Leveraging means something like this. You sell $10 million in stock. You use this money as the basis to take out a loan so you can buy $100 million in mortgages. Now say you issue mortgage backed securities based on these and sell them. Now you have a $100 million in cash so you go out and buy more mortgages only this time you use your $100 million to buy a billion dollars of them. You have just leveraged your initial $10 million 100 times. This works if you, your banks, and the buyers of your paper are all sufficiently greedy. Why would banks loan you $100 million on $10 million collateral? The short answer is they wouldn’t for you or me, but they would and did to financial companies because of the fees and interest they made off of such transactions and because they “knew” those companies were good for it. This was all much easier to believe on the upside of the bubble because the value of the underlying assets (houses) kept going up. So even if a few percent of the mortgages defaulted, a) the house’s value is greater than at the start and you can sell it again and b) the overall value of the mortgage package on which all this was based kept going up as well. Banks were also making money in fees from writing loans and the companies they were loaning money to were precisely the ones who were buying these mortgages off them so that the banks could make more money in fees writing yet more mortgages.
As for derivatives, pertinent to this discussion, we are talking about two types. The first we have already mentioned. These are the mortgage backed securities. They are not the mortgages themselves but a financial instrument (or to use the technical term “thingy”) based upon or derived from them. (Buyers of these are not interested in the underlying asset but in the cash flow from it, i.e. the mortgage payments.) These can themselves be further sliced and diced into further generations of derivatives. For example, one that is based on 50% of this derivative plus 30% of that one and a final 20% of a third. And so on and so on. All this was to dilute and spread risk or moral hazard, but it also had the effect of putting vast distance between the mortgage title and the holders of the derivatives based on that mortgage. This raises two issues. First, it may be difficult to impossible to establish who is the ultimate holder of the last derivative in a chain of derivatives going back to the original mortgage backed security. Second, it is unclear that anyone in the derivative chain actually has a claim on the mortgage title.
The second kind of derivative is the swap. This was a kind of insurance policy in the event that some mortgages declined in value. This derivative basically said if you pay me a certain fixed amount say every 6 months I will make good on any difference between what you initially paid for your mortgage backed security and what it is worth when you come see me. When the housing market was going up, this amounted to essentially free money for the issuers of this kind of derivative. They could sell it as extra insurance to conservative institutions secure in the knowledge that the housing market would rise forever. Except of course it didn’t. The original idea was that if a package of mortgages or tranch loss value because of a high rate of defaults, the swaps or insurance buyer could demand a settlement from the swaps issuer to make up for the loss of revenue. Now on the upside of the bubble, default rates were low. Homes that went into default could be resold at even higher prices so there was no downside. However, when the bubble burst, default rates went up and issuers of these derivatives didn’t face payouts on one or two of them but on a huge number of them.
Now what is really amazing is that even as things got unsettled in the housing markets the unbridled greed of financial companies caused them to keep issuing swaps. And here’s the thing about them. Someone who wanted to take out this kind of insurance wasn’t limited to taking it out once but could take it out multiple times and so multiply their gains paradoxically off their losses. A derivative has often been described as a bet. You don’t need to own the horse to bet on it nor does it mean you can’t bet on it more than once.
And there is yet another thing. The issuer of the swap, the one who would be stuck paying out for losses, could go and buy another derivative which insured it against any losses which it might get hit with. Then the issuer of that derivative could go out and buy one to cover any potential losses it might have and so on and so on. Again amazingly all those things were out there and companies were often both buying and selling them so that they might be the seller of one of these swap derivatives and a generation or two later in the process be the buyer of one, and all of them involving the same initial deal.
You may be reeling about now and have decided this is madness. Well, it was. But it was a madness that took place out in the open in plain sight of governments and regulators around the world. And not one of them did jack to stop it.



14 Comments




Great post Hugh, thanks for the explanation!
Hugh, wonderfully done. I’m amazed you could do this in so few words.
Is this the only place you’ve posted it?
Thanks, Hugh, for the explication. I’m going to have to read it a couple more times to get the explanation.
Are you in a financial business?
I suspected this stuff was convoluted, all driven by upfront fees (the greed) but I had no idea how bizarre it was.
Is the root of the problem mortgage-backed securities? Can this be resolved in the future by simply going back to mortgage holders, period, ban the huge leveraging, fancy securities and derivatives?
I hope that’s not a dumb question….
Not in anything financial at all. Just an interested observer.
I should point out that I am still not sure if the credit default swaps were solely based on defaults and so the revenue stream or on the value of the tranch as a whole. I have seen it reported both ways.
There is a place for derivatives in the financial system just not the crazy, loony tunes ways they have been used. First, there uncontrolled use constitutes by far the most serious threat to the financial system. Second, by essentially eliminating risk, they encouraged and rewarded often stupendously bad and stupid decisions.
dugg
I just wish all the people being forclosed would go to a judge and ask to see their note. All those leverages and derivatives are just a bunch of worthless paper. Until Paulson hands over $700 billion for them. SIGH!!
karen
So we start with mortgages and bonds. Credit derivatives are insurance-type wagers on how whether or not a given party to a contract will fulfill the terms of that contracts. Other derivatives are mixtures (linear combinations) of mortgages, bonds, and pre-existing derivatives. IMHO:
– The government should not buy derivatives but rather stick to the underlying mortgages and bonds — fix the problem at the root.
– The government not buy instruments that had less than a AAA rating the last time they were sold — their purchasers knew they were involved in serious speculation.
– The difference between the purchase price and the market price should be made up via equity in the selling entity — warrants might be acceptable.
This is happening. Foreclosures are often stalled in favor of the borrower because the forclosing party is not the actual mortgage holder (and he doesn’t know who is)! It really is a nightmare from all angles.
Dugg you, Hugh! Recommended, too.
The notes are generally endorsed in blank, that is they become bearer instruments. The mortgages legal title is assigned to some entity who claims to be the “owner” of the note because it is also possesses the “bearer” instrument. This is a new twist because personal property, except for trusts which have different rules, is not divided into legal and equitable ownerships. If a judge, via disclosure, learns that ownership of the note, that is the entity who owns the right to the principal and interest, cannot be established, he could, in some states, decide the mortgage note, therefore the mortgage, is unenforceable. That would be an easy way out of the mess, give the homeowner a windfall which many will object to, and place the loss where it belongs. I doubt it will happen.
Thanks, Hugh, that was very helpful. I am a new comer to this site, so forgive me if this has already been addressed. I am a psychologist by profession. When people come to me for help, I don’t expect them to know anything about the diagnostic nomenclature (nonsense that it is), therapeutic technique, or assessment procedure.
Now, I am reasonably smart guy, but when I signed the (many) papers for my mortgage, did I read, digest, and understand all of that? Of course not. Rather, I depended on the integrity of my mortgage lender that all of that was in order. I would be interested to know how many folk who sign on the bottom line for their mortgage actually know what they are agreeing to. My guess is it is only a tiny percent. Like me, they depended on the integrity of the lender. Thus, I do not believe it is valid to hold the borrowers of mortgages they could not afford on the same plain as the lenders. Thus, the either/or argument of whether we believe in home ownership or not put forward by conservatives is a false dilemma. It is not that so many of the people could not afford a home; they could not afford the home they were seduced into buying.
Great synopsis; synchs with what I’ve been able to suss out.
Thank you, Hugh.
I hope this reaches many readers.
Thank you, Hugh. I picked up some of what you’re talking about from Ian, but I was having a hard time understanding how they could have leverage at 100 to 1 and make any money. Also, anything beyond that seemed just too insane to be real, so I convinced myself I must not be understanding this right. It was nothing more than a glorified Ponzi scheme. Now I know that I understood it perfectly well, and it was just insanity or worse. All of them deserve to lose their money, including the ones who actually own the underlying mortgages, imho.
Therefore, if the government is to buy back anything, they should only buy back the underlying mortgages, and they should buy them back at fire sale prices, since the value of the homes may or may not exceed the fire sale price the government pays. I’m talking discounts in the 30%-60% range. Too bad, so sad. and all that! If a bank or financial entity owns the derivatives are then broke, as in bankrupt, I guess they should file bankruptcy and/or be taken over by the government, lock, stock and barrel. If it is not bankrupt, but is still in need of some recapitalization, then they must allow the government to buy equity shares in exchange for a cash infusion. In the meanwhile, lets quit letting homes go dark while the families that ended up under water through whatever unfortunate circumstances befell them (not the ones who got into this position as acts of fraud or just as speculators to make a killing) end up homeless. We ought to see if it’s possible to do what we in the real estate business call a workout.
Since it will take time to work this all through, we need a temporary moratorium of some sort wherein the families pay a market rent while the government sorts out the details of all the deals within an area, which properties need to be foreclosed and sold, which can be worked out, and which need other sorts of dispositions. I saw on TV recently that there is an area of Phoenix where apx. every fourth house is a foreclosure or for sale. This is not good for any area, and as long as this is allowed to happen, recovery will not begin.
Lastly, hopefully they will not let Paulson or Bernacke or Cox or any of those responsible for not dealing with this problem before it got out of hand do any wheeling and dealing on this. If others outside of government saw this coming two years ago, so should have the head of Treasury, the Fed, and SEC. Buying of assets should initially be handled by whatever board they can put together. Once they’ve determined who owned the underlying assets, the homes’ management should be turned over to a department who knows how to handle it, like HUD or FHA. They will know the best way to handle disposition of the assets. What a mess! This was mostly done by really sophisticated people and a lot of it was exacerbated by predatory lending practices. Yet many of the same people have the nerve to look down their noses at the families whose main fault in many cases seems to have been having hopes and dreams of sharing in the feeling of pride derived from home ownership.
Most likely standard forms issued by Freddie Mack were used. Nothing you could do about the boiler plate which is not the problem. The note said it all, the amount of the loan and the terms. It is true people got caught up in the bubble and their desire for a home rather than be renters all their lives. The terms might be predatory, the points and fees larger than they should have been, but it was all out there