Note: Derrick Crowe is the Afghanistan blog fellow for Brave New Foundation / The Seminal. Learn how the war in Afghanistan undermines U.S. security: watch Rethink Afghanistan (Part Six), & visit http://rethinkafghanistan.com/blog.
Talks between Hamid Karzai and Abdullah broke down today, according to CNN, meaning there will be no power-sharing arrangement to head off a highly problematic runoff vote.
That would be bad enough in itself, since the administration recognized the difficulties posed by getting a legitimate poll done before winter sets in and had hoped a power-sharing deal would provide legitimacy while dodging the dicey balloting. But, things actually get much worse:
According to the source, Abdullah will likely announce this weekend that he will boycott the runoff presidential election slated for November 7, a runoff that had been scheduled after intense diplomatic arm twisting by the United States. [emphasis mine]
One hopes a CNN reporter simply failed to choose his/her words carefully and meant instead “drop out of” the race, because if Abdullah is going so far as to boycott the race, Afghanistan could become a much more dangerous place than it is already. Recall that earlier this year, Abdullah supporters were promising protests “with Kalashnakovs” if he simply lost in a fair vote, and, as if to prove their point, reports indicated a frightening flow of weapons toward Abdullah’s political base. Now we’re potentially talking about him urging people not to participate and declaring the entire runoff process illegitimate.
This has already been a terrible week for the U.S. as President Obama wraps up his sixth review of Afghanistan policy with a meeting of the Joint Chiefs of Staff today. Earlier this week, IED attacks pushed the U.S. death toll to its highest monthly level since the U.S. invasion. Yesterday, we learned that Hamid Karzai’s drug-trafficking, electioneering mafioso of a brother was on the CIA payroll. If the CNN report is accurate, things may be about to get much worse.



9 Comments




Derrick, if the US government is backing away from Karzai and co., why would you think that it means things will get worse?
I don’t think backing away from Karzai is what will make it worse. I think that Abdullah’s boycott could set the stage for inter-ethnic violence.
Derrick, weren’t you whipping up the idea that sticking with Karzai’s government was immoral, delegitimizing and counterproductive?
Yup. There is a big assumption here, though, which I would be thrilled to be wrong about. My assumption is that the President is about to add troops to shore up the Karzai regime, frosty relationship notwithstanding. Now, I could be totally wrong about that, but it seems to me we’re being prepared for at least some version of a troop increase. And if that’s the case–that we’re about to add troops to shore up the Karzai government–at a moment when Tajiks might break out those rifles, that seems like a recipe for a whole extra layer of ugliness. I don’t want our troops there in the current situation, and I certainly don’t want them added and tasked with protecting Karzai’s cartel when a whole extra conflict takes shape. So no, to answer your implication, I am not changing my position about sticking with the Karzai government.
By the way, where ya been? I feel all lonesome when you don’t come play. :P
I’ve been reading. Enjoyed your discussions w/ondolette. We’ll keep making you work.
As for the troop increase, it’s pretty definite.
But support for Karzai definitely isn’t there in this administration.
When Obama sends sixty thousand more troops they can force the Afghans to do whats right at the point of a gun. Ha! Ha!
I heard Obama was thinking of sending less troops but how does this news change things we can send more troops, withdraw, or keep our troops safe in bases and avoid causalities/damage to our Pride.
What course does it look like we will take.
Derrick, I asked about a pipeline to the Caspian earlier. Maybe you didn’t see my post, but I would like to know if it is relevant to our presence there. Would you have any information on that?