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In the coming up on two years that I have been writing about the economy, jobs, un and underemployment at this little corner of the Intertoobz, I’ve tried to admit when my predictions have been a bit off. Like here and here where last summer I predicted we would be in a double-dip recession by the end of 2011. While we didn’t fall back into recession on the time frame I envisioned, I still see it as quite possible.
I do hope I get to admit being wrong on that. I so very much want to believe the economy is really improving and the jobs picture will brighten but I just can’t shake the feeling that it is all smoke and mirrors.
Claims plunged by 50,000 to 352,000 in the week ended Jan. 14, the lowest level since April 2008, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected 384,000. A Labor Department spokesman said the decrease reflected volatility seen during this time of year. The four-week average, which smoothes out fluctuations, decreased to 379,000 last week from 382,500.
Jobless claims were projected to decrease from 399,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 363,000 to 405,000. The Labor Department revised the previous week’s figure up to 402,000.
I am not at all surprised that last week’s figures were revised upwards as that is the pattern over the last few months at least. I did not make an official prediction but will admit that I thought this week’s number would be back well above 400K. Once again, I do prefer to be wrong on these.
But then I see articles across the Toobz like this from Tuesday from US News (via Yahoo) with the headline “Are We Entering a Jobless Recovery?” and I just want to weep at the incredible combination of stoopid and duplicity to that gives us such a headline. Read the rest of this entry →