There is much to say about this week’s Frontline documentary, “Nuclear Aftershocks,” and some of it would even be good. For the casual follower of nuclear news in the ten months since an earthquake and tsunami triggered the massive and ongoing disaster at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station, it is illuminating to see the wreckage that once was a trio of active nuclear reactors, and the devastation and desolation that has replaced town after town inside the 20-kilometer evacuation zone. And it is eye-opening to experience at ground level the inadequacy of the Indian Point nuclear plant evacuation plan. It is also helpful to learn that citizens in Japan and Germany have seen enough and are demanding their countries phase out nuclear energy.
But if you are only a casual observer of this particular segment of the news, then the Frontline broadcast also left you with a mountain of misinformation and big bowl-full of unquestioned bias.
Take, for example, Frontline correspondent Miles O’Brien’s cavalier treatment of the potential increase in Japanese cancer deaths, courtesy of the former property of the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO):
MILES O’BRIEN: When Japanese authorities set radiation levels for evacuation, they were conservative, 20 millisieverts per year. That’s the equivalent of two or three abdominal CAT scans in the same period. I asked Dr. Gen Suzuki about this.
[on camera] So at 20 millisieverts over the course of a long period of time, what is the increased cancer risk?
GEN SUZUKI, Radiation specialist, Nuclear Safety Comm.: Yeah, it’s 0.2— 0.2 percent increase in lifetime.
MILES O’BRIEN: [on camera] 0.2 percent over the course of a lifetime?
GEN SUZUKI: Yeah.
MILES O’BRIEN: So your normal risk of cancer in Japan is?
GEN SUZUKI: Is 30 percent.
MILES O’BRIEN: So what is the increased cancer rate?
GEN SUZUKI: 30.2 percent, so the increment is quite small.
MILES O’BRIEN: And yet the fear is quite high.
GEN SUZUKI: Yes, that’s true.
MILES O’BRIEN: [voice-over] People are even concerned here, in Fukushima City, outside the evacuation zone, where radiation contamination is officially below any danger level.
There was no countervailing opinion offered after this segment–which is kind of disgraceful because there is a myriad of informed, countervailing opinions out there.
Is 20 millisieverts (mSv) a year a conservative limit on exposure? Well, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission says the average annual dose for those living in the United States is 6.2 mSv, half of which is background, with the other half expected to come from diagnostic medical procedures. And according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the maximum additional dose for an adult before it is considered an “unacceptable risk” is one millisievert per year.
Then, to assess the cancer risk, O’Brien, practically in the same breath, changes exposure over a single year to “over the course of a long period of time”–an inexcusable muddying of the facts. One year for those who must live out their lives in northern Japan might wind up seeming like a long period of time, but it would actually be a small fraction of their lifetimes, and so would present them with only a fraction of their exposure.
So, is Dr. Gen Suzuki assessing the increased cancer risk for 20 mSv over a lifetime, a long time, or just one year? It is hard to say for sure, though, based on his estimates, it seems more like he is using a much longer timeframe than a single year. But even if his estimate really is the total expected increase in cancer deaths from the Fukushima disaster, what is he talking about? Miles O’Brien seems almost incredulous that anyone would be showing concern over a .2 percent increase, but in Japan, a .2 percent increase in cancer deaths means 2,000 more deaths. How many modern nations would find any disaster–natural or manmade–that resulted in 2,000 deaths to be negligible? For that matter, how many of the reporters, producers or crew of Frontline would feel good about rolling the dice and moving their family into an area that expects 2,000 additional fatalities?
Further, the exchange doesn’t say anything about the person who is supposed to casually endure the equivalent of three abdominal CAT scans a year (something no respectable professional would recommend without some very serious cause). The effects of radiation exposure on children are quite a bit different from the effects of the same exposure on adults–and quite a bit more troubling. And young girls are more at risk than young boys. Though the Frontline episode features many pictures of children–for instance, playing little league baseball–it never mentions their higher risks.
Also missing here, any mention that in a country now blanketed north to south in varying levels of radioactive fallout, radiation exposure is not purely external. The estimates discussed above are based on an increase in background radiation, but radioactive isotopes are inhaled with fallout-laden dust and dirt, and consumed with food from contaminated farmlands and fisheries. Outcomes will depend on the isotopes and who consumes them–radioactive Iodine concentrates in the Thyroid and has a half life of a couple of weeks; Cesium 137 tends to gravitate toward muscle and has a half-life of about 30 years. Strontium 90, which concentrates in bones, lasts almost as long. The affect of all of this needs to be factored in to any estimates of post-Fukushima morbidity.
So, as one might imagine, Dr. Suzuki’s cancer estimate, be it from his own deliberate downplay or O’Brien’s sloppy framing, is widely disputed. In fact, a quick survey of the literature might call the estimate in Frontline an absurdly low outlier.
By way of example, take findings compiled by Fairwinds Associates, an engineering and environmental consulting firm often critical of the nuclear industry. Using data from the National Academy of Science’s report on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), Fairwinds explains that one in every 100 girls will develop cancer for every year they are exposed to that “conservative” 20 mSv of radiation. But Fairwinds believes the BEIR also underestimates the risk. Fairwinds introduces additional analysis to show that “at least one out of every 20 young girls (5%) living in an area where the radiological exposure is 20 millisieverts for five years will develop cancer in their lifetime.”
It should be noted here that five years of 20 mSv per year would equal 100 mSv lifetime exposure–the newly revised lifetime maximum set by Japan after the start of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. And some cities in northern Japan, uncomfortable with this blanket prescription, have set limits for children at one millisievert per year.
None of this information was hard to find, and all of it stems from data provided by large, respected institutions, yet, for some reason, O’Brien and Frontline felt content to let their single source set a tone of “no big deal.” Worried Japanese residents featured just after the interview with Dr. Suzuki are portrayed as broadly irrational, if not borderline hysterical.
The dismissive tenor of the medical segment carries over to several other parts of “Nuclear Aftershocks.” Take Frontline’s assessment of the German reaction to the meltdowns at Fukushima Daiichi. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has pledged to entirely phase out their reliance on nuclear power within the next decade. O’Brien call this decision “rash” and “hasty,” and he doesn’t qualify those adjectives as the viewpoint of one expert or another; instead, he uses them matter-of-factly, as if everyone knows that Germany is a nation of jittery, irresponsible children. The political reality–that the German government is actually pursuing a policy that is the will of the people–is treated as some sort of abomination.
Japanese anti-nuclear protestors get similar treatment from Frontline. That large demonstrations like those seen over the last ten months are a rare and special occurrence in Japan is not considered. Instead, the documentary, time and again, hints at a shadowy doomsday somewhere in the near future, a sort of end-of-civilization scenario caused by an almost instant cessation of nuclear power generation. Indeed, as the program ends, O’Brien declares that every nuclear plant in Japan will be shut down by May–and as he says this, the camera peers out the window of a slow-moving elevated train. The view is a darkened Japanese city, and as O’Brien finishes his monologue, the train grinds to a halt.
Ooh, skeddy. Was this Frontline, or Monster Chiller Horror Theater?
Yes, the end seemed that absurd. “Nuclear Aftershocks” paints a picture many members of both the nuclear and fossil fuels lobbies would love to have you believe: a sort of zero-sum, vaguely binary, cake-or-death world where every possible future holds only the oldest, dirtiest and most dangerous options for electrical power generation. You get coal, you get gas, or you get nuclear–make up your mind!
But the show, like the handmaidens of those out-dated technologies, perverts the argument by glossing over the present and omitting choices for the future. As much as many concerned citizens would like to see nuclear power disappear overnight, it will not. Germany is giving itself a decade, the US is looking to run its aging reactors for another twenty years, and even Japan, dream though they might, will likely not decommission every reactor in the next four months. There is a window–big or small depending on your point of view–but a decided period of time to shift energy priorities.
Even the nuclear advocates who appear on Frontline call nuclear power “a bridge”–but if their lobby and their fossil fuel-loving brethren have their way, it will likely be a bridge to nowhere.
“Nuclear Aftershocks” does mention Germany’s increased investment in a wind- and solar-powered future, but the show calls that shift “a bold bet” and “a risk.”
Likely the producers will argue they did not have time for a deeper exploration, but by allowing fissile and fossil fuel advocates to argue that renewables cannot meet “base load” requirements, while failing to discuss recent leaps forward in solar and wind technology, or how well Japan’s wind turbines weathered the Tohoku quake and tsunami–or, for that matter, how much Japanese citizens have been able to reduce their electrical consumption since then through basic conservation–Frontline’s creators are guilty of flat-earth-inspired editing.
Indeed, missing from almost every discussion of the future of power generation is how much we could slow the growth in demand through what is called efficiencies–conservation, passive design, changes in construction techniques, and the replacement and upgrading of an aging electric infrastructure. The Frontline documentary highlights some of the potential risks of an accident at New York’s Indian Point nuclear generating station, but it contrasts that concern with nearby New York City’s unquenchable thirst for electricity. Missing entirely from the discussion: that New York could make up for all of Indian Point’s actual output by conserving a modest amount and replacing the transmission lines that bring hydroelectric power from the north with newer, more efficient cable.
No single solution is a panacea for every region of the globe, but many alternatives need to be on the table, and they certainly ought to be in any discussion about the “aftershocks” of nuclear’s annus horribilis. It should be seen as impossible to evaluate nuclear energy without considering the alternatives–and not just the CO2-creating, hydrofracking alternatives that are the standby bugbear of those infatuated with atomic power. Coal, gas, and nuclear are our links to the past; renewables and increased efficiency are our real bridge to the future. Just as it is dishonest to evaluate the cost of any of the old-school energy technologies without also considering environmental impact and enormous government subsidies–and now, too, the costs of relocating hundreds of thousands or millions of people and treating untold numbers of future health problems–it is also misleading to treat energy funds as permanently allocated to entrenched fuels.
The billions pledged to the nuclear industry by the Obama administration dwarf the budgets and tax incentives for conservation, alternative fuels, and green technology innovation combined. Factor in the government-shouldered costs of cleanup and waste storage, not to mention the sweetheart deals granted to the hydrocarbon crowd, and you could put together a program for next-generation generation that would make the Manhattan Project look like an Our Gang play (“My dad has an old barn!” “My mom can sew curtains!”).
It is a grave disappointment that Frontline couldn’t take the same broad view. The producers will no doubt argue that they could only say so much in 50 minutes, but like Japan, Germany, and the United States, they had choices. For the governments of these industrialized nations, the choices involve their energy futures and the safety of their citizens; for the Frontline crew, their choices can either help or hinder those citizens when they need to make informed choices of their own. For all concerned, the time to make those choices is now.
It is a shame that “Nuclear Aftershocks” instead used its time to run interference for a dirty, dangerous and costly industry.



24 Comments

It was utterly shameful, including the constant repetition of the false claim that nuclear power is cheaper and better. One more reason to shun ‘Frontline’. The last good program they did was on credit card fraud many years back. That was, I guess, a watershed moment – too good to be true so you never saw the folk who put that one together again. (And you never see it as one of their ‘repeats’ either.)
Thanks for this, Gregg.
Anyone who thinks that we can’t depend on renewables — and more to the point, quickly switch over to renewables — is either ignorant or lying. Look at China. They’ve gone from having zero wind and solar ten years ago to being the world leader in both.
The idea that demand will always be ramping up in amounts that only nuclear can fulfill is bullshit, too. US gasoline consumption peaked in 2007, the dropped dramatically in 2008 and 2009, and while it’s creeping back up again, that’s with a larger number of cars on the road and more of these cars are fuel-efficient ones like hybrids, so total gas consumption hasn’t even made it back to 2004 levels yet.
Thank you for this. I rarely watch Frontline bc it’s so completely biased and filled with misinformation that it’s a waste of time.
The one they did on Pfc Bradley Manning last year is much like this one on Fukushima.
Utterly unsurprised. The 1% owns & operates such shows as Frontline on PBS, so the gullible public believes that they are getting viewpoints & info untainted by corporate bias, which couldn’t be further from the truth.
Good post on highlighting the many fallacies in this program.
I notice something else right off the bat. Notice the framing. O’Brien reports what levels the Japanese government set for evacuation and he discussed the consequences of exposure of 20 millisieverts per year but nowhere did I see him mention what the levels actually were! So even though at 20mSv/y the increased mortality is 0.2 percent, that goes up exponentially as the exposure rises. The 20mSv/y is a minimum level for evacuation, not the actual levels in the area.
Nice analysis!
recommended
They probably don’t run that one because it prominently features Liz Warren.
I would love to see a detailed breakdown of their funding–but even that might not tell the whole story. You know something is up, but I don’t want to just fire off allegations without case and point.
I used to really look forward to this show, now? Meh.
Yes, good point. Some near the facility and those under the first big plume (and those actually evacuated to an area inside the first big plume) got substantially higher doses for some period of time. Plant workers, who are normally expected to get no more than 20 mSv/y are now, of course, off the charts.
Thanks!
Another good point. Thanks.
And thanks for the links on Japanese wind technology and the French leukemia study, too. There was so much more I could have talked about here, but I think 2,000 words is enough for just about anyone’s Friday.
The cars and the declines in current japanese electrical consumption show that both government policy and externalities that motivate a national effort can have dramatic effects on consumption. But acknowledging that would mean that leaders might have to lead.
recc’ very informative, well written
loved frontline, it was the best kind of journalism
then the bank bailout debacle peice,has never been the same
again thanks
Thanks. And there was so much more I could have hit. I really wanted to note that they rely almost entirely on MIT School of Nuclear Sciences & Engineering professors for their supposedly unbiased expert opinions. They are different faces, but they are all from the same program.
Graduate nuclear science programs across the country have been (dare I say?) tainted by industry money. You kind of can’t blame them–they have to raise money somewhere–but it shapes a program. Not saying the profs aren’t smart or dedicated, but the money can shape your research and the questions you ask. ANd the students who want a job right out of school know that their best bet for real money is inside the nuclear industry.
Thank you!
I don’t understand what the problem is. U.S. nukes at Nagasaki and Hiroshima resulted in fewer deaths than U.S. firebombing of Tokyo. So doesn’t that prove that nukes are safe?
The NYT Green Blog ran a short interview with Miles O’Brien this week and one of the reader comments under it was almost exactly this argument. I kid you not.
Cheap as in with government subsidies paid for by taxpayers and clean as in some funky definition of clean. My tv watching consists of “rentals” from the library. My translator box is in a drawer and I don’t miss it.
And I suppose that reader did not intend it as snark.
Thanks Gregg I thought frontline went away along time ago when the rest of pbs tanked. You’ve seen this site no doubt. Hell Denmark will be off all that shit by 2020, amazing.
http://enenews.com/
saw the frontline. fraudulent and corrupt, that’s pbs. too bad. another one gone and another one gone and another one bites the dust. ( institutions that might once have offered a measure of protection from the brute force of corporatism.)
Yes–I always feel I need to corroborate ene, but it serves as a good clearinghouse. Thanks!
The other point in discussing the radiation exposure for the area. Everyone throws around the half-life figure as if the isotope becomes safe when it reaches that time period Radioactive Iodine has a half life of a couple of weeks. It is still radioactive in a couple of weeks just half as much. Cesium 137 has a half life of thirty years. This does not mean that it will be safe in 30 years, it means that it will be half as radioactive in 30 years. It will degrade half as much again in another 30 years. Reaching half life does not denote safety. It merely denotes time to degrade. The half life for the Plutonium at Fukushima plutonium 238, with a half life of 88 years; plutonium 239, with a half life of 24,000 years; and plutonium 240, with a half life of 6,500 years. This means these isotopes will be half as dangerous as they are today when they hit their half-life.
True. I often shorthand this fact, but it does well to occasionally spell it out. Thanks.
Nope.
There is plenty of data with respect to smoke you raise. Inside the 20km evacuation area most regions have a dose rate wich amount to less than 20mSv/year. (for example see page 4: http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1326955597P.pdf or http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima/statusreports/fukushima22_12_11.html). Also, it is well known that chronic doses (received over extended period) are less of a problem that doses received quickly. In radiation therapy cancer patients routinely get doses also to healthly tissue which should be lethal if you were to take linear no threshold type of arguments literally. This does not happen since body has multitude of defences against DNA damage and the damage can override the defences only at very high dose rates. In fact small dose is more likely to stimulate defences rather than cause harm.
If the dose is received fast (like after Hiroshima) there is some evidence of elevated cancer risk if the dose was larger than about 100mSv. The extra risk is about 0.5-1%/100mSv so it is consistent with the figures apparently quoted in “Aftershock” (which you do not seem to “approve” even though this very conservative figure widely accepted among experts as a worst case figure for low dose rates.) Below 100mSv there is no proof of harm (except for smokers in areas of high radon concentration). In fact, there are regions in the world which have much higher background dose rates than the average. In Ramsar (Iran) you could get 100mSv a year, but people there do not show elevated cancer rates (http://inderscience.metapress.com/content/a6m47xex0na3jn55/). They should if these risk figures that you disapprove as too low would be correct.
Among the rescue workers (most exposed group), there are 99 people who have received a dose that is higher than 100mSv. Applying the 1%/100mSv rate we find at most 1-2 excess cancer deaths among the rescue workers. Since most of them have received their dose quite slowly and their health will be better monitored than others even this estimate is probably too high (…and of course it is unobservable compared to around 30 cancer deaths that would occur in any case). (http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima/statusreports/fukushima08_12_11.html)
Your statement “Miles O’Brien seems almost incredulous that anyone would be showing concern over a .2 percent increase, but in Japan, a .2 percent increase in cancer deaths means 2,000 more deaths.” is silly. The increased risk (if there is any) only applies to those who have received this additional dose and not people in general. Also, keep in mind that for example particulate matter in the air increases mortality by around 0.26%/year for eavh increase of 15mug/m^3 in PM2.5 (See laden et al. and Krewski et al. http://pubs.healtheffects.org/view.php?id=6 andhttp://ajrccm.atsjournals.org/content/173/6/667.full.pdf). So to the extent that people have been evacuated
to regions with heavier trafic and pollution levels they will be worse of than staying in a cleaner air with 20mSv/year background dose levels. Furthermore, it is known for Chernobyl that the main health consequence of the accident was due to stress caused by evacations and fear.
Fascinating to read the ramblings of environmental fanatics. I appreciate the depths of the self-delusion even more.
Wow, TWO new registered commenters with their first comments to end a thread. Somethin’s happenin’ here.
The death throes of a dying technology. Problem is, nuclear’s flailing hits a lot of innocent bystanders.