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The wake of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire is getting turbulent:
Egypt’s president on Thursday issued constitutional amendments that placed him above judicial oversight and ordered the retrial of Hosni Mubarak for the killing of protesters in last year’s uprising.
Mohammed Morsi also decreed immunity for the Islamist-dominated panel drafting a new constitution from any possible court decisions to dissolve it, a threat that had been hanging over the controversial assembly.
Morsi took this and other actions within hours after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Here’s a link to the text of PM Morsi’s declaration.
Nobody is yet making a connection between his meetings with HRC and this move, but one might ponder this from 2009:
We look forward to President Mubarak coming as soon as his schedule would permit. I had a wonderful time with him this morning. I really consider President and Mrs. Mubarak to be friends of my family. So I hope to see him often here in Egypt and in the United States.
Clinton’s main job in the Middle East, after satisfying Netanyahu and his ilk, is finding the best dictators our money or threats can purchase. She may have found one this week.
Protests are gathering in Cairo as I write:
Demonstrators for and against sweeping new powers assumed by Egypt’s Islamist president are gathering in different parts of Cairo, a clear show of the deep polarization plaguing the country.
Protests following Friday midday prayers are set to be led by prominent pro-democracy figures, like Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the U.N.’s nuclear agency.
Muslim Brotherhood backers were gathering in front of the presidential palace northern Cairo to support Morsi.
Earlier tonight ElBaradei tweeted:
Morsi today usurped all state powers & appointed himself Egypt’s new pharaoh. A major blow to the revolution that cld have dire consequences
In Gaza, Israeli forces appear to have seriously violated the ceasefire agreement. The issue of changes in what constitutes the free fire zone along the Gaza-Israel border was widely reported to be in play in the Hamas-Israel negotiations mid-week. Mixed signals went out to Gazans. After the ceasefire, many Gazans approached the fence:
The old rule was that if you walked within 300 meters of the prison fence, you got killed. It was a really stupid, cruel rule, that has led to a lot of killing of innocent Gazan inmates, many of them kids.
A lot of people came to believe the old rule was gone, until:
One adult has been killed and 10 teenagers wounded as Israeli soldiers, stationed at the border line between Khan Younis and Israel, opened fire at them, medical sources say.
Witnesses told Al Jazeera that the teenagers entered the disputed area of the “buffer zone”, which is 300m along all the Gaza-Israel borders.
Al Jazeera’s Nicole Johnston reporting from Gaza City said they had received reports that a number of farmers entered Khan Younis in the buffer zone, which ordinarily is a no go zone, to check on their crops.
She said they may have had confused information about that buffer zone as there has been lots of information about the easing of travel restrictions.
Other reports on the death seem more informative:
Medics said Anwar Qdeih, 23, was hit in the head by Israeli gunfire after he approached the security fence that runs along the Gaza frontier — an area that Israel has long declared a no-go zone for Gazans.
A relative of the dead man, who was at the scene, told Reuters that Qdeih had been trying to place a Hamas flag on the fence. He added that an Israeli soldier had fired into the air three times before Qdeih was hit in the head by a bullet.
Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said: “We will contact the Egyptian mediator to discuss the incident.”
Abu Zuhri’s statement is reassuring, and may indicate Hamas truly wants this cease fire to hold.
This is a rapidly developing Black Friday story, and I may update it after I get some sleep.
Updated – 10:50 am PST: Mondoweiss is running this video with the claim that it is of the shootings written about above:
The cease fire appears to be holding, though.
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BBC doing a good job of not clarifying what is happening at the prison fence.
Live updates at the Guardian.
Gaza
The IDF shot dead a man in the Gaza “buffer zone” but is accusing the Palestinians of breaching the ceasefire.
33 minutes ago:
Another good one, ET.
About HRC’s personal friendship with Mubarak, you take diplospeak a little bit too seriously. The job of a diplomat, as a famous quote goes, “is to lie for one’s country.”
And I found this phrase very interesting:
It seems like there is enough ambiguity in the rules to allow the IDF to fire on people at a “time and place of our choosing.”
Morsi’s move is to bring the military under his control, a necessity for civilian rule after 60 years of military rule. The reaction in the streets is a combination of a rearguard action by Mubarak sympathizers, a show of support by Morsl’s supporters, and a demonstration of concern by secular and leftist democrats at the possibility of imposition of a religious state. It is going to take some real political skill for Morsi to hold it together.
My reading is that Hamas really does want the cease fire to hold in order to put Israel on the spot about opening the Gaza borders for export of products and import of goods. If that happens, Hamas solidifies its credibility as being able to smartly play Netanyahu, which is why I expect the IDF will do everything it can to provoke a Hamas reaction and another round or two of reprisals before the situation returns to the same old stalemate. Unless there is a dramatic turn against Israel by the EU or the US. The latter I think is unlikely but it is a theoretical possibility.
Clinton probably didn’t love Omar Suleiman, either. ;o)
Haven’t members of their military also been a major part of their business class?
Yep. A labor movement against their military employers was what turned Tahrir into a revolution. The Chinese might have taken note.
On Suleiman. That is an interesting article. They got their orderly transition with Suleiman and now to Morsi, who was not the US preferred candidate. And there was no regret when Suleiman mysteriously died at one of the best medical facilities in the US. Conveniently cleared the way for Moslem Brotherhood power, if not rule.
Because of its huge military budget (I was going to say “power”) and it’s aggressive strategy of forward deployment it’s easy to fixate only on US actions. But there are diplomatic player much more skillful than the US and national intelligence operations other than the DNI-controlled ones more competent in their activities. Morsi is not likely to become a US puppet. In part because the US needs an alliance with Egypt more than Egypt needs and alliance with the US; indeed an alliance with the US is a liability to an Egyptian leader.
Demonstrations in Tahrir today involved 30 groups. Also demostrations in Sharm al-Shaik and other Egyptian cities. At least one court is defying Morsi’s decree. Ultras al-Alawhy were out in force in Tahrir.
This is some serious popular pushback on Morsi’s attempt to consolidate power.
Hilarious captions on the H. Clinton/Morsi pic.
Hmmm, I’d pasted in quotes earlier from Clinton, Obomba, et.al., but included Christine LaGarde blaming Hamas, supporting Israel utterly, etc.
Yves Smith has this TRNN piece up with Vijay Rasdhad’s take on the fact that Egypt was the main player in the cease-fire (even with al-Jabari’s representatve, though he didn’t mention it), but he also mentions that this unfolded more quickly after the IMF granted Egypt $3.1 billion in loans. Again: post hoc, ergo propter hoc is often wrong, and I missed the last three minutes or so…
Vijay Rashad IMO has the situation exactly right. What he said is that the agreement came out with the Gaza government stronger in spite of Egypt receiving IMF loans. I think that’s the correct reading. Erdogan, as a US ally, and Morsi as a still potential US ally used their “good offices” with the US government to move the wording of the agreement more favorable to Gaza than it otherwise would have been. The IMF might have its opinion, but the resulting agreement did not reflect Christine LaGarde. And rhetorically, both Clinton and Obama supported Israel utterly and were silent about Gaza except for saying that Israel has the right to defend itself against attack. Events will prove whether there is beginning to be a shift in US policy; domestic politics argues there won’t be.
Also, the key thing to watch is whether Israel in fact does end the embargo on Gaza or phonies up an excuse to clamp back down. I rate no more than a 1% Nate Silver Unit that Israel actually allows unrestricted exports from Gaza and less than that for imports that can go directly without having to go through Israel. And also that there are a few Gaza merchants who will like that arrangement.
An interesting analysis of the relationship of Morsi’s action to the IMF deal:
Thanks – a mild snark tag at the bottom might have clarified the cartoon a bit, but who knows for sure…..
— love the term and appreciate your analysis. Up after five hours sleep.
“Prashad” maybe? Can you give us the link?
Prashad, thanks for the correction. Link in comment @9.
Wish it were only snark.
Another wrinkle. Consider this in light of the IMF deal:
Swiss bank accounts would be a dandy source of funds to pay back the IMF, wouldn’t they.
More about the “buffer zone” for the Gaza inmates, in a report from last summer by Harry Fear.
The shift in US policy has been announced: more US $ for Israel’s defense system.
That is not a shift. And exactly follows my argument. But shifts, even dramatic ones, in US foreign policy do occur. Often for the wrong reasons. What the fly on the wall would like to know is what was said privately to Netanyahu before that outcome was announced and whether the amount announced is the equivalent of damning through faint praise. The personal relationship between Barack Obama and Bibi Netanyahu is very much like that between Obama and Mitt Romney–mutual contempt and anger. But that rarely sours business deals, and foreign military aid fundamentally is a US-Israeli business deal for how much and what US weapons systems Israel will buy and what information and technology the US gets in return. And the logic is that a secure Israel is less likely to be aggressive. Well, that logic is absolutely wrong because of Israel’s self-story of its destinal privilege. ET had a good diary yesterday on exactly this issue–how Israel’s view of the world meshes with the US view of itself in the world.
I guess I should have put “shift” in quotes. And added a snark tag.
Somebody needs to pony up the $50K for each Iron Dome missile, to knock out one of those $900 Qassam projectiles…! 8-(
My error, Matthew Detroit. Here’s the link again.
What about the $50 homebrews, CTuttle?
Yes. Yes. Yes. More expensive military does not equal most powerful military. Goes double for most expensive military in history.
Thanks. I wanted to do a Thanksgiving day diary honoring an important Native American.
Or by deleted the “f” in “shift”.
What about the $50 homebrews, CTuttle?
*heh* You’d know a lot more about ‘em than I…! ;-)
Btw, are ya still under any legal cloud from it…?
I mention LaGarde more for the implication that US policy and the IMF’s are so entwined, and would have fit ET’s funny graphic, not that I thought they *won* what they wanted. I like that *P*rashad highlighted that the agreement was signed in *Egypt*, and not elsewhere.
From CNN… Air thick with tear gas in Tahrir Square…
My sole knowledge of homebrews is from an article on Gaza by Juan Cole about how the Hamas government doesn’t have total control over all of the militias.
…”pending further investigation” is a cloud that lets them keep my property “for evidence”.
Only intertwined because they take orders from the same bankers.
Juan Cole has the best take I’ve read on what Morsi might be up to with his power move.
What D*ckheads…! *gah*
Here’s a link to the Reuters live feed from Tahrir Square in Cairo.
Goldman Sach$…! 8-(
Richard Silverstein has a good take on the potential implications, in regards to Israel… Morsi Assumes Absolute Power…
Everything beyond “So let’s assume that Morsi does become an Egyptian strongman in the Mubarak mold,” is hyperthetical. It is not clear that that is likely to happen at this point. This isn’t the 1960s and 1970s.
I agree, but, it’s still a pragmatic outlook…!
Bibi and Barak needs to wake up and smell the coffee…! 8-(
Methinks you mean Bibi, Barak, and Barack. Yep, and the coffee is Turkish. It will take some eyelid slamming to wake up those guys.
Likud and Netanyahu and the klepto-settlers have painted Israel into a corner not unlike the demographic corner the GOP in the US has painted itself into. Both seek apartheid (“traditiona American”) societies.
The source for this is Debka, which is sometimes IDF disinfo or agitprop, but here it is:
We will see, eh…..?
Wow! I figured that Mosri was somehow “enticed”, but US troops in Sinai? I’m shocked (and horrified) just thinking about the possibility. The idea is so absolutely over the top.
Interesting. I read it less as provocative of Iran (the article points out that once arms leave Iran they have little control) and more as taking away another Netanyahu excuse for not dealing with Hamas and Fatah. An apartheid state of Israel is not in the US interest because it increases the threat of retaliation against US-owned interests.
I guess we will know when there are boots on the ground.
And there might be an Egyptian domestic reaction to watch as well.
Given that Gaza trade was an explicit part of the agreement, it will be interesting to see if this open the way for Gazan imports and exports. Gaza, after all was part of Egypt from 1947 until the Six-Day War in 1967.