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The economic reports are starting to come out for May and while there are those economists and Beltway Village Idiots Pundits who are making “gee, everything is just fine” predictions, the verifiable numbers easily refute this attitude.
First up is the monthly report from payroll processor ADP on the private sector jobs creation for May (via Reuters):
The ADP report showed private employers added a scant 38,000 jobs last month, falling from a downwardly revised 177,000 in April and well short of expectations for 175,000. It was the lowest level since September 2010.
The report boded poorly for the key U.S. non-farm payrolls report at the end of the week. Credit Suisse lowered its estimate for Friday’s employment number to 120,000 from its previous forecast of 185,000 and its private payroll estimate to 135,000 from 200,000.
ADP’s number has been weaker than the government’s private payrolls figure for 12 of the last 14 months, making Friday’s government numbers likely to come in above ADP’s report, Credit Suisse said.