Confused readers may wonder based on its lead editorial complaining that supporters of Social Security: "pursue a maddening strategy of minimizing the existence of any problem and accusing those who seek solutions of trying to destroy Social Security (emphasis added)."
The piece begins by telling readers that: "THIS YEAR, for the first time since 1983, Social Security will pay out more in benefits than it receives from payroll taxes — $41 billion. This development is not an emergency, but it is a warning sign (emphasis in original)." It certainly is a warning sign. The falloff in Social Security tax revenue is a warning that the economy is seriously depressed due to the collapse of the housing bubble. Double digit unemployment leads to all sorts of problems, including the strains that it places on pension funds like Social Security.
In a sane newspaper the next sentence would be pointing out the urgent need to get back to full employment. Instead the Post tells readers:
"Too soon, this year’s anomaly will become the norm. By 2037, all the Social Security reserves will have been drained and the income flowing into the program will only be enough to pay 75 percent of scheduled benefits. If that sounds tolerable, consider that two-thirds of seniors rely on Social Security as their main source of income. The average annual benefit is $14,000. Those who care most about avoiding such painful cuts ought to be working on ways to bolster the program’s finances — and soon, when the necessary changes will be less drastic than if action is postponed."
Let’s see, it would be intolerable to have Social Security pay 75 percent of scheduled benefits in 2037, but one of the Post preferred cuts is raising the retirement age to 70,a 15 percent cut in benefits when fully phased in. So the Post thinks it would be just fine to have beneficiaries get 85 percent of scheduled benefits in 2037.
Of course doing nothing today, or for the next decade, or even the next two decades, does not imply that beneficiaries will see their benefits cuts by 25 percent in 2037. The Post may not be familiar with the way Congress works, but it tends to wait until issues require action. They would know this if they had heard about the Greenspan Commission, which was established in 1982 to deal with Social Security’s last crisis. It produced a set of fixes which is now expected to keep the program solvent for 54 years, and no one missed a check.
While it would not be desirable to wait until the system was literally facing a shortfall, as was the case when the Greenspan Commission, there is little obvious harm to waiting now in terms of the program’s finances. A Greenspan Commission size fix put in place in 2030 would leave the program fully solvent for most of the rest of the century.
There is also a very good reason for delay. The opponents of Social Security have been spending huge amounts of money deliberately promoting misinformation. Peter Peterson, the richest and most prominent opponent, has repeatedly asserted that the Social Security trust fund does not exist. This flat earth view of the program has been given respectful treatment at the highest levels of government. When Peterson put on a daylong program on the deficit in the spring both of the co-chairs of President Obama’s deficit commission took part in the program as did former President Clinton.
This massive effort to undermine confidence in the program has been largely successful. Polls show that substantial majorities of younger workers do not expect to receive their Social Security benefits.
That is not a good environment in which to debate substantial changes to the country’s most important social program. Since there are several decades until the program faces any real problems, it is entirely reasonable for those who support the program to focus on educating the public about the program’s financial health and to seek to delay any major changes until the Peterson-type misinformation campaigns have been defeated.
Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He is the author of several books, includingFalse Profits: Recovering from the Bubble Economy.



40 Comments







It’s been mad for quite a while.
A little bit off topic: The Dow Jones Average lost 265 points today on news of the anemic, (nonexistent), recovery. I think it’s wonderful news! I hope it loses another 500 tomorrow and 1,000 on Friday! The only thing that is going to get Congress to act on jobs is if the Wall Street investors and the banks start losing a whole lot of money. Apparently only rich investor pain is enough to get the attention of congress and this White House, so bring on the pain!
Not off topic at all. 9.5% unemployment (or 16.5% depending on how you count it) does not
make for a good investment climate.
Although some corporations are doing their best to strip the cupboard bare.
What, you feeling so generous you want to bail out the banks again?
Hell no! I want a job but obviously MY economic straits aren’t getting any action. Maybe bank pain will.
The game is so rigged with insider trading, dark pools, and naked short selling, there are many who make their biggest gains when the market tanks. ie: Goldman Sachs and Jeff Green.
The ones who get really burned are the little guys with IRA’s, other Retirement plans and college investment accounts. These accounts always buy and hold (like suckers). They cannot short sell and make profits in a declining market. They get whacked.
IOW, it’s the little peoples’ money being looted, as usual.
And because his masters like it, Obama Likes It That Way, Too.
I’ve reached a similar conclusion over the last few weeks. I think these large ups and downs in the market are manufactured and exacerbated by the fact that companies like Goldman et al want to make more money.
I no longer believe that market fluctuation has anything to do with the true state of the economy.
When was there news that it was accelerating? Or that we were even recovering? When did the market climb on that news? It’s all bullshit and the media assigns reasons to it. Or the Goldmans of the world circulate talking points memos within the office, so when an idiot at WaPo calls and says “Why’d the market go up today?” they all know what to say.
It’s … All … Bullshit…
I was thinking about this too. The markets are rigged. A static market would not provide any opportunities for manipulation, but one with many ups and downs does. And it is important to note that this market has been over this same ground dozens of times since the beginning of the year, up then down, then up again. Consider too that despite this players like Goldman can go whole quarters and never have a single unprofitable day.
Amen!
Google “Plunge Protection Team” and see how and by whom markets are manipulated.
Markets are never not manipulated and even though the MOTU rake off tons of money through laundering drug money and other proceeds of the international criminal cartels they still want more and more and more.
Yeah, I wouldn’t shed a tear. And to think that they want us to put our retirement savings into that house of cards…. one that can cut a lifetimes savings in half in a matter of months.
Peterson says we should be scared that there *might be* a 25% drop in Social Security retirement benefits 25 years from now. How about being scared that private pensions will go into default and be handled by the insolvant PBGC. Or that our 401K’s will drop 90% in value overnite when the house of cards we call Wallstreet goes POOF.
That fix by Greenspan raised regressive payroll taxes on workers so that Reagan could cut taxes for the rich. Same thing is going on today. Cut Social Security and Medicare, food stamps and unemployment benefits so that the taxes cut on the super rich can remain low and so that hedge fund managers have their benefits taxed at the 15% capital gains level instead of the higher income tax rate as puny as even that is on rich people.
Keep in mind that the US government (and hence social security) CAN NOT BECOME INSOLVENT. The idea that the government, which makes money, can run out is not just silly, it is one of the more damaging illusions of current discourse.
Well you are correct that they can print as much as they want but in fact merely creating the certificate does not instill value in it. Only the belief of the recipient or tendee that the currency has value can create that value.
THIS YEAR we’re beginning to use some of the interest income from the Social Security Trust securities, rather than letting that interest compound for future use.
We won’t be depleting principal from the fund for years yet – and the point about full employment is a good one – the sooner payroll tax revenues rebound the longer we put off using principal to pay benefits.
Raising the income cap for OASDI insurance taxes doesn’t seem to get mentioned for some reason.
Extremely valid point. In fact, raising taxes on the rich never seems to get mentioned except in the context of the national emergency it is that the Chimp’s tax cuts are expiring at the end of this year.
The Post seems to be a GOP reprint service on Social Security. I wrote letter after letter to them the last time and op-ed’s picked up my comments so they know the truth, but they simply do not care about the truth – it is easier to be a reprint service.
Age 68 or 69 seems baked in – age 70 does not have the votes as far as I can see, but the refusal to end the wage cap is beyond ny understanding. We could even do as Robert Reich suggests – drop the tax rate for the payroll tax – if we raise the cap. Heck the 2% of payroll income increase could be split 1% for the employee and 1% for the employer – I feel generous and would split with the employer if I can get the cap ended.
But Peterson wants to only talk about means testing so as to turn Social Security into welfare. The idea that we are all in this together must be killed and we must continue of the class warfare that the rich are winning, so Pete wants “means testing” so as to convey Social Security as one more burden on those productive rich. Let the rich get large benefit checks because that means we all pay a lower tax rate and the feeling that we are all in this together can continue.
Has the Washington Post Gone Mad?
Is the Pope Catholic?
“Has the Washington Post Gone Mad?”
Does Sally Quinn Love Wedding Surprises?
I have alway loved that picture.
MAYBE WE CAN REMIND PETE the Fuk,how much we gave to Wall Street
http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2010/0710bottari.html
Pete and The Republicans do not want just a giant piece of the pie. They want the whole pie.
They got the system gamed with the unaccountable funding of the MIC. We print play money and give it away – to the MIC. The MIC gives some of it the the Taliban. On and on it goes. That’s a done deal.
Now Pete and The Republicans need all the Social Security Revenues, to boot.
They want it ALL.
Hey, the Washington Post wouldn’t be MSM if it wasn’t propaganda. It may look like they’re mad but mostly it’s that they are bought and paid for.
This Fall, Congress could vote on Social Security cuts proposed by the conservative Fiscal Commission. Republicans and some Democrats are already saying they want to cut benefits by raising the retirement age. We need to act now, before the election, to make sure we keep cuts off the table. I signed a promise to oppose Social Security cuts. We need to send a message to Congress. Can you join me?
http://pol.moveon.org/sspetition/?r_by=22466-17455959-E0R71ax&rc=paste
Here’s a draft of the thoughts I plan to share with friends and family to get their support top. Your feedback is welcome:
Social Security benefit cuts whether benefit amount or retirement age is wrong. We pay from our own earnings to finance Social Security and we’ve earned the right to receive the benefits. Every wage earner receives a benefit statement annually and many of us use it to plan our retirements. Since the Reagan administration, the percentage of our earnings we pay-in to Social Security was increased to create a surplus big enough to cove the cost of baby boomer retirees.
Raising the retirement age is social policy to address a funding issue. It amounts to a 100% tax on Social Security for people ages 67 to 69. Moreover, telling people ages 67-69 to work without guaranteeing a living wage is wholly irresponsible policy. Instead, fund our social security safety net by raising the cap and/or increasing the pay-in and/or plugging corporate tax loopholes.
The deficit is a legitimate issue but there’s no good reason to conflate war debt and irresponsible tax cuts with safety net programs, or to change the retirement age or to even decrease benefits by 30% in 25 years. Part of the problem Social Security faces is a demographic shift, another part is the biggest recession since the great depression which was not without perpetrators. Where is the social justice in pinning the funding shortfall issue wholly on recipients?
Too many people in our nation rely on Social Security to provide them with subsistence level income during retirement and many of the rest rely on it as part of their income because they paid into it and count on what they were told, what their monthly benefit would be.
Sorry. The deficit is not a legitimate issue, and there is no problem with Social Security, we need to believe in right now. See here and associated links.
Obama’s deficit commission (aka The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility) is made up of 18 members appointed by President Obama, Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner.
Appointed by Obama, the commission’s co-chairs are by Alan Simpson, former Republican senator and well known fiscal conservative who worked for the 1990 deficit reduction agreement and Erskine Bowles, who began his business career with Morgan Stanley and later formed an investment banking firm. Bowles served as Clinton’s chief of staff for two years during which time he worked with Republicans to negotiate the Balanced Budget Act of 1997.
Obama placed four other members on the commission: David Cote, a Republican businessman, President and CEO of Honeywell; Ann Fudge, former Chairman and CEO of Young & Rubicam; Alice Rivlin, Clinton’s budget director and Andy Stern, former president of the SEIU who resigned his position with the union to sit on the board of a drug development company.
The members placed on the commission by Harry Reid are, for the most part, conservative Democrats who have worked for fiscal austerity for years, if not decades (Kent Conrad and Max Baucus). The exception is Dick Durbin, a liberal from Illinois – so far the only commission member to speak out against reducing the deficit by cutting Social Security. Nancy Pelosi appointed John Spratt, conservative Democrat from South Carolina and chairman of the House Budget Committee; Xavier Bacerra, D-CA, who is quoted as having said it will be necessary to make “tough choices to build a prosperous, debt-free future for our children,” and Jan Schakowsky, another liberal Democrat from Illinois in favor of protecting Social Security and Medicare.
All the commissioners appointed by Republicans are fans of Rep. Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap for America’s Future,” which would eliminate Medicare, “reorganize” Social Security, eliminate capital gains taxes, slash taxes on corporations and balance the federal budget with spending cuts. Ryan was appointed to the commission by John Boehner.
The remaining Republicans on the commission have ideas for deficit reduction such as capping federal spending at 20% of GDP each year and passing a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced federal budget.
We’re screwed.
No, we’re not. There are plenty of third parties to vote for in the Fall, and there’s another election in 2012. You know major political parties have disappeared before. The Federalists, the Whigs. The way the Democrats are going and given the possible wave effects of the Internet, if the Democrats keep pissing everybody off across the political spectrum, the way have been, they could be gone with the wind by 2012 or 2014. At this point, who would shed a tear?
Did we elect Obama on a FIX SS platform? WTF? Is this guy really this clueless? The attack by Gibbs and the general hostile tone from this crowd doesn’t bode well for the rest of us. We ‘ve gotta stop rewarding these people or we’ll just be earning more and more of their contempt.
Of course not. They are propagandists. Like courtroom lawyers, propagandists are professional advocate who in good conscience say things they don’t believe. It’s part of their profession.
It would be mad for them to say things that would diminish the credibility of their cause in the eyes of the voters, but their tactics are clearly succeeding in convincing voters to support their evil cause.
Dean, what would you do in your spare time if it were not for the economic reporting found in the Washington Post and on NPR?
They’re like The Onion but less reliable.
What your not saying here is the problem is in 2018 or so they will have to start drawing on the Trust Fund. That is Government Bonds. the MOTU’s do not want to repay that with taxes on them, as you normally would pay back government obligations. They also know raising taxes on the peons (us) would be… well, probably bloody.
I know you know this, most here do. So, I can see going forward with these facts that the system is solvent and fine. Then, see if the MOTU’s blink and bring up the obligations… then more would wake up and say, tax the fuckers so we can pay our debts. It could lead to a revolution in thought on taxes and the rich!!
Their safest strategy is to get the peons to take it on the chin, once again, grumble, vote for Palin, Romney, Obama, whatever… it won’t matter to the MOTU’s wallet, at least not directly. I hope we don’t fall for the scam. like Obama seems to have (whether by ignorance, of full on partner, I don’t know).
After Ms. Weymouth took over the WaPo and cut a deal with Rupert Murdoch for almost complete content control of the paper, the WaPo has become – at best – a rag. If you’re looking for the WaPo to take lead on anything or produce anymore rational, progressive work, you’re dreaming…
The WaPo is DONE..
Social Security cuts necessary due to the large baby boomers generation: Funny, how no one mentions the effects of globalization on salaries. Less money in = less money out.
Don’t ever believe the government until it’s proven by independent investigation.
WaPo hasn’t been sane or readable for a long time. Same goes for the NY Times. Since Bill Bradley started playing house with that execrable Sally Quinn almost 20 years ago or so. The Grey Lady since their editors shat their pants over 9/11. Katie Ghraham is rolling in her grave…”Punch” Sulzberger is looking for one to roll into.
Does anybody ever talk tariffs? Tariffs would protect and create jobs that would pay more into SSI. Any tariff money would be used to improve SSI. To hell with this World Economy B.S. Moving jobs overseas only helps the rich get richer.
Tariffs would be raised around the world – a trade war – with export jobs lost. The trade off might be positive overall for the US but our treaties prevent us from even starting down this path.
No wage cap on SS makes the most sense – and if investment income can be added to wages in the payroll tax base, all problems are solved.
I think we need to revisit those trade treaties…. they need some modified away from the free trade concept. We need to get back to a system of balanced trade.
We might limit balance of trade deficits to some percentage annually, say 15%.
I’m not opposed to selective tariffs, in principle, but we need to recognize that countries willing to export to us in return for electronic money are adding to our aggregate real wealth. When that costs us jobs we need to make more jobs instead of stupidly worrying about deficits, the harm from which is entirely in our minds and our misplaced policies towards them.
Anyway, we have lots of work to do in this country re-building our infrastructure, educational systems, energy foundations, cleaning up our environment, re-structuring our nearly broken health care system and other things. If other people want to ship us material goods in return for USD, which cost us nothing to issue, then that’s wonderful, and eventually they’ll slow this down when their populations realize that they’re shipping us their real wealth for the honor of holding USD.
That said, I do think that we need an industrial policy that will protect manufacturing companies that we think are vital from foreign competition. This isn’t really a matter of what is most efficient from the point of view of the theory of economics. It is a matter of what manufacturing capabilities we think are necessary for us to have in this country. We may want and need certain capabilities for reasons of national security, but we may want others because we’re expressing national values of one kind or another.
Economists tend to think that the world is one economic system. That is true to some extent. But it is a fragile economic system where markets can be disrupted by local political systems, international cartels, global elites, near and unregulated monopolies and financial structures, and wars. We cannot make the mistake of viewing this system as anything close to an ideal market economy that we can rely on permanently. So, not everything should be evaluated from the point of view of economic efficiency and the market. Other values have to enter into our calculations and our policies also.
I’ve just replied to this post of Dean’s here.