In an earlier post evaluating the House Health Care Reform Bill, I raised the question of the morality of voting for the bill, and argued that voting for it was an immoral act. Now that the Senate bill has been passed and includes many of the same features of the House bill including a “band-aid” period before the bill takes full effect in 2014, and the likelihood that a final Conference compromise will incorporate features of both bills, it’s time to raise the question of morality again. In connection with the House bill I said:
”So, what should we think of this bill, evaluating it from the perspective of what it provides in the band-aid period. Does it improve things in that period or not? Is it better than nothing at all? Is it an immoral and an intolerable bill, in some ways like Alan Grayson’s Republican plan saying to thousands of people each year, “If you get sick then die quickly.”
”The truth is that the bill does improve things immediately in 2010. It prohibits rescission. It provides a way, through the high risk pool, for people with preconditions to get insurance, even if it is at a high price. It also does some good things for Medicare recipients, and a number of good things that are part of the “goody bag.” Yet even though this bill is an improvement compared to the status quo, I think that both putting it forward and voting for it are immoral acts, if the bill, in any way, creates a dynamic that prevents us from, or weakens our efforts to, take up the health insurance reform problem in the next session, and thereafter, for as long as it takes to get a bill that will end fatalities, bankruptcies, and home foreclosures, due to lack of insurance.”
And to add a point Kip Sullivan made in a comment on one of my earlier posts on the House bill, one very important way in which both House and Senate bills hurt future efforts for health care reform is that they fail to provide legal protection against insurance company law suits, based on ERISA legislation, for States enacting single-payer reforms. Going on with my earlier statement:
”The overriding problem with the bill is that it prioritizes deficit neutrality over the deaths of many thousands of Americans per year. Yes, I said earlier that the bill will reduce the 45,000 annual deaths by some substantial amount, but in the “band-aid” period before the exchange takes effect in 2013, we’re still looking at 31,000 or so deaths per year from lack of insurance. And, even after that at current death rates due to lack of insurance we’re still looking at 11,000 annual deaths. These likely forecasts suggest that the current bill is a great moral failure of the Democratic Party and progressives who support it.”
Of course, the Senate bill provides an effective date of the exchange, the mandates, and the subsidies of 2014, which means that the fatalities to be expected before the effective date will rise to roughly 140,000, from the previous expectation of 108,000, under the House bill. In addition, the latest estimates on the Senate bill forecast 23,000,000 still uninsured by 2018, meaning that my previous estimate of 11,000 fatalities per year after the band-aid period due to lack of insurance for the House bill will rise to 23,000 per year in the Senate bill, which translates to another 127,000 expected fatalities, a grand total of 267,000 expected fatalities by the end of 2019.
Those urging passage of a bill that would be a compromise between the House and Senate bills, say that people have to evaluate such a compromise from the perspective of how it compares to no bill at all. And they argue that this bill is certainly an improvement over none at all, and they claim great credit for getting any legislation at all through Congress. However, that is a false framing, since the fair comparison of this bill is with other possibilities that are within the legal authority for Congress to pass, and that Congress could, if it wished, take up and pass right now. Alternative bills can be passed by Congress now using reconciliation or the nuclear option. It is not true that the only choice is between no bill at all and this one. So, why can’t a bill be passed that ends nearly all the anticipated fatalities due to lack of coverage, along with all the bankruptcies and foreclosures by the end of 2010? While there are many reasons that explain this including many political factors, and just plain, good old-fashioned corruption, the core political rationalization:
”. . . is that the bill’s number one priority is not solving America’s health insurance problem. It is, instead, to pass a bill that legislators can say is deficit neutral. That is “deficit hawkism,” the ideology that prioritizes bringing tax revenues and Government expenditures into balance ahead of other far more essential national needs and priorities. In the case of health insurance and health care problems, adhering to that ideology is not only mistaken, or stingy, or an instance of false economy, but given that it accepts the inevitability of hundreds of thousands of American deaths over the next decade, it is immoral. And its application in this legislation, which has led to the requirement that the final bill cost $900 Billion over 10 years and be deficit neutral, according to CBO estimates, is also immoral.”
The extent of immorality accompanying the choice to vote for one of these two bills, or any compromise that retains its essential provisions is even more apparent, when we recognize that we have not applied that standard to the Bank and Wall Street bailouts, or to the Wars in Afghanistan, and Iraq. We do prioritize some things above “deficit hawkism,” just not the lives of more than 140,000 Americans over the next 4.5 years, and about 127,000 more over the next 5.5 years after that first period.
There are other reasons why choosing to vote for the bill is immoral, depending on its final provisions. The Senate bill allows unregulated price gouging by an industry with an anti-trust exemption whose companies would be allowed to legally fix prices.
Both bills, in slightly differing degrees, impose constraints on the reproductive choices of women.
After 2014, the Senate bill forces people to buy insurance they can’t afford from private insurers, as does the House bill after 2013. The subsidies don’t do anything about high out-of-pocket costs, which will be great enough to drive middle class people into bankruptcies and foreclosure, especially since lifetime caps are still permitted. Marcy Wheeler’s most recent analysis (see also related links) shows that many middle class people will end up paying an enormous amount for routine check-ups they would be entitled to have if they bought insurance, but that their budgets would not allow them to get care if those check-ups revealed any serious illnesses.
The bill facilitates the march of the American political system away from Democracy and toward Plutocracy. By failing to curb rising premium costs in the period up to 2014, the bill adds further to the income insurance companies can use to block further health care reform. So, it hurts the sustainability of political efforts at further health care reform, and their ability to gain strength over time. This highlights another progressive core principle violated by the bill. Every bill must be evaluated in terms of its political effect on democracy, and whether or not it facilitates the evolution of American democracy toward Plutocracy. Bills, like this one, whose effects will be to weaken rather than strengthen the sustainability of democracy, ought to be opposed in principle by progressives.
In addition, passing a bill retaining a “band-aid” period of perhaps 3 to 4.5 years, brings with it the near certainty, if we try to revisit health insurance reform, of having to face a propaganda campaign from those opposing further change, emphasizing the idea that we just got through legislating that, and that we therefore, ought to wait until the “band-aid” period is over, and the legislation with its public option plan, has had a chance to work, without considering more reform.
Looking at things from the perspective of these various reasons, and the possibility of other and better alternatives, and not from the perspective of whether they are better than no bill at all; the two pending bills, are both immoral and intolerable. Any compromise between them coming out of the conference committee needs to be defeated on moral grounds, and another bill needs to be quickly put in its place.
Since voting for these bills or any compromise between them is immoral, everyone who has had a significant part in their passage needs to be called to account. I, of course, don’t have the power to that, but I do have the moral right and duty to do it. I’ll adopt Emile Zola’s style in calling people to account for corruption in the Dreyfuss case in order to dramatize my call, and I’ll limit my calls to account to the Executive Branch and the Congress, since, in the end, people in these branches are the ones most immediately responsible for the bills we see before us.
I accuse: President Barack Obama, of manipulating the Congress in seeking passage of an immoral bill labeled “heath care reform,” but better labeled the Health Insurance Company Bailout Act of 2010.
I accuse: White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel for acting as President Obama’s chief instrument of Congressional influence in seeking passage of the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act of 2010.
I accuse: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of leading the House of Representatives into successfully passing the House version of the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act.
I accuse: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of leading the Senate in successfully passing the Senate version of the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act, including his continuing support for and use of regular Senate Order in passing the legislation, to the exclusion of using either reconciliation, or the “nuclear option” removing the filibuster, when the use of either of these would probably have produced a bill that is not immoral.
I accuse: House Minority Leader John Boehner of contributing to the passage of the House version of the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act by creating a solid front of “no” votes on “health care reform,” and in doing so supporting the interests of the health insurance industry against the interests of the American people including the middle and working class voters who provide the vast majority of Republican Party votes.
I accuse: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of contributing to passage of the House version of the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act by creating a solid front of “no” votes on “health care reform,” and a solid front of Republicans threatening to use the filibuster to prevent any health care reform bill from reaching the floor of the Senate, and receiving an up or down vote requiring only a simple majority for passage, and in doing so supporting the interests of the health insurance industry against the interests of the American people, including the middle and working class voters who provide the vast majority of Republican Party votes.
I accuse: every member of the Republican Party in the House and the Senate of complicity in supporting their leaders in developing and voting for the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act of 2010. And I accuse, in particular, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Mike Enzi, and Chuck Grassley of having particularly great influence in weakening the Senate bill.
I accuse: every member of the Democratic Party in the House and the Senate of complicity in supporting their leaders in developing and voting for the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act of 2010. I further single out for accusation, Representative Bart Stupak and Senators Max Baucus, Kent Conrad, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, Ben Nelson, and Joe Lieberman. The first for successfully sponsoring an Amendment constraining women’s reproductive rights under the bill. The second, for his especially invidious role in taking enhanced Medicare for All “off the table” at the beginning of deliberations, and for his key role in crafting the health insurance company bailout that is the central characteristic of this bill. And the rest for their roles in gradually weakening and watering down the reform, while exhibiting to the nation at large the corrupt reality of how anticipation of the filibuster, and efforts to avoid it all costs, result in the weakening of reform legislation.
I accuse: every member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus except Dennis Kucinich and Eric Massa of complicity in supporting their leaders in developing and voting for the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act of 2010. I single out for further accusation Lynn Woolsey and Raul Grijalva for their concurrence in this immoral act. And I further single out for accusation Marcy Kaptur for her vote in support of the Stupak Amendment constraining the reproductive free choice of women under this bill. I further single out noted members of the caucus including: Jon Conyers, Anthony Weiner, Keith Ellison, Alan Grayson, Donna Edwards, Barbara Lee, John Lewis, Eric Massa, Jerry Nadler, Jan Schakowsky, Louise Slaughter, Pete Stark, Maxine Waters, and Robert Wexler. While it may seem unfair to select these members of the Caucus for special mention, since they were probably among the strongest supporters of what would have been a moral bill; they were also the ones who have represented themselves as the strongest supporters of progressive principles, some over many years. They were the last line of defense for a moral bill in the House, yet they too bowed to the pragmatism of the moment and to the Administration and leadership narratives, and refused to stand on the principles that they themselves have claimed were at the core of their political identities. Shame on them for not standing with Dennis Kucinich and Eric Massa, and opposing the House Bill. And shame on them again now if they refuse to vote against a compromise bill that includes band-aid periods, mandates, and insurance company bailouts.
I accuse: every Senator who identifies themselves as a liberal or progressive, for not standing up for their principles and forcing Harry Reid to seek to pass this bill by using reconciliation or “the nuclear option.” Deserving of special mention here are: Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Russ Feingold, Pat Leahy, Al Franken, Sheldon Whitehouse, Tom Harkin, Ron Wyden, Patty Murray, Dick Durbin, Barbra Boxer, Byron Dorgan, Barbara Mikulski, Ben Cardin, Jay Rockefeller, John Kerry, Maria Cantwell, and Paul Kirk. All that any small group of these Senators needed to do is to tell Harry Reid and the President that they would not vote for any bill with a mandate that did not also come with a Medicare option for everyone, and Reid would have had no choice but to turn to reconciliation and new negotiations to find a bill that could gain 51 votes or perhaps only 50 + 1. However, these progressives could not be counted on to stand on principle against the immoral Health Insurance Company Bailout Act of 2010.
When contemplating American politics today, it’s hard not to think of Yeats’s line from the Second Coming:
”The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”
In the health care reform legislative process, the progressives held true to the slogan that “the perfect is the enemy of the good,” and they forgot the maxim that “if you stand for nothing, you’ll end up with nothing.” So, here we are with worse than nothing, with two immoral bills, that do more harm than good, and with every prospect that an equally bad compromise between them will be presented to both Houses for final ratification.
That immoral compromise needs to be defeated. Health Care Reform must be sent back to the Leadership for further work. If Congress is not immediately ready for true health care reform ending the fatalities, bankruptcies and foreclosures within a years’ implementation time, then, at least, a bill must be passed that ends rescissions, denials of coverage or price discrimination based on preconditions, and that limits insurance premium increases to the annual rate of inflation, effective immediately.
That sort of bill would reduce the fatalities, bankruptcies and foreclosures. It would not provide a solution to health care reform. But, voting for it doesn’t violate morality, because it would alleviate current conditions, while leaving open the possibility of legislating further incremental, or even more significant improvements, almost immediately without having to wait for a band-aid period to pass, and without having to be concerned about a politically strengthened insurance industry opposing further reform. That sort of bill doesn’t get us where we want to go. But it is a step down the path toward universal health care, not a detour toward lemon socialism in health insurance.
(Also posted at the Alllifeisproblemsolving blog and Correntewire.com where there may be more comments)



68 Comments

Kill the Bill.
Yes, or strip the mandates, and the band-aid period out of it and add price controls. Then come back immediately for more reforms.
Killing the bill will be, at this point, about the only thing that might dim Rahm Emanuel’s “star,” and thus lead to less capitulation and corporatism from the administration. It’s too bad so few “liberals” get this… Republicans know that its passing will be a great fundraising tool, and an example of Democratic failure.
I predict: bill passes, Republicans win big this year, political chaos next year.
Great post. The only partisanship we see nowadays is in screwing over the American people. I agree too that it is important to call out all of those who participated, facilitated, and acquiesced in this deeply immoral bill. I would include the media and many in the left blogosphere who continue to support Democrats simply because they are Democrats no matter how corporatist or Republican they act.
I am unclear about the band-aid period. I thought this was a time when taxes would be collected before exchanges were delivered in 2014 in an effort to make the costs look smaller. But I am not sure about this.
No more bailouts. Just enjoy a bailout that won’t cost any taxpayer a single cent: http://www.bailoutthegame.com
This is kind of absurd. How is a fair comparison the entire legal authority of Congress, minus the prevalent political discourses and electoral positions of the parties in question? It seems to delete a huge number of issues from discussion.
The truth is, killing this bill is not going to result in a better bill via reconciliation. The Obama administration is simply going to wash its hands over the heads of whatever progressive congressbeings it can hold responsible for letting it die. What, do you think the status quo can’t last another decade?
What this bill might do is at least destroy the narrative that health care reform is a political third rail. That’s not something to scoff at.
Hi ch, We may have to kill the bill to stop it, but the Conference could strip the mandates, exchanges, the band-aid period and the subsidies out of it and just pass the rest. That would give the Rahm a defeat because he appears to want a bailout of the insurance companies. Technically that wouldn’t be killing the bill, but in substance it would be.
Anyway, I think we could live with that and move on to more reform right away.
Hi cassiodorus. Could be. If so, these gutless wonders deserve it. The trouble is, the rest of us don’t.
Hi Hugh, Glad you liked it. I decided to restrict my calling out of the media and various interest groups and voluntary associations for reasons of space and also because my main purpose was to begin holding elected officials responsible. The “band-aid” is the period between enactment of the bill and the time the exchanges, subsidies, and mandates are operational. I defined it that way in the earlier post cited above.
Excellent diary, letsgetitdone. I especially like the line from Yeats.
Hi Mandos, You said:
I don’t think that’s quite what I said. Please look at the quote again. I confess that I can’t see how you read into it what you have.
You also said:
Well, you’re entitled to your forecast on this. But, I think that if the Administration lets hcr without a bill, the Dems are gone in 2010, and Obama’s probably gone in 2012. I think Obama knows that, and that he will deal with the devil to get a bill. If he has to deal with the progressives he certainly will.
And no, I don’t think the status quo can last another decade. It’s causing far too much pain. Whatever happens to this bill, we’ll see a better reform bill within the next two years. This ain’t 1994 and people aren’t going to keep on dying quietly and quickly for teh sake of the insurance companies and Wall Street.
Finally, you said:
I’m scoffing, primarily because I think that passing this bill as it is will be touching the third rail for the Democrats. There isn’t enough money in the world to persuade people that this is a good bill that is in their interest. It will play into the narrative that Obama has sold out to the corps and that the Dems are no longer the Party of the people.
Not to worry though, once all those blue dogs get purged by angry tea baggers, independents, and leftish Democrats in their swing districts, we’ll see some changes coming or we’re going to see a third Party.
Hi fflambeau, Everyone likes it. and it’s hard not to think of it the way the progressives have been acting.
Hey lets great diary.
All of us fail to get it, that what we get is what we get, and they have paid little attention to anything we thought so far, that their all of a sudden listening to us is unlikely.
The bill may kill itself before it’s over.
No matter what happens with it the Repubs will claim they saved us from a worse death, and win the propaganda war.
Hope not, iremember54. We’ll have to wait and see about who wins that.
letsgetitdone: You argued that the correct comparison is not between this prospective bill and no bill, but this bill and all the range of “other possibilities that are within the legal authority of Congress to pass” by various means that are at its disposal.
At the moment, however, Congress is not considering any of those other means or possibilities, especially since a bill version has passed both houses and is waiting to be merged. So, the fair comparison is between this bill and no bill.
Now, you can argue—as you do—that no bill now will lead to a better bill in the immediate future. ie, that a defeat for this bill is a worthwhile risk to take. I already told you what I think of that possibility, and that is that it is a real unicorn of a fantasy, though I’d be happy to be proven wrong in that eventuality.
The current bill is not a third rail, and if it passes, I’d be surprised if it hurt Democratic prospects in 2010 more than the likely continued high unemployment, at least. A failure on HCR would be a big failure for Obama, no doubt, but he would cut his losses and work on other matters economic rather than belabour the HCR debate, what with a ready scapegoat and all. No politician hates a scapegoat.
Oh, and: the status quo can last as long as 60% or so of the population continues to think it is well-covered by existing systems, which is something that the insurance industry can certainly perpetuate for some time.
y’know, Lets, if only you could jeer at Glenn Beck or Karl Rove or Rush Limbaugh a little more, and then segue smoothly up into a dense closely reasoned piece like this, they might put you on the front page where you belong!
This deserves repeating:
Well said.
In a way, this whole episode clarifies my political donations this year: NOBODY but Kucinich & Massa will get anything from me.
I’m sorry Mandos. I don’t find this reasoning compelling or even persuasive. No one’s real good at predicting the future. But I take comfort in knowing that I’ve been pretty much right about since beginning to blog on hcr back in the summer. You can check out my earlier posts here and on linked pages. But remember this prediction. If a health care bill passes in a form like these Democrats are going down in 2010. If this hcr bill, and the Democrats don’t pass another before the elections without a band-aid period, without mandates, and with serious controls on the insurance industry they are going down in 2010. The only way they neutral on this is to do what’s recommended above. And the only way they get actual credit is if they can pass a bill that either extends Medicare to other segments of the population, or creates a PO and exchange open to everyone within a year.
Now let’s see who’s better at prediction.
I think the polls are distorted on this, because they ask whether people are satisfied with health care not if they are satisfied with their insurance. Also, most have employer-provided insurance. There will be serious inroads in that insurance over the next couple of years and many businesses will be dropping it because they can’t afford it. Then the full burden will be on individuals who will be looking at $20,000 per family within a few years. I don’t know where the breaking point of this is, but I think it’s real close to the time when the employer-based system just breaks.
BTW, your implication that 60% are satisfied with the insurance they have now, doesn’t square with Kip Sullivan’s 6-part recent analysis showing that 2/3 of the population support Medicare for All. I recommend that series to you.
Thanks spork. I appreciate it. Patience in all things is the watchword here, I think.
Hi pointus. You might try Jonathan Tasini running for the Senate in new York State and primarying Kirsten Gillibrand, a real DLC neo-liberal type. Jonathan is a very constant Medicare for All advocate and really looks like the real thing when it comes to social justice concerns. He might even have the guts to do something like killing a bill the Administration wants.
I see. I’m gong to skirt around the important question of “who’s we?” to ask this question: So do we have a political organization, not associated with the Veal Pen, which will primary Blue Dog Democrats nationwide?
Over the past three decades the Democratic Party, with the willing complicity of its membership, has worked to destroy progressive opportunities to influence the Federal government. And now it’s come to this, with the wealthy parasites in power seriously in a position to destroy the health of the host organism, America. Take a look at the web of collusion that has made it all possible. Do you see any weaknesses?
My point is this — “we” deserve this, if for no other reason than that “we” have failed to do “our” homework.
cassiodorus, I do see weaknessses. The top-down structure of the Democratic Party with its co-optation of the veal pen organizations, can’t keep people involed and active. Already they are falling away from these organizations, not contributing and becoming ripe for efforts at self-organizing alternative organizations.
With the social networking tools available today, it’s comparatively easy to start new organizations. If we don’t work with veal pen organizations in the elections this year, I think they’ll begin to fade away. If we start counter-oganizations now, or join with some of the less successful, but more militant progressive orgaizations out there now, these can grow rapidly and replace move-on, DFA, OFA, and some of the others.
Fair enough (re prediction). I suspect that the question will be unanswerable because unemployment will dominate the discussion in November, not health care, and on that front, I would expect that the Democrats are going to lose some seats but probably not the whole House. And you’re right, no one has a crystal ball.
I said nothing about whether or not people “support the current system” (they likely don’t) or whether or not they support single-payer or what have you. I don’t see anything in Kip Sullivan’s series on how long people are willing to live with what they currently have, is the thing. And I’m betting that a lot of people are willing to live with what they have (based on the incontrovertible evidence that they have been living with it thus far, and there is no health care militia…).
I really doubt that the insurance industry is ever going to let itself reach a point where it doesn’t appear to a majority of the population that they themselves can afford health care. In fact, they are now merely engaging in an exploration of what pricing can ensure their political and economic survival while maximizing their profits. When it looks like certain constituencies are starting to get hosed, watch them throttle back just from that brink. That’s capitalism for you.
Thanks. I think it won’t based so much on issues, though polls may appear to show that. I think it will be based on an overall evaluation Main Street will make about the Democrats. It will be about are they for us or against us. The Democrats actions on jobs, credit card reform, and health care will make Main Street’s verdict on that question negative. It will conclude that the Dems are against us and for the corps, and it will punish the Dems for that, even though it doesn’t expect Republicans to be any better.
Could be. We’ll see how things develop. I’d agree with you that they will pull back, except that they have Wall Street at their backs demanding that those profits go ever higher. And they’re also run by Execs whose pay packages reward them for profits made by abusing their customers. Since the tenure of high-level execs is relatively short these days, the tendency is to run things in such a way that they can get while the getting is good. I think the attitude is: “Apres moi, le deluge.”
Also, there are a lot of problems with Kip Sullivan’s poll deconstruction that leap out immediately. First of all, the narrow point that you can get all kinds of interesting and contradictory poll results if you (a) ask the question in certain ways and (b) creatively interpret the results is, well, as correct as it is obvious.
But for him to compare them to citizen juries seems to miss the point of the Jacob Hacker-style argument against which he is militating. The question that needs to be answered is the effect of public opinion on the behaviour of the legislators. What methodology (citizen juries, certain types of polling, focus groups, etc) best reflects the conditions under which citizens cast their ballots and the effect of the health care issue on said ballots? How will this be likely to affect the behaviour of Congress in the near term?
That is the point of the mantra, “Politics, politics, politics.” Yes, if you sit a limited collection of people in a room and give them the full evidence for single-payer, you can convince them that it is the way to go. So? Does that make it more likely that Congress will vote for single-payer?
Agreed at least in that the population will look on the US political system as being full of FAIL. I also hope that you are correct that the public will view this as system capture by big corporations rather than the right-wing populist alternatives (illegals, etc). US ethnic heterogeneity may save the day in this case.
Hi, Lets. I second about Tasini. If you watch him when he is on CNBC, he’s a real fighter. He’s quick and bright and a workers advocate. He’s the real deal.
It’s true that execs often have pretty short-sighted incentive schemes, but I would not overestimate the effect of this too much. The whole health insurance market has the quality of the proverbial frog being slowly boiled.
I don’t think Kip is suggesting that it would make Congress more likely to pass SP. But I think Kip is suggesting that through a campaign period people may be persuaded that enhanced Medicare for All is in their interest, and I think he is suggesting that the jury situation is more similar to the nevironment of a small campaign that it is to a poll or a focus group. I think the social science evidence is that polls do not predict very well except within very short time frames and very constrained decisions. Certainly, polls constucted for the express purpose of maginalizing SP, don’t give you a good measure of how people feel about Medicare for All.
In addition, Kip’s case for saying that 2/3 support Medicare for All, isn’t solely based on jury studies carried out years ago, he also analyzes plenty fairly recent polls that suggest very broad support for it.
Yes, you mean the fascist style scapegoating of immigrants for all of our problems?
Hi mm, How are you? I’m really hopeful he is, and right now I believe he is, but after Obama I’m very skeptical about everyone and will watch carefully for real consistency.
I know, I’m afraid of that too. We’ve all been acting like frogs slowly being boiled since the mid-70s, I’m just hoping that we’re not frogs and will one day soo understand that the water is too hot for us and that we do have control over the temperature if we’d only exercise it.
Time to fold on this crappy hand and do what it takes to build support behind Medicare for All.
Kill the damn bill.
We can’t fold before doing all we can to get rid of the mandates and make them subject to antitrust law.
Kill it the way it is. Get a better bill as far along the rod to medicare for All as we can.
Season’s Greetings Lgid,
Nice piece of work and I see you have almost passed the kidney stone of optimism with the Democrats. I guess you have heard that the Senate Bill is being ping-ponged out of conference with very few changes. From our perspective, the greatest betrayal is from the progressives in congress. They had the ability to make a much better bill, but they don’t have their heart in it. In most cases they have too many obligations to the leadership and to their various corporate sponsors to make a difference. A few actually just don’t have the stomach for a fight (i.e Sanders and Feingold). I think you can stop talking about legislative strategies with the Democrats, though. The real solution is to have them defeated roundly in 2010 and hope we can convince some of the survivors that their future is with us, not them. Until we capture the Democratic Party, it will work against real change ever as much as the Republicans do.
If Congress cared about the deaths of Americans needlessly they’d have mandated the Automobile manufacturers create drunk proof cars yrs. ago. Seen any lately? The truth is they don’t care. They care more about the PROFITS of the Health Ins. mafia way before they care about the death of some poor American losers that aren’t part of the elite winners circle they belong to.
why squander activist energy and motivation trying to capture that rotten fort?
it may be weakened in many ways, but it is still riddled with traps, trapdoors, booby traps and dead-ends sufficient to waylay the mighty Insurgent Progressive Democrats!
as you point out:
that’s just not going to change.
I applaud the sentiment of:
but the ‘us’ has to be a political formation impervious to all the leverage the Democratic Party machine has at its disposal, such as major foundation funding. (hello Veal Pen!)
Hi cb, I agree. The Dems need to lose in 2010.
Blutodog, It’s hard not to draw that conclusion. So, make ‘em care.
Great diary.
I agree with naming all these supposed progressives for their concessions to this give-away to the insurance companies.
The only way Obama will lose in 2012 is if he succeeds in watering down Social Security and I don’t think he has the time to organize that, although Kent Conrad is trying to move things along nicely.
Obama’s raison d’etre is doing away with what’s left of the New Deal.
Maybe so, spork. But I like the idea of having an inside movement and an outside movement.
Hi Matt, I don’t agree. I think he can lose over jobs and hcr, even if he doesn’t get SS and Medicare. If unmeployment stays at 10%, or there’s a double-dip recession, I think he’s done if the Rethugs nominate Romney.
indeed – we have agreed on this elsewhere.
however, the old Overton Window, progressive blogosphere version, has to be pulled over x° in order to maybe, eventually, establish position at (x/2)°. or even (x/9000)°.
which is why, sometimes, my tone and phrasing is extra emphatic.
Yes, but we need a ready made structure, unless, of course, you can tell me, and I know you support this, how we can actually get a third party up and running quickly. I just don’t see that. I prefer a hijacking.
You/re right. That Overton Window has to be moved leftward.
how can the course of action you recommend be done quickly?
also note that your course has been the one advocated for the restive Left within the (D) Party since the days of Jesse Jackson’s primary campaigns!
this is a logical offshoot of lets’ thread, and will be an ongoing issue, perhaps forever, but I will also mention that while 3rd Party and (I) victories may not happen quickly, the very fact that members of the herd are bolting for greener pastures will likely lead to immediate ameliorative measures (if only phony/symbolic ones) on the part of (D) Leadership, to try to stanch the outflow.
(and lord knows, phony and symbolic measures certainly suffice to overjoy and motivate many ‘progressives’ – see ‘the Public Option.’)
(and, 2ndly, the enaction of any major phony and symbolic measures may suffice to re-motivate more of the demoralized, long-suffering base than they lose to the bolters, so also put that scenario in yr pipe and puff it.)
The GOP in its present form is unlikely to nominate Romney.
Like that worked the last time it was tried. Until the overwhelming bulk of the American public is ready to move, all at once, to a new party, your only option for working within the system remains a lengthy effort at taking over the Democratic Party.
We have a precedent here. In 1934 and 1935, Roosevelt’s New Deal was attacked from both the right and the left. Roosevelt, while taking measures that were very radical for the time, nevertheless tried to unify the interests of both business and labor in the context of the NRA. However he received very little cooperation from business that was not forced by law, and also pressure from Labor, the Communists, the Socialists, and Huey Long on the Left. In addition, the conservative Supreme Court, led by “the four horsemen” were striking down New Deal legislation.
He decided that the only way he could win in 1936 was to move to the Left, which he did with the Second New Deal in 1934-35, providing concrete evidence that he was aligning with “the common man” against the interests. Clearly the present of potent third Parties that were seen as a real threat played a role in moving FDR to the left. He knew that the left had other places to go. he also knew that the Right wouldn’t cooperate with him, even though he was clearly doing what needed to be done to save capitalism. So he chose the Left, and, I’m tempted to say, the rest is history.
Don’t be too sure. They’ve got a terrible problem. Their hearts may be with Palin, or one of the others, but they don’t have a chance of pulling the independents with them. The only visible Republican who has a chance against Obama is Romney. The others are all clowns or fringe types like Palin. He’s the only one who’s credible in poor economic times. It’s either get behind him or lose again.
I think history shows that you need both people inside trying to move to the left and people outside strengthening their hand inside. I don’t see why that won’t work again. Also, I’m not sure what you mean by
What did you have in mind?
yeah, tried when?
what are you referencing? the tired conventional wisdom about election 2000? please.
those were boom times, complacent times, and the charade of legacy party ‘choice’ was much healthier, and the number of (D)’s bolting was, unfortunately, rather minimal, not enough to sway the election, retrospective Nader scapegoating aside.
lets gave you a history lesson about the power of a restive Left with authentic choices vis-a-vis the New Deal, and that is a instructive model for the long Depression this country is likely to be entering.
you give the standard rote catechismic lines you have been taught: no choice, country not ready, it’s all Nader’s fault in 2000. Its like recitation from a prayerbook.
so, with apologies for this detour from the incredibly strong and valid post above us, here is why it is absolutely necessary for the principled Left to abandon their failed, unrequited devotion to an inimical and unresponsive Donkey Party:
here are 3 major developments since 2000:
the underbrush is dry, the winds are blowing strong, a spark could spread with ease in these conditions.
If the Left isn’t ready, the Right will be, and we do indeed know where that can go, if not in 2012 then beyond.
and, many know how utterly complicit and useless a center-right, corporate gang like the Democrats would be in resisting rampant Right populism, so forget the tired “least worst” guilt trip in that context.
Yes, I know some progressives would like to think that things are very different from 2000, but they really aren’t…what you’re describing is something more like the Republicans were at in 1992, but I’m happy to take that analogy as well.
For the time being, at least, the pain is still largely concentrated in constituencies that don’t vote.
Granted, seems to be correct.
The blogosphere as political revolution has been declaimed far and wide, but if you are not willing to count Obama and the House as successes or not willing to attribute them to it, then I fail to see how the Net has made such a big difference. FDL was not able to unseat Lieberman in the not to distant past…and you think the Internet is ready to support a successful third party?
At best, it can pull a Ross Perot on the Democratic Party, which I guess is what you want. You just have to live with 4-8 years of another Republican administration which is a scary prospect even if Obama is annoying or deeply deficient. Yes, they do have that blackmail handy and the power of the state to back it.
The ultimate point being (and to bring it back on topic): all these shortcut paths to single payer via defeating the Senate bill or cutting down the Democrats in 2010 because of bill passage depend on what are—taken together—an extremely unlikely series of contingencies, which all have far more likely risks than benefits.
spork, I entirely agree. Anything can happen. Obama can’t get his network together again. Too much of it he pissed off and pissed away. It’s there for the taking. Liz Warren can take it.
Mandos, You say:
Gotta say, the year 2000 was one of my friends, I knew 2000 really well, and 2010 ain’t no 2000 for anybody except the Wall Streeters who got bailed out by this incomparably foolish Administration and who are enjoying their criminally large bonuses for gambling successfully with our money.
In the big picture, in 2000 as in 2010, the USA was an enormous rapacious bloodsoaked unacknowledged global empire following and/or imposing neoliberal orthodoxy on the less fortunate, with a decaying rust belt, a broken health care system, and all of the pathologies that exists today.
It was then on the tail end of an economic upswing, while the USA is now in a large downswing—that’s the major difference. Aside from that, largely the same overall electoral dynamics existed then as now—two parties, exclusive debates, lots of money—and it will yield results within similar parameters.
final round for me tonight:
2008 represented a successful co-optation of the new networked possibilities – they cannot repeat that trick indefinitely, but granted, it might work a few more times.
I try to refer to a new political formation, including an electoral politics component. social movement organizing, mutual support, community outreach capabilities – much will have to be done outside of the little voting temple in even numbered years. that is another discussion again.
a fine joust Mandos, you are sharper than most.
until next time.
Mandos, the underlying structures may not be that different, but the structure of appearance and attitudes is different. The economic and political elites have lost an enormous amount of prestige and more people in the United States know they are in the shitter now than at any time since the 1930s. They blame business and the politicians for that. The activism of 2008 was unprecented in recent electoral politics. Those activists are now loose from their moorings and ready to join movements that arouse the hope of real change.
“Yes we Can” was effective because people believe it. It’s a double-edged sword. Obama doesn’t own it. We own it. And we can use it against him and the Democratic Party.
Good comment spork. Involvement in a movement like that will cost much more than support of one of the legacy parties both in money and time. I think we’ll have to get used to monthly financial contributions to various aspects of organizing and also to spending a good deal of time volunteering. It’s all about taking our country back from the corps.
So, I hope that you’re right that the 2004-2008 period was a dress rehearsal in the Democratic laboratory theater for online and offline political activists. I assume you also then agree that this kind of support was important in getting Obama elected, and by implication, without it Obama may not have been elected. (If this is not the case, then the activists of 2004-2008 were not all that influential and your thesis fails on this basis.)
To some extent it will depend on how willing the elites are to favour *encouraging* right-wing populism out of fear of the left, when it comes to the point that both populisms are the only options available. My read on the People Who Matter is that they’re divided on the issue—as many of them in cosmopolitan USA are minorities, there’s a natural wariness of right-wing populism, but as we’ve seen visible, an absolute refusal to accept left-wing premises.
I agree with everything in this comment.