"Good News and Bad News" by Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com on flickr

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Well, here we go again. As usual, the past couple of weeks there have been a few articles on how the economy really isn’t THAT bad. In fact, that was a large part of the title of this article from McClatchy while USA Today offered up this from a Maria Bartiromo interview with the head of AIG, Robert Benosche (with a McCainesque “There’s a core of strength to the economy”). However once again, the reality on the ground rears up to refute the cheerleaders. Today’s (Thursday, August 18) Initial Unemployment Claims report for last week is out and the numbers are back over the dreaded 400k line once again (via Reuters):

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 408,000, the Labor Department said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 400,000. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 399,000 from the previously reported 395,000.

Given that the trend the last few weeks has been for an upwards revision of the previous week’s numbers, I am not at all surprised at the upward revision from 395K initially reported to the 399K (although since I did not write a post on last week’s report, I can’t claim to have officially predicted the revision.)

Last Thursday, CNN had this article showing the lost jobs holes each state has to crawl out of to regain their pre-recession jobs numbers, especially when the new job seekers and residents for each state are factored in. Meanwhile, we got to ‘enjoy’ President Obama’s photo op Midwest bus tour this week (not to be confused with Cincinnati’s own Midwestern Hayride). Even though the lack of jobs has been an economic crisis for months years now, the elected officials, when they see fit to do something seem most intent on doing the wrong things. Marcy Wheeler has taken a few whacks at the stupidity of “free trade,” deficit reduction clueslessness, and the White House propensity for rhetoric over accomplishment, but I have to chime in with a big WTF over this NY Times article from this past Sunday: Read the rest of this entry →

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I’m not an economist so this is a fairly easy prediction for me to make. I’m basing this prediction on how the weekly Initial Unemployment Claims have gone up this month (see here, here, and here plus tomorrow’s post when I write it). Or at least, the numbers have not dropped as much as anticipated. Either way, things are not improving.

Amazingly enough (economists claim to be surprised all the time, I get to claim actual surprise when something surprising really happens), there have been a few news articles from different outlets, pointing out some unpleasant economic truths. First up is this article from Monday’s (June 27) USA Today:

Whether the economic recovery in the U.S. can continue could depend on a single factor: consumer confidence. Confidence is important because consumers who are upbeat about prospects tend to spend more, driving corporate profits and job growth. Companies hire more employees, boosting spending, growth and confidence.

…snip…

According to a monthly survey released last week by Consumer Reports, households that earn less than $50,000 have been extremely downbeat on the economy every month since the survey’s April 2008 launch. Such households make up half of the U.S. population. Meantime, affluent households — those that pull down $100,000 or more a year — have been feeling on average positive about the economy since February 2010.

The primary factor behind the disparity: jobs. Affluent households have seen little impact on job prospects overall. Meanwhile, low-income households have seen a net decline in jobs for 23 out of the past 24 months, according to the survey.

Please do click through and read the whole article as it offers a number of reasons besides those I’ve extracted to show how the affluent have benefited in this “recovery” while the rest of us have struggled.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech yesterday (Tuesday, June 7) to the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta, GA. Only one speech. Yet looking around the Toobz at the various headlines at news sites on this speech, it must have been an all things to all people speech as I’ve found at least four different perspectives presented, some of them directly contradictory.

The most prevalent theme appears to be The Benbernank as cheerleader (links embedded in titles):

McClatchy: Jobs report aside, Bernanke sees rosier second half of 2011

LA Times: Bernanke predicts stronger recovery in second half of year

AP via MSNBC: Bernanke sees stronger growth later in the year

Then there are the deficit hawk headline writers:

AP via USA Today: Bernanke: We ‘urgently’ need to fix the debt problem (with the same AP article as MSNBC)

NY Times: Fed Wants Priority Put On Deficit

The almost cheerleader:

Washington Post: Bernanke: Economy can withstand recent setbacks

And finally, the seemingly contradictory:

Reuters: Bernanke glum on growth but gives no stimulus hints

Bloomberg: Bernanke Says Accommodative Policy Needed for ‘Uneven’ Economic Recovery

So taken all together, it seems that things are bad but getting better except where they aren’t; everything is going to be just fine; we need a stimulus except where we don’t; and except for that pesky jobs thing, it’s all good.

Meanwhile, in today’s ‘water is wet’ articles, Jamie Dimon whines to the Benbernank about the new banking rules:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon asked Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke whether regulators have gone too far by reining in the U.S. banking system and are slowing economic growth.
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I had to laugh (albeit ruefully) when I saw this opening from Jon Walker at FDL Action this morning:

Almost any national health care debate in this country is almost entirely disconnected from real-world examples, which is tragic given that facts have a well-known liberal bias.

My bold. Why did I find this worth laughter? Because the bolded part is applicable to just about every policy issue written or talked about by the DeeCee Political crowds and their Beltway Village Idiots Courtiers in the TradMed. Pick the issue, any issue, and the discussion emanating from DeeCee sounds like it is coming straight out of an alternate universe.

By now, most folks reading me know that I write frequently about the (lack of) jobs and the problems facing folks looking for employment; whether they are like myself and among the long term un and underemployed or the folks just entering the workforce with newly minted college degrees.

Today, we have the Initial Unemployment Claims (via Bloomberg) report from last week, and guess what? The economists are once again “surprised.” From the Bloomberg article:

Jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 424,000 in the week ended May 21, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 404,000. The economy grew less than forecast in the first quarter, a separate report showed.

…snip…

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 47 economists ranged from 390,000 to 420,000. The Labor Department revised the prior week’s figure up to 414,000 from the 409,000 initially reported. There were no special factors behind last week’s increase, a Labor Department official said as the figures were released.

IMNSVHO (In my not so very humble opinion) I think the economists are making it all up as they go along. I’m not sure any group of people can be so consistently wrong on so many levels.
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spin cycle by Robert Couse-Baker, on Flickr

After having bounced up to 474K a couple of weeks ago, the Initial Unemployment Claims for last week dropped for the second week in a row, falling back down to 409K after falling last week to 434K (revised back to 438K today). From Reuters:

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell 29,000 to 409,000 last week, the Labor Department said. 

The bigger-than-expected drop eased fears that a large increase last month reflected a fundamental deterioration in the jobs market, buttressing the view that the run up was due to auto plant shutdowns and other one-time factors.

…snip…

While the initial claims decline was more than economists’ expectations for a fall to 420,000, they remained anchored above the 400,000 level that is normally associated with stable job growth for a sixth straight week.

While any drop in Initial Unemployment Claims is a positive, it is only a faint ray of light within otherwise dismal economic news. Tuesday, CNN had an article on new graduates struggling to find jobs in their chosen career fields, even when coming “highly credentialed.”

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The brutal job market brought on by the recession has been hard on everyone, but especially devastating on the youngest members of the labor force. 

About 60% of recent graduates have not been able to find a full-time job in their chosen profession, according to job placement firm Adecco.

And for those just entering the workplace, a bout of long-term unemployment can affect their career plans for years to come.

The NY Times follows CNN and does their version of this today:

The individual stories are familiar. The chemistry major tending bar. The classics major answering phones. The Italian studies major sweeping aisles at Wal-Mart. 

Now evidence is emerging that the damage wrought by the sour economy is more widespread than just a few careers led astray or postponed. Even for college graduates — the people who were most protected from the slings and arrows of recession — the outlook is rather bleak.
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While there hasn’t been a lot of economic news for me to rant about today, there have been a few articles I came across in my search of news sites that help to continue to paint the not-so-pretty picture of life in the US these days. First up is this from today’s (Wednesday, May 11) Hartford Courant about layoff notices for Connecticut state employees:

HARTFORD—
On a somber day in state government, the first employees started receiving layoff notices Tuesday in a process that could eventually reach more than 5,000 state workers under a worst-case scenario.

Gov. Dannel P. Malloy ordered the layoffs of 4,742 employees in more than 40 agencies, but that number could increase by hundreds if more cuts in state programs are approved by the legislature.

Because many of the employees are being notified individually and in person, the process of notifying all of them could take weeks. Tuesday was marked by confusion among state employees as many did not receive a notice and they remained unsure if they would have a job in the coming months.

I and many others have concentrated mainly on the actions of the Republican governors but the reality is, most all of the states are struggling to balance their budgets and have been forced to cut jobs. Probably the biggest difference between states with Democratic governors and legislatures and those run by Republicans is the Democrats aren’t (at least outwardly) aren’t cutting the jobs while simultaneously cutting taxes for their campaign contributors.

The Hartford Courant’s Rick Greene offered five reasons why the layoff notices are a good thing. I find the first reason quite telling in itself:

1. Republicans will be forced to admit they actually do like some aspects of government when they realize services they want will be eliminated — like teachers or actually finding someone to answer the phone at the DMV.

Of course, I also have no belief that any Republicans anywhere will actually admit to there being valid government services. It does highlight one of the aspects of the US political systems where (theoretically) there are negotiations between the two dominant parties with compromises and all folks working toward the common good. Yeah, I know, but I still have to believe it is possible for the system to work as otherwise, it means we are all wasting our time and I refuse to give in to that belief.

MSNBC’s Alison Lin had this report from the government on job openings in March:

The government reported Wednesday that there were 3.1 million job openings in March, up slightly from the previous month. About 4 million people were hired in March, also a slight increase over the previous month.

Still, the Economic Policy Institute reports that there continues to be more than four jobseekers for every job opening.
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photo: inoneear via Flickr

There are roughly 25M to 30M Un and Underemployed people in the United States today. Some of the millions show up in the base statistics provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics while other groups do not. Among the groups that do not show are people who have been declared “self-employed” as well as new college grads, yet both groups are full of people trying to find gainful employment in professional fields.

Yesterday (Monday, May 9) Business Week (via Yahoo) had this article on how wonderful things are for the 2011 new college grads:

The class of 2011 is enjoying the best job market for new grads since the 2008 financial crisis, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. It’s being driven by gains in finance, energy, and technology, says Edwin W. Koc, NACE’s research chief, who foresees younger workers filling a backlog of jobs after two years of stagnant hiring. 

In Silicon Valley, postings have doubled from two years ago at technology career website operator Dice Holdings (NYSE:DHX – News). “It’s quite a stunning comeback,” says Lance Choy, director of the career development center at Stanford University. Postings on Stanford’s online job board for full-time positions surged 36 percent to 1,900 in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a year earlier.

Sounds wonderful for those new grads, right? Well, not so fast there Bunky. A few weeks ago, USA Today had a similar article but while also mentioning the percent increase of new jobs for new grads this year, also let slip the unpleasant reality:

The increase in open positions means employers have half as many applicants per job now than at this time last year: 21.1 applicants this year vs. 40.5 in 2010. 

Yes, it is a good thing that the percent of new jobs available to new grads is up but that good news has to be tempered by the reality that there are still so many applicants for each job. My SWAG is that the 2011 applicants are competing with the 2010, 2009, and 2008 applicants as well.
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hawk by kfwk_lobo, on Flick

After seeing yesterday’s opinion piece at CNN from David Frum (See this blog post), I wasn’t quite as surprised to see another opinion piece today on the lack of jobs. Of course, today’s (Tuesday, April 26) from Eugene Robinson at the Washington Post probably won’t get much play because Robinson tends to be liberal and we all know liberals aren’t considered Very Serious People, so can easily be ignored. Nevertheless, Robinson does have a platform at the Washington Post, so he might get read and even acknowledged as having some right behind his words:

What is it about the word “jobs” that our nation’s leaders fail to understand? How has the most painful economic crisis in decades somehow escaped their notice? Why do they ignore the issues that Americans care most desperately about?

Listening to the debate in Washington, you’d think the nation was absorbed by the compelling saga of deficit reduction. You’d get the impression that in households across America, parents put their children to bed and then stay up half the night sifting through piles of think-tank reports on the kitchen table, trying to calculate whether there will be enough in the Social Security trust fund to pay benefits beyond 2037.

And you’d be wrong. Those parents are looking at a pile of bills on the kitchen table, trying to decide which ones have to be paid now and which can slide. The question isn’t how to manage health care or retirement costs two decades from now. It’s how the family can make it to the end of the month.

Unfortunately, Mr. Robinson will most likely continue to be drowned out by the drumbeat of the deficit hawks. Looking through the various news sites today, I found a couple of articles promoting deficit hawkery though in a rather subtle way. First up is this from USA Today:

Americans depended more on government assistance in 2010 than at any other time in the nation’s history, a USA TODAY analysis of federal data finds. The trend shows few signs of easing, even though the economic recovery is nearly 2 years old.

A record 18.3% of the nation’s total personal income was a payment from the government for Social Security, Medicare, food stamps, unemployment benefits and other programs in 2010. Wages accounted for the lowest share of income — 51.0% — since the government began keeping track in 1929.

The income data show how fragile and government-dependent the recovery is after a recession that officially ended in June 2009.

…snip…

Accounting for 80% of safety-net spending in 2010: Social Security, Medicare (health insurance for seniors), Medicaid (health insurance for the poor) and unemployment insurance.

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