him out to be, but adds some inneresing Qs to that scenario.
Now.
(Damn the lack of edit — I never do it right the first time. Story of my life.)
Hezbollah claims its rockets can reach Tel Aviv. In 2006 they are said to have fired 4000 rockets. They now claim to have 20000. The Israelis think they have many times that. Hezbollah has promised to blanket Israel with the rockets. Once you start shooting hundreds into a populated area casualties will result. Israel though can make Lebanon a sand pile. But if Hezbollah has anti aircraft systems that could change the calculus. Hence, Israel will not allow it, if they can help it. Other questions are does Hezbollah have drones capable of firing missiles or do they have missiles? This could be a stand off of two tall dogs. If you are BIbi, you better have it figured before you start a war. So don’t go attacking Iran just yet.
There’s no indication that NATO is going to attack Syria. The U.S. neither.
BS big time.
Izzies trouchhed Gaza bigtime. Dozens, scores (forget actual stats) casualties in Gaza, almost none in Israel. Izzies stopped bc they had achieved their objective.
Now just a minute. Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize. I’m pretty sure of that.
Oh really. Hezzie rockets injured almost no one.
I luv the Palestinians, but that is far diff from believing their propaganda.
Today at State:
In 2006 no casualties or not many. But the psychological impact is also important. That can turn public opinion real fast, especially if this time around there are thousands of them and casualties as well.
Do a search on eugenics nobel prize if you want the real story.
Keep your sphincture muscles well exercised.
wiki
In 2006, Haifa was hit by 93 Hezbollah rockets during the Second Lebanon War, killing 11 civilians and leading to half of the city’s population fleeing at the end of the first week of the war. Among the places hit by rockets were a train depot and the oil refinery complex
It does seem clear that Hezbollah is not going to launch an attack if all they have are rockets, even if their aim is better than last time and they have many more of them. As I said, Israel will reduce them to a sand pile. Then there is this but……. If…
Well BIbi, you feeling lucky?
Clearly it’s clear.
Re: #28 . . .
On a parcel of land along Syria-Lebanon border just above the northern Israeli border. Unless they’ve gone already?
Except when it gets cloudy.
I rest my case.
We either put CTuttle to sleep or it’s not daylight yet in the 50th state.
So you’re into body counts? That’s not how it works in the new world of “asymmetric” attacks. Terrorism = frightening the population. In a major Israel city half of the city’s population fled by the end of the first week. This is a major port city; Israel can’t function with that going on. That’s the new world, not frontal attacks with armored formations.
Hez has better rockets now, and more of them. So does Hamas.
My values, nor yours, don’t count. That is my point. (1%ers are into eradicating huge % of global pop.)
What I thought we were discussing was what our masters had in mind for us, not what we, laughingly, thought might be a good outcome.
Izzies, on what I understand to be your point, are being scared, for no rational reason, into giving up all their civil, human, rights to be safe, just like U.S.ians have. That makes eradication of 99ers so much easier.
“Our masters” have the wrong values and are losing, is my point. Can anyone imagine Obama making his pretty 2009-style speeches in Ankara, Cairo and Accra again? No.
The Arab awakening is really a Muslim awakening and it is sweeping much of the old order out of the way, with the enduring Islamic Republic one significant symbol of success. The West has been humiliated in Iraq, and now in Afghanistan (plus Iran as mentioned). And it ain’t over yet.
So there’s hope. Have faith.
– Henry David Thoreau, Civil Disobedience
Thoreau’s values count, that’s my point.
Vivid in my mind is the scenario when Bush invaded Iraq. Refugees swarmed into Syria, and Syria harbored them as best that nation could, with consequential weakening of social structures, as Jordan is now doing also with refugees there, and as Lebanon did with Palestinian refugees. People stream away from chaos and destruction finding safety wherever they can and that is usually in camps that can’t even be called ghettos, so crowded and unstable are the conditions therein.
Practically speaking, a citizenry is doomed when a neighboring country falls into war, and we as a nation foment war; we are bent on it. That becomes clear in any careful, current look at the situation in Libya, whose destruction the smiling Hillary oversaw. That it is even mentioned she could be considered our next president is the same defamation of a minority group that Obama has been. Surely, we have had enough of this!
An excellent essay is at the top of the weekend list on counterpunch.org:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/02/01/the-good-intentions-that-pave-the-road-to-war/
War, people, is hell, and we are in it, Super Bowl or no Super Bowl.
… good comment juliania … thank you …some much needed looking and seeing …
Thanks CT … stay with it
I suppose that there’s some concern that Syria was caught unawares, and that’s at least partially true. But the weapons convoy that was hit was just inside the Syria border and Israel had been conducting regular surveillance flights in the same area. So the attack was sudden and from a supposed surveillance formation that turned out not to be. It took less than a minute probably. That said, Syria should have disguised the convoy as vegetable trucks or used some sort of deception — and perhaps it did.
And this just in: