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Yesterday in this post, I predicted today’s Jobs Report from the BLS would show a far smaller increase in jobs for May than was being predicted by the ‘economists’ interviewed by the various media organizations. The ‘experts’ were predicting 170k private sector jobs with 150k increase overall. My prediction was for 42.5K jobs overall. Guess who was closer to being correct? (via Reuters):
The U.S. economy may be in for a prolonged period of soft growth as employers hired the fewest number of workers in eight months in May and the unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent.Nonfarm payrolls increased 54,000 last month, the Labor Department said, fewer than the most pessimistic forecast in the Reuters survey and just over a third of what economists had expected.
…snip…
The private sector, which has shouldered the burden of job creation added just 83,000 jobs, the least since last June, while government payrolls dropped 29,000.
Adding to the gloomy labor market picture, about 39,000 fewer jobs were created in March and April than previously estimated.
…snip…
Payrolls had been expected to rise 150,000, with private employment gaining 175,000.
This is not the first time I have been more accurate than the “experts”. How is it possible for someone like me to be more accurate in predicting the numbers than the so-called expert economists? Well, I’ll take a WAG and say it might be because I’m not trying to force reality into a pre-conceived computer model designed to reinforce an ideological position based as much on wishful thinking as anything else. Plus, I am actually living the life of the long term un and underemployed.
It isn’t going to get better. The Beltway conventional wisdom has deemed the deficit as the ultimate problem these days, no matter how much evidence there is to the contrary (exemplified by this “opinion” piece in today’s Washington Post from the Catfood Commission chairs, extolling the “Gang of Six.”
Today’s LA Times has this that points out the reality for those of us who are among the long term un and underemployed though:
Jobs are slowly coming back, but that’s small comfort to more than 13 million Americans who remain unemployed. For every current job opening, four people are still looking for a job. Many others have given up even trying to find work.The American economy is trapped in a vicious cycle. Those who are unemployed can’t afford to buy much more than bare necessities, while people who are working are getting skimpier paychecks. This means consumers don’t have much purchasing power, which has made companies reluctant to hire more employees or raise the wages of those they have. (Big companies are enjoying high profits these days, but the profits are coming largely from their foreign sales.)
You’d think the American public would be demanding government action: a new WPA for the long-term unemployed, a second stimulus to make up for the shortfall in purchasing power, stronger safety nets. But we’re not hearing much clamor for any of this. One reason is that those who remain unemployed have little or no political clout.
My bold. We are silent in that we do not have the resources to hire battalions of lobbyists to offer bribes campaign contributions that would allow us to gain a voice inside the beltway.
McClatchy yesterday posted this in what is basically a “get used to it” view:
That’s but the latest disquieting note in a quickly developing trend; all kinds of other economic indicators are also pointing to a slowdown. This week alone data on manufacturing, car sales, home prices and unemployment claims all pointed to a weakening economy. But how weak, and for how long? Forecasters aren’t sure.On top of that, Washington is unlikely to do anything more to spur the economy. There’s little appetite in Congress for more government spending; in fact, all the momentum there is toward cutting spending in the name of debt reduction.
…snip…
Few economists predict a return to recession, yet many are increasingly concerned that the slowdown may be growing worse.
Since I am not an economist, I have no qualms in predicting a “return to recession.” In fact, for 25M to 30M of us who are long term un and underemployed and the further millions who are upside down in mortgages and victims of financial fraud, we have never left recession. It is only places like Wall St, financial institutions, and corporate boardrooms that have not had the continuing impact from the economy. Because of the bailout, these groups have not had to deal with the pain they caused the rest of us.
Via CNN this morning, we see that the Governor of Georgia’s solution to unemployment is to turn the unemployed into farm workers:
Deal is looking for ways to fill a farm worker gap after some areas lost more than 50% of their laborers, the Georgia Fruit and Vegetable Growers Association said. Many workers left Georgia after the governor signed an Arizona-inspired immigration law allowing local police to identify and detain illegal immigrants, the group said.
Yeah, that’s the ticket, turn the desperate worker into cheap labor for farmers who lost their access to cheap labor when the state passes anti-immigrant laws. Having done farm labor when I was in high school a few summers, I’m pretty sure that at my age of a few days short of 59, I would not last more than a couple of days in the fields but that might be the point. Just go ahead and work people until they drop so they won’t be a drain on society by aging.
One piece of news, while not necessarily good news, is at least news of a schadenfreude nature came from today’s LA Times. It seems the State Controller for California has determined that if there is not a balanced budget passed by June 15, he has to dock the legislators’ pay:
Chiang, the state’s chief accountant, said a ballot measure passed in November requires him to dock legislators’ pay unless they approve a balanced spending plan by the June 15 deadline specified in the California Constitution.His interpretation of the measure differs from that of lawyers in the state Senate, who recently said that a budget bill lawmakers passed in March — which left the state with a nearly $11-billion shortfall — met the conditions to keep salaries flowing. But Chiang issues the checks.
…snip…
Legislative leaders expressed support for the controller’s decision, despite earlier hedging and statements from their staff that lawmakers were entitled to collect their pay regardless of whether any further action was taken on the budget.
Now if we could only force the DeeCee folks to lose pay when they concentrate on things like the deficit to the exclusion of employment (or the size of Weiner’s weiner). Oh yeah, for those who think the balanced budget for California and my view of the Catfoodies and the Gang of Six are in conflict? The US government can do things that the state of California cannot by virtue of being the maker of money.
And because I can:
Cross posted from Just A Small Town Country Boy



24 Comments

The ‘lawyers’ in the CA leg who think that they’re going to get paychecks because they passed a partial funding resolution – not a budget – are going to find out that we knew damned well what we were voting for last fall. And we aren’t happy with them playing four-year-olds-in-the-sandbox.
Stimulus spending worked; that’s why all those Republican governors can go around taking credit for all the jobs it saved or created in their state. It’s ludicrous to concentrate on the deficit in the middle of a recession; you get out of a recession by increasing demand with government spending on unemployment insurance and infrastructure investment. You fix the deficit by getting out of the recession.
That’s just what I thought when I read that. By far, the vast majority of un-underemployed are middle aged persons. Indentured servitude for those who had the temerity to become jobless in this economy! See how long you can last under those conditions and while you’re at it, make it illegal to treat ill and injured people without a job or means to pay for treatment.
Pigs.
Yep. With my back problems I figure I would make it no more than a week, tops
Democrats and Republicans are in a race to the bottom. After they enabled the housing bubble and crash, outsourced jobs and rewarded corporations for doing so, increased cost of living expenses and insurance premiums and presicription drugs, they intend to push down wages and cut Social Security and Medicare.
We are all supposed to survive on five dollars per hour. We must go to McDonalds and offer our labor for five bucks an hour.
That is the magic of the Free Market.
Came across this and thought you’d be interested:
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/06/unemployment-during-great-depression.html
I have surprised myself in my overall physical ability to do my new job, (sorry for the ref), though of course I worked hard to achieve it. Still what I do is nothing compared to picking vegetables, of which evidently Nathan Deal has no concept. Maybe he genuinely believes that it’s all about traipsing out to the garden and picking pole beans for supper. Or maybe he really does want to do in the unemployed but either way, he’s a sociopath.
Here is the lesson I have learned…anyone who identifies themselves as a “free market economist” has zero credibility and is usually clueless.
Interesting thanks. It is no surprise that things are woefully undercounted today. Even the U6 number which is “better” (i.e., more accurate) is an undercount IMNSVHO
no argument on that
Tangential– “Greek protesters seize finance ministry” (PressTV.Com, June 3, 2011). Video (CCTVNew, June 3, 2011)
I think you have a different definition of right/wrong than our establishment.
On the economy, our establishment defines “right” as whatever Bernanke and/or Obama admin officials says is right. At least, that’s what the “experts” base their opinion on.
“I Was Right, the “Experts” Were Wrong, So Why Am I the Underemployed?”
Because your not a bought and paid for imbecile capable of critical thinking? Just sayin’…
dakine01, my fellow underemployed engineering brother. Hang in there, bro!
You’re right. The self-professed economists who claim to be experts and claim to “know how things really are” have ZERO clue. It’s a pity that America relies on economists (Ivy League economists, no less) to develop economic policies. Take a look at China the economy of which is run by scientists and engineers. The Chinese economy is far more productive compared to the current U.S. economy.
America needs more non-economists, non-lawyers, and non-business majors in power. American needs more scientists and engineers in policy making levels of government, business, and society. Unfortunately, since most scientists and engineers will refuse to sell themselves out to bankers and the top 1% and refuse to adopt and espouse illogical unscientific, delusional views and prescriptions for the economy and the environment, we’ll never get elected.
The U.S. has a nonfunctioning economy because the U.S. political and electoral systems are both also nonfunctioning (nevermind the fact that the U.S. economy, government, and electoral system are both PRIVATELY OWNED but operated with middle class taxpayer dollars).
Oh, this is good, dakine.
I heard several news reports/analyses of the unemployed numbers…economists were interviewed for their reaction, and in each case, described themselves as “surprised” by the low number. This evening one was saying something like “maybe the economy was just worse than we thought all along.” Just as I was semi-cheering the realism of that statement, he followed it by pretty much saying, “nah, that oculdn’t be it.” and “we’d better hope that wasn’t it.”
Great.
I knew the housing bubble was gonna burst months before it did; listening to the news show economists again denying that there was a bubble, denying that the housing market rise would end any time soon, and denying that house prices could ever go down.
I’m not sure how I knew so absolutely that they were lying…it was just obvious; they were fooling us, and either lying, or truly fooling themselves.
Again, forcing their predictions into a model that denies the possibility of bad results.
I happen to have a temporary gig (2nd day!) now for a month or two, but then there’ll likely be another month or two of no work. These guys need to come live with some of us.
Even Alan Grayson in the other night’s webinar showed he’s a bit out of the real world of the unemployed, despite being very aware that we are hurting and job-creation is of high importance. He mentioned, with some astonishment, the number on his chart of median savings in the lower-income population…about $4000.
My eyes opened wide when he said, “that’s one two mortgage or rent payments!”
I couldn’t help thinking, um, no, it’s my expenses for 2 1/2 to 3 months, and that’s without pulling my belt its tightest.
I don’t think even he could imagine living on $1200 to $1500/mo.
I really think all these folks saying “small cuts” in Social Security won’t hurt anybody have no idea that people live ENTIRELY on the $800 to $2000/mo SS payment, with nothing else, and unable to pay bills or buy food once that check is gone.
Oops, I’m ranting, and I gotta get up and go to work in the morning. Sigh. We’re doing normal 2 weeks of training in 3 10-hr days, then some of us start work on Sunday. So far, I have absolutely no idea if I will be one whose shift includes a Sunday; we don’t have our schedules yet.
Such is life for those of us who can’t get the kind of jobs we were educated for, and must take what we can get. The woman sitting next to me today apparently is/was a nurse. But here we are, working for $9/hr and grateful for it.
Thanks, dakine. You nailed it, as usual.
Damn, I did get going above, didn’t I? My apologies; struck a nerve. Heh.
“How is it possible for someone like me to be more accurate in predicting the numbers than the so-called expert economists?”
Whenever I hear or read the word “expert” I mentally substitute “asshole.” Try it, nearly everything makes more sense.
It also answers your question – you are not an expert. ;)
What I’ve been noticing is that every time I get on Yahoo, there always seem to be bright and shiny articles highlighted on the front page, about someone who worked their way out of debt and retired early by eating cat food; or about the ten best cities for jobs, or the three best fields to get degrees in; or the top ten reasons people don’t get hired; and so on. As I see it, the underlying message of these stories is always IF YOU AREN’T DOING WELL, IT’S YOUR FAULT. If you just lived in the right place, made the right investment decisions, ate the right foods, had the right degree, wore your hair the right way, had the right attitude and so on and so on, why you’d be fine.
I think that folks get this kind of subliminal messaging all day long every day. If you watch a tv show, it’s underlying message is, I think, almost always that nothing is wrong, everything is fine, and if anything is wrong, it’s because some people are weak and deserve to fail. The glamourous face on the magazine cover reminds you that if you were young and beautiful and ‘with it’, you’d be fine. We are constantly reminded to ignore what we KNOW about the world around us from our own lives and the lives of the people we know, and to believe that the fictionalized ‘reality’ presented to us by the media is more real.
And in that fictional up-is-down ‘reality’, the legions of economists spouting nonsense are for real.
“If you just lived in the right place, made the right investment decisions, ate the right foods, had the right degree, wore your hair the right way, had the right attitude and so on and so on, why you’d be fine. ”
Exactly right. If the “little people” would just accept their place, of permanent servitude to the rich, everything would be fine.
The rich and corporate overlords simply want a re-run of Feudalism, Feudalism 2.0.
Under Feudalism 2.0 everyone else would be working for them non-stop and STILL being indebted merely from buying (crappy) food, (lousy) shelter and (poor) health.
You’re absolutely right. This is probably the reason that such a large percentage of the population are taking anti-depressants.
Excellent analysis. As one of the long term unemployed I agree. Were being subtly scapegoated by certain sectors of society. Its not overt or even necessarily intentional,but its becoming increasingly obvious , or is it? I think the bias against us works like this. If your poor or unemployed or both its YOUR fault because YOY sucker and so am I, so don’t ask me for BOO and I won’t ask you for BOO. OH by the way want to buy something from me? We’ve all been hammered flat by this simple message.
Malfunctioning from our pt. of view, not from the pt. of view of the elites that are profiting hugely from the way there being run. Why would they want any real change is the reality. They want MORE of the same and NOW.
it is so important to be robbed by the ‘right’ kind of people…..
http://www.donmarquis.com/readingroom/archybooks/wolf.html
archy
I can’t tellya how many times I’ve felt this way. Shrug and keep moving. Thanks for telling us tho. Makes me feel less alone and I’m sure there are many others.