Abdelrahman Amr Zaki, 15, rejected what he said were claims the protests are just about economic conditions.
“They are not. My father drives a BMW and I have a very good home. There is no democracy, no freedom. We just want Mubarak to go.”
The U.S. media and some progressives and a substantial number of demonstrators will apparently be satisfied with an Egyptian revolution that devolves into just ‘Mubarak out’. As we see in the quote at the top and the blockquotes below:
But a coalition of activists … said they would not talk with [Prime Minister] Shafiq.
Amr Salah, a coalition representative, told AFP that those who had launched the call to protest last week “will not accept any dialogue with the regime until our principal demand is met, and that is for President Hosni Mubarak to step down.”
“Our principal demand”? The subtitle and then a couple paragraphs from Code Pink Medea Benjamin‘s article on alternet:
Despite violence and intimidation, thousands of people are still camped out in the square — absolutely determined to stay there until Mubarak goes
Despite the danger on the streets, we went to the square carrying with two big banners. One said “World Says Time To Go, Mubarak!” and the other said “Solidarity With Egyptian People” in both English and Arabic. When the people in the square saw us and discovered we were Americans, they erupted into cheers. …
I couldn’t believe that after today’s attacks, there were still women in the square who planned to spend the night. A group of young women ran up to us and started hugging and kissing us. “You don’t know what your presence means to us,” one of the students said. ” Please tell Obama that we need him to do more to push Mubarak to go NOW, before more of us get killed.”
This attitude is not good, in fact it’s suspiciously post-ideological. In other words, if Egypt’s revolution goes the way of the “color-coded” revolutions sponsored by Western governments and foundations, it will be just as unsuccessful as those revolutions in transferring political power and economic wealth to the bottom 80% of Egypt’s population. Which is why the West sponsors these post-ideological revolutions.
So, no, I’m sorry otherwise honorable but congenitally too optimistic David North, the following does not seem to be happening:
The Egyptian revolution is dealing a devastating blow to the pro-capitalist triumphalism that followed the Soviet bureaucracy’s liquidation of the USSR in 1991. The class struggle, socialism and Marxism were declared irrelevant in the modern world. “History”—as in “The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles” (Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels)—had ended. Henceforth, the only revolutions conceivable to the media were those that were “color-coded” in advance, politically scripted by the US State Department, and then implemented by the affluent pro-capitalist sections of society.
This complacent and reactionary scenario has been exploded in Tunisia and Egypt. History has returned with a vengeance. What is presently unfolding in Cairo and throughout Egypt is revolution, the real thing.
Wish it were, but no. The best clue I have to the non-class nature of the revolution is summed up in the following question “What happened to the General Strike?” We read here and here on Monday that it was supposed to have begun on Tuesday. At myfiredoglake, Jeff Kaye wrote:
Egyptian Workers Hold Key to Uprising, New Union Association Issues Call for General Strike
… Barely reported in the West, among the crowds at Tahrir Square last Sunday, a new trade union confederation was announced, the Federation of Egyptian Trade Unions (FETU), which immediately issued a call for a general-strike. The call has been widely taken up, and many reports now link the uprising to unity with the workers, particularly in Suez, where the battle has been fought most intensely with state police.
But we’ve heard nothing about it, from any source, since then. Do a google search and see for yourself. Now, I realize the mainstream media is always reluctant to focus attention on expressions of worker power, but a successful general strike would _force_ attention on itself. That just has not happened, so I have to assume the general strike has not, uh, become ‘general’. And, since the effective way to demonstrate the working class is playing a primary role in a revolution is through it carrying out an effective general strike, my conclusion is the Egyptian working class and lower-middle-class are not going all out participating in this revolution, at least not yet.
Another worrying sign is the apparent fact that less than 300,000 protestors participated in Tuesday’s “million-man march.” Again, the regime attempted to discourage participation, but such attempts would’ve been overwhelmed by an entire working class enthusiastically participating in this revolution. So, I wonder.
If there is only a peripheral class aspect to this revolution and in fact its commanding center is post-ideological, that makes it understandable that workers would be reluctant to put their lives on the line for it. What would be the point? To get a “new boss, same as the old boss”? I wrote “It’s the U.S. vs. the Egyptian people (Mubarak’s just our dictator)” optimistically last week, but if this revolution is simply about replacing Mubarak with a friendlier face of what is essentially U.S.-sponsored military rule, what’s the point of dying for that?
Anyway, I hope I’m wrong, and that this is not just another of those manipulated “naive young people” revolutions that U.S. ‘pro-democracy’ foundations specialize in. However, it concerns me how long the U.S. has been planning for the post-Mubarak era, and, frankly, that Mohammed ElBaradei is a board member of George Soros’s International Crisis Group. (I wonder if that’s a secret, because Soros didn’t mention it in his op-ed boosting ElBaradei, published today in the Washington Post.)
Why is the revolution’s command-and-control post-ideological, if that is the case? Michael Barker writes well on capitalism’s foundations, how they fund progressive change but also place firm limits on it:
… if “we are serious about collectively working to building workable alternatives to capitalism then we must learn to subject our most influential theorists to ruthless criticism.” As I pointed out, a fundamental aspect of such endeavours required “critiquing the very organizations that have sustained (and constrained) much progressive activism, liberal foundations.” Unfortunately, in the year 2009, bar a few noteworthy exceptions, progressive writers have failed to respond to this challenge. On the contrary, many activist commentators have rallied to undermine support for a political agenda that raises legitimate debate about the multitude of problems associated with capitalist funding for progressive activism.
Another Michael Barker quote:
Counter to popular misunderstandings of their work, rather than promoting progressive and more participatory forms of democracy, liberal philanthropy actually serves the opposite purpose by helping preserve gross inequalities, thereby legitimising the status quo. It should not be surprising that Robert Arnove and Nadine Pinede note that although the Carnegie, Rockefeller, and Ford foundations’ “claim to attack the root causes of the ills of humanity, they essentially engage in ameliorative practices to maintain social and economic systems that generate the very inequalities and injustices they wish to correct.”
Finally, Ideology 1A might begin with an understanding of imperialism and the necessity for its success of co-opted host country capitalists. Juan Cole writes:
It should be remembered that Egypt’s elite of multi-millionaires has benefited enormously from its set of corrupt bargains with the US and Israel and from the maintenance of a martial law regime that deflects labor demands and pesky human rights critiques. It is no wonder that to defend his billions and those of his cronies, Hosni Mubarak was perfectly willing to order thousands of his security thugs into the Tahrir Square to beat up and expel the demonstrators, leaving 7 dead and over 800 wounded, 200 of them just on Thursday morning. …
More recently the cover story has been the supposed threat of radical Islam, which is a tiny fringe phenomenon in most of the Middle East that in some large part was sowed by US support for the extremists in the Cold War as a foil to the phantom of International Communism. And then there is the set of myths around Israel, that it is necessary for the well-being of the world’s Jews, that it is an asset to US security, that it is a great ethical enterprise– all of which are patently false.On such altars are the labor activists, youthful idealists, human rights workers, and democracy proponents in Egypt being sacrificed with the silver dagger of filthy lucre. …
For removing all pressure on Israel by the biggest Arab nation with the best Arab military, Egypt has been rewarded with roughly $2 billion in US aid every year, not to mention favorable terms for importation of sophisticated weaponry and other perquisites. This move allowed the Israelis to invade and occupy part of Lebanon in 1982-2000, and then to launch massively destructive wars on virtually defenseless Lebanese and Gaza Palestinians more recently. Cairo under Mubarak is as opposed to Shiite Hizbullah in Lebanon and fundamentalist Hamas in Gaza as is Tel Aviv. The regime of Hosni Mubarak appears to have taken some sort of bribe to send substantial natural gas supplies to Israel at a deep discount. It has joined in the blockade against the civilians of Gaza. It acts as Israel’s handmaid in oppressing the Palestinians, and is bribed to do so by the US.
P.S. Two things I wrote at pffugeecamp that inspired this post:
The sad failure of post-ideological revolts
Soros Foundation prudently sponsors this deadheaded stupidity. And dumbed-down college-educated kids swallow it.
I very very much wish that instead this were true:
Egyptian Workers Hold Key to Uprising, New Union Association Issues Call for General Strike
But unfortunately Jeff Kaye is likely wrong, and the backed by millions of dollars ‘post-ideology’ will win again. Like it has done in various colored revolutions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East in recent years. All of those revolutions spectacular failures in relation to their peoples’ actual hopes. Like Obama has been for his 2008 youngish, naive ‘post-ideological’ hopesters.
No, folks, there’s no easy way, ya can’t win with the learning you get from MTV and video games. Ya’ gotta crack the fuckin’ real books and learn something, get some ideology in ya. Leftism, Marxism, social democracy, modified by a lot of history reading and common sense.
Again, though, I assume the next U.S.-sponsored and military-dominated government will throw the people some bones in the form of subsidized bread prices and such. So, good on the Egyptian people.
by: fairleft @ Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 15:54:59 PM EST
Or, as I wrote briefly Wednesday, on the incoherence of ‘post-ideology’:
Anti-ideology is just for people too lazy and/or economically comfortable to stress working out a coherent ideology for themselves. And of course the rich who aren’t sociopaths don’t want to know what their real-life ideology is.




36 Comments

Alas, that the Egyptians are not living up to our expectations. Why can’t they have a general strike like we do in this country?
Salah’s “our principal demand” is the removal of Mubarak is what really struck me. I’ve edited the diary slightly to emphasize that more. Is that all there is / will be?
Even in the Bolshevik revolution with Lenin at the helm, there was a developmental process.
So of course there are limitations to the Egyptian movement. It is proper to critique the removal of Mubarak as “our principal demand,” but that needs to be better located as one element of a developing process, with the potentially more radical elements not having had time to emerge. In some ways, the Egyptians are developing brilliantly, but at the same time, they come from a long period of severe undevelopment.
So while I am not programmatically thrilled, the actual developmental process is thrilling. Case in point: the Mubarak thugs — as an organized force — were able to set the democracy forces back on their heels. Yet within hours, they had developed a functioning quasi-military command structure, set up a strong defensive perimeter, and launch a fierce counter-attack that drove the thugs back in stunned bewilderment.
These small developments will have to be repeated over and over again before the sophisticated political approach you advocate will be able to take ORGANIZED form.
So our role, to the extent we have one, is not to bombard them with good advice, but to give them the space to develop this on their own.
I say this not to romanticize the Egyptians — a racist temptation for leftists — but to recognize the limitations of what can be done by us in the U.S., so that within those limits we can actually do what can be done.
A ‘no’ to good advice? That seems anti-intellectual. Or is it you want a ‘natural’ Egyptian revolution, unstained by foreign thinking? Anyway, I don’t understand the ‘defensible’ motivation for no advice, if there is one.
The “long period of severe undevelopment,” if that really is the case, needs to be corrected, quickly. I think that cheering on the revolution uncritically (no advice allowed) helps less than this diary (assuming (silly of me to do so) that anyone inside the revolution is reading this).
An absolute brutal, detailed and honest appraisal of things at hand.
Quite depressing for this reader, but enlightening to a degree as cannot be adequately measured.
Great work, regardless of POV.
Truly a perspective that NO ONE, left or right, wants to address, and one that has NOT been addressed that I’ve read anywhere.
Rcc’d, heartily.
This is essential reading, and perhaps, perhaps, a horrible harbinger of what’s to come in a potential bloodbath ending Egypt’s Jasmine.
I desperately long for a better outcome . . . but I fear for the worst . . . and not because of any ‘post idealogical’ makeup of the protesters . . .
However, your diary certainly opens the window much wider for negative outcomes.
Thanks again for publishing this brutally honest analysis.
Fairleft, you make good points. I never said that a general strike was going to happen, only that it would take that level of organization and mass participation to achieve the goals of even bringing down Mubarak or his allies. In fact, I warned that the “support” of the AFL-CIO and other traditional international trade union associations could be used to derail militancy:
I do not know what is going on in union meetings in Egypt. I imagine things are quite fluid, and there is a lot of political conflict going on inside these organizations, as any mass action poses the question of power… state power… and this can cause a lot of hesitation, even while the movement/protest there is having to cope with a new agressiveness from pro-Mubarak forces.
An interesting article by Max Aji at Truthout today amplifies some of the history and points I was making the other day:
Where is the general strike? It’s a fair question. But unfortunately, getting decent news out of Egypt is very difficult right now. Even Al Jazeera concentrates on events in downtown Cairo, and we have very little idea of how things are unfolding in Suez, Alexandria, or other cities, not to mention the countryside. One interesting issue has opened in recent hours, news articles about the possibility of the US/NATO seizing the Suez Canal. This can only be in reaction to the idea that control of the canal (or fear of such) could pass over to a striking workforce (because Mubarak and current state authorities will do all they can to keep the Canal open).
See Business Week: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_07/b4215016314977.htm
Sydney Morning Herald: http://www.smh.com.au/business/unrest-in-egypt-turns-anxious-eyes-to-suez-canal-20110203-1afg0.html
Hey, that’s why I always get front-paged . . . NOT.
Seriously, thanks.
Jeff,
Thanks for your response. You make a lot of important points. I hope I have it wrong about the general strike, but it certainly doesn’t seem to have impacted Cairo, or we would’ve heard about it, from some source.
I should’ve included it in the main diary, but my understanding is that there will be a second effort for a general strike, to begin February 6. A _lot_ I think depends on how large the mass demonstration is tomorrow, Friday.
Maybe the Egyptians see Mubarak as the embodiment and symbol of everything that is wrong with their country. Maybe getting rid of him seems like all they can bight off and chew at this moment in time. The revolution seems to be spontaneous and leaderless. So who is there to give it structure and a program for life after Mubarak? Nobody.
I think you’re underselling the Egyptians at this juncture, fairleft, Mubarak hasn’t resigned and Tahrir Square is still in the Anti-Mubarak hands… The situation is very fluid and we’ve yet to see Tomorrow’s turnout/outcome…!
“Maybe the Egyptians see Mubarak as the embodiment and symbol of everything that is wrong with their country.” That’s pretty childish.
“Maybe getting rid of him seems like all they can bite off and chew at this moment in time.” That’s realistic, and there are benefits from ‘just’ getting rid of Mubarak. The people have shown there are limits to the constantly escalating exploitation.
“The revolution seems to be spontaneous and leaderless. So who is there to give it structure and a program for life after Mubarak? Nobody.” That’s how it looks to me too. Or, there are several competing groups (some corrupted/coopted by ‘outside’ influence) with completely incompatible goals. Hope I’m wrong.
Friday’s a day off in Egypt, so perhaps there will be a million people there and Mubarak will finally ‘get it’. We’ll see. It’s a positive thing to get rid of Mubarak, something to be proud of.
We’ll see, but whether there is more, what the further goals are, very soon needs to be articulated and organized for. Cuz there’s a lot of power and money behind a Mubarak-free status quo.
Do you think nobody in Egypt is aware of the limitations you point out? Do you think that when you offer the advice that “an entire working class enthusiastically participating in this revolution” someone would say, “Hey, that’s a good idea!”
Just who in Egypt is hearing your advice? Better yet, who do you think should be hearing your advice? And once identified, how do you plan to get your advice to them?
No, I don’t want “a ‘natural’ Egyptian revolution, unstained by foreign thinking.” It’s not that our advice would “stain” the process, but rather that it’s irrelevant to it.
So let us premise that there are forces there who agree with your strategic assessment. (I do.) That leaves the tactical question of how to organize things in that direction. My take is that such forces have to operate within a broader Mubarak Out front, and then organize for that within that front. But there are tough questions. How numerous are such forces? What physical danger of death would be risked by pushing that too aggressively at this point? If there are other forces more numerous and better organized, which of those forces, if in power, would create the conditions for further organization?
And once you’ve figured all this out, how do you make this available to anyone within Egypt who is in a position to take heed of it (as such persons would probably already have thought of it)?
I’m not trying to shut you down. I’m just giving you a little bit of advice.
“Or, there are several competing groups (some corrupted/coopted by ‘outside’ influence) with completely incompatible goals. Hope I’m wrong.”
Interesting statement. You are absolutely correct. Why would you hope you’re wrong.
Your analysis is valuable, not because of anybody in Egypt heeding it, but in terms of how the left in this country relates to the situation. One likely line of development is that Mubarak steps down, along with his U.S. CIA stooge of a VP, and a broader unity government takes over.
Now the issue of the peace treaty of Israel comes to the fore. There will be enormous pressure in the U.S. to intervene on the side of the “democratic” forces who would maintain the treaty. At this point, one might hope that progressives in the U.S. could apply some kind of pressure to prevent the U.S. from doing so. That will be a real fight, and that I would hope we could be relevant. And yes, your analysis does shed clarity on this.
Btw, Wikileaks reminds us why it has to be the entire Egyptian regime that needs to go…
Egypt – U.S. intelligence collaboration with Omar Suleiman “most successful”…
Although there are 10,000 millionaires in Egypt out of a total 80 million people, 40 million people live on less than the equivalent of US$2.00 per day (Average annual income per capita = $5400, 2008 est., CIA World Factbook.)
How do you ask these people to forego their earnings for a day when they make this little?
There’s also other issues which affect organization:
– 32+% of the population is in agriculture;
– Although 51% of the population works in services, many services are state-owned or state-run and were already shut down to prevent attendance at the Million Man March, cutting into income;
– Literacy rates are lower than neighboring countries and therefore internet connectivity and accessibility of media are diminished.
This last point may be why Tunisia’s president left more quickly; the population is more literate and more media-accessible.
I wonder how you say “Dump Mubarak!” in Arabic?
:-)
“if Egypt’s revolution goes the way of the “color-coded” revolutions sponsored by Western governments and foundations”
Yup, that would be a disaster. Sometimes I think that men like Soros are merely an extention of the state department. Or vice versa.
Thanks for the perspective and links!
This is a reply to
jeffroby February 3rd, 2011 at 4:26 pm
Nobody? I’m not sure, but excess wishful thinking is not a good thing. Anyway, I agree with the following assessment of this diary, expressed by Larue in the comment section here:
“Truly a perspective that NO ONE, left or right, wants to address, and one that has NOT been addressed that I’ve read anywhere.”
For example, the notion that a general strike was called and apparently does not seem to have gotten off the ground. What should that teach revolutionists? The idea that there was a to be a million man demonstration on Tuesday that attracted a fourth of that. These are what has happened this week, and no one else is writing about it, and why these disheartening things appear to have happened. Realism can be helpful, and there might still be time to change directions.
In other words, yes, a potential/actual revolution can be a developing long-term process; it can also be a short-term and failing one. We don’t know which way this one is going at this point. I worry that many of the rarely discussed signs I look at in my diary point to the latter, while you’re optimistic it’s the former.
The basic problem I see at this point is not the direct actions of the demonstrators in Cairo’s city center, but with the lack of an articulated ideology. It seems this lack may indicate a revolution of the post-ideological sort, the kind that by default have the ideology of its behind-the-scene sponsors.
Well, because “several competing groups (some corrupted/coopted by ‘outside’ influence) with completely incompatible goals” is not ideal for making a powerful and ‘go all the way’ popular revolutionary force. But that may be how things are in Egypt.
What might be of value is that my diary — which is based on nothing more than basic class analysis — could be a comparatively realistic and solid predictor about what happens going forward in Egypt. ‘Good’ old-fashioned class conflict, who knows, mebbe I’ll be a small push to help it get back into fashion.
I think the literacy rate is only slightly lower than in Tunisia, 70% to 75%.
First point is that the revolt has already been successful in forcing the ruling class to be more respectful and throw “a few more bones” to the bottom 80%.
If it is going to be much more successful, it needs some sort of unified set of demands, and those demands need to have some major economic bite (as in, taking a big bite out of the wealthy’s take). The vast majority of those revolting then need to sign on to such a set of demands.
Some may not want to; it would actually be an optimistic sign if the ‘BMW-owner elite’ (see the beginning of the diary) rejected the revolt’s unified demands, because that would likely mean those demands truly represented the interests of the hard-up and impoverished majority.
Wow, Wikileaks strikes again! Great stuff, and very timely.
I think your diary is very valuable. I have some problems with the implications about our influence on events, but I think you understand. As for:
“For example, the notion that a general strike was called and apparently does not seem to have gotten off the ground. What should that teach revolutionists? The idea that there was a to be a million man demonstration on Tuesday that attracted a fourth of that.”
What do you think it teaches revolutionists? Personally, I think revolution is an imprecise art, and in the absence of better organization, the numbers were impressive. Some estimates are considerably larger. General strike? In the lack of a strong labor movement, why would you think one possible at all? At least short run.
I suspect you’re making some broader statement about radicals getting caught up in revolutionary fervor without any serious analysis of material conditions. In this regard, I second the sentiment in spades.
Again, I support where you’re going with this. But as for disparate competing groups, consider what a zoo there was in Russia 1917.
It’s lower. Tunisia’s literacy rate is nearly 10% higher among men than in Egypt; Egypt’s literacy rate among women is less than 60%.
The revolt in many ways is driven by the most educated percentiles in the country as they could deploy social media more effectively. There is a unified set of demands, but they aren’t much different than the demands colonists here made — they coalesced around the removal of a highly concentrated, undemocratic leadership. (Down with King George = Out with Mubarak)
Take a look at the demands of two of the most visible opposition groups:
– The Muslim Brotherhood has demanded establishment of a national unity government, the organization of free elections, and Mubarak’s departure as president.
– The April 6 activist group has demanded the removal of the interior minister, an end to the restrictive emergency law, and an increase in the minimum wage which has been frozen for a ridiculous length of time.
ElBaradei has encouraged the development of an umbrella organization, the National Association for Change (can’t think of the Egyptian name, sorry), which has pulled together the demands of these two large groups as well as the al-Ghad and the Democratic Front, and the Kefaya (Egyptian Movement for Democratic Change). It’s not clear to me if the Wafd — which appears to be more centrist than the other groups — is included in this umbrella group.
Ultimately the opposition’s demands come down to the creation of a new government without Mubarak, the elimination of the state of emergency, and constitutional reforms which lead to a democratic future.
I should point out that one of the other reasons the Egyptians have been resistant to using a national strike is that the April 6, 2008 general strike spawned a crackdown which provided impetus to the dissent and opposition you see today. They’ve already had THE general strike they needed to push change; it’s just taken nearly three years for its fruits to reach maturity.
I will agree with you on the Soros thingy, but I do not see this in any way smilar to the color revolutions which were strictly, and often, ethnically motivated Partisan affairs. The majority of Egyptians have been humiliated, disempowered, robbed of their future, dignity and half starved.
As far as I can tell, this is a national solidarity uprising against a dictator and his supporters, which includes the USG and the propaganda mill that is our MSM, but not necessarily the american people. The only thing that would exclude you from this movement is an official ID. The degree of commitment to absolutism – the only thing that stands a chance of delivering the change all Egyptians seek, is a rejection the neo-liberal IMF legitimated and in places even mandated impoverishment of the workers.
It first probably will come down to where the army ultimately will take it’s stand. Those who have been in the streets may be facing a simple choice: Win Big, or be tortured, killed, abused and disappeared by Omar Suleiman – they are not going to fall for window dressing.
“The best clue I have to the non-class nature of the revolution is summed up in the following question “What happened to the General Strike?”’
The factories, businesses, banks, and seemingly the ports are shut down. That’s what.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/egypt-mubarak
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/4607614/Egypt-tries-to-calm-investors
http://www.thehindu.com/business/companies/article1146735.ece
http://www.israelidiamond.co.il/English/News.aspx?boneID=918&objID=8668
http://blogs.wsj.com/dispatch/2011/01/31/coke-nestle-report-egypt-shutdowns/
http://www.lloydslistdcn.com.au/archive/2011/02-february/03/egypt-crisis-lines-continue-calls-but-ports-shut-down
This is a reply to
jeffroby February 3rd, 2011 at 9:26 pm
(Why there’s no reply button immediately below your text, I don’t know.)
Sincere populists and social democrats should sweep aside false optimism at this point and learn from the lack of success. I note that today’s demonstration apparently drew “around 100,000″ people. It was a day off, and wasn’t the hype a million?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110204/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt
What’s the best that can be achieved from the real on-the-ground situation in Egypt? My guess is that realists are thinking about distinguishing themselves from the simpleton post-ideologists’ “principal demand” (Mubarak out). Those trying to get the most from this context should consider a coalition between labor and the Muslim Brotherhood, perhaps with ElBaradei or someone similarly ‘non-Islamist and moderate’ at the head of that, and then hammering out a common vision/set of goals for the next 6 months to a year.
Anyway, this is a useful discussion, imho. And, yes, we peons ‘publishing’ outside the webs of power of course reach relatively few people. But if we have unique insights — or if we just write down the stuff that ‘everyone’ is thinking but doesn’t want to write down — we should publish in any way we can and hope ‘revolutionists’ and others sincerely interested in left/populist reform find us. And maybe myfdl has some reach, who knows?
Things have happened suddenly and unexpectedly, and ElBaradei’s umbrella group doesn’t seem as umbrella-ish as it will need to be. I think this BBC analysis — ‘Egypt opposition divided ahead of possible transition’ — from a few minutes ago sums up the situation right now:
I think the real ultimate goal is much more tricky than you’ve indicated, because the democratic will of the majority is very problematic for the U.S. and for the several hundred thousand Egyptians who are dependent on continuation of the kleptocracy. Will the blockade against Gaza end? Will the thiefs be dispossessed and their wealth transferred to the majority? I don’t think it’s a stretch to guess that that’s what the will of the people wants. A realistic and successful transition needs more than just to establish democratic rules, it probably needs some specifics on how the transitional and post-election state will deal with those two big issues, and with the relationship with the U.S. in general.
(Mostly foreign-owned) businesses temporarily shutting down is not a general strike.
I think many of the university students and the wealthy 15-year-old at the start of my diary may fall for window-dressing. My question is, where are the vast majority of young people, those who can’t afford to go to school, where are the people who don’t chat ‘on-line’ or organize on Facebook? Where are the working class and the working poor? I know they support the goals of the demonstrators, but are they ‘inside’ the movement’s decision-making or outside? Because if this is basically not their revolution it’s likely not one that will achieve great things.
Some temporary relief to inflated food prices, a boost in the minimum wage, are not nothing, but like you I’m hoping for much more. I’m not optimistic right now, seeing what’s happened today.
You can’t strike a factory that’s shut down.
Workers were already striking before the mass protests began:
http://www.cemweek.com/news/volume-a-pricing/11063-egypt-transport-strike-affects-cement-steel-dispatches
Interview with Egyptian socialist re unions and protests:
http://www.swp.ie/reviews/egyptian-socialist-speaks/4034
The Egyptian labour movement was quite under attack in the 1980s and 1990s by police, who used live ammunition against peaceful strikers in 1989 during strikes in the steel mills and in 1994 in the textile mill strikes. But steadily since December 2006 our country has been witnessing the biggest and most sustained waves of strike actions since 1946, triggered by textile strikes in the Nile Delta town of Mahalla, home of largest labour force in the Middle East with over 28,000 workers. It started because of labour issues but spread to every sector in society except the police and military.
Strikes in Suez
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/02/world/la-fg-egypt-discontent-20110202/2
“The government kept us poor. We didn’t talk about politics because we were trying too hard to survive,” said Kamal Banna, a chemical factory worker on strike in Suez. “Then we started talking about politics and they started killing us. There’s no way back for us now. Mubarak has to leave. If the police come back, they’ll want revenge.”
“Many of the factories along the sea have been shuttered. Soldiers with bayonets stood guard over oil refineries.”
The April 6 Youth Movement and strikes
http://shabab6april.wordpress.com/shabab-6-april-youth-movement-about-us-in-english/
Factories shut across Egypt:
http://mediacenter.dw-world.de/english/video/#!/65306/Effects_of_Crisis_on_Commerce_in_Cairo
http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/companies-withdraw-staff-from-egypt-amid-unrest
http://www.yarnsandfibers.com/news/index_fullstory.php3?id=24196&p_type=General#
http://english.themarker.com/factories-closed-stores-fear-looting-1.340265
http://europe.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110201/ANE/110209997/1317
Egypt’s economy has ground to a halt:
“The New York Times reports that the nation’s economy has all but ground to a halt. Tourism, foreign commerce and banking have stopped, international companies are closing plants and sending workers out of the country. Food staples for stores are going undelivered.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/01/business/main7305048.shtml
Your information and links are very useful. They don’t overcome the reality that there is no general strike.
The link below is “a statement from the youth leadership of the protesters”:
http://bikyamasr.com/wordpress/?p=25584
It cites positively the color-coded revolution in the Ukraine, and how the military was coopted and reassured by the revolt’s leadership. Generally it has the post-ideology feel of U.S. State department thinking. Not good, more reason for pessimistic colors. But, hopefully the folks who wrote it are pretenders and not actually the revolt’s “youth leadership.”
BTW, does this revolt require just a “youth leadership”? Why can’t it have a “leadership” in addition to and above “the youth leadership”? The age-ism, youth knows best, ploy is an old Soros trick, with a long story now of unpleasant results. Basically, there are exceptional young people, but generally older, more experienced people should be the leaders of an authentic, serious general revolt.
David Price’s article, particularly the final four paragraphs, which I’ve blockquoted parts of, is indispensable on the great difficulties facing a real revolution:
http://counterpunch.org/price02032011.html
If not the U.S. and Israel, then “economic alliances with some foreign patron state(s)” means who? Anyway, great analysis and realism above. Read the whole thing!