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Obama won on “values” not “demographics”…
President Obama’s pollster for both the election cycles in 2008 and 2012, Joel Benenson, says in an op-ed piece in the New York Times, that President Obama won on “values” and not on “demographics.” Yeah, and if you believe Benenson, I’ve got the Big Hole or the Grand Canyon available for sale.
Now, I’ve been known to be wrong in the past, and if so, then this election was all about and between the “conservative” Republican Mitt Romney and the “conservative” Democrat. Therefore, this election was all about “who is and was the better conservative.” Consequently, the results speak to and for the better Conservative and that being President Obama.
However, Joel Benenson has this to say in his op-ed and dated today, November 8, 2012, and titled, “Values, Not Demographics, Won the Election.”
“The president’s victory was a triumph of vision, not of demographics. He won because he articulated a set of values that define an America that the majority of us wish to live in: A nation that makes the investments we need to strengthen and grow the middle class. A nation with a fair tax system, and affordable and excellent education for all its citizens. A nation that believes that we’re most prosperous when we recognize that we are all in it together.
“Moreover, Mr. Obama’s strength on the economy was not about “empathy,” as many experts asserted. Rather, for average working-class and middle-class Americans who have believed for nearly a decade that the economic system in America had fallen out of balance for people like them, the president’s personal story and policies engendered trust because they connected with voters’ lives, aspirations, and beliefs about what it would take to create the future they wanted. That trust was the central economic test in this election.”
Unfortunately, for Benenson, he was not “correct” since he did not factor Latino-voting behavior into his model. Moreover, Nate Silver of 538 fame and contracted political pollster for the New York Times has been proven “correct” but only after he “adjusted” his Model to include the greater impact of our votes from our respective Native American and Chicano communities.
Further, I predicted that President Obama would win at least seven of the nine swing states. To date, I was ‘wrong’ in that New Hampshire would fall into the Romney Column. As such, Florida has yet to announce itself for the Obama Column, but when it does, I will be correct in an eight-for-nine. Thus, it was not Trust for those of us here in the Sonoran Desert. To wit, the first two issues were “Jobs” and “More Jobs” with a distant third issue being Comprehensive Immigration Reform since immigration has, either a direct of indirect impact, on our immediate families as well as our Friends and Neighbors.
And that’s why Benenson will have to get past his self-imposed propaganda tropes and done in order to make America’s foremost “conservative” Democrat palatable to us for the next four years.
19 Comments
Well, yes, of course it was all about the demographics and you were exactly right all along. No wonder you are either ignored or condescended to ny the MyFDL echo chamber, whic is also spinning away today in about the same hackneyed fashion as the Dems and the GOP both.
This pollster’s spin is part of the song and dance that accompanies all politics, win or lose. The winning side doesn’t want to add anything that will stir the GOP to awaken from its half-senile old white man slumber so they spin values, which is partly true but the full response should be “values prized by minourities, women, the gay community and the young”.
The GOP side really has some soul searching to do as do the white middle third party class progressives who also ignored and still seem to ignore that they will go nowhere politically until they join coalition with Latino, Asian and black voters. And recognise in joining that we, the aging whites, are the juniour partners not the vanguard we delusionally believe ourselves to be.
But of course, reading today it seems the jist either hasn’t been gotten or they prefer to remain in denial for another four years.
Yawn. How many election cycles will it take? Old white people have fewer and fewer to get on board with the future.
Oh and highly recommended!
Actually, it might proceed without us old, white seniors. We won’t live forever, thank god, and as we leave, the population gets more tolerant and less bellicose. What we really need is a thorough, spare no one clean out at the top. Bunch of intellectually decrepit, morally hollow obstacles to progress–even the relatively young ones.
Good analysis, jaango. It also may help to convince some folks that comprehensive immigration reform can happen, not that I think OBomba would take the lead on it. But…he may at least accede to any movement in that direction. That would be a good thing, if the policy were good.
Couldn’t agree with you more.
The youth are not a monolith either. Many are socially liberal and fiscally conservative I find. My own son, for one. Sure, he’s young and will change as he grows older.
The battle between good/evil, left/right, God/atheist, these will endure for as long as people exist, or until the unlikely event that the entire world becomes enlightened through Buddha.
Excellent comment, LA.
Recommended.
Yes it’s about demographics and
Politics is all about getting things done generally by building coalitions. You’d think that would be obvious wouldn’t you? But when I made that point here recently the reply I got back (I kid you not) was:
“America is different”.
mfi
meanwhile, Democrats reject ANY notion of mandate, pivot to “coaltiion building” to implement the Grand Bargain, lower corporate taxes and more…Also,Senate Dems move to enact “Filibuster Reform” hoping, no doubt, to be a weak minority should Republicans take the Senate in the next few election cycles.
The betrayal of the Dems to the working class is nearly immediate this time around with this coalition of the schilling….hopefully some folks will wake up now….but I doubt it.
In his article about why he voted Green Party: http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/why_im_voting_green_20121029/ Chris Hedges explains to folks who may not be aware, how nearly all major correctives to U.S. Democracy have come by way of Third Parties…parties that never actually won very much in terms of elections, but who forced the major parties to acknowledge the issues they advocated.
I don’t believe that the Democratic Party can be reformed…regardless of the demographics. I may be wrong. The Republican Party can only last so much longer in its present form….it will be interesting to see what it manifests into over time. I don’t know what to expect as to what the end result will be.
What I DO expect, is for the Republican Party to get meaner, nastier and scarier as it implodes; before it gets any better. I forsee no mechanism by which to punish corporatist Dems who will appear more and more acceptable to the alternative. I shudder to think of the amount of neoliberal and rightwing legislation that will be passed during this transition period….and I have no idea what to expect at the other side of it.
mfi,
Thanks for the comment. It brightened my day.
Other day, when I posted here at the Lake, and with regard to the high level of viability for same-sex marriage, I suggested that the Internet discourse, was an ever-increasing dynamic supportive of same-sex marriage, my post disappeared. And that’s fine with me.
Alas, in the ‘rough and tumble’ of the early internet days and of flame wars personified, the one reactive comment that always brought a smile to my face and a quiet chuckle, was the comment of “If you don’t like America, get the hell out!” Therefore, I’ll match you key stroke for key stroke on “America is different.” :-)
Jaango
This blog is what’s different.
Although I sense the fever caused by the echo chamber has broken decisively after the election and there is a slight chance for the delerium to pass into the dustbin of forgotten/forgiven once we pass through the stages of grief.
Even here. I hope.
I don’t see where the Obama “True Believer Fever” has broken at all.
It’s about both demographics and values. You can’t call two important demographic groups — women and Latinos — sluts and illegals!
Actually it was mostly about the OBomba campaign scaring people into thinking that the guy whom he agrees with on cutting Social Security, continuing the Bush/Cheney War Without End on Terror, coddling the banksters and plutocrat set, ignoring the biggest and most destructive white-collar crime wave in history and whose health-care “reform” plan was the basis of OBomba’s signature policy achievement was too scary to be President.
And even at that, Obomba got roughly 7 million fewer votes than he did in 2008 and barely beat perhaps the most clownish, ill-prepared, ignorant and sociopathic candidate by 2% or less in the popular vote.
But clap louder you Dem/OBomba shill. And keep cashing those checks from OFA or the DLC of whatever the fuck DC Mafia organization is paying you to post this drivel.
Ooh a challenge :-) QWERTYs at dawn? Donkeytale can refereee.
Interesting posting anent marriage equality. I found this paragraph particularly telling:
Marriage Equality History Made as Same-Sex Marriage Approved in Maine and Maryland | Elections:
You may be interested to know that in Europe the experience of gays marrying has been (surprise surprise) that these marriages are equally viable (same divorce rate) as their heterosexual counterparts. When I’m not in Irak I live in Denmark which was the first country ever to legalise (in the sense of giving legal status to them) gay marriages.
The trend in Denmark is that over time the more subtle forms of discrimination against gay couples have vanished. At present the political struggle is to allow adoption by gay couples. I’ve no doubt that they’ll get there eventually. This isn’t to say that there isn’t still homophobia in Denmark there is, but it is now seen as something shameful. I’d call that progress.
I’ll add that this seems to be happening in the UK as well despite various hysterical homophobic rantings by several UK Conservative party figures and other groups to the right even of them.
Back on topic: I’d be interested in your opinion on how you think matters will unfold for Native American and Chicano communities over the next few years.
mfi
mfi,
For the next two decades, we, the Native Americans and Chicanos, will continue to be dragged along by the Old and Tired White Dudes, as per the “leadership cabal” consisting of “conservatives” located within the Democratic Coalition. Therefore, some insightful persons or a small group of persons will come forward and craft the Monolithic Equity Movement that will encapsulate all the various factions and issues pertaining to Equality, in its various forms. When this does occur, the “leadership cabal” will be unable to co-opt such an effort, given that history has both a bark and a sizable bite.
Take, for example, back in the late 1960s and 1970s, the Chicano Movement created the La Raza Unida political party, as an off-shoot of the Democratic Coalition, in Crystal City, Texas. It won a variety of local offices, and then, ran out of gas, for when it came to winning in much larger races, statewide and congressional races. Today, this off-shoot organization is now safely ensconsced in the Democratic Coalition.
And in particular, here in Arizona, the Democratic candidate for Congress from Northeastern Arizona, is winning, even as the ballots are still being counted due to the over 500,000 ballots, both mail-in and provisional ballots, and with folks camped out at the Election Office–throughout the subsequent nights, to insure that these ballots are ‘factually’ counted. Consequently, the Democratic candidate is slightly ahead in this count, and all because the Navajo Nation is determined to see their votes ‘factually’ counted.
Jaango
But just because Benenson doesn’t specifically mention Hispanics doesn’t mean he’s saying they don’t matter, and I don’t see anything in his essay that excludes them. Moreover, there’s nothing in his essay that isn’t compatible with the idea that it was a contest between a conservative Republican and a conservative Democrat, that I can see. Plenty of pundits and analysts are talking about Hispanics post-election. I guess I don’t see why they all have to in order to be valid.
Well stated, Jaango. Logical, topical, factual illustration of how politics works in the US.
cal222,
Unfortunately, one of America’s “values” is found in the actualization of Intolerance. And from the use of the Latino “yardstick” is the “feature” and not the “bug” is the Intolerance that is inherent in Arizona’s SB 1070 and HB 2281, and that’s just for one particular peice of ammo found in the Starter’s Gun.
Of course, being subjected to the “Papers Pleez..” on a daily basis, does tend to “square” the mind, knowing that during this Election Season, only once did President Obama ever mention President G>W.Bush, and perhaps, this too can be excused as a Freudian Slip. Of course, none of us here in the Sonoran Desert, ever expect to see President Obama relative to any discussion of “issues” but he will show up to collect the monies from deserving money donors.
In closing, when I see Progressives in large measure, challenging the ‘conservative’ Democrats in any primary election, only then, will I cut the Obama administration, a little slack. As such, defending incumbents, is the only game in town. Obviously, lost in all this election season, Obama did not campaign, for the most part, on down ballot candidates, and the “coat tails” did not occur. And the “net two” gain in the Senate, had no Obama fingerprints on this gain.
Jaango
Ever take a look at one of those video games for the new, ‘peaceful’ generation? And then there’s cable. I won’t even get into that.
As a computer tech, I have some acquaintance. I take some of it as just another form of pornography. Not a gamer, myself, tho. Be interesting to look carefully at who plays what, for how many hours over a given time frame, stuff like that.