In a previous post I posed the question of who or what actually caused the explosions at the Boston marathon on April 15 of this year, given that it was not the Tsarnaev brothers as the government charges: a lone wolf terrorist, a false flag operation, or an accident. There was a lively discussion in the comments thread, which reached no firm conclusion on the question but which introduced a number of points to be taken into account. Here I want to build on this discussion to propose a definite hypothesis on the matter.

The elements of the hypothesis are that a rogue agency of the US government or of its allies such as Israel, or a cabal formed from individual members of such agencies, set off the two explosions in the hope of them being blamed on Muslims, thus inflaming the Islamophobia that is a central need of the reactionary trend among US foreign policy-makers The group relied on the anti-terrorism drill that is held annually in conjunction with the marathon to provide cover for the operation. The FBI was not privy to the plot, or at least its leadership was not.

I begin by reviewing the point that the Tsarnaevs did not bomb the marathon. This is shown in the case of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, in the first place because an explosion at the location where the FBI says in two official documents that he left his backpack allegedly containing the bomb, namely, at the barrier between the sidewalk and the street in front of the Forum Restaurant, could not have produced the pattern of injuries that actually occurred. The analysis to this effect is given by Woody Box, who notes that some people close to that location were not as heavily injured as one would expect, while others standing near the entrance to the restaurant were blown into it by the force of the explosion, so that it must have occurred at a point roughly midway between the restaurant entrance and the street.

One commenter on the last thread who entertained suspicions that the Tsarnaevs bombed the marathon on April 15 because of alleged events three days later called this demonstration a “theory” (this series’s resident government propagandist did her one better and called it a “speculation”). Be that as it may, it can only be discounted by refuting it, that is, by showing what is concretely wrong with it.

(As an example of refuting a demonstration on concrete grounds, there is the case of Baby Blake’s argument at the site thebostonmarathonbombing that a bag further away from the finish line along the barrier was the true point of the explosion, with the pressure cooker bomb inside the bag lying on its side and the mouth aimed in a particular direction. The problem is that she means a bag that is shown in a photo which everyone else on our side of the case, including another contributor to her site, recognizes as faked, so that there is no reason to believe that such a bag was really there.)

That is to say, absent such refutation, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev’s backpack did not cause the second explosion, and alleged events occurring three days later must have some explanation other than that his backpack caused the explosion. This statement is not invalidated merely by one not knowing what this other explanation is.

In the case of Tamerlan Tsarnaev. an eye witness says that he saw him leave his backpack, and that he saw an explosion. (One cannot pinpoint the exact location of the explosion in relation to the backpack from this witness’s statements that have been published to date, despite some claims by the resident propagandist that the witness saw specifically the bag explode.) However, it has long been noticed that the exploded bag whose picture the FBI has offered as having contained the bomb has different markings than the bag Tamerlan is shown as carrying in surveillance video.

In addition to these objective points of evidence, the notion that the Tsarnaevs bombed the marathon out of a sense of “jihad” entirely mischaracterizes their ideologies. Tamerlan had connections with the North Caucasus separatist movement in Russia, which has nothing against the US and has even been assisted by the CIA. Dzhokhar has had no particular political orientation. The fact that they are Muslims unites them with 1.6 billion people in the world and not much else. Russia of course has attempted to equate this separatism with terrorism of the al-Qaeda type, but it has a vested interest in doing so.

In this connection, the root meaning of the Arabic word “jihad” is “acting in accordance with God,” and it is only al-Qaeda and the like, and Islamophobes in the West, who equate this with violent acts against non-Muslims. There is no reason to believe that the one case where a tap of Tamerlan’s mother’s phone picked up the word involved anything other than its general meaning.

According to my hypothesis, events unfolded as follows. A cabal planning a false flag operation infiltrated Craft International, an organization involved in the anti-terrorist drill held in connection with the marathon, while the Tsarnaev brothers were recruited by the drill organizers (who were ultimately responsible to the DHS) to set off smoke bombs. This is why they left their backpacks on the ground. There is no reason to believe that any of this was known to the Boston FBI Office. One or two members of the cabal dressed in the CI uniform set off the bombs, and this is why the exploded backpack the FBI later publicized looks like those that the CI personnel carried.

As the thebostonmarathonbombing site has noted, the drill was unusually prominent this year. Its size may have provided the cabal with additional cover, but there is no reason to believe that the size itself was the result of anything more than the escalating paranoia about security that has pertained in the country in the last year or so.

Two days later, on April 17, the FBI identified the Saudi exchange student Abdulrahman Ali Al-Harbi as a “person of interest” or “suspect” (depending on whose account you believe) and scheduled a press conference, but then realized that he was only a witness and canceled the event. He was either deported but later allowed to return or was not deported at all (again depending on the account).

I believe that on April 18 Boston FBI personnel recognized the Tsarnaevs in surveillance video from the marathon, because they had had a previous encounter with Tamerlan. Since this video included an image of Dzhokhar leaving his backpack (according to subsequent court motions) they decided then and there that the Tsarnaevs were the culprits. They then released images of the two men to the public, withholding the fact that they knew who the men were because they did not want to be blamed for not keeping tabs on Tamerlan and thus preventing the bombing (a futile gesture since they would later indeed be blamed). There is no reason to believe that their blaming the Tsarnaevs was dishonest at this point even though it was mistaken, and even though they lied about not knowing who they were.

(In this connection, remember the motto: “The first rule at the Bureau is to cover the Bureau’s ass; the second rule is to cover your own.”)

Recognizing the opportunity, the cabal that engineered the bombing took the occasion to plant evidence incriminating the Tsarnaevs, such as the “boat note” that Dzhokhar is supposed to have written before his capture. Again, there is no reason to believe that the FBI as such contributed to this activity.

A “lone wolf” terrorist would not have had the access needed to plant evidence, and that is the principal reason why I now doubt this possibility for who bombed the marathon.

We lack understanding of the events on the night of April 18, but a few points can be made. It staggers the imagination that the brothers, instead of hightailing it out of Boston upon learning that they were suspects, hung around the area, making a special trip to the MIT campus to steal a gun, and hijacking a car that they did not need. As to the alleged murder of MIT Officer Collier, Baby Blake completely destroys the theory that it was for the purpose of stealing his gun, while commenter barbara notes @ 60 in the last thread that there should have been blood on the brothers’ clothes, but there is not in ATM and convenience store camera footage.

My guess is that the brothers stayed in the area to meet someone connected with the drill, perhaps to get paid before leaving town, and that that person was “Danny,” the alleged carjacking victim who was a student at Northeastern University where drill participants are trained. Instead, Danny bolted upon realizing that these were the men whose images were on TV, leaving them with the car, and later making up the carjacking story.

The government alleges that at the later shootout the brothers exploded more “pressure cooker bombs.” However, unlike those at the marathon these caused no damage.

Given the since deleted CNN video showing what virtually everyone recognizes to be him being arrested in full health, Tamerlan Tsarnaev was killed while in police custody. However, that was likely due to momentary anger, not an overall plan. The mouth wound sustained by Dzhokhar according to the official medical report also must have happened after he was in custody, as I have previously demonstrated in view of the steep angle of the trajectory with his face; that was likely due to someone trying to shoot him directly in the mouth, with someone else jarring the gun to the side just before it fired. Again, this will have been in momentary anger.

Within a few days of naming the Tsarnaevs. the Boston FBI realized that Tamerlan knew one of the victims in the unsolved triple murder in Waltham, Mass. in 2011, and decided to reopen that investigation in the hope of assisting the bombing case. As a matter of course it also interviewed acquaintances of the Tsarnaevs and in consequence sent a delegation to Orlando, Florida to interview Ibragim Todashev. By all accounts save theirs this resulted in a campaign of harassment of the Orlando Chechen community, including the killing of Todashev himself under suspicious circumstances. They floated a story that he had been about to sign a confession implicating Tamerlan and himself in the Waltham murders, which would have been false since he was not in Massachusetts at the time of those murders, according to his widow and the Florida CAIR chapter.

Now the government, at least at the upper levels of the Obama administration’s Department of Justice, has to have realized by now that its case is false. This realization might have occurred as early as the Todashev killing on May 22, which might account for the general air of desperation displayed by the FBI during that time, when it blatantly intimidated witnesses with threats of deportation if they did not supply evidence they did not have.

However, my guess is that the realization occurred in mid August, and is the reason for the sudden imposition of the SAMs on Dzhokhar Tsarnaev after four months of his incarceration. The government hopes that it can intimidate him and his legal team into agreeing to a plea bargain adverse to his interests, thus ensuring that this entire dirty business would stay buried, instead of coming to light in a trial.

I suppose it is too much to ask of the government that it admit its error, release Dzhokhar Tsarnaev with its apologies and compensation for the suffering he has endured, also to the the Tsarnaev and Todashev families for the losses of their sons, and vigorously pursue the investigation so as to identify and capture the real culprits, who are still out there ready to harm others.