Via Right Now, Quinnipiac has released new polling on offshore drilling showing, among other things, a nine percent drop in the percentage of Americans who support offshore drilling. Here are some of the results of interest:
Democrats, liberals, minorities and young Americans continue to approve the President’s response to the disaster.
While the level of support for offshore drilling in Quinnipiac’s poll experienced a 9% decrease since August 2008, many other polls have shown a greater decline. This likely has something to do with how Quinnipiac framed the offshore drilling question: "To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose – drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas off shore?"
This wording of this question has multiple problems, but I’ll focus on one in particular.
A leading question is a question that contains a false presupposition. The potentially false presuppositions here are that expanded offshore drilling will "help solve the energy crisis" and "make America less dependent on foreign oil." As many commentators have noted, the energy crisis is primarily a demand-side problem. Efforts undertaken to marginally increase energy supplies, while ignoring the broader problems of waste and excessive consumption, will not necessarily do anything to "help solve the energy crisis." It is also not clear that increased offshore drilling would "make America less dependent on foreign oil," despite being a relatively prominent conservative talking point. As a fungible commodity, oil is sold on the global market at prices determined internationally. Oil extracted from the Gulf of Mexico by a multinational corporation is just as likely to end up in a motorbike in Wuhan or Shenzhen as an SUV in Des Moines or Sacramento.
At best, both of these presuppositions are matters of opinion. At worst, they project conservative frames as fact, immediately prior to asking a highly charged and overtly political question. Either way, they don’t add anything meaningful to our understanding of public opinion on the issue.
Using liberal/environmental frames as the presuppositions, the question could have been worded differently: "To prevent catastrophic environmental disasters like the one currently taking place in the Gulf of Mexico, do you support or oppose – drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas off shore?"
Is there any doubt that such wording would have produced different results?
If the goal of the question is to determine the level of support for offshore drilling, why not ask that directly? Associating the practice of offshore drilling with two presumably positive outcomes is likely to prime participants for pro-drilling responses.
I’ve emailed my complaints and questions here to the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. I’ll update here with their response, once they’ve provided it.






15 Comments




I took a graduate course in public opinion polling while an undergrad. One thing that was made clear was your point that the pollster can elicit the desired response by wording the question in a biased manner. An interesting concept that was presented is that the responses could be so easily gamed because of approval-seeking behavior on the part of most respondents. The idea is that they were seeking the approval of the pollster.
I look forward to your follow-up.
Thanks, nice work here.
You know Josh, I wrote to the head of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute a couple of years ago about how they were phrasing questions and he wrote back to me -IOW- “Well, how would such questions be differently phrased” (after I pointed out to him the biases associated with the wording) and I wrote him back how the questions could be differently phrased.
He never answered back; I’m of the deep suspicion that the pollsters know exactly what they are doing when they create the questions and want a particular result from their polling.
If you still have it, please forward the email conversation to me at josh.nelson.dc AT gmail DOT com.
Thanks
What a crock. They might as well have asked “would you like to continue to drive your car.”
How come no polls never seem to lean Left with their questions? The system seems fixed.
A leading question is a question that contains a false presupposition.
not really – just needs to suggest a correct answer.
/nitpick
I’m shocked!!!
Public financing of Federal elections and banning all political polls would be a good start.
Great Question!
The Corporations and the phony congress people that now run DC, sold out the American People.
OBAMA and his NOAA scientist are now denying Oil Plumes.
I had trouble reading the stats. I think you need to change your typewriter ribbon.
Opps, I think I just dated myself.
Michael Whitney is upstairs!
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Wish I did because then you wouldn’t just have to take my word for it; when I moved from windows to ubuntu, I cleaned ‘house’ and wasn’t thinking about it being of any use.
There are some ‘fights’ I just give up on as I know the outcome hasn’t a snowballs chance of coming close to what I would wish. Or just doesn’t/didn’t seem that important given the really important things, like trying to get people to remember “Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear”
It’s not really a poll question it’s message testing, you’re right.
“Does the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico make you less likely to support drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas off shore, or not?”
There are so many issues with this question that it’s ridiculous. For one thing it’s framed to ask a unidirectional response…but then it ends in the phrase “or not?”. Huh? Why is that there?
Then there is the class of those polled that opposed ANY drilling in protected areas, under any circumstances. Do these respondants answer “NO” to the above question inasmuch as the Gulf spill didn’t make them LESS LIKELY? They’d already made up their minds. So they should respond “NO”. But that would class them with those who were also unchanged in supporting drilling and haven’t been swayed at all by the spill.
So you end up with both hardened environmentalists and “Drill Baby Drill” supporters saying “NO”. Does this make sense at all?