Brookings economist Robert Litan picked up the gauntlet thrown down by Paul Volcker and others, and put out a lengthy paper defending the major financial innovations of the last four decades. Litan surveys the field and pronounces most of what he sees to be good.
While there is certainly some merit to many of the points that Litan makes, he presents a very incomplete picture. A fuller discussion is likely to be more critical of recent innovations.
Credit cards are a good place to start. Litan notes the explosion of credit card use over the last three decades and sees this as a great advance. He notes the enormous convenience of credit card use over cash or checks. Litan dismisses the idea that credit cards increased consumer indebtedness, noting that the ratio of credit card debt to mortgage debt did not rise over this period. He even claims that credit cards have helped foster growth by providing financing to many small businesses in their start-up phase.
There is a lot here to chew on. Certainly credit cards do facilitate payments. However, it used to be very common for businesses to accept personal checks. Don’t try that one today. For the vast majority of people who do have credit cards, they certainly are easier to use than checks, however those with mixed credit histories, who can’t get credit cards, don’t stand to gain from their convenience.
Of course almost anyone with a bank account can now get a debit card, so this should leave them as well off as when they could pay with a check (unless they hoped to use a bad one). But in the post-credit card, pre debit card era, credit cards did not unambiguously increase access and convenience for everyone.
There is also the obvious point that banks have found ways to slip fees into credit and debit card bills that many people would probably not pay if they were fully aware of them. The most notorious of these fees is the overdraft fee attached to debit cards, which can often be several times the size of the purchase being made. While new legislation is limiting the ability of banks to impose such fees and requiring greater transparency, any assessment of the merits of credit cards should acknowledge these costs.
This raises another important issue with credit cards – their cost structure. The industry imposes a fee that averages close to 2.0 percent per transaction on credit card purchases. (It’s worth noting that these fees are about half as large in most other countries.) Since the credit card companies generally prohibit retailers from offering cash discounts, this means that cash paying customers must subsidize those who pay with credit cards. (Fees are somewhat lower on debit card purchases.) If lower income customers are more likely to pay with cash or debit cards, then the banking industry has effectively created a sales tax, the proceeds of which go to subsidize the purchase of higher income consumers.
The issue of cross-subsidies also comes up in reference to the fees that the industry charges. In the debate over increased regulation, the industry claimed that if they could not charge high late payment fees and were limited in their ability to jack up interest rates, then they would have to curtail the frequent flyer miles and other bonuses that they offer to their customers. It remains to be seen whether the industry will follow through with this threat, but if they do, it implies that another way in which their credit card innovation might have been used to subsidize higher income households at the expense of lower income households.
In examining whether credit card debt has led to lower savings, Litan picks a very low bar. Mortgage borrowing exploded, as homeowners were eager to borrow against bubble-inflated house prices. They got a further push from lenders anxious to have mortgages to sell in the secondary market. The fact that the growth rate in credit card debt didn’t exceed the growth in mortgage debt over this period can hardly be seen as a compelling argument that credit cards did not negatively affect savings.
In fact, the ratio of credit card debt to disposable income nearly tripled from 1980 to 2008, rising from 2.7 percent of income in 1980 to 8.9 percent by the end of 2008. Of course, this doesn’t prove that access to credit card borrowing led to a lower savings rate, but we may not want to cross it off the list of suspects as quickly as Litan. Credit card borrowing is no doubt a mixed picture. In some cases it gives households an opportunity to sustain their standard of living through bad economic times. However, many families do have problems managing their money and easy access to credit cards could make their situation worse.
This brings up one final issue with credit cards. Litan gives credit cards an unambiguous plus for their impact on growth because many small businesses have been financed through credit cards. This one requires a bit more reflection.
More than half of small businesses fail in their first four years. A small business that is only open for a year or two is probably not benefiting the economy. The resources that are diverted into this business could likely have been better used elsewhere in the economy. Instead of making capital and labor available for a viable business, the failed small business owner has diverted it to some hare-brained scheme – just as a pointed headed government bureaucrat might do.
Obviously, all small business start-ups do not provide a benefit to the economy. Now, let’s take the subset of small businesses that are turned down for bank loans by our highly innovative financial sector and which therefore must rely on high cost credit card borrowing. Presumably a much higher share of these businesses fail than small businesses in general.
If credit cards make it easier for people with hairbrained schemes to start small businesses can we say that they have helped foster economic growth? That seems a bit of a leap. I don’t have the data on this and neither does Litan, but until one of us does, we better take away the plus that he gives credit cards for their impact on economic growth.
In sum, the story of one financial innovation, credit cards, is much more mixed than Litan claims in his assessment. They certainly have increased convenience but at a considerable cost. It is noteworthy that the credit card transaction fees are much lower in Old Europe than in the United States. Also, East Asia is far more advanced in allowing the use of electric money transfers from cell phones. So, we may want to hold off on the celebration for the U.S. financial industry’s development and promotion of credit cards.



18 Comments







“Litan notes the explosion of credit card use over the last three decades and sees this as a great advance.”—-and this person -Richard Wolff- ties this usage to the lack of real wage increases.
“If lower income customers are more likely to pay with cash or debit cards, then the banking industry has effectively created a sales tax, the proceeds of which go to subsidize the purchase of higher income consumers.”—ding,ding,ding !!
“The fact that the growth rate in credit card debt didn’t exceed the growth in mortgage debt over this period can hardly be seen as a compelling argument that credit cards did not negatively affect savings.”—–absolutely correct.
“If credit cards make it easier for people with hairbrained schemes to start small businesses can we say that they have helped foster economic growth? That seems a bit of a leap.”——-not only that, but such fails to include the bankruptcy that the person who tried to start the small biz with a credit card debt will file. And then the CCard companies will point out how much they are losing due to bankruptcies.
Thanks Mr.Baker.
So if debt (leverage) is sooo great, how come the economy has grown successively slower as debt/leverage has increased?
you know, finding an instrument that worked is not a defense of allowing all instruments to market, you need to look at the liteny of instuments that were abused before you can even think of looking at the insturments that worked out
ya, credit card innovation was good for the economy, while rates were regulated, they are now eating away at the economy
my business has can suport a ten percent markup, we cannot afford to add credit card fees, we become incompetitive, so that brings our markup down too low to continue doing business
we stopped taking american express and next we wil stop taking discover
by the way
I think it is INSANE the market allowed credit cards to charge MERCHENTS when a customer uses the card
THE MERCHENT is LENDING money to the credit card company, yet THEY get to charge the merchent for that priviledge
it is really insane
Keying off my 2, I think that plain vanilla financial products are the most pro-growth. Ain’t gonna happen, but anyone want to take me up on it, on principle?
From the paper:
So we aren’t going to score the trillions of dollars taxpayers have to pony up to pay for letting Wall Street and its pet economists play with our lives?
If people were paid a living wage there would be no need for “credit”. Credit is just another name for belonging to the company store.
Ding. Ding. Ding. We have a winnah!
Damn oh damn damn, praise from Echan. I jest, of course. Thank you for your agreement. You know it all seems so damn simple. Henry Ford got it but we seem to have lost the message. In the city in which I live the “living wage ” is $22 ( a little down from a few years ago) but the”average” wage of the working person, contractor, delivery person, baker, fireman averages out at at about $17. Waitpersons, supermarket workers, hotel slaves obviously get a hell of a lot less. To cut along story short. People who work here cannot live here and so have to perform a costly commute every day.
To end my diatribe. The problem is that the working people have no money left over to spend back into the economy. It don’t work.
My diatribe is that people who work at Wal-Mart can’t afford to shop there.
Loosely related, we’re having ‘fun’ at my diary.
Another related point is that if the average(!) did come out to the ‘living wage’ level there could still be such a gap between the richer and the poorer that the number of the poorer who would fall below the living wage level would bankrupt the entire system.
It isn’t the average so much as the mean wage which has to be >= the living wage level.
If it’s me & Bill Gates I know I’m below the average and the mean.
I was going to say. I’m old enough to remember when having a checking account was mostly for wealthy people, or, for people like my folks who weren’t rich, used their checking account for making big ticket payments like the mortgage by mail. People paid cash for their cars. Nobody we knew had credit cards. People carried and paid a lot of bills by cash and you didn’t have to have a lot of cash or pocket change to buy stuff. That was in the 1960′s. I know my Dad made less than $10K a year and managed to raise 6 kids not in luxury but not in poverty either.
It shows up the fact that there isn’t enough competition to keep prices down to what their customers can afford. And, I suppose it also shows they will keep inching prices up to force people to open up their savings and spend every single penny saved until the people go broke — as happened this time around, even discounting the mortgage problems.
I believe it was hoped people could save by investing in more house, but the Rich jerked the mortgages around until they became close to worthless. They won’t allow people any way to store money away. They take it all.
If there was real competition it might hold down prices which would ease some of the pressure on people to delve into savings.
The huge increase in household debt and then the huge increase in loans based on home equity and then the reverse mortgages all were indications we were headed for a disaster. This was no accident.
Credit cards and debit cards are not interchangeable from a merchant standpoint, particularly with merchants who rent products, such as car-rental services. I’m not sure what the reason is, but many have a policy of not accepting a debit card for payment. They see that “Debit” designation on the front of the card, and they will hand it right back to you.
We no longer use credit cards and cash is sneered at. I carry two suitcases full of beads.
I have a credit card that acts like a debit card. I can use it for either, but if I designate ‘credit’ at point of sale, I get airline miles. Yet it still immediately deducts what I ‘charge’ from by bank account. I never have to pay the bill, as it is automatic. And if my purchase exceeds the cash in my checking account, the transaction is denied. Haven’t tried to rent a car, so don’t know how it works in that circumstance.
I still write checks. I guess I can do that because I live in the middle of Iowa. I got my credit cards paid off in November and I don’t want to start that merry go round again. Had a cash card for a while 30 years ago. It made it too easy to get (and spend) money, so I got rid of it. When I need cash, I drive through at my local credit union, talk to the nice teller and sign a withdrawal slip that her computer types up for me. If I have to use a credit card, I use my company provided American Express card so I have to pay it off at the end of the month and I don’t have to argue with anyone about any fees. I hate fees. Fees don’t buy anything for me or my family. They buy things for people I despise. I do use electronic banking to pay bills because it saves me postage and prevents late fees. Did I mention that I hate fees?
If Mr Litan’s arguments are to be believed, then these financial innovations collectively suffer from dysergy. In other words, the whole is less than the sum of it’s parts. And defending the utility of the parts on an individual basis provides insufficient justification for thier inclusion in the economy.
Financial sector growth and profits speak for themselves, they are now an excedingly high overhead middleman. And that is obviously bad for the economy.
As for credit cards, they are useful in situations where they replace traditional loansharks. But I’d have trouble justifying the size and nature of our current credit card industry on that basis alone.
Btw, thank you for Beat the Press.
I’ve suggested reducing tax deductibility for corporate interest.
Is the same thing advisable for personal interest?