I am the Afghanistan Blogging Fellow for The Seminal and Brave New Foundation. You can read my work on The Seminal or at Rethink Afghanistan. The views expressed below are my own.
By now everyone has just about lost their damn minds about this New York Times article detailing Afghanistan’s "discovery" of vast amounts of mineral wealth. Yes, it’s way crazy old information (like the 70′s old). Yes, it’s Pentagon propaganda. If you’ve been reading us here, you already know ISAF’s counter-insurgency strategy is a flaming wreck, and you already know what they’re going to do about that. Propaganda and misinformation are all part of it.
But if your reaction has been typical, that of only sneering derision and snide condescension (guilty!), you’ve missed the point. Part of understanding propaganda is knowing its intended audience. We do this automatically when, say, Iranian President Ahmadinejad blames evil CIA spies for whatever it is that’s bothering him that day; unemployment, tummy ache, whatever. We understand right away that this is not about us, about Americans. Rather, it’s aimed at a domestic Iranian audience with very real fears about foreign interference. Only in the case of Afghanistan’s minerals, we’re personalizing it, assuming it’s aimed at us. It’s not for you, though. This propaganda has a very specific audience, and so far it’s working perfectly.
Steve Hynd picks up on it [emphasis mine]:
However, guaranteed U.S. access to "strategic reserves" of "strategic minerals", where possession is nine tenths of the game and the resources are just as valuable still in the ground as mined and processed for market, is a heady brew to mostly-hawkish senior policymakers and Very Serious think-tankers, especially if the end of the sentence goes ‘and China doesn’t get them". Risen’s stenography isn’t aimed at us, but at them and will be used to add some geopolitical weight to the arguements McChrystal and others are already beginning to make as to why they should be allowed to break their promise to Obama and the U.S. should stay in Afghanistan a few years longer.
This story is aimed at the elites who make the wars. The Pentagon has handed the hawks in Washington a powerful factoid to be used and re-used endlessly in pursuit of their war.
How do we know this? Well, there are some very obvious clues. The article is loaded with crunchy, fact-y bits that appear substantive, but in reality have nothing to do with what’s actually at stake. Does it matter that they have rare-earth minerals and lithium for laptops and so on? No, it doesn’t matter if they struck the mother lode of chocolate ice cream. As Blake Hounsel writes, they don’t even have concrete, much less a sophisticated, multi-billion dollar mining industry capable of extracting, processing, and marketing these minerals to international companies. They want it to look like a lot of information ("Wow, lookit all the minerals!") but not actually answer any real questions ("Wait, can they even get it?").
Think-tankers love this kind of crap. They’d like nothing better than to somehow fit COIN and iPads (like most in the media, they’re commercial shills for both) into the same article. If you like your Macbook and your Prius and that application that makes your telephone fart, well, you’d better support our batshit crazy idea of invading and bombing Afghan into a peaceful democracy. Otherwise the Chinese will steal all of that copper, and they don’t give us anything (except everything).
But it’s better than that. You also have gems like this:
In 2004, American geologists, sent to Afghanistan as part of a broader reconstruction effort, stumbled across an intriguing series of old charts and data at the library of the Afghan Geological Survey in Kabul that hinted at major mineral deposits in the country. They soon learned that the data had been collected by Soviet mining experts during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, but cast aside when the Soviets withdrew in 1989.
During the chaos of the 1990s, when Afghanistan was mired in civil war and later ruled by the Taliban, a small group of Afghan geologists protected the charts by taking them home, and returned them to the Geological Survey’s library only after the American invasion and the ouster of the Taliban in 2001.
Neato, it’s just like Tom Clancy! Soviet resource wars, hidden documents – it’s all so exciting. And it even contains the secret weapon that bleeds the heart of every think-tanker and foreign policy wonk everywhere: the courageous, pro-American snitch. God bless you for "protecting" information that everybody already knew, "small group of Afghan geologists." And thank you, thank you, for keeping it a secret during your darkest eras and revealing it only when the American invaders arrived. I can only assume all Afghans are just as grateful for your selfish attempt at stifling development as we are!
We love to imagine the brown people we’re obliterating with missiles secretly know of our righteousness, deep down on the inside. Oh, that smart local, he secretly knows we’re the good guys! If you’ve ever read Richard Clarke’s epic, high fantasy novel Scorpion’s Gate, you already know this character. In it, a Saudi oil prince secretly falls in love with American democracy and carries out a coup, pretty much turning Saudi Arabia into Switzerland overnight. Of course, this is about as believable as some old, white Tea Partier in Oklahoma secretly reading the Hadith and the collected works of Sayyid Qutb in his basement, but whatever, foreign policy hawks never get tired of fetishing their own pet locals. Those Afghans know the truth, we’re the good guys!
Now that we’re clear who this propaganda about Afghanistan’s minerals is aimed at, is it working? See for yourself:
in emerging and underdeveloped states, weak legal systems and official corruption create incentives for powerful people to exploit those resources, rather than allow mineral wealth to fuel national renewal. Think Congo or Sierra Leone. It’s easy to tick off the ways in which what political scientists call the “Resource Curse” applies to Afghanistan: a tenuous legal structure; warlordism; war; foreign interventionism; corruption throughout the political system; an uneasy and unstable relationship between provincial and national authorities; and an uneasy and unstable relationship in provinces and districts with instruments of local governance as well as national governance.
Yay, the "Resource Curse." It’s one of those well-intentioned western excuses, dripping with irony and ignorance, used to insult other countries and hopefully justify a reason to bomb them. The sales pitch goes something like this: "Why, hold up there Ira -er, Afghanistan. Looks like you got a case of the failed state. Yessir, on account of the resource curse, that is. Luckily, we can sell you the cure! Y’see, it’s called counter-insurgency…"
But there’s a couple problems with this. Right away, it’s not a "curse." A curse implies that it’s somehow mystical, a supernatural affliction. Turning into Dracula is a curse. Discovering vast mineral wealth is not a curse. It’s not a magical mystery why Afghanistan, or any other country, suffers from this so-called curse. Ackerman was quite clear: "Tenuous legal structure; warlordism; war; foreign interventionism; corruption." Well gee whiz, how do you suppose that stuff happened? Foreign intervention? War? Are we so stupid that we don’t realize what we’re saying? War is a deliberate policy we choose, we fund, and we carry out. It’s not "oops, I guess Afghanistan is cursed." We did that.
But this obliviousness is also where we see the exact impact of the mineral propaganda. This isn’t "pro-war" propaganda so much as it is feeding excuses for why the war is failing. A failing war simply implies more war as icing on the cake. Remember, you can never blame the COIN strategy, it is sacred. But you can blame everything else, including Afghanistan itself. Andrew Exum spells it out for us:
But counterinsurgency strategies rest on the assumption that you can eventually weaken anti-government forces and reduce levels of violence to the point where a political process can take place in more peaceful circumstances. We now have one trillion fresh reasons why this assumption might not be valid for Afghanistan. I am not yet sure what this means for either U.S. and allied interests or the current strategy. I more or less agree with today’s editorial in the New York Times that our current strategy "still seems like the best chance to stabilize Afghanistan and get American troops home." But as the editorial noted, the news last week from Afghanistan was terrible. And I’m not sure this week’s news is any better.
Got that? COIN isn’t the problem, no, that’s our "best chance." The problem is how crappy Afghanistan is, and now they have "one trillion fresh reasons" to fight about something. Damn those ingrate Afghans, always wanting an equitable stake in their country’s resources. We’re just trying to move in with guns and bombs and dominate their wealth for our narrow corporate interests, you’d think they’d be nicer about it. If only their crooked government that we support wasn’t so corrupt and incompetent, like President Obama and his friends from Goldman Sachs.
See, Afghanistan is war torn, so that’s why our war isn’t working. Clearly the solution is more war. Voila! Resource Curse!
As we see, this isn’t some every day propaganda trying pitifully to sell a trillion dollar debt-war to a nation of unemployed. This is a very specific talking point explicitly targeting the foreign policy community, all as a part of the Pentagon’s blame game. It makes the Pentagon appear desperate, sure, but this isn’t a joke, some embarassing gaffe by the PR department. This is very real and very effective military propaganda. Blame everything, blame the Afghans, blame their lithium, just please don’t blame the war.
Want to save the princess and free Afghanistan of its mystical resource curse, also known as pressuring congress to end the war? You can do that. Join us on Rethink Afghanistan’s Facebook page and collaborate with the tens of thousands of others around the country working to bring this war to an end.



21 Comments




Thanks Josh. I’ve got my take going up on The Seminal’s front page at 6 pm EST. I see your point about the internalizing of propaganda, but I’m personally still skeptical this is going to work, mostly because they’ve tried this before and it hasn’t moved the “very serious people.” That said, it’s a transparent strategy, that’s for sure…
I don’t think a fair reading of my post could conclude that I was blaming Afghans for 30 years of war.
I didn’t say you did. In fact, I don’t think you blamed much of anything in that post. You were just referencing the Resource Curse, and what it entailed.
What I took issue with is the (accidental) orientalism of calling their problem a curse, when part of the curse involves us deliberately deciding to interfere. I realize you did not invent this phrase, or the concept, so when I go after it, it’s not you personally.
I called it oblivious because you write one post (as an example) on Taliban reconciliation talking about the US “responsibility” to interfere in Afghan politics, while in another you say Afghanistan’s minerals are “most likely a bad thing” because other countries will interfere. Those are not disconnected issues.
You can’t push for a policy of foreign interference and then lament the Afghan suffering from foreign interference. That, to me, seems oblivious.
But no, I don’t think you were blaming them at all.
It’s easy to take things personally, or misread what others have to say when we all get so worn down by external forces. Bad News abounds.
Sometimes we just need to take a deep breath and go for a long walk. Preferably on un-tarred beaches.
I think this has been known since before the 1970s – I think the British knew it in the 19th century (actually much as how this being used to play up the anti-Chinese foreign interference, the Brits did the same thing in the First Anglo-Afghan War claiming ironically enough to be doing it to prevent “foreign interference”), Marco Polo knew it in the middle ages and Alexander the Great knew it.
Thanks, Josh. It’s really good to have access to your thoughts.
When #Gary Faulkner shows up, strategic minerals hastily make their own arrangements for transport to the U.S.
John McCain was speaking when David Petraeus collapsed.
Is this thing on? Anyone at home? Maybe everyone went to take a nice long walk. Serves me right for suggesting that.
I’m So Ronrey.
Afghanistan just happens to be, historically, the gateway to the east.
That was the common excuse for subjugating it in past eras. I await expectantly for this meme to return to the New York Times.
Africa, Cecil Rhodes, Anglo American, and Rio Tinto Zinc.
Been there done that and eventually the locals revolt.
Can you believe the Chinese want the minerals? Well, they a next door, in Western Tibet, only a short train ride from our suppliers factories in China.
This isn’t about US jobs, it’s about US mining profits.
BOBO plays into this meme of state capitalism being evil and democratic capitalism being good because the later exploits its empire for the good of the people instead of hoarding the wealth for the elites favored by the stateists.
Only BOBO talks about it today as good BIG OIL vs. BAD STATE-run oil and that OB shouldnt confuse the two and be too hard on the Shells, the Exxons, the Chevrons because they are good democratic capitalists.
Yea, we all know they share the wealth, never externalize costs and are ready, willing and able to not lobby against severance and other taxes.
This analysis rings true.
But my first thought was that the target of this transparent Pentagon propaganda is various Afghan power brokers (read “warlords”) who might be bribed into collaborating with the imperialist occupier in order to get a piece of the lithium pie (yuck!).
This followup propaganda in the NYT seems to support that view.
Something like this was attempted, as I recall, a couple of years ago in Iraq. At the height of the Sunni insurgency, U.S. geologists announced the discovery of huge new oil reserves throught the country, including in the Sunni west. Of course it was transparent BS, but the idea was to get some of the Sunni tribal leaders thinking they should stop killing the occupiers and let them drill, baby, drill!
Quite. Been there, done that, have the T-shirt. Of course the Chinese want the minerals, but since YOU and I owe the Chinese so much money (make no mistake: it’s us serfs that owe the Chinese, certainly not our obscenely wealthy overlords), I figure that they might as well go and get it. Isn’t THAT why our soldiers and marines are there? amirite?
The one problem with this is that it implies that the Very Serious People didn’t know the resources were there all along, when in fact they did.
The true targets aren’t the Very Serious People. It’s the middlebrow people who uncritically watch the Sunday talks and think that makes them informed — rather like the folks who think that Rolex is a true high-end watch and have never heard of Patek Phillipe.
There you go. Yes, I agree. The minerals are well known by anyone who has any kind of middling interest in “what’s really going on.” Only those who haven’t been connecting the dots for years (as it appears that most of posting at FDL have been) and researching and investigating this stuff on our own, but who have some sort of interest in “keeping up,” will be surprised by this “sudden” discovery of minerals in Afghanistan.
When my sweetie and I heard the report yesterday on NPR, our immediate response was: THIS is news??? Of course, we also “got” the intention of the “news.”
Lithium—-
http://www.lithiumsite.com/Lithium_Market.html
“Right away, it’s not a “curse.” A curse implies that it’s somehow mystical, a supernatural affliction. Turning into Dracula is a curse. Discovering vast mineral wealth is not a curse…”
“May you be cursed to be born in interesting times”
That kind of curse?
Speaking for exploration geologists everywhere….Duh, who’d a thunk that they would have extensive mineral resources in that tectonically active mountain chain over there? This was Non-story of the week.
kick ass piece of writing there Mr Josh.