
This cutaway diagram shows the central reactor vessel and thick concrete containment in a typical boiling water reactor of the same era as Fukushima Daiichi 1 (image: www.world-nuclear-news.org)
Update: Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Yukio Edano, is holding a news conference, just started. (10:15pm ET).
Yesterday the spent fuel rod pool at Fukushima Daiichi reactor 4 caught fire. About that time instruments at the plant showed an exponential increase in radiation levels. After the fire was quenched, radiation levels fell. In the hour before I sat down to write this, there was an explosion at the same spent fuel rod pool. As I write, another fire is burning there. NHK reports the radiation level – 300 to 400 milliSieverts – is so high that firefighters cannot approach the area.
NHK reports that by Monday March 14 the temperature in the spent fuel rod pool was 84 degrees C: nearly double the usual temperature. NHK reports that there aren’t temperature readings for today: technical failure. We do know the pool temperature increased by roughly twenty degrees C per day after loss of power on Friday. And we know that water boils at 100 degrees C.
The spent fuel rod pool at reactor 4 is one of seven pools for spent fuel rods at Fukushima Daichii. These pools are designed to store the intensively radioactive fuel rods that were already used in nuclear reactors. These “used” fuel rods still contain uranium (or in the case of fuel rods from reactor 3, they contain both uranium and plutonium from the MOX fuel used in that reactor). In addition to the uranium and plutonium, the rods also contain other radioactive elements. These radioactive elements are created in the rods by the intense radiation around the rods when they are in the reactor core (before they are moved to the spent fuel pools).
Six of the spent fuel rod pools are (or were) located at the top of six reactor buildings. One “common pool” is at ground level in a separate building. Each “reactor top” pool holds up to 3450 fuel rod assemblies. The common pool holds up to 6291 fuel rod assemblies. [The common pool has windows on one wall which were almost certainly destroyed by the tsunami.] Each assembly holds sixty-three fuel rods. This means the Fukushima Daiichi plant may contain over 600,000 spent fuel rods. The fuel rods once stored atop reactor 3 may no longer be there: one of the several explosions at the Fukushima reactors may have damaged that pool.
Now that we have partial meltdown in the reactor vessels – the part of the reactor where nuclear reactions are supposed to happen – in at least three of the Daiichi palnt’s six reactors, why bother with swimming pools for fuel rods? Simple. Even after they are no longer usable to drive nuclear fission in the reactor vessels, the “spent” fuel rods are still highly radioactive. Part of that radioactive energy is emitted as heat. That’s no surprise: heat from radioactivity is the how the reactor core vessels generate the heat that drives the nuclear plant’s turbines to generate electricity. The fuel rods don’t know whether they are in the core or in the pools: they keep emitting heat and radioactivity until the radioactive material decays into non-radioactive elements. That process can take years, which is why spent fuel rods are still dangerous years after they leave the reactor core.
How can we prevent the spent fuel rods from bursting into flame once they’re out of the reactor core? The Fukushima plant – like many other reactors – keeps the rods in water, which absorbs the heat energy. But the pools – like the water in a teakettle – will boil away unless new water is added. After the Fukushima plant lost power in Friday’s 9.0 earthquake and got hit by the tsunami, the plant was no longer able to keep the pools topped up.
How long does it take the water in spent fuel rod pools to boil down to dangerously low levels? Yesterday FDL reader MtnWoman – who worked at TMI for twelve years – told us about the 2000 Nuclear Regulatory Commission study that looked at this very question. For boiling water reactors (BWR) such as the Fukushima reactors, the time required for spent fuel rod pool water levels to drop to dangerouslyy low levels is about 140 hours. The NRC study only looked at rods that had been out of reactors for six months or more: I don’t have data about how long the rods at the seven Fukushima pools have been out of reactors. Fortunately for the NRC, they weren’t studying fuel rod poos on the upper floors of reactor buildings housing reactor core vessels that had lost adequate cooling and were in partial meltdown. This may explain why the spent fuel rod pool at reactor 4 ignited on Monday, roughly 100 hours after the quake and power loss, but before the 140 hours the NRC calculated.
Why did the spent fuel rod pool at reactor 4 catch fire again today? Yesterday the Institute for Energy and Enviromental Research‘s Arjun Makhijani wrote a very detailed report that answers this question. In his report he quoted extensively from the 2006 study perfomed by the National Research Council of the National Academies. Their report tells us:
“The ability to remove decay heat from the spent fuel also would be reduced as the water level drops, especially when it drops below the tops of the fuel assemblies. This would cause temperatures in the fuel assemblies to rise, accelerating the oxidation of the zirconium alloy (zircaloy) cladding that encases the uranium oxide pellets. This oxidation reaction can occur in the presence of both air and steam and is strongly exothermic—that is, the reaction releases large quantities of heat, which can further raise cladding temperatures. The steam reaction also generates large quantities of hydrogen….
These oxidation reactions [with a loss of coolant] can become locally self-sustaining … at high temperatures (i.e., about a factor of 10 higher than the boiling point of water) if a supply of oxygen and/or steam is available to sustain the reactions…. The result could be a runaway oxidation reaction — referred to in this report as a zirconium cladding fire — that proceeds as a burn front (e.g., as seen in a forest fire or a fireworks sparkler) along the axis of the fuel rod toward the source of oxidant (i.e., air or steam)….
As fuel rod temperatures increase, the gas pressure inside the fuel rod increases and eventually can cause the cladding to balloon out and rupture. At higher temperatures (around 1800°C [approximately 3300°F]), zirconium cladding reacts with the uranium oxide fuel to form a complex molten phase containing zirconium-uranium oxide.
Beginning with the cladding rupture, these events would result in the release of radioactive fission gases and some of the fuel’s radioactive material in the form of aerosols into the building that houses the spent fuel pool and possibly into the environment. If the heat from one burning assembly is not dissipated, the fire could spread to other spent fuel assemblies in the pool, producing a propagating zirconium cladding fire.
The high-temperature reaction of zirconium and steam has been described quantitatively since at least the early 1960s….”
Translation for laypeople: Without enough water to cover the, the fuel rods will keep on igniting, just like trick birthday candles keep re-igniting after we blow them out. Just like trick birthday candles, the only way to put out the fuel rods is to put them under water. That’s why even after Monday’s reactor 4 spent fuel rod fire was quenched, the spent fuel rod pool caught fire again this afternoon.
Unlike trick birthday candles, the spent fuel rods burn hot (3300 degrees F) enough so that the radioactive material in the rods is aerosolized: carried into the atmosphere in clouds of hot smoke. And unlike our trick birthday candles, the spent fuel rods in reactor building 4 are four stories off the ground – just like the other five reactor spent fuel pools at Fukushima. And unlike our trick birthday candles, right now the radioactivity around the spent fuel rods is so high that no one can approach them to put out the fire.
I’m a slow typist: by the time I completed this the fire burning at reactor 4′s spent fuel rod pool had gone out – apparently spontaneously. Fortunately, we’re not yet at the 140 hour mark by which the NRC calculated spent fuel rods in ideal conditions would be at risk of combustion. That’s a good thing, because there’s one other big difference between trick birthday candles and spent fuel rods. Trick birthday candles merely drip more wax on the cake. Uncontrolled spent fuel rod fires could pour enough radioactive waste into the atmosphere to cause what a nuclear engineer (at a Vermont plant identical to Fukushima reactors) calls “Chernobyl on steroids”.
Let’s hope the spent fuel rods at Fukushima are put back under water before we have the opportunity to test her hypothesis.



212 Comments

An extremely chilling and most sobering set of facts that you have graciously provided Kirk James M.D. Thank you for this post.
I sincerely hope that the best folks and minds can come together and layout some type of plan for the worst case prognosis concerning these events.
The “Chernobyl on steroids” warning sounds like a somewhat veiled:
“This is the end game scenario”…
I hope I am wrong about that observation for the sake of Japan and the rest of the world…
Yes, your analysis is absolutely correct and I cannot help but wonder what happened to the “spent” fuel rods in 1, 2, and 3 and when the ones in 5 and 6 will ignite.
NHK is now reporting “smoke seems to be billowing into the sky from the plant” “what appears to be white smoke billowing from near the number four reactor”
Thank you, Dr Murphy.
My thoughts are with the people of Japan but I’m concerned that Obama is still saying that nuclear power is a good thing. We need to think about this country as well.
Thanks for the report Kirk…
This is definitely FUBAR and the outcome is nothing short of disaster… Who knows when this immediate emergency will end… the effects will go on for years and perhaps decades.
I fear part of Japan is gone and probably tens of thousands have lost their lives from the quake and the tsunami and not the same will succumb to radiation poisoning.
There are lots of lessons here, but those who need to learn them don’t seem to be.
thank you, Dr. Murphy
Anderson Cooper just heard that everyone has left the Nuclear Plant
this is not good, says the MIT professor John Walsh
As I wrote to a friend early this morning:
I’m not a big fan of using intrinsically toxic unstable heavy elements to boil water for turbine steam to produce general electricity. The only net upside of nuke is the absence of greenhouse gases at the point of power production. For that you trade all the other externalities (e.g., the destructive pit mining, the long-term waste) including the requisite Nuclear Security State.
Neither do I buy the False Dilemma of “either nuke or coal.” See one of my old blog posts: http://bgladd.blogspot.com/2008/04/00143.html
also, from a prior blog comment…
In the spring of 1986 I was managing a REMP (Radiological Environmental Monitoring Program) database and reporting system I’d developed for the environmental radiation lab in Oak Ridge where I worked. One of our clients was Perry Nuclear of Ohio (they intended to build a nuke plant there). The REMP stuff comprised an ongoing environmental baseline study via which to establish natural radionuclide levels across the breadth of matrices within a 5 mile radius of the proposed plant site — soils, vegetation, water, milk from local cows, all manner of biota, and the air.
The air filter analyses always came back “below LLD” (Lower Limit of Determination, i.e., in this case “<0.04 pCi/cu.m." I had a macro code snippet that simply populated that field with that update ongoing.
One week after Chernobyl we had elevated positive lab readings across all air filter locations. I-131. Given its 8.05 day half-life, it descended back down to below LLD after about 5 weeks.
Nonetheless, it was a bit creepy.
Other, heavier radionuclides like Cs-137 were blown all over the arctic regions. Scientists are probably STILL studying biota uptake and rad migration on a lot of this stuff.
Remember "too cheap to meter"? Right.
Pretty unnerving stuff going on in Japan right now, in addition to the unreal earthquake & tsunami tragedy.
I don’t think many people on the planet earth know how serious this is.
the PM of Japan is pissed, TEPCO is a very bad company
this is why GOVT. can’t be run and manage by Corporations
We all know how OBAMA sit by and watch BP destroy the Gulf of Mexico.
Operations *suspended* ?!? W.T.F?!
Presumably, there is nothing left that can be done? This is very, very dire.
x2
my words exactly
WTF?
all workers have left
6 Nuclear reactors out of control
wind blowing directly toward USA west coast
Tokyo has 35 million people
come saturday morning the wind will be blowing toward Tokyo again
this is insane! to put it mildly
Dr. Murphy was right
we all may get to witness Chernobyl on Steroids
Below is WTF
link
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102×4772659
“FUKUSHIMA, Japan – Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said work on dousing reactors with water was disrupted by the need to withdraw.
Earlier officials said 70 percent of fuel rods at one of the six reactors at the plant were significantly damaged in the aftermath of Friday’s calamitous earthquake and tsunami.
News reports said 33 percent of fuel rods were also damaged at another reactor. Officials said they would use helicopters and fire trucks to spray water in a desperate effort to prevent further radiation leaks and to cool down the reactors.
Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_japan_earthquake
I have a feeling that we are looking at this raised to a Level 7 crisis by tomorrow. Level 7 = Chernobyl.”
Actually it’s not insane at all. Haven’t you felt for years that something like this was going to happen? Sometimes we need to stop progress because it goes beyond good sense but we never seem to recognize it. The results of this tragedy will go on for years and the horror will continue. The Japanese will pay the heaviest price but it will reach around the globe one way or another.
Cooper sez there’s a growing credibility gap. How many days did it take for him to catch onto the obvious.
Credibility gap. Jeeze. Bright bulb, that Anderson.
AS I said in comment one before this news came about:
“This is the end game scenario”…
Frightening and sad…my heart goes out to those poor souls in Japan and my anger is choking over how inept G.E. and TEPCO corps are…speechless!
You are correct
the BP disaster clearly told all of us, progress is not always good.
putting holes in the earth a mile below the ocean is not a good idea, especially when it leaks poison and you can’t stop it for days.
Did we misunderstand this? The workers have left? If they can’t do the job, aren’t there other people, other equipment that can be brought in? Have all other countries refused to help?
I mean, as bad, horrific as it was, the Russians didn’t walk away from Chernobyl. No matter what terrible inconceivable price had to be paid.
I saw the clip from Edano but it must be a mis-translation.
This could be a calculated plan to withdraw now and let the strongest blasts occur while there is a forecast of steady wind blowing to the east for the next three days. Although, long-term picture still looks mind-boggling.
Beware the Ides of March.
NYT confirms:
“Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Yukio Edano, is holding a news conference that is being broadcast live on Japanese television. Mr. Edano said radiation readings started rising rapidly Wednesday morning outside the front gate of the Fukushima Daiichi plant. “All the workers there have suspended their operations. We have urged them to evacuate, and they have,” he said, according to a translation by NHK television.”
CBC just confirmed.
I agree with you, but it looks like we got 6 Nuclear Reactors no longer under the control of anyone.
Edano said one thing about radiation at the gate, then corrected it during questioning. He seemed to say it was 800mSv, then corrected it to μSv. It was very unclear. Does anybody know the figure?
I fear that it is indeed a fact.
Many spoke persons as well as Jim Walsh on CNN are also asking: “Where in the hell are the INRC in all of this?”… Crickets!!
(INRC-International Nuclear Regulatory Commisiion)
There was an odd report that the government approved higher radiation limits for workers that are still below many other nations.
If that is true it is a bit encouraging, but I doubt it. If the exposure levels were not very high why don’t they have hundreds of people there or nearby staged and ready to help get water on these things
What is need now is water. Water to keep smoke and steam down to nothing. Without smoke or steam the contamination doesn’t go airborne.
apparently GOVTs. know the truth.
all international citizens are leaving Japan
US soldiers helping with rescue, tested positive for radiation
The Obama administration on Tuesday insisted that nuclear power plants in the United States are safe even as they kept an eye on the unfolding nuclear crisis in Japan.
Yeah, and all those folks who stayed to help battle Chernobyl died agonizing deaths, particularly the chopper pilots and crews who ferried in the airborne cement for the concrete coffin. They didn’t have much choice: fly or get shot. Maybe the techs in Japan said, “Hey, enough is enough, nothing we can do now, sayonara.”
Nice summary. Thank you. A few additional points.
Each zirconium alloy rod is a hollow tube. It contains pellets or radioactive fuel, a scaled up version of an old tube of BB’s.
Metal can burn, that is combust or oxidize rapidly. It just takes higher temperatures than for paper or wood. If you recall from the Falklands war, for example, the aluminum alloy of ship superstructures struck by Exocet missiles caught fire because of the high temperatures caused by explosions. That is, the metal itself was aflame, not just melting like butter.
The usual statistics about the rate of water loss in the “spent” fuel rod pools assume standard operating temperatures and pressures. No doubt, conditions inside these reactor buildings are not standard, so pool water should be evaporating faster.
Fire in fuel rods will release radioactive elements. That might be contained inside intact reactor buildings for a time, but workers will have to enter those buildings to perform emergency tasks and any repairs or permanent containment solutions. The radiation from those fires will eventually escape.
OK, I just watched some more and it seems the highest gate reading was 6mSv and now 2mSv.
Why is brave Anderson Cooper way the fuck out in fucking Akita for fuck’s sake? Map check.
From everything I’ve ever read about Chernobyl one thing that remained with me is this: you cannot extinguish nuclear fire with water. Can’t be done. The water burns off and becomes steam. At Chernobyl they dropped sand on the exposed reactor core and surrounding burning graphite in order to stop the emission of radioactive gases into the atmosphere.
For the past two or three days I’ve heard people praising the Japanese for doing all the right things, yet the reactors are still smoldering and now everyone is being evacuated, way later than that should have happened and at the expense of hundreds more lives. The way this has been handled isn’t something we should be admiring and studying. People were given a false sense of security while a chain reaction continued to go on at the reactor. There was never any way that they were going to get enough water into those reactors to keep the rods within bounds once the second explosion occurred. A general evacuation should have been initiated then but to prevent panic, ridiculously inadequate “containment” zones were established giving people a false sense of security.
Hmmm. How long might it take before blasts to occur? Fuck. The situation could not be worse, then.
And Clinton’s FEMA director, James Lee Witt, said the Japanese had done a “good job” of emergency response. Keeping the public in the dark?
Obama is approaching Sarah Palin Stupid Levels
What politician with a little common sense would make comments about Nuclear Power being safe, when you may have 6 nuclear reactors melting down
statements like this will hopefully lead to OBAMA being primaried.
one must ask this simple question is Obama really better than Bush?
Obama is already on par with Bush stupid, and he is moving toward Palin stupid
where is Anderson? he is not in Tokyo?
how far away is Akita
Thank TEPCO for pretty much all of that…
this whole scene is eerily close to the colossal screwup that we let BP get away with while Obama played his fiddle!
From AP, in article noting the withdrawal of all workers from the plant.
“The level of radiation at the plant surged to 1,000 millisieverts early Wednesday before coming down to 800-600 millisieverts. Still, that was far more than the average.”
The opposite coast. Check Google Maps.
Google Earth places it way northwest of Sendai, and consequently way way northwest of Tokyo.
Except he’s one-upping us this time around. He at least waited a year for the hoopla over the deep-water incident to die down before allowing more drilling. Now, he’s already got nuke toady in chief Dr. Chu pushing for more give-aways to the nuclear industry. Absolutely without shame, this President.
Well if Obama said it, you know it’s a lie. We need to shut them down now. There’s got to be a safer way. Nuclear ships don’t go critical.
what are you drinking? owe ya one
I fear this site and 10 miles around will be a no trespass zone in the future with periodic radioactive releases. Thank you GE.
MSNBC now saying workers temporarily suspended activities at the plant.
Thanks for the technical details. The knowledge that the pools had inspection windows on one side is helpful to understanding how the spent fuel might lose cooling more rapidly. A likely point for one of the items of the stress testing of similar reactors that will be going on in Europe and the US over the next few months.
One of the aspects that has not be remarked upon is the fact that the siting of the plant on the coast allowed the rapid establishment of using sea water for cooling. Was the ability to transport sea water part of the original design for primary cooling, for example? Or was this an improvised workaround that the engineers trying to deal with the reactor created? Both Onofre and Diablo Canyon in California are similarly sited. Was this a standard design practice in the 1970s for placing nuclear power plants in known earthquake zones. BTW, AJE had an interview about Onofre. Geologists estimate that the worst possible earthquake at the site is less than 6.5; the plant design is to absorb a magnitude 7.0 with a 7 meter (22 ft or so) tsunami. Those geological estimates were made certainly over a quarter century ago. Should those estimates be revisited for existing plants in earthquake-prone zones.
BTW, old functioning reactors never die, they just get moved. The remaining workable reactor from TMI reportedly has been purchased by Progress Energy for installation around 20 miles from where I live.
You honor me, LL. Not worthy.
you know this is bad, because no nation is sending their Nuclear Power Experts to Japan to help the 50 workers
this says it all, this is a dead man job, and no one is stepping up for this duty.
Obama doesn’t have time to deal with this, because he has more important things he doesn’t have time to deal with, like Libya and Bahrain, which he doesn’t have time to deal with, because of Wisconsin, which he doesn’t have time to deal with, because of Bradley Manning who he doesn’t have time to deal with..because..
Do you suppose the plan is to drop something drastic on the plant? And that’s part of the reason for withdrawing the only people who could do anything to stop the fires? Newsonjapan.com describes a plan to spray the plant with water and boric acid as a last gasp measure.
RADIATION? Simple arithmetic may not apply here, but simple arithmetic suggests that, as of today, per hour radiation levels at the Fukushima plant were 35,000 TIMES HIGHER than what it takes to give you cancer. Can that be right?
Here’s what Reuters reported today http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/9016034/japan-radioactivity-directly-into-atmosphere-iaea/:
“Japan has told the U.N. nuclear watchdog a spent fuel storage pond was on fire at a reactor damaged by the earthquake and radioactivity was being released “directly” into the atmosphere, the Vienna-based agency said on Tuesday.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), citing information it had received from Japanese authorities at 3:50 a.m. British time, said dose rates of up to 400 MILLISIEVERT PER HOUR have been reported at the Fukushima power plant site.
Exposure to a level over 100 MILLISIEVERTS A YEAR CAN LEAD TO CANCER, according to the World Nuclear Association. The IAEA uses the unit to measure doses of radiation received by people.”
Anderson knows you can’t trust the authorities to tell the truth. It’s not safe to get too close. The truth about Three Mile Island took years to be released.
Candidly…it seems as though they are running out of plans…frightening prospect!
O has an urgent beer summit he must attend.
How is what is happening with the pools any different from the reactors (other then they are not as “hot” radioactively)?
Wouldn’t it be proper to say the fuel rods in the pools are melting down too?
BradBlog tweets:
TheBradBlog RT @HirokoTabuchi: Contrary to some reports, a core group of workers remain at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. It is not abandoned.
16 minutes ago via TweetDeck
My guess is they left because there was no point in staying (in other words I’m sure they would have sacrificed themselves to save their fellow citizens if they could.)
I’m completely aware of what happened to the pilots and crews. And you’re wrong, they volunteered. The moderator at NPR was just recounting an interview with one of the pilots an hour ago.
There are no other options. Six reactors at various points of catastrophic failure can’t be left alone to their destinies. The risk to millions of people in the area is simply too great.
The international community needs to fire TEPCO immediately and, possibly, the government of Japan and put together a coordinated multi-national response to this debacle. This needs to be done whether TEPCO sends the 50 workers back to the site or not.
It’s because Obama is corporate-owned – not stupid – like he’s just doing what he did with BP.
No, they burn and aerosolize, read the post that starts the thread!
Msnbc reporting the 50 workers have been sent back in after radiation levels dropped.
Navy has more regulations that pages to write them on about their nuclear reactors. According to a physics teacher who worked on missile subs, most USN work on our nuclear reactors is massively inefficient, and done purposefully so. The result is that we’ve only had a few irradiated water spills out of subs (during tender transfer), which are bad, but not anywhere near this level of disaster.
I told my husband last night that that would be the last time we’d see Anderson in the tsunami zone. Too dang close to ground zero.
mattcarmody@7:09pm
echoes mine and my wife concern over the last 24 hrs ( plus we have a young nephew and wife worry-dod teachers).
we do not understand why the japanese gov’t has not ecacuated people within, say, 100 mis. of the reactors.
of course the country is stricken, but NOT evacuating could mean hundreds to hundreds of thousands more morbidity or mortality.
with uncontrolled radiation releases from reactors or old-rod storage pools,
substantial mortality over time seems likely.
if you drew a 100 mi radius circle around the damaged reactors, most of the land and people within would NOT have been affected directly by the tsunami.
they might, however, be sickened by air-bourne radiation, so why not advise them, and help them, to evacuate to shelter further south or west of the reactors, even if tsunami survivors chose not to leave?
it is easy to criticize a gov’t from a distance, as i am doing, but i just don’t understand the gov’ts deference to TEPCO and the gov’ts lack of agressive public health measures – and “aggressive” public health measures are not limited to telling people to “stay indoors” and to “seal up their houses”.
in short, gov’t of japan response to this extraordinary emergency seems cautious and timid when decisiveness to save lives would be the proper approach to this natural cum manmade disaster.
and where is the p. m.?a
Since Monday afternoon it has seemed there is no plan. 6 giant structures, 3 with massive damage, no electricity and besides with so much damage the 3 no longer have electrical systems which can be turned on, little water, contamination everywhere, and 50 people. Who if not being rotated in and out are exhausted, over exposed and their homes and families might have disappeared.
I was waiting to today for reinforcements, nothing.
What can 50 people do against that. I worked on nuclear shutdown maintenance and repair and it takes 50 people to change a light-bulb.
the guy on CNN said it best, no one knows how to stop 6 nuclear power plants from melting down.
Dr. Murphy point about explosions happening repeatedly, makes fixing this problem Mission Impossible
So called “Critical” workers remain…cannot imagine who these unfortunate but brave souls are. The world should wish them well knowing it is a ‘no good ending job’!
Perhaps, but nonetheless there are reports that the plant is no longer vacant.
the Japanese Govt. must be following the Obama play book about how to deal with man made super disaster
I agree with you, people need to be moved from a 100 mi radius
the guy on CNN John Walsh said, no one has ever develop a way to stop 6 Nuclear Reactors from melting down.
Eblair,
See my comment above regarding extreme radiation levels of 400 millisieverts per hour, reported by Reuters and elsewhere today. BTW, where did you see/hear Edano say that the level was 800 millisieverts per hour? That is doubly astounding.
It sounds like the rad levels peaked, those 50 workers are probably dead men walking, so I’d lean towards not judging many of them for trying to stick around alive as long as possible. They might still be able to stave off some of the damage, the real blame belongs on the regulatory bodies, and what keeps sounding more and more like a corrupt company.
You wonder if there is any way to try and seal some of the spent fuel tanks, or if this would interfere with the efforts to keep cooling the still problematic reactor cores.
err, spent fuel rods, sorry I can’t seem to edit.
Graphite burns. The oxide fuel does not burn to my understanding, or if it does its weight and volume were tiny in relation to the amount of graphite there. I suspect the sheer mass of graphite at Chernobyl made it impossible to get enough water on it to douse it. It kept flashing off. Graphite is really very high grade coal. Hard to start burning hard to stop.
someone’s gotta go down with the ship, sadly.
I agree with your assessment, but I suppose the big question is how? …most services including transportation is severely limited, and most of those who need to be moved and evacuated are cold, tired, hungry, etc. Not an easy task to say the least…
but agreed the government seems to be dragging to a standstill from the weight of all this going on simultaneously…
as for TEPCO…evil and unforgivable…reminds me of BP at it’s worse…and we got some of our own TEPCO’s right here in the USA1
Roof of reactor #4 cracked, per MSNBC.
I agree with your comments about the Japanese government’s response to this.
It’s past time already for the world community to fire TEPCO and even the government of Japan, if necessary, from the job of resolving this crisis.
Six nuclear reactors in various stages of catastrophic failure represent too great an international threat to be left in the hands of people who have shown themselves utterly inadequate to the challenge.
We need an immediate multi-national response.
They need to stay submerged because they burn when exposed to air. Every time the water goes down, the rods will start burning again. Why there’s been no airlift of water tanks and generators and pumps escapes me totally.
Maybe we need a Spock.
Reactor vessel or containment building, the outer structure meant to fall away in an explosion, dispersing energy rather than allowing it to build up?
I agree completely, this is the time where you sit down with everyone and lay the options out, and do something immediately. Screw sovereignty, we have to figure a way to stop this.
I think that happened in yesterday’s explosion. They thought for a while they could exploit the roof opening to drop in water from helicopters but gave up that idea fairly quickly.
PM of Japan was apparently cussing at TEPCO today
the word is, a reactor caught on fire friday and TEPCO did not report it in due time.
you do bring up a great point, Tokyo is out of fuel, and running low on food. moving people is not that easy
this event get worse by the minute
Assuming there are the requisite kinds of aircraft and crews, it’s very dangerous to aircrews. It’s also not clear how water would descend onto the correct parts of the structure as it cascades through others. It would need to be more carefully targeted than dropping it onto a forest fire.
Right, sorry didn’t mean to imply they wouldn’t burn unless submerged, but right now it seems there is no way to submerge them effectively without “capping” them somewhat. Granted, having exploding/steam releasing reactors underneath you makes this a bit problematic. (understatement)
Spock would be rather useful right now, anyone else want to modulate the deflector shield to contain the radiation?
In all seriousness though, is there any way to attempt to stop this?
Yeah, not sure if that was old news or not. Was hoping someone would know for sure.
it sounds like that would expose the pilots to Chernobyl level radiation, and might not even do that much.
…because he has to raise $750 million dollars from big business and the wealthy for his reelection.
Workers are picking up their yearly annual exposure in about 7 minutes.
Protective suits don’t protect from gamma rays; they keep off contaminated soot, etc. The real trouble comes from direct gamma rays.
– NPR, 12.04 am NYC time, As It Happens (Canadian perspective, usually more frank and less, “he said, she said” than their American counterparts.)
Dr. Murphy,
Based on your post, and your references to the NRC studies, I think you will find of interest the 2-page fact sheet on the spent fuel pool issues that has been produced by the NEI: Used Nuclear Fuel Storage at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (this includes an explanation of what might happen under various scenarios). Link: http://resources.nei.org/documents/japan/Used_Fuel_Pools_Key_Facts.pdf. I can’t vouch for its accuracy, but it contains some basic engineering data that is very relevant to your post.
I personally also found informative and helpful today’s update (and previous days’ updates) at bravenewclimate, a blog hosted by Professor Barry Brook of the University of Adelaide in Australia (http://bravenewclimate.com/about/). Link of today’s update: http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/16/fukushima-16-march-summary/. Fair warning: Dr. Brook is a climate scientist who happens to believe (and advocate) that nuclear energy is the solution to global warming. My own belief is that utility-scale solar and wind are cost-competitive at scale and are a more achievable solution, particularly for the US, but only add this to deflect the expected accusations that I’m a shill for the nuclear industry. I’m not, and am a founding member here at FDL thank you very much. All this because I can’t stick around to defend this “the-sky-is-not-falling” comment.
Key quote from today’s bravenewclimate update:
“There appears to have been some exposure of this spent fuel, and radiation levels around this area remain high — making access in order to maintain water levels particularly troublesome. Note that apart from short-lived fission product gases, these radiation sources are otherwise contained within the rods and not particularised in a way that facilitates dispersion. Again, the problems encountered here can be linked to the critical lack of on-site power, with the mains grid still being out of action. As a further precaution, TEPCO is considering spraying the pool with boric acid to minimise the probability of ‘prompt criticality’ events. This is the news item we should be watching most closely today.” (posted ~2 hours ago)
respectfully
The number of workers in the hottest parts of these sites may be limited to 50. But the total number of workers required to maintain that level on site would be many hundreds, because of the rapid rotation required owing to radiation levels.
NPR expert suggests that the total pool of workers in Japan with the required expertise to do this work is about 6000. They will “burn” through them, exhaust them, expose them to max. radiation doses, etc., in a few months.
News crews, ABC and the BBC, for example, are being told to leave the region because it’s too dangerous.
From IAEA
Or is It because it’s too embarrassing?
NEWS ADVISORY: Gov’t ready to release rice stockpiles wherever needed: farm minister (13:05) – Kyodo News Ticker
South Korea plans to transfer its reserve of boron to Japan to help its neighbor stabilize quake-damaged nuclear reactors, the government said Wednesday. – Kyodo
Tweet: American military forces provided two fire trucks to Japanese authorities in Fukushima prefecture.
Why are you jumping in with this same comment in each thread then bobash? It’s as if you’re just trotting in to troll your line and waltzing back out again. Will you even wait for this emergency to end before starting your soft sell of nuclear power? No, obviously not. Myself, I think waiting for the bodies to stop piling up would be prudent, wouldn’t you?
As much as I would like to believe there will be some reasonable outcome from this, I just don’t see it. This will end up having to be entombed like Chernobyl. Is it possible to do with something this big? This close to the ocean?
Failing that I see this as a permanent radioactive “volcano” spreading contamination over one of the worlds great cities every time the wind blows from the NE.
If the actual number of workers is 50, then only a few of them at a time are able to work, making their efforts vital but minimal.
I have seen absolutely no reference made to this anyplace else. The link is from a comment thread at DailyKos. Someone seems to be telling CNBC that the storage pool at unit #2 was damaged by the original earthquake itself. From a CNBC story at http://www.cnbc.com/id/42083048:
“The threat is considered so severe that at the start of the crisis Friday, immediately after the shattering earthquake, Fukushima plant officials focused their attention on a damaged storage pool for spent nuclear fuel at the No. 2 reactor at Daiichi, said a nuclear executive who requested anonymity because his company is not involved in the emergency response at the reactors and is wary of antagonizing other companies in the industry.
“The damage prompted the plant’s management to divert much of the attention and pumping capacity to that pool, the executive added. The shutdown of the other reactors then proceeded badly, and problems began to cascade.”
Did anybody else read or hear of such damage at the time (Friday)?
I was completely serious. We may need volunteers to give themselves so that everyone else — and all non human life — can escape the long term effects of the radiation being released.
To paraphrase Hamlet, that’s the question. It could be both; neither the Japanese govt nor TEP have stellar records for being forthright on nuclear risks.
I have not heard of such. Have we heard of any problems with storage in #2? It would have already cooked off by now, since everything is failing.
People die. Economies are wrecked. BP-Gulf and Japan Nukes. Yet the beat goes on. More drilling, more nukes approve by gov’t without regard to proven history, science (what is that?) and public concern. Corporations rule: today, tomorrow and for ever. think you have a say in US representative democracy? Think again.
I did, perhaps you should go reread it your self.
from
mechanics of a meltdown explained
“As the core heats, the zirconium metal reacts with steam to become zirconium oxide. This oxidation process releases additional heat, further increasing the temperature inside the core. High temperatures cause the zirconium coating that covers the surface of the fuel rods to blister and balloon. ”
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2011/03/mechanics-of-a-meltdown-explained.html
Sound familiar?
Again the same thing is happening in the pools as in the reactor, why are they not calling it a melt down?
I don’t believe it was actively covered in the media, no.
Here’s the article from the DellNewsPage (AP) about all the workers being pulled out because of high radiation being released:
http://apnews.myway.com//article/20110316/D9M02NS80.html
It’s interesting that it’s fairly imprecise as to the question of the exact source of the high readings. That is, are they cumulative from all of the damaged plants? (#1 is said to have 70 percent of the rods damaged, and #2 is said to have about a third of it’s rods damaged) Or are the two reactors specifically mentioned, the source?
#4 was the source of the so called “burst” of radioactivity earlier, and the initial statement was that that fire is out, although later a TEPCO spokesman said that they weren’t sure of that.
And Bobash, I just went up and read your latest post. If you want to “deflect” criticism that you’re a shill for the nuclear industry, then, as long as you keep low-balling what’s going on at Fukushima, you’ve got some harrrd deflecting to do, and it gets harder with every bit of bad news that comes out of Fukushima.
Your ongoing contention that the media is fear-mongering, was questionable (to say the least) and with the cascade of events, it’s getting ridiculous. No amount of technical folderol will conceal the fact that the situation is worsening, by the hour, and anyone attempting to pimp for the opposite view IS shilling for the industry.
I think the next thing we need to watch for is the evacuation of the 140,000 people who’ve been instructed to stay indoors and to make their homes “airtight”. (Which is black-humor ridiculous, on the face of it…) and to keep an eye on the situation in Tokyo. Inevitably, there will be “higher-ups” informed of an increase in the threat of a plume reaching Tokyo with serious levels of radiation ahead of a public release of that information, but it’s impossible to cut it off there, and to hide it from the public for very long.
It would interesting to know if the Austrian embassy that has relocated to Osaka was given a tip on the deteriorating situation at Fukushima that triggered that, or if they just decided to play it extra safe.
At any rate, I think that the time for point-shaving about the seriousness of this is about over. If that wind change back toward Tokyo occurs in the next 48 hours, the authorities may have to make a decision about whether to protect the nuclear industry, or the millions of people living in greater Tokyo. I think we’re coming up on an either/or situation.
I would like to know who thought storing spent fuel assemblies in a very heavy, large, deep swimming pool 30 or 40 feet above a reactor was a good idea? I have to believe having those assemblies stored at or below ground level would make controlling water circulation and temperature in an emergency a lot easier. I know, “no one could have imagined”.
There are a lot of other ghastly things happening. A thousand bodies, torn by wave action, debris and predators, wash up on more than one beach. Fires, animal and human predators. Temperatures cold enough to snow. Restricted ability to get help and food, water, supplies, medicine and fuel in and injured out. Additional evacuees from radiation areas clogging roads. Exhausted aid workers and psychologically traumatized people. Whole areas still cut off and no assessments of damage, dead, dying and refugees still not made.
The world and Japan need more reporters and old time photographers to document this and to help keep politicians focused on how not to repeat it or to improve reactions the next time the unstoppable occurs.
Pajarito, your sense of the ongoingness of this corporate greed is accurate, but this is going to be, in fact, it already IS, worse, than the GOM disaster, and clearly, there is no end in sight.
Cadog, I was wondering the same thing. It’s like having a swimming pool (A very dangerous swimming pool) over your living room and expecting it to never leak.
Whether or not “it cooked off” already would be a matter of the exact nature of the damage and the effectiveness of the immediate response, I would think.
I guess my ultimate question would be, Is there some strategic advantage to the plant operators concealing direct structural damage due to an earthquake, as opposed to the more secondary effects of tsunami, swamped generators, etc.?
Ok, I gotta wade into this one, as it’s been reported and repeated a few times.
“Chernobyl on steroids.”
I want to know, how exactly do cooling ponds of 6 reactors, only 1 or 2 of them with live material, the others with older rods, become as bad as Chernobyl, which didn’t have containment vessels and spread thruout Europe.
Chernobyl was bigger, I believe, as a single facility?
So, again, how do the cooling ponds of Daiichi going galt with their fuel rods (used and not used) equal to the same radiation spread out over the same area as Chernobyl?
I don’t get the steroids bit . . .
Thanks. That confirms my own impression.
In miles, how from from Fukushima to Tokyo?
The great thing about As It Happens is that its reporters ask tough informed questions and follow up questions. They turn to experts and the well-informed, but rarely to industry lobbyists and trade association types, who never speak without promoting narrow, fee-paying client interests.
This is why people keep complaining about the fact it was a GE designed reactor. Keeping this sort of thing running just seems like a mistake, nothing to blame but greed and stupidity.
Now, now, I’m sure user bobash is strictly concerned about presenting a fair and balanced view of what is going on. It wouldn’t do for us to focus strictly on objective reality without a compensating dose of status quo ideology.
I’m not familiar with this Brook fellow, but if he’s another “pro-nuclear environmentalist”, I’ll just save my time.
Nuclear is not the “solution to global warming”. It’s a hopeless attempt to maintain business as usual in the face of devastating anthropogenic climate change.
About 150 statute miles.
Google it up, thousands upon thousands of Russians died providing support services to Chernobyl, including those who worked to dump the cement on it all to bury it.
The government sent in troops knowing they would all die . . . thousands upon thousands.
Can the cooling ponds of 6 reactors and the cooling pond on the ground create a Chernobyl?
I’ve not yet seen the science to support this contention.
I’m not sayin this ain’t horrid . . . but I haven’t seen the science to back up “Chernobyl On Steoids” . . . not from anyone, anywhere.
As such, it COULD be construed by some, as kinda inflamatory.
I know FDL is a stickler for details . . . I respect and depend on that.
How ugly, and why, is this?
A great thread below by SC, where a LOT of misconceptions were revealed and further explained . . . great dialogue and details.
By tomorrow they will remake the scale. “This crisis goes to 11″!
BP, thanks, I hope more folks will recall the events of Chernobyl and the huge amount of deaths incurred by their army folks along with the civilian population.
Ordered into the breach, to serve and die.
But this time, the sitch is fully evacuated.
What will be the outome?
How will it impact the planet?
I guess, to be determined . . . given Japan invoked Article 15 and likely, USA is behind suppressing info releases, too.
We’ll see . . . time reveals.
This is an admittedly really weird question, but what would happen if a lot of sand was poured over the fires to deprive them of oxygen, considering that the metal itself is reacting with water in order to split it into hydrogen and oxygen? If the sand itself melted, might that actually help to smother the fire?
The thing is, Tokyo is not a point, its a huge metropolis like LA. I was looking at a population density map, it looks like there might be a mountain ridge on the border of Fukushima prefecture, and the metro area comes up to the base of it. But I’m pretty ignorant of Japanese geography.
Earl, thanks.
For a 10 knot wind, that’s about 12-13 hours. Fortunately, with the weather technology we have today, it seems we should know ahead of time, if there will be a plume heading for Tokyo.
What the authorities decide to do with the information, is another thing.
“…it’s a huge metropolis like L.A.”
Good point, Dave. I’d imagine the population density 30 miles from the center of Tokyo, or further, in practically any landward direction, is pretty high.
FUK-U-SHIMA.
Without water, uncontrolled heating? Burning through the pool. Vaporization anyway?
The focus should be on the government incompetence and lying; not the engineering.
We have the engineering to fix this, just the wrong government.
UPDATE on radiation — here’s a link via Yahoo News: http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/9017940/japan-races-to-contain-nuclear-disaster/
“The level of radiation at the plant surged to 1,000 millisieverts early Wednesday before coming down to 800-600 millisieverts. Still, that was far more than the average.*
“So the workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now,” Edano said. “Because of the radiation risk, we are on standby.”
Experts say exposure of around 1,000 millisieverts is enough to cause radiation sickness.”
* “In the United States, a person typically gets a radiation dose of 6.2 millisieverts per year” (CNN). As was widely reported yesterday, the World Nuclear Association cites 100 millisieverts per year as a level that causes cancer. So, it’s a rather colossal understatement for a news report to say that 800-600 millisieverts per HOUR is “far more than average”.
THAT I agree fully with you and Dr. Kirk.
It’s over, only the end result awaits.
How bad will it be?
“Steroids?”
Where’s the science.
Boron and sand were poured over the burning core of Chernobyl,(a graphite fire) followed by concrete. Difficult as the operation was, the fire and radioactive material was at ground level rather than forty feet in the air.
(note to tanbark) this illustrates the reason it is always wise to check structural integrity before placing a waterbed in a second story bedroom
The roads are either battered with the quake or the flooding. No one can travel far.
The govt. has military in place, likely to control and patrol what roads are passable for rescue needs.
To me, it looks like they are sacrificing populations to radiation in order to conduct failed and failing quake/tsunami efforts.
I’d bet the death toll exceeds 200,000 before this is all over . .
Ed, I gotta believe that large numbers of survivors are either dying or dead at this point. It’s winter. No food, no shelter for many, and in shelters, little power if any.
Not to mention, no medical supplies, no water. The weak and wounded are dead or dying . . . others at risk. It’s now 5 days.
It’s 32F or less . . . . at night. Hypothermia at the minimum kills.
EOH, yeah, I recall the exact same thing at Chernobyl . . . gamma rays . . . thanks for the memory jolt.
NEWS ADVISORY: Winds barring SDF copters from dousing Fukushima reactor: minister
Kyodo News just a few minutes ago
To put this in perspective, this would be like having a multi-unit meltdown in Santa Barbara, with a fuel fire and plumes of radioactive smoke…and downtown LA is ~150mi away. Metro LA (the valley) is ~75 or so. Takes two hours to drive there in easy traffic. Takes two to four hours for Pacific storms to arrive in LA after hitting SB. So there ya’ go. It ain’t that far away.
Your assessment seems right to me. It looks like TEPCO is just phoning it in at this point.
Not, of course, the people still there battling this disaster and apparently still losing ground, but the company behind it all. Is it actually OK with the Japanese and Korean governments that the potential health of millions of their citizens is in the hands of this corporation?
“I think the next thing we need to watch for is the evacuation of the 140,000 people who’ve been instructed to stay indoors and to make their homes “airtight”. (Which is black-humor ridiculous, on the face of it…) “>
Tan I think there’s only one thing ya might have overlooked.
Japan is sacrificing them 140,000. N besides, the means to MOVE them rapidly or at all is not available . . . roads and trains are kaput.
SO, they and their regions are a first barrier for what’s to come, in hopes that others further out can maybe escape.
At some point, given the quakes, tsunami’s n Nuke Reactors gone bad, it has to be a catastrophic population loss.
N I STILL wanna know why cooling pond losses are worse n reactor meltdowns, containment vessels and such. And how THAT adds up to “Chernobyl On Steroids”.
Chernobyl killed millions, and continues to kill today.
I guess, we’ll see . . . always good to see your fonts my continental 5 String Pal . . .
Earl, your comment there convinces me that it’s all being low balled as a global effort to minimize it.
N that’s because of elite interests in their investments, mainly in the paper money trails they have invested in.
This is epic failure of a civilization, and it’s being swept and sanitized . . . I wasn’t sure at first, either from Japan or from US sources of media . . . but at this point, with the Article 15 having been announced and disclosed, I’m pretty well convinced.
It’s cover up time for banking and financial elites. Japan’s economy is gonna tank the planet and the elites are tryin to suppress it, humans and their losses be damned.
Just MHO.
As always, thanks for your comments and thoughts, they always elevate the dialogue.
Regardless of this info, it was all going to go south anyways . . . I don’t buy that a ‘diversion of attention’ means much.
This sitch was fucked to begin with the quakes, got a millions time worse with the tsunamis, and will get worse with the nuke issues.
How worse yet, nuke wise, we don’t know.
Chernobyl bad? I’ve yet to be persuaded so,
Chernobyl was one reactor, fine radioactive particulates injected high into the atmosphere, with broad distribution.
This is three reactors, plus decades worth of spent fuel rods. The base amount of radioactive material is much greater. One order of magnitude, maybe two.
And it’s right beside one of the world’s great cities.
So we’re down to particulate formation and distribution. That’s what we’ll have to see. I don’t think there has ever been a fuel rod fire before. Nobody knows how this story ends.
There is some evidence that these articles from bravenewclimate.com and theenergycollective.com may be part of an astro-turfing campaign:
http://geniusnow.com/2011/03/15/the-strange-case-of-josef-oehmen/
The disaster is over! Nikkei up 6%. BoJ dumped almost $700 billion into the markets over the last few days and bought themselves a rally!
Champagne, hookers, and blow for everybody!
BBC reporting Fukushima workers back on site. Bless those brave people.
I *think* one reason is because any given pool holds a lot more fuel rods to potentially catch fire than would be loaded into a reactor at any given time.
The spent fuel rods are not in containment vessels either, so there would be no distinction on that point.
So, we’ve got robots that can carry a .50 caliber machine gun through a tight-quartered building and even up stairs … but *nothing* that could maybe carry a hose?
You would think we could lend them something like that. I think the problem is more getting any sort of pumping system there, not so much getting it up in the building.
NHK just had some video of Chinook helos dumping liquid onto one or more of the reactors. Probably that Boron mixture they were talking about.
Other than that, they are cycling the news that the cooling pools for the spent rods are in danger, but the water is still not gone yet. Seems to be pretty much the same reporting we’ve seen here already.
Apparently GE is sending 10 power generators over, as of Tuesday night. Cannot find MSM confirmation, but other blogs seem to agree with this. Seems a bit late to be getting them power and equipment to be able to pump more, but anything at this point is help.
NHK reports Japan SDF (military) helicopters now spraying water on fuel rod pond in reactor bldg 3.
I pray this works.
Jinx! *g*
And the woman desperately shilling for the US nuclear power industry that NPR interviewed yesterday afternoon on All Things Considered kept bizarrely and repeatedly insisting that reactor #4 was burning because “it was an oil fire”. Thanks largely to Bill Egnor, Scarecrow, et al, I knew she was completely full of (GOP talking points). Save us from the people who care so much for money that they will baldly lie in the face of burning, toxic truth.
Agreed. Apparently I’m staying up too late with someone else watching this as well! Did you get confirmation it was just water?
Also, it seems like they’ve finally decided letting the chopper pilots have it is required, hopefully they threw some shielding on them inside that chinook.
CNN is also unable to keep from saying things like “the spent fuel rods might melt down”. From what I’ve read on here it sounds like that’s not the case, they’ll burn themselves into airborne particles. *correct me if wrong please!
Just goes to show how they are bending over backwards trying to not label this the disaster that it is.
Each assembly holds sixty-three fuel rods. This means the Fukushima Daiichi plant may contain over 600,000 spent fuel rods.
We need to know how many tons? of fuel rods are there
Let’s hope the spent fuel rods at Fukushima are put back under water before we have the opportunity to test her hypothesis.
As I write, another fire is burning there. NHK reports the radiation level – 300 to 400 milliSieverts – is so high that firefighters cannot approach the area.
Uh Kirk unless the Japanese got robots who can repair the cooling system I assume connected to fiber optic cables from a safe distance away since I doubt radio waves can penetrate the nuclear plants shielding then how can the cooling system be fixed. 50 firemen can’t seem to stop the plants from catching fire.
So unless you believe in Magic or Robots fixing plumbing and the electronics in the plant to get the cooling system working I’m doubting lead suits can keep workers alive long enough to do the job.
If they can then the Japanese would already be doing it.
Even the tin foil hat crowd can’t dream worse than the situation now.:(
Oil fire at a Nuke plant thats their cover story Cripes thats sad!
If robots can fix a Nuclear plant after all the damage of 9 earthquake and a 30 foot tidal wave plus various fires and blasts then the Japanese robots can replace us in all our jobs.
I think we got a better shot with Magic.
I think another issue is would the fire be hot and big enough to cause a convecting plume that rose up high into the atmosphere (5-10000 metres) and entrained radioactive materials in it. I would assume it could, and have read several opinions that suggest this. Dispersal post release is the greatest problem of all in this disaster.
Merde. UK Guardian interview:
8.40am (5.40pm JST): Tania Branigan has been speaking again to Professor David Hinde, head of the department of nuclear physics at the Australian National University. He says that the status of the spent fuel pools at the Fukushima plant is very concerning. Water levels are reportedly dropping in unit 4, and the temperature of the pools in 5 and 6 are now rising.
“It is clearly a serious situation now because there is no containment for those spent fuel pools… My feeling is that they are probably a more serious issue now than the reactors, [where] there’s at least a degree of containment remaining.
Spent fuel rods are strongly radioactive and the water above them shields against that radiation so as long as the water level is sufficiently high – you can walk up to the edge of the pool and pour a bucket of water in. Once it is even close to the top of the rods the levels are too high to approach the pool, which is clearly what has happened in unit 4.”
It’s been suggested that the Japanese Self Defence Force could use helicopters to drop water onto the plant (see 8.06am). But even if the military is willing to risk exposing pilots to radiation, Hinde says this is far easier said than done:
“My estimates suggest they might need 50 tonnes an hour of water. You could do that easily with a large bore hosepipe but if you are doing it with helicopters it is a lot more difficult – and harder to get the water into the pool. I very much hope they rig up a temporary pipe works in 5 and 6 to pump water in remotely to avoid reaching this situation.”
He said the ideal situation would be to re-establish the cooling system, which seems to have been knocked out by the tsunami.
From what I have read, that is the fearsome outcome were we to have significant numbers of fuel rods ignite. A powerpoint presentation I saw earlier (will find linky in AM – OK, later in AM) said that in Nov 2010 the spent fuel rod storage capacity at Fukushima Daiichi was 87% full.
What’s the capacity of Fukushima’s spent fuel pools? A little over 610,000 rods. And they burn at temps in excess of 3300 degrees F.
Good night, folks.
This is what I was worried about, the containment of the pools is likely in question, but if they could get the flow up to the levels he’s suggesting here, it might not matter enough for them to reduce the radiation emissions to get closer to it. The helos are not going to cut it.
As of 5:15 EST, NHK says they tried to use one ch-47 chinook to drop “water” on the number 3 reactor, but stopped their efforts. They were reporting that a second chopper was on site to monitor radiation, it seems likely they found the levels unacceptable to attempt this method.
We need a ton of magic of that figure on the spent rods is accurate, which I’m inclined to believe it is as Doctor Kirk has had some epic insights and information thus far.
That being said, I’m not getting much sleep.
I couldn’t sleep either.
Won’t be any easier now:
URGENT: SDF choppers unable to drop water on nuke reactor due to radiation
TOKYO, March 16, Kyodo
The Self-Defense Forces will not conduct a planned operation Wednesday to drop water from helicopters on the troubled No. 3 reactor of the Fukushima nuclear power plant because of the high radiation level around the plant, Defense Ministry officials said.
The Ground Self-Defense Force helicopters were on standby to drop water on the reactor as it is feared the reactor may have released radioactive steam due to damage to its containment vessel.
==Kyodo
Won’t be any easier to let go after seeing that. Seems like the world is trying to explode right now.
Any guesses on what they try next?
Heard a lot about MOX fuel.
Could you give us some idea about the relative toxicities and concentrations necessary to be lethal of all the different elements, plutonium especially, in the reactor. Also, what would dispersal and dilution do to the different elements? If small quantities of plutonium are scattered across bits of Tokyo, how bad is this? How about food, water and so on and the risk of a chain of secondary contamination within the city. And what about human ingestion of radioactive material? How bad a problem is this likely to be in the event that…?
It widespread contamination ingestion is really the main issue. From ingestion comes higher cancer risk.
Apologies if the update linked here for March 16th by UCS has already been cited. A few highlights from this and other sources:
The event is rated as a level 6, not its original 4. Chernobyl was rated 7.
The pumps for the “spent” fuel rod pools were not designed to use backup generators or batteries. They’ve been cooking off since the power grid went down, which is still down.
The rods in reactor 4′s pool were taken out only on Dec. 10th, which means they’re relatively hot. The reactor itself is down. The fire in reactor 4 may have been from oxidation of the zirconium cladding on the fuel rods, which means they were exposed to air. So at least 30′ of water in the 45′ deep wells is gone. With a 26′ hole in the outer containment building, gases emitted inside are being vented directly outside.
Similar risks exist at the pools in reactors 5 & 6, though their rods have been cooling longer than those in reactor 4.
Is it fair to say the spent fuel pool for reactor 4 is imminently at risk for ignition and widespread contamination ? and are the pools for 5 and 6 approximately a day or so behind 4 – meaning at risk for ignition. BTW , what happened to the pools for 1, 2 and 3 – any official word on the status of those pools ? and what is the status of the common pool housed in the adjacent building – and where is that building in relationship to reactors 1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 or 6 / thanks for any input
With half its 200,000 strong SDF already assigned to disaster search, rescue and relief work, Japan is calling up army reservists.
It astounds me that every conceivable type of pump and hose was not deployed there by helicopter lift starting right away. Getting water to these pools is pretty straight forward. Not like the reactors where first you have to find a way to link into existing piping and have the proper valves open and closed and then pressure lowered. With these pools it is just like your backyard. Stick a hose in it and go. I mean this absolutely literally. WTF is going on or rather not?
This plan to dump water from above by helicopter which could work if the roof had an opening directly above seems crazy when the alternative is just to get a hose up to it.
The comments here seem to all center on the spent fuel pools. These are supposedly on the 4th or 5th floors of the buildings? Are they all in elevated portions of all buildings?
Concern is whether enough water can be applied to these pools to keep the rods from igniting and spreading radiation into the atmosphere.
Do we know whether the pools actually are still intact? Do they still contain any water?
If the tsunami damaged the building or the subsequent explosions caused weakening or failure of the pools, is it possible some, many or all of the rods are now physically out of the pools and in a sense “on dry land?”
If these pools are on upper floors and the building(s) collapses for whatever reason, tsunami, explosion or whatever, the rods may lose the protection of water anyway and no amount of pouring water into the pools or building will help.
Someone asked about robots. Any robotic experts out there? Are the electrical/computer systems of robots affected by any kind of radiation that could be found at these plants?
Lastly, I think I heard that the Obama Administration has ok’ed TEPCO to build a new nuke facility on the Gulf Coast. Anyone confirm this?
NYT reporting this morning that reactor #2 containment has breached and releasing radioactive steam. NPR reporting the site has been entirely abandoned “temprorarily”.
Act II is well underway.
If anyone knows, it’s not being broadcast in English language sources.
If the spent fuel pools had no backup power systems in place – an odd oversight, at best – they’ve been losing water since day 1. The UCS March 16th update’s author did not have information on how recently spent fuel rods had been placed in the pools in reactors 5 & 6. Nor did he comment on those in reactors 1,2,3.
Reactors 2 & 3, at least, sustained as much damage to their outer buildings as reactor 4, which means they’re venting whatever is being produced inside them. It would seem those reactors have internal temperatures at least as hot as reactor 4. So conditions in all these spent fuel pools have to be dire.
Isn’t chain reaction a distinct possibility in the spent pools when they run dry or near dry?
The worlds biggest dome is going to have to be built over this site to keep it from going airborne the next xxxx thousand years.
The designs of these six reactors appear to be identical, though they are not all using identical fuel mixes. Units 1-3 were still online, unit 4 had been taken down recently, units 5-6 apparently were down somewhat longer.
The graphic in the March 16th update from the UCS, cited above @ 3.32am, shows the position of the spent fuel pools in the upper right corner. It depicts a rectangular box 45′ deep. The rods take up the bottom 15′, covered optimally by 30′ of water that is constantly circulated and cooled. With no backup power, the water must be down quite a bit.
It sounds like we’ve entered a larger phase of “life-boat ethics.”
How much more damage do you risk to Fukushima and the immediately surrounding area to save Tokyo, the rest of Japan, the Korean Peninsula and other surrounding areas.
This is only an ethical dilemma if you believe that the choices you might make could have any impact on what happens.
High temperatures would be the most likely adverse factor affecting use of robots. That and the chaos of semi-destroyed buildings, poor lighting and the fact that if they can’t fly, they will have problems reaching machinery and what not not at ground level. There may be interference with radio transmissions as well. Technically trained readers will have more insight. That’s assuming any such robots are available and their use is attempted.
How do you reinforce helicopters to get that close? It sounds like they would need lead to protect the crews.
Same question for the dome, wouldn’t it have to be made out of lead or concrete?
The fear is not from a chain reaction. It’s from the fuel rods catching fire and releasing large amounts of radiation.
If temperature rise sufficiently, the zirconium alloy tubes could catch fire, corrode, and release the fuel pellets they contain. The pellets, the source of the heat, would gather and increase in heat. They melt, release more radiation. Attempts to cool them with water-based coolants would initially release large amounts of hydrogen, which would be likely to explode. There are no easy fixes here and none that do not involve considerable danger for those attempting them.
Per the NYT, Japan has changed the playing field for worker safety, increasing the “legal” limit for exposure from 100 to 250 millisieverts. The US limit is 100. That magically increases the hours the same number of workers can work.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html?_r=1&hp
We’re into fictions in order to keep workers on site. (It also limits liability for TEP and the govt later, but that’s a separate discussion.) These workers know the drill and that their workmates, neighbors and country depend on them. Duty, face and honor requires they stay on site, knowingly sacrificing their health or lives for their country. I hope their sacrifice achieves what they hope.
What a great week for the NYT’s to put up its paper-wide firewall.
The expense of excavating a site like this from below would be enormous. Factor in the lethal seismic factors, that cost increases exponentially.
It would take years, but I don’t see a less lethal solution for workers. You could start with a shaft a few miles away, run it in at a 45 degree angle under the reactors. All the while, it has to be incredibly reinforced to withstand the seismicity. You’ve got geiger counters to let you know if you’re deep enough. Once you established a “catch-basin” underneath the reactor site, you begin to withdraw the material and treat it has nuclear waste. Every mine has a train/conveyor system to get stuff out. A lot of this might be done remotely with cameras and remotely controlled vehicles.
The whole “catch-basin” idea belongs to Masoninblue.
We built the subway underneath NYC so the technology exists. Of course they didn’t have to deal with the extreme seismicity along with taking out radioactive material.
Yes, but statistically, how likely is ingestion?
The real danger to the workers is not 250 mSv. The real danger is the risk that they’re on site when it really goes to sh*t. (And as bad as it is now, I don’t foresee this staying a “level 6″ incident). I’m not saying 250 mSv is nothing. It’s a lot.
But it’s small compared to the real risk these guys are taking.
The claim is the fire was machine oil
My apologies for quoting and linking to this AP article reprinted at Yahoo News.
Thanks earl – there is much contradictory information circulating – from experts , government officials and the msm. I have found it quite odd that we have heard commentary about the spent fuel in units 3 and 4 – and now units 5 and 6 have come into the discussion , but nothing has been mentioned regarding units 1 and 2 . Thanks for you reply.
Chernobyl killed millions? Can you give us some reference for that? Here’s what Wikipedia says:
“UNSCEAR [United Nations Scientific Committee of the Effects of Atomic Radiation] has conducted 20 years of detailed scientific and epidemiological research on the effects of the Chernobyl accident. Apart from the 57 direct deaths in the accident itself, UNSCEAR originally predicted up to 4,000 additional cancer cases due to the accident.[4] However, the latest UNSCEAR reports suggest that these estimates were overstated.[75] In addition, the IAEA states that there has been no increase in the rate of birth defects or abnormalities, or solid cancers (such as lung cancer) corroborating UNSCEAR’s assessments.[76]
Precisely, UNSCEAR states:
Among the residents of Belaruss 09, the Russian Federation and Ukraine there had been, up to 2002, about 4,000 cases of thyroid cancer reported in children and adolescents who were exposed at the time of the accident, and more cases are to be expected during the next decades. Notwithstanding problems associated with screening, many of those cancers were most likely caused by radiation exposures shortly after the accident. Apart from this increase, there is no evidence of a major public health impact attributable to radiation exposure 20 years after the accident. There is no scientific evidence of increases in overall cancer incidence or mortality rates or in rates of non-malignant disorders that could be related to radiation exposure. The risk of leukaemia in the general population, one of the main concerns owing to its short latency time, does not appear to be elevated. Although those most highly exposed individuals are at an increased risk of radiation-associated effects, the great majority of the population is not likely to experience serious health consequences as a result of radiation from the Chernobyl accident. Many other health problems have been noted in the populations that are not related to radiation exposure.[75]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster#Individual_involvement
Understood. Isn’t the risk also cumulative? I gather from the NYT’s story that one reason the govt upped its “legal” limit was to keep the same small band of workers continuing to go in.
NPR’s As It Happens yesterday quoted an expert as saying Japan has about 6000 trained nuke workers. Many of the others will need to stay at their posts elsewhere, keeping Japan’s large number of reactors operating. So there aren’t a lot of replacement workers available. One would think, though, the govt would try to replace them in relays, using volunteers collected from other plants.
That would take time, planning and coordinating. It would have to work round new workers lack of familiarity with their new locations. Seem worth considering to relieve exhausted men whose exposure limits must be approaching.
I assume its possible, but it seems an odd source to be burning at such a rate now. One would think that it would have cooked off long ago.
Do you breathe or swallow? It all depends, of course, on atmospheric levels, which vary considerably, and whether you’re a worker wearing a working respirator or a citizen wearing one of those ubiquitous white masks.
It also seems a very dangerous place to store presumably large quantities of the stuff.
There is more or less an information blackout regarding what has/is burning in plant 4. This has been the case from the very beginning. It makes me extremely suspicious.
What you need right now are the guys who know where each valve is, each port, each hose, each gauge; guys who can figure out where to climb to check on things, etc etc. 5950 of Japan’s trained nuke workers don’t know all that.
And yes, the effect is cumulative. 250 mSv adds materially to your long-term cancer risk.
I was thinking in terms of melting through the pool bottom and dropping all the way down through the plant. Well whatever. They are going to be so hot, so crapped up, it may become virtually impossible to work inside them is one possible guess anyway.
The danger is not likely to be exposure to high quick doses or radiation but rather contamination of the people and equipment. So I am puzzled by this. Put protective clothing on and give them masks or supplied air. Set aside a landing zone where the protective clothing is removed, the helicopters washed down and the water accumulated and stored. The copters will be worthless later, just low level radioactive junk. Not a big deal.
The Soviet government was rounding up people to do the clean-up. A couple in Leningrad who knew how bad it was hid their son for four months.
Every conceiveble type of pump and hose, a score of diesel generators, bladders of fuel to run them – anything they need ought to be able to be airlifted in. There are friendly, technological countries all around who can surely be counted on for supplies and, I would think, technical assistance, crisis management skills, etc. Why is the world allowing this operation to be run on such an apparently fragile shoestring?
Fire TEPCO and begin an international response immediately.
Morning, peeps.
Regarding robots – if memory serves, space probes use primitive (180 nm IIRC) ICs because radiation will mess with the smaller gates on modern ICs.
Japan is the leader in robotics, but I would imagine that anything they have built uses current-generation electronics. They would probably have to specially design robots (and I’m sure it could be done) to function in this very high radiation environment we are envisioning.
Glad you’re back, Professor. As I said in a previous thread, these reactors were built at differen times, by different companies, with different individual blueprints and different contractors providing parts. Piping is different, valves are placed differently, or are of different designs by different manufacturers. They are built to the same design, but are all individuals. Much like sister ships in a line.
The Chinese are evacuating their people in the northern prefectures, some 22,000. They’re busing them to airports in Tokyo and Niigata.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599205925500;_ylt=AnmWmSutDzsrve0e5tUt0yz9xg8F;_ylu=X3oDMTJ2aWJqczZhBGFzc2V0A3RpbWUvMjAxMTAzMTYvMDg1OTkyMDU5MjU1MDAEY2NvZGUDcmRuYmUEY3BvcwMzBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDamFwYW5udWNsZWFy
France is advising it’s citizens to leave Tokyo “for a few days”, if they have no compelling reason to stay there.
All of this would seem to indicate that the reality of the situation is more serious than even the reports coming from the authorities (which are bad enough) would indicate.
Which isn’t surprising.
Earl, thanks for bringing that up. That jiggering of the numbers is obscene.
If they’re doing that to the workers, it bodes ill for any truth and disclosure of the real situation, to the general public.
Would someone possessing knowledge of this subject please answer one question for me… Why is it that the spent fuel rods and the nuclear reactors are not all located at or just below sea level so that water can be flowed into them easily? Why are spent fuel rods stored at such a high elevations above ground level, requiring large amount of energy to pump water into these storage tanks? It doesn’t make any sense. If I were designing these, I would locate all hot material at sea level. I would then dig a massive reservoir, which would remain empty except in cases of emergency such as this. Then, when power was lost, a gate to the ocean could be opened and ocean water could be poured through the system, fed by gravity, ending up in the empty reservoir. This would buy massive time and allow circulation of cooling water with almost no need for energy other than plain old simple gravity to propel the system. This seems like such a simple and obvious safeguard against total power failure. Why not?
Well, it’s midnight Thursday morning in the beleaguered nation of Japan. I expect very little direct news today. If things are as we suspect they are, we’ll see some additional fires, perhaps that are not put out, from the fuel rod ponds and massive spikes in radiation readings. Nobody will be able to get close enough to take any action or make any observations beyond “smoke billowing”. We will probably enter a partial media blackout. I suppose all we can do then is monitor the weather and reports of radiation readings in Tokyo.
I think you’re exactly right. Once the site is abandoned and all we know comes from satellite images of the fires, that will be the end of Act II.
I’d bet a dollar at even money the workers begged them to raise the limits.
Reuters is reporting that the EU Energy Commissioner has said publicly that the situation with Japan’s reactors is “out of control.”
If he’d been reading FDL, he’d have figured that out earlier, I guess.
“Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.”
This radiation catastrophe has only just begun ~