That is what Alan Blinder tells us in a Washington Post column today. Blinder tells us that the vast majority of academic economists and people in the financial industry oppose efforts to make the Fed more accountable to Congress. (He also bizarrely asserts that "very, very few" people support more Congressional control of the Fed. This would seem to be inconsistent with the support for the Paul-Grayson bill to audit the Fed.)
Blinder tells us why more congressional input into monetary policy would be a bad thing. He notes that the Fed will start to raise interest rates at some point when the economy starts to recover. He then presents the hypothetical scenario: "Would we like to see the FOMC members called on the congressional carpet to explain why they are ‘killing jobs’?"
Very good question. Just about everyone I know would say "yes." As phone records for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner from his days as President of the New York Fed show, Fed officials are in constant contact with top figures in the financial industry. There is no doubt that they would loudly hear the complaints from the industry if they were not raising interest rates fast enough to meet the industry’s concerns about inflation.
The financial industry tends to be more concerned about inflation than the rest of us. While there is a large body of research that shows that modest rates of inflation (3-4 percent) have little negative economic effect, the financial industry holds large amounts of fixed rate long-term debt. This debt loses value even if there are just small increases in the rate of inflation. For this reason, the financial industry tends to be much more vigilant in opposing inflation than manufacturing or other industries or the public at large, who may benefit from seeing the real value of mortgages and other debt eroded. Given the excessive influence of the financial industry on Fed policy, it would be perfectly reasonable for those not tied to the industry to desire a countervailing force on Fed policy.
It is also worth noting in this context the Fed’s propensity to error on the side of excessive tightness. In the mid-90s, most of the members of the Board of Governors wanted the Fed to raise interest rates because they argued that the unemployment rate was getting too low. At the time, the unemployment rate was 5.6 percent, the level that most academic economists viewed as consistent with a stable rate of inflation.
Alan Greenspan, who was not an academic economist, argued that there was no evidence of inflation in the economy, in spite of the relatively low unemployment rate. He insisted on keeping interest rates low and allowing the unemployment rate to fall. The unemployment rate did eventually fall to 4.0 percent, with little perceptible uptick in inflation. This allowed for the first period of sustained real wage growth for most workers since the 60s. However, these gains were only possible because of the quirkiness of Greenspan’s economic outlook and his extraordinary prestige at the time as Fed chairman.



15 Comments




This is why our victory on this is so sweet. They literally didn’t see us coming.
If taxpayer money is involved, we have the right to know what they’re doing with it. Was that so difficult?
Inflation has had a long range devastating effect on the economy, by shortening the length of maturity of governments. It gradually eroded the long-term capital needed to build things as opposed to file clerking or burger flipping. Industrial firms folded or moved out. It all comes down to inflationary monetary policy led by the Fed.
Excellent reminder.
I think that the rest of us, in our daily lives, forget about this underlying dynamic most of the time.
Nevertheless, it’s clearly a key factor driving what we’re seeing politically.
The Fed appears to have been captured by
offshore banking, fraudulent ‘banksters’, tax haven proprietors, and speculatorsWall Street, along with a majority of Congress.Terrific post title.
The scare of inflation is just a hobgoblin. It’s used over and over to make us afraid. I’m not an economist. So I set about to read as much as I could about this whole inflation deal. Besides Dean Baker’s books, I read “Wall Street” by Doug Henwood. I read “Secrets of the Temple”, all 800 or so pages, by William Greider. Stephen Zarlenga’s “The Lost Science of Money” is next after I finish “Web of Debt” by Ellen Brown.
As Baker points out, working people do just fine with a little inflation. Their houses are worth a little more. And the idea that we can’t have full employment because we have to save the banksters was argued against by Keynes. If the government issued debt free money like Lincoln’s Greenbacks or the Revolution’s Continental and used it to employ people, the GDP would go up and people would purchase goods and services. We could keep supply and demand in balance. The interest would return to the Treasury to be loaned out again for affordable housing, health care, etc. It would keep circulating within the country and not go off shore or go to the military industrial complex.
I know that all this talk of auditing the Fed and also the idea of not paying interest to the banksters by putting the Fed under Treasury seems pie in the sky. But with this coalition of Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich and Alan Grayson and others, this could be our moment to redirect the conversation.
Hi alank, I have no idea what you just said. Do you?
Do you have any empirical evidence for the idea that the kind of inflation we’ve had in the US has shortened “the length of maturity of governments.”
Can you clarify what you mean by “long-term capital” and explain how inflation in the US eroded it?
I certainly hope you’re right. But I doubt that Ron Paul is in favor of the Government engaging in deficit financing and monetizing the debt. I’m not even sure if Grayson would support that. The millenium we’re looking for will come when Obama fires his economic team and brings in Dean, Joe Stieglitz, Jamie Galbraith, Paul Krugman, Warren Mosler, Bob Reich, and Elizabeth Warren. Until then we’ll probably be voices crying in the wilderness.
I’m a big fan of Ron Paul and glad to see his bill moving. Still, there is some danger in putting the setting of interest rates in the hands of the politicians…for obvious reasons.
You mean you are a Randian economic Darwinist, or just a tin man?
We’ve already seen the danger of putting the setting of interest rates in the hands of the bankers. That hasn’t worked out at all. There used to be a cap on interest rates of 9%. It was the Democrats who got rid of that cap in 1979 when Carter also appointed Volker who then raised them to over 20% plunging the world into a horrible depression. Farmers who have to borrow money each year as operating loans until their crops come in were forced off their land as the wealthy who lived on capital gains made fortunes. Private bankers should not control our monetary system. We should.
But I agree that right now I wouldn’t want any of our so-called representatives in charge of anything. So let’s get rid of them all.
I prefer that strategy too. Jamie Galbraith is my hero. So is Michael Hudson who advises Kucinich. He and Kucinich are supporters of Stephen Zarlenga’s American monetary institute. Check out Kucinich on the site and their ideas that were first put forward in the 1930s. I find it very compelling. Start a chapter in your neighborhood.American Monetary Institute
And yes, Grayson and Paul are probably not on the same page as Kucinich, but it’s good that the Fed should be attacked by lefties instead of just the Libertarian goldbugs.
The other guys, Krugman, Steiglitz,… are reformed neo-liberals whereas Galbraith has never strayed from Keynes and has suffered in the wilderness because of it. However, now it’s obvious that he was right and that Milton Friedman and the Chicago School is total hokum.
I am learning a lot here!
What role might this new development play: NYT “Attention Shifts to China for Private Equity Industry”?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/business/global/20blackstone.html?em
My older brother’s been heading up emerging markets for JP Morgan Chase for the last 15 years and they hurried him over from London to Hong Kong in the summer of 2008. He loves the shit out of this ‘raping’ of everything in sight. *sigh*
mm, not sure Stieglitz ever strayed, but thanks for the links and the suggestion. Are you starting a chapter in your neck of the woods?
Inflation is the tool used to ruin the middle class, and inflate the riches of the top few.
We used to get raises based on inflation. Then theye started saying that created inflation so it was an excuse to no longer give raises.
The Fed has conviced us all that what they do with money policy is to keep inflation down, while it actually kept wages down because raises in our pay were inflamitory to businesses bottom line.
It’s amazing the well educated people that have fell for all this bullshit.
We fell for the inflation, just like we fell for trade is good for our economy and jobs.
We fell for them saying our companies getting products made overseas at cheap labor to sell back to us, would give us cheaper products letting us buy more with our money. They just forgot to add that we no longer would have jobs to buy the cheaper products.
We are still falling for the bull that we need to bring in people from all over the world to fill jobs here, While our people are unemployed, and that we needed the Mexican labor because Americans wouldn’t do the jobs they do.
We keep falling for the bull and never learn. Saving the Banks was more important than saving our people. Saving the automakers so they could move more production overseas and cut jobs here.
We fall for all the bull like protectionism, communism, socialism. facism, and all the other isms they use to instead of putting ourselves first, we must put ourselves last for the good of the world economy and big money interests.
We have fallen for so much bull, that the American dream has become bull.
Our Country is fastly become one giant pile of bull, and soon all that bull will swallow us up and we will just be part of the giant pile of bull.
So Congress can’t be incharge because Unions call them about jobs but Fed Bankers getting calls from Banks that pressure is ok?
America was designed to work with competing pressure offseting any one group holding power.