There are few economists who would defend the decision to allow Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt last September. Its collapse induced a worldwide panic that sent stock markets plummeting and caused credit to freeze up. In the subsequent months, the downturn went into over-drive, with the United States losing almost three million jobs from October through February.
This set of events has led almost everyone to conclude that the trio who let Lehman go under – Treasury secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and the then-head of the New York Fed, Timothy Geithner – erred badly in this decision. That seems a reasonable judgment.
However, the conventional wisdom includes a corollary that is much less obvious: because the Lehman bankruptcy was a disaster, US taxpayers must honour in full all the debts of all the banks.
This corollary could put US taxpayers on the hook for trillions of dollars in commitments that the Wall Street boys apparently made on our behalf. Before we cough up the dough, we might want to consider whether Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner were not quite as stupid as the current conventional wisdom would imply.
The problems that followed from Lehman did not just stem from the fact that the government was not honouring Lehman’s debts. This was an uncontrolled bankruptcy of a huge investment bank in a world where the official line was still that everything was under control. The Washington Post had even run a column the day before Lehman’s collapse ridiculing those who were making negative comments about the state of the economy.
In this context, an uncontrolled bankruptcy of a major investment bank was sort of like a sledge hammer in the face: a rather rude and unexpected blow. The most immediate consequence was that Reserve Primary, one of the largest money-market mutual funds in the world, suddenly could not pay its shareholders in full, because it had tens of billions invested in Lehman. In the wake of Lehman’s bankruptcy, Reserve Primary did not know how much, if any, of this investment it could recover. In the post-Lehman world banks could suddenly no longer trust each other, and the interbank lending rate went through the roof.
But now we have had six months to adjust. The Fed and Treasury are now guaranteeing deposits in money-market mutual funds. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation doubled the size of the bank accounts it guarantees, and non-interest-bearing accounts of any size are guaranteed. In addition, the Fed is now lending hundreds of billions of dollars directly to non-financial corporations, establishing a channel of funding that goes outside the banking system.
These and other measures have restored some measure of stability to the financial system. Now that we have these measures in place, is it still true that we can’t subject Citigroup, Bank of America or Goldman Sachs to a managed bankruptcy (aka "nationalisation") without the world coming to an end?
With a managed bankruptcy, all the insured deposits would be fully covered. However, the government would only repay bondholders a portion of their investment, depending on how severe the banks’ losses are. By not compensating bondholders in full for their losses, the government could save taxpayers hundreds of billions, perhaps even trillions, of dollars.
In addition, a managed bankruptcy would also help to address the problem of moral hazard created by the bailouts thus far. Investors did not pay adequate attention to the health of banks and other large financial institutions like AIG because they assumed that the government would bail them out if things went badly. If the government makes these investors eat some of their losses, maybe they will put more thought into their investment strategies in the future. This could also let some big investors make some of the "sacrifices" for which fiscal conservatives – including some big investors – are so eager.
The silence of the fiscal conservatives on the vast sums going to the banks is hard to understand. After all, how can someone get so upset about the prospect of $200m being spent to re-sod the National Mall in Washington, but be unconcerned when $160bn – almost 1,000 times as much money – goes out the door to AIG?
The sums of money going to bail out the financial industry dwarf the waste and pork that get John McCain and other budget hawks excited. Yet they are strangely calm about the bailout money. In fact, the amount we spent patching the financial system could well be large enough to make the Social Security system fully solvent over its 75-year planning horizon, yet we barely hear a peep from the Peter Peterson Foundation and its merry band of anti-Social Security crusaders.
The only answer we ever get in response is that we have no choice. But just six months ago, Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner thought we could make a much more extreme choice. They were wrong then, but they are not stupid. We should go back to the bankrupt Lehmans and see if we can do it right this time.



32 Comments




Great post Professor Baker, very accessible, thank you.
Thanks to Eureka Springs for opening the digg.
Finally we get to hear some common sense for a change.
An excellent perspective. Thanks.
This is an approach that I have advocating pretty much since the Lehman debacle. We are constantly being given strawmen choices. It doesn’t have to be either an uncontrolled bankruptcy or an unlimited bailout.
We need to restructure these companies and dismantle the purely paper economy, not just push it around to other places. This is the problem with the proposed Geithner bailout. It seeks to keep the paper economy in place by having the government hoover up all the losses in it. Yes, this is as crazy as it sounds.
Thanks for this post. This bit in particular caught my eye:
Could you tell us more about this? Although this idea has popped up repeatedly in the discussions here, I did not know it had been implemented. Do you have more information on how this actually works? Who are they lending to specifically, and how does that money make its way back into our economy?
What can be learned, too, from the $400 billion that somehow vanished at the time of the Lehman bankruptcy??
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…..6Cz4OKDh.U
Lehman Unit Shrank $400 Billion Before Bankruptcy
By Linda Sandler
Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) — Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s brokerage unit lost more than $400 billion in assets in the months before its parent filed for bankruptcy protection, according to the trustee overseeing customer accounts.
Lehman’s holding company filed for bankruptcy Sept. 15 claiming $639 billion in assets, using four-month-old data. The wholly owned brokerage unit shrank to less than $100 billion in assets from $500 billion “a few months ago,” according to a Sept. 19 court statement by James Giddens, the trustee overseeing the settling of Lehman brokerage customer accounts by the Securities Investor Protection Corp.
The loss in value was caused by “changes in the market,” according to Giddens, a partner at law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed, who spoke at a bankruptcy court hearing in Manhattan. The runoff may indicate Lehman’s customers, including many hedge funds, canceled and closed out trades as they began to doubt the firm’s ability to navigate the credit crunch, bankruptcy analysts and lawyers said.
continued at active link above~
Some advice from Uncle Hank!
–Reuters
Paulson renews financial rules reform push in FT
Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:20pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called for an overhaul of financial regulation in an article in the Financial Times on Tuesday, largely reiterating a plan he proposed in March 2008.
The former secretary’s article comes amid expectations that his successor, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, will reveal within days a plan to set up a so-called systemic risk regulator to monitor and manage risk in the financial sector.
No single agency now has this role. Many lawmakers expect that the Federal Reserve will be designated to assume it, although some wonder if the Fed is up to the job.
Today’s financial crisis “has made abundantly clear that our financial system would benefit from a regulator whose focus is on risks across the financial system,” Paulson said.
There is support for giving the Fed this duty, he added. “It would require the Fed to have access to information from a broader set of financial organizations, including hedge funds and systemically important payment systems.”
He said such a regulator would need “the power to intervene if it concluded that the financial system was at risk.”
He called on Congress to find ways to unwind failing non-bank institutions to avoid a repeat of the 2008 collapses of investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.
“Any rewrite of financial regulatory authorities must include the explicit federal authority to intervene and wind down a failing non-bank in an orderly manner,” he said.
~continued at Reuters
AIG is a viaduct to the banks who covered hedge fund bets against the housing market, I gather.
So, you’re saying that the taxpayer was put on the hook as a result of the decision taken by Paulson et al. as government agents to allow Lehman Bros. to fail?
Nothing stupid about it. We were set up and now, Timmy gets to play Sec Treas for his pains. If he’d stopped Lehman’s collapse we wouldn’t be having this transfer of our entire economy out of the USA, because Lehman was where most of the hedge funds, derivatives and CDS’s were.
We’re bailing out China and Saudi Arabia first. This was a calculated takedown of the US.
Will we now be a cat’s paw for the International banksters to fight their fascist wars like Germany was after the Wiemar Republic? Starting to look like it to me.
Yes, Paulson proposes to be master of the universe, as well.
Did Hank forget he helped bring on the flood? Paulson vs Fuld
Hope taxpayers have access to Paulson’s family jewels?
i think you are completely out of line re bailing out china and saudi arabia first. really not a fan of how those countries are run, but it does us no good to redirect our anger away from the true sources of our problems.
it’s a right wing trick to redirect our very justified anger towards foreigners. don’t fall for it. even when dems do it.
Lynch, D-MA “…this is a goddamn disgrace.” Strong language for a hearing.
What??!! Two wrongs don’t make a right? Isn’t that the way the pols always work? /s
Agreed. This is an in-house problem.
“fooorget about it”
During a Bill Moyers special on the Banking crisis Moyers reported that Hank Paulson had stated that efforts to stop executive compensation would not hold water. Did Paulson push FOR EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION? A case of the Fox guarding the hen house?
my very sincere thanks.
Dya think?
I found this WaPo article yesterday. It’s about efforts in April 1998 (President’s Working Group on Financial Markets) to get a grip on this looming fiasco:
Dean was giving our financial press hell yesterday at his sight “Beat the Press”. He explained the real estate bubble in 3rd grade arithmetic terms. It was in reply to the financial press corps repeated claim “nobody could see it coming”. Required reading for financial illiterates such as myself. Thanks…
panel 1 of hearing complete. panel 2 up in a few minutes.
Code Pink is certainly making their presence known in the hearing room. Sic ‘em, ladies.
$1 million, $11 million, whatever.
This gotcha politics has got to stop.
Bank executives need to be able to
focus on the business of banks,
which is making loans. Or not.
brooksley born was one of the heros of that time. too bad she lost. if you want more of that story, i wrote an oxdown diary on it last year: Which Idiot Decided Not to Regulate Credit Default Swaps?
Excellent!
Done read that Selise. You’ve been doing great work. It’s how I got started looking back on this. In that WaPo story, Rubin actually blames Born for being too “strident.”
The Wiki article on the Working Group on Financial Markets cites a 140 page Treasury pdf report called “Hedge Funds, Leverage, and the Lessons of Long-Term Capital Management” written after the failure of LTCM.
Obviously no one read it.
It describes our current circumstances exactly. It seems to me that the LCTM episode is what all the major players are looking at to inform their current actions.
We are, as a country, fucked. Congress is owned, lock, stock and barrel by corporations and massive defense contractors. They will always ensure that their meal tickets get what they want at the expense of We the people. Perhaps the people who are recreating the Boston tea party are begining to get a glimmer of what our govt has become. The main thing seems to be the care and feeding of fat cats. Massive defense spending, new bleeding edge technology weapons systems. New Aircraft Carriers-which means new carrier groups(more ships)-against whom are we arming ourselves in such a frenzy? Our current systems are years ahead of anyone else on earth. We spend, every year, more than the entire rest of the world combined on defense. For what? So a corporation can go into a country and make B$$$? KBR feeds off the DoD. If we had a draft KBR would not exist. Our health care system lies in tatters. To feed the corporations we pay(as of 2002, per person, on health care)=US-$5267; Canada-$2931; Germany-$2817; England-$2160. Yet for all our spending, the most of any country in the world, what have we gotten. The US has a lower life expectancy & higher infant mortality than any other first world country. Yet we will have to pay “higher taxes” to get universal coverage, which they already have. Why do we pay more? Because the corporations-remember, the ones who own congress?-want to squeeze the the goose(thats us, what is left of the middle class)as much as possible. TINSTAAFL* There Is No Such Thing As A Free Lunch. Everything we get, every law that congress passes, helps the corporate oligarchs, not We The People. They ensure, thru money(legal bribes that congress has allowed themselves, plus the free pay raises every year)and access that they will never lose. There are 2 different systems of justice in the US. One for the rich and powerful and one for the rest of us. The rich and powerful can get away with murder, drug crimes, DUIs, and fraud-as long as it is from the peons, not from “their kind”.
I am almost 60 and I have been watching since I was a child how labor is always put into debt to the banker-rich- and how the rich always get off scot free. The US had its century, now it is slowly sliding over the cliff and into a different form of govt. WE are slowly getting there, closer each election. I have studied history, I know that political attacks were much worse a hundred yeas ago. But, we were much more educated back then-have you ever tried to take a HS test from 100 years ago? Notice how hard it is?-than now, Now we are mostly sheeple, ready to believe everything that the MSM tells us(corporate owned) We are just about the most insular, arrogant-without cause, because we are far poorer than any other 1st world country-and easily led by demagogs. We are a nation of sheeple, waiting for the carismatic leader who will turn our country into a theocratic facist dictatorship with the oligarchs in control of the wealth. 5% rich and 95% very poor. Hopefully, my lifespan will be over before the experiment that was once the beacon of hope for the world. A republic of for and by the people. Now, ignorance rules. The sheeple multiply daily. Give them beer and TV and they are happy. Give them cheap junk from WalMart, low salaries, and credit cards so that they can buy all the goodies that they are told that they want, and they are happy. Meanwhile, our schools teach crap. No govt, no civics, no history, just social studies. We are running out of steam. The best and the brightest now come from other countries. We can not even win at sports we invented. Slovenly, rigid thinkers, Authoritarian Followers. Robots.
sorry for whoring my old diary when you’ve already read it! thanks for the link to that ltcm pwg report. i have it in my notes, but don’t remember reading it and don’t think i included it in my timeline. probably should
The CW of Liddy et al is that the people who were paid retention bonuses are the ones required to stabilize the situation. When talking about his worry that some bonuses will be returned accompanied by resignations he noted that he is committed to complete his task. That opens the door to get other people in to replace the creators of the disaster. No one is irreplaceable.
That’s pretty strong “completely out of line”. What line?
How about this?
http://www.reuters.com/article…..7020090318
You must be taking my comments as a racist statement or something. It sure looks to me that alot of the $$$ is going OUT of the country. And, as we all know, the Fed has no oversight as it is an independent bank.
Replying to Selise @12. the reply function didn’t work