I am voting for Republicans. My reasons for voting for Republicans would probably make those Republicans choke. Let us start at the beginning.
In the past century the cost of computing a given mathematical calculation fell by a factor of over 600 billion. Since 1940 the progress of computers exploded. Economist William Nordhaus believes that the modern computer architecture developed around World War II coincided with a “tectonic shift” in growth patterns. We can construct mathematical models of the ensuing trends and extrapolate them into the future. Several people, including futurist Ray Kurzweil and computer scientist Hans Moravec, predict using these models that PCs will reach the raw computing power of a human brain by the 2020s and that the second half of the 21st century will be dominated by superintelligent machines.
Others like philosopher Nick Bostrom and economist Robin Hanson are uncertain about this outcome but ascribe it considerable probability. Since its consequences would be enormous this means that we must adjust our plans. I agree. We cannot simply dismiss the possibility that a 70-year-old trend will continue another 15 years or even 70 years. The consequences might seem absurd, laughable, and outrageous. Bizarre consequences do not however void a conclusion based on sound logic. And powerful mind-enhancing drugs, genetic engineering, and immortality seem at least as likely if you take superintelligent machines seriously.
Some see these technologies as blessings ushering in utopia. In particular they view immortality as positive. I completely differ on immortality’s desirability. A fountain of youth would warp the institution of the family beyond recognition: the childbearing rate would have to drastically slow to maintain a steady population. That might mean no children or children only for the wealthy. Think In Time or Children of Men.
With immortality there is no temporal structure to life and no sacrifice. You can have it all: you can be both drifter and doctor. You can live fifty years with one wife and fifty years with another. Failure has no consequence. Nothing matters. And who could refuse this “gift”? Would not refusal be suicide, a sin in many religions? The concept of immortality seems a siren beckoning toward the rocks of meaninglessness. I do not think that humans are capable of maintaining the fetters of mortality of our own accord—it seems our nature to hearken to the beautiful voices of the sirens and struggle against our bonds. But by breaking the fetters we would lose our humanity.
A more obvious problem is that AIs or other entities might decide to simply eradicate mankind. This would less likely produce a dramatic Terminator battle than the equivalent of humans killing bacteria. That unfortunately does not make for exciting films. Or intelligent life could totally fail at managing its technology and destroy itself. Nuclear weapons already make this possible.
Remaining human must be enough for us. Some like Francis Fukuyama imagine that future technologies can be regulated and controlled. They are correct in acknowledging the danger but their proposed solution is lacking. Our capabilities could easily grow so advanced that regulation would be impossible. Developing such powers would be suicide—the only question is the form of destruction. We must change course on a global level or it may soon be too late. A worldwide treaty is needed to block threatening technologies.
Nor must we split hairs over details or delay unnecessarily. Disaster is unlikely in the next few years but both social change and technological advance are rough processes. It would be far better to miss benign technologies than overshoot. The price of renunciation may be a fearsome Scylla but Charybdis is worse.
Not all technological advance should stop. New energy sources to replace fossil fuels will be necessary. Space exploration too is desirable. Unfortunately, few are giving much thought now to picking and choosing technologies. One lever that voters do have is influence over general economic growth. Either one party or another will encourage more growth and technology. We can choose all or nothing. Given the risks of choosing all, I think the responsible choice is nothing. Opinions will no doubt differ on which party would produce less growth. My opinion is Republicans. It is unfortunate that their foreign policy is less internationalist than Obama’s–that is a source of doubt and conflict for me–and I am considering an exception with the office of President. But for Congress and statewide offices whose powers are more domestic, Republicans get my vote.



24 Comments

If you expect Willard’s policies will slow the development of AI, I believe you’re mistaken. Rmoney has time and time again announced his intent to stroke his friends’ and peers’ egos and bank accounts if elected. That means more war and that means Department of Defense contractors by the bucketful and that means AI and other high tech. In fact, it is really the one major remaining area in which the United States dominates and there are hundreds of billions of dollars in it. If you think pro
businessprofit Rmoney is going to put the brakes on anything that might enrich him or his friends, I believe you need to open your eyes and ears outside that box of fear you’ve constructed around yourself. Killer robots indeed! With a warhawk/profithawk like Rmoney in the office, you can bet killer robots will be more likely, not less.You make a great point. Actually I was just rethinking my position because of the very issue of the Department of Defense and foreign policy. What I have is a conflict of opinions. Essentially my problem is that I end up favoring Republicans on domestic affairs but Obama on foreign policy. The office of President is uniquely powerful on the foreign policy front. So maybe an exception for President makes sense. I will vote a straight Republican ticket for all other offices, however.
You make some very cogent points about the potential dangers of capitalism’s blind rush to technologies that might make more profits in the short term with consequences in the long term which, logically, are unknowable now.
You laid an admirably logical argument out in favor of that position. Frankly, I was impressed. I’m always impressed by irrefutable logic.
It’s why I believe in climate change and evolution, after all.
Your conclusion on for whom you will vote for, however, isn’t logical at all.
Your choice there is the lesser of two evils, both of which will take this planet in a direction which you clearly do not desire. The only difference is how fast you guess they will do so.
Most illogical of you. If you believe that the respective corporate backers of the Democratic and Republican parties will alter the course of American civilization away from the relentless pursuit of unlimited profit by a few even if it costs the rest of the human species their lives, then I believe you are sadly mistaken.
A vote for either is a vote FOR what you quite legitimately fear. I suggest you vote for someone with whom you actually AGREE. Don’t think of it as throwing away your vote. It’s not. It’s voting your conscience, which really feels good(trust me on this, I’ve done it), AND standing up and saying “I do not believe that I am powerless to change the current political system.”
Vote for the third party of your choice if they are on the ballot, if not, write in yourself. If you are in a state where even that is not allowed, I don’t know what else you can do this November other than to abstain.
If enough people realize that, together, we ARE strong enough to change things for the better on a lot of things that we mostly agree on, then we will do so. One way or the other.
It’s happened before. Lots of times. Sometimes without much violence(but always some or the threat of some). But change doesn’t start by continuing to support the same people who are screwing the rest of us.
There’s the possible danger of sociopathic corporations rushing headlong towards quarterly profits (and other conservative terrorists) but then there’s the eventual promise of fantastic reward.
Regulating tech progress is like regulating speech– there will always be countries that allow it.
I diverge from pleasant company in the area of genetics. I hope to see the day when the genes responsible for intelligence are identified and manipulated. Perhaps only then will we enter a new age of reason. I’m sick of stupid, greedy humans. Being human is obviously not enough. There has always been new branches on the evolutionary tree– we could use one right about now! Contrary to popular belief, we’re not the end game, nor are we created in gods image.
(any more than we were when we looked like a shrew)
Oh, great spirit, save us from knuckle-draggers and theists who vote Republican. Snark
Be careful what you wish for, ever read the Poul Anderson short story about the happiness gene?
Aliens coming to earth in a two-creature ship note that the Washington Monument and the Nelson Pillar are being torn down in favor of new structures erected in honor of the current leaders.
The aliens exclaim, “Oh, they’ve discovered the happiness gene! Isn’t amazing how every advanced civilization discovers this?” And they want to go down and help. Because they, too, have the happiness gene and never question the motives of their superiors.
Of course, the happiness gene makes people feel happy, no matter how they are used and abused by their masters, who don’t have the gene.
I’m sure there are very wealthy folk who really, REALLY, like that idea, and with the tremendous advances in genetics, will gamble that it is attainable.
Rod Sterling would like this one.
Some equivalent to the happiness gene may be religion, alcohol, football, etc. Some folks know more about midget mud wrestling than they do politics– as is evident by our current decline.
Although I’m very liberal, I just don’t attribute “sanctity” to the human condition. Just a few more points of IQ might make all the difference.
I definitely agree that the US will be poorer if Republicans win.
Thank you about the argument. The problem I see though is that there is literally no third party out there that addresses my concerns about computers and biotechnology.
And this would be a bad thing…why, exactly? What is so great about a life spent putting oneself in a little bottle, limiting yourself to one career path, one set of intimate acquaintances, never to experience all that there is to this world?
And why should failure have consequences? Why should we be punished for not “playing the game” correctly? Why should your life be destroyed if you don’t kiss the boss’s ass in precisely the right way? Why should we live in fear?
Life needs more mulligans.
Why in the world are we here?
Surely not to live in pain and fear
Why on earth are you there?
When you’re everywhere
Come and get your share
But we all shine on
Like the moon and the stars and the sun
And we all shine on
Come on and on and on on on
— John Lennon, “Instant Karma”
How do you feel about treaties limiting carbon emissions?
A few more points of IQ might not be so bad. My concern though is where this ends. The predictions of people like Kurzweil and Moravec are nothing like just a few more points of IQ.
If there’s a strong treaty on carbon emissions, I’m for it.
(There isn’t one.)
Genetic sequencing/engineering, even in humans I think, is inevitable– and someday, may be necessary for survival.
In the far future, our decedent life forms may be radically different–
i.e. have gills, withstand life on mars, who knows? Religious ideology is slipping away. People will become less superstitious.
I remember a quote by Steve Jobs.
“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.”
Would this continue to hold in a world of immortals?
But if everyone is given a mulligan all the time then we no longer have golf. An immortal creature is not human in any meaningful sense.
I also think that when many people think of immortality they imagine one person or a small group being immortal in a world of mortals. (Let us recall another Poul Anderson tale here, The Boat of a Million Years.) The collective consequences of mass immortality are quite different.
Why?
If you had the option to greatly enhance your, or your child’s life, wouldn’t you?
Environmental/climatic change and population pressure could force us to adapt to sudden and catastrophic changes at some point.
(We are adding over a million people a week to the planet)
But I’m talking about futurism– where anything can happen.
Personally if I was facing that decision then maybe. But what I think we should do is avoid having to make those decisions by never developing the technologies.
That is an argument that has been suggested recently.
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/how-engineering-the-human-body-could-combat-climate-change/253981/
But is it too much to hope for simply preventing the catastrophes?
Or Brave New World. Reengineering the human emotional makeup is definitely not a road we should travel, in my opinion.
Okay Luddites, if you’d like to remain closely related to the chimp, fine.
Just don’t come crying to me after I’ve evolved. I’m not listens to no damn dirty ape.
I’ll be smart, immortal, have the happiness gene, and I won’t give a flying fu@k.
You shouldn’t interpret my comment @ 1 as suggesting that I find your fear of killer robots to be anything less than absurd. Your premise is flawed, thus your conclusion is flawed. You’ve been watching too many bad science fiction movies and now you’re letting your irrational phobia of technology influence you in the real world. I’m sure as hell not going to legitimize or encourage that.
Poul Anderson was a science FICTION writer. Are you suggesting that it’s legitimate to fret about something that was in a paperback collection of short stories? How is that any less ludicrous and counter productive than believing in omnipotent and wrathful sky deities?
That is an incredibly ignorant line of reasoning, Margaret. A century ago, transplant surgery was a subject of macabre science fiction–Frankenstein, anyone?–now, such surgery is common. The same can be said about the type of surgery that enables some folks to change their gender, if they have a few tens of thousands of dollars to blow on this kind of wish-fulfillment.
70 years ago, a science fiction writer named Arthur C. Clarke wrote some stories about bouncing TV and radio signals off of satellites. If you were around then, you would probably have been just as dismissive about the possibility of instantaneous global communication.
So, yeah, I AM suggesting it’s legitimate to give speculative science fiction some credence.
I’m sure he would. He might have already considered it too.
How do they keep the chair so level after six days?
http://wondermark.com/c/2011-11-08-769chair.gif
I would never vote Republican.
That said, the fact that Romney is going to do something does not automatically mean that Obama will not do it. Much as the fact that Shrub did something Democrats hated did not mean that Obama did not do the exact same thing, or, sometime worse.
I know of no reason to believe Obama will curtail defense spending, especially with all that is breaking out all over the Middle East (and being attributed by the administration to Al Qaida).
Very convenient timing for the D of D, homeland Security, CIA, et al. those Al Qaida have, now that the poor and the middle class are about to go over the cliff.
Supposedly, they were going to take defense spending with them, but I see no chance of that with fires alit all over a continent and our people getting killed less than 3 months before Cliff Day.
Voting Republican to remain human?
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