In early August, as the health care debate began to heat up, I took an interest in the numerous Facebook groups on the topic that sprang up. I’d guess that about 75% were specifically in favor of the public option or single-payer, maybe 15% supported reform in general, and only 10% could be considered anti-reform.

Surprisingly, it was an anti-reform group (the now defunct "Keep the Government’s Hands Off My Health Care") that drew far and away the most members – over 160,000, while the largest pro-reform group barely topped 10,000. Given the fact that those who use social media are more likely to be liberal than conservative, these numbers are startling.

My initial thought was that conservatives are just better at organizing. They were able to get together and all join one large group, while the liberals spread themselves thin over dozens of groups. So I added together all of the pro-reform groups I could find, and they still fell short of half the membership of the anti-reform group.

Since every credible poll has been consistently showing a majority of Americans supporting the public option,  there is clearly another reason that the conservatives so convincingly won the Facebook battle, other than organizing skill and other than representing the majority viewpoint. And that reason is timing.

Examining the groups more closely, I discovered that "Keep The Government’s Hands Off My Healthcare" was founded in March of 2009, nearly six months before the health care debate began to draw the media spotlight.  All of the pro-reform groups wer formed in late July or August.  This gave the conservatives an extra five months to grow their membership.

Internet groups, lists, and petitions move from user to user in organic and unpredictable patterns. Whereas a mass media message from TV and radio reaches millions simultaneously and has a shelf life days or even hours, a social media meme can worm its way around the Internet for months and sometimes years. For example, I started a Facebook group about a year ago which I haven’t updated since February, and it still picks up the occasional random member.

In short, if we want to make an impact on social media, we have to get ahead of the game. Large groups don’t generally happen overnight. We need to start organizing and getting the message out months before the issue takes the national stage. This should be a huge area of advantage for the liberal/progressive side.

Some issues coming up in the next 6-12 months include climate change, energy, net neutrality, second stimulus, economic reform, and FISA. Please add your additions to the list in the comments. Here are two Facebook groups I’ve just created to get the jump on two of these issues. Please click through and join, and tell your friends. And while you’re at it, start you own group on an upcoming topic. If we get enough people organized before the fact, the potential to make our voices heard will be greatly enhanced.

1,000,000 Strong for Net Neutrality

Mr. Obama, Please Take A Tough Stand on Global Warming