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“So be it”

9:56 am in Uncategorized by dakine01

"crisis management"

"crisis management" by howard.hall on flickr

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Yesterday, I wrote about my prediction for an “official” double-dip recession. One of the points I covered was the release by the Commerce Department of the second quarter GDP figures (along with the downward revision of the figures for the first quarter 2011 back to before the start of the Great Recession/Lesser Depression.)

Today, I have seen a couple of articles pointing out that the (lack of) government spending at all levels has been a large factor in the “disappointing” GDP figures. First up is this blog post from yesterday’s Washington Post with the title “GDP Shocker: ‘Much of the drag was government’:

So what was the problem? 

Government, according to Faucher. “The major drag came from government, on both the federal and state and local sides. Government subtracted 1.2 percentage points from growth in the first quarter, with the federal government accounting for about two-thirds of that,” he said.

Hoocoudanode, right? Read the rest of this entry →

The (Official) Double Dip Moves Closer

10:43 am in Uncategorized by dakine01

"just take one dip and end it"

"just take one dip and end it" by peyri on flickr

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Back about six weeks ago, I predicted that the economy was headed for an official “double-dip” recession. Today’s Commerce Department report on the economy showed the second quarter of 2011 GDP growth at 1.3% but also reported a downward revision to the 1st quarter GDP from 1.9% to .4%. This is after the original 1st quarter numbers had been revised upwards slightly from 1.8% back in June.

The economy grew at a 1.3 percent annual pace in the second quarter after expanding just 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year. First-quarter growth was revised from the previously reported 1.9 percent increase. 

While the recovery stepped-up in the second quarter, economists had expected a stronger 1.9 percent reading.

Fourth-quarter [2010] growth was revised to a 2.3 percent rate from 3.1 percent.

Now, I have been using the phrase “officially a double-dip” because for the millions of people among the long term un and underemployed, we’ve never left the Great Recession/Lesser Depression. It has been all one long scene of watching our unemployment run out, our savings and retirement plans get cashed in and spent while trying to survive and keep a roof over our heads. And this is not just limited to those folks covered by the official un and underemployment lists but includes the new college graduates from the last few years trying to find employment in their fields. It also includes the folks who gave up and filed for Social Security if they were eligible, just to have some money coming in. It includes all the folks who are now considered “independent contractors” or “self-employed.” Read the rest of this entry →