My friend and MMT mentor, Warren Mosler offered this fine, simply stated speech to President Obama for September 8th.
My fellow Americans, let me get right to the point.
I have three bold new proposals to get back all the jobs we lost, and then some.
In fact, we need at least 20 million new jobs to restore our lost prosperity and put America back on top.
First let me state that the reason private sector jobs are lost is always the same.
Jobs are lost when business sales go down.
Economists give that fancy words- they call it a lack of aggregate demand.
But it’s very simple.
A restaurant doesn’t lay anyone off when it’s full of paying customers,
no matter how much the owner might hate the government,
the paper work, and the health regulations.
A department store doesn’t lay off workers when it’s full of paying customers,
And an engineering firm doesn’t lay anyone off when it has a backlog of orders.
Restaurants and other businesses lay people off when their customers stop buying, for any reason. So the reason we lost 8 million jobs almost all at once back in 2008 wasn’t because all of a sudden all those people decided they’d rather collect unemployment than work.
The reason all those jobs were lost was because sales collapsed.
Car sales, for example, collapsed from a rate of almost 17 million cars a year to just over 9 million cars a year.
That’s a serious collapse that cost millions of jobs.
Let me repeat, and it’s very simple, when sales go down, jobs are lost,
and when sales go up, jobs go up, as business hires to service all their new customers.
So my three proposals are specifically designed to get sales up to make sure business has a good paying job for anyone willing and able to work.
That’s good for businesses and all the people who work for them.
And these proposals are bipartisan.
They are supported by Americans ranging from Tea Party supporters to the Progressive left, and everyone in between.
So listen up!
My first proposal if for a full payroll tax suspension.
That means no FICA taxes will be taken from both employees and employers.
These taxes are punishing, regressive taxes that no progressive should ever support.
And, of course, the Tea Party is against any tax.
So I expect full bipartisan support on this proposal.
Suspending these taxes adds hundreds of dollars a month to the incomes of people working for a living. This is big money, not just a few pennies as in previous measures.
These are the people doing the real work.
Allowing them to take home more of their pay supports their good efforts.
Right now take home pay is barely enough to pay for food, rent, and gasoline, with not much left over. When government stops taking FICA taxes out of their pockets, they’ll be able to get back to more normal levels of spending.
And many will be able to better make their mortgage payments and their car payments,
which, by the way, is what the banks really want- people who can make their payments.
That’s the bottom up way to fix the banks, and not the top down bailouts we’ve done in the past.
And the payroll tax holiday is also for business, which reduces costs for business, which, through competition, helps keep prices down for all of us. Which means our dollars buy more than otherwise.
So a full payroll tax holiday means more take home pay for people working for a living,
and lower costs for business to help keep prices and inflation down,
so sales can go up and we can finally create those 20 million private sector jobs we desperately need.
My second proposal is for a one time $150 billion Federal revenue distribution to the 50 state governments with no strings attached.
This will help the states to fill the financial hole created by the recession,
and stay afloat while the sales and jobs recovery spurred by the payroll tax holiday
restores their lost revenues.
Again, I expect bipartisan support.
The progressives will support this as it helps the states sustain essential services,
and the Tea Party believes money is better spent at the state level than the federal level.
My third proposal does not involve a lot of money, but it’s critical for the kind of recovery that fits our common vision of America.
My third proposal is for a federally funded $8/hr transition job for anyone willing and able to work, to help the transition from unemployment to private sector employment.
The problem is employers don’t like to hire the unemployed, and especially the long term unemployed. While at the same time, with the payroll tax holiday and the revenue distribution to the states,business is going to need to hire all the people it can get. The federally funded transition job allows the unemployed to get a transition job, and show that they are willing and able to go to work every day, which makes them good candidates for graduation to private sector employment.
Again, I expect this proposal to also get solid bipartisan support.
Progressives have always known the value of full employment,
while the Tea Party believes people should be able to work for a living, rather than collect unemployment.
Let me add here that nothing in these proposals expands the role or scope of the federal government.
The payroll tax holiday is a cut of a regressive, punishing tax,
that takes the government’s hand out of the pockets of both workers and business.
The revenue distribution to the states has no strings attached.
The federal government does nothing more than write a check.
And the transition job is designed to move the unemployed, who are in fact already in the public sector, to private sector jobs.
There is no question that these three proposals will drive the increase in sales we need to
usher in a new era of prosperity and full employment.
The remaining concern is the federal budget deficit.
Fortunately, with the bad news of the downgrade of US Treasury securities by Standard and Poors to AA+ from AAA, a very important lesson was learned.
Interest rates actually came down. And substantially.
And with that the financial and economic heavy weights from the 4 corners of the globe
made a very important point.
The markets are telling us something we should have known all along.
The US is not Greece for a very important reason that has been overlooked.
That reason is, the US federal government is the issuer of its own currency, the US dollar.
While Greece is not the issuer of the euro.
In fact, Greece, and all the other euro nations, have put themselves in the position of the US states. Like the US states, Greece and other euro nations are not the issuer of the currency that they spend. So they can run out of money and go broke, and are dependent on being able to tax and borrow to be able to spend.
But the issuer of its own currency, like the US, Japan, and the UK,
can always pay their bills.
There is no such thing as the US running out of dollars.
The US is not dependent on taxes or borrowing to be able to make all of its dollar payments.
The US federal government can not go broke like Greece.
That was the important lesson of the S&P downgrade,
and everyone has seen it up close and personal and they all now agree.
And now they all know why, with the deficit at record high levels, interest rates remain at record low levels.
Does that mean we should spend without limit and not tax at all?
Absolutely not!
Too much spending and not enough taxing will surely drive up prices and inflation.
But it does mean that right now,
with unemployment sky high and an economy on the verge of another recession,
we can immediately enact my 3 proposals to bring us back to
a strong economy with good jobs for people who want them.
And some day, if somehow there are too many jobs and it’s causing an inflation problem,
we can then take the measures needed to cool things down.
But meanwhile, as they say, to get out of hole we need to stop digging,
and instead implement my 3 proposals.
So in conclusion, let me repeat these three, simple, direct, bipartisan proposals
for a speedy recovery:
A full payroll tax holiday for employees and employers
A one time revenue distribution to the states
And an $8/hr transition job for anyone willing and able to work to facilitate
the transition from unemployment to private sector employment as the economy recovers.
Thank you.
This is a fine speech. The visionary economic proposals in it will create full employment and, within a year, end the balance-sheet recession we’ve been experiencing for nearly three years now. The problem with it is not the economics. It is that it will require deficit spending and also will be seen as requiring new borrowing and increasing the national debt.
However, since passing the ARA in early 2009, President Obama, along with many of his appointees and a seemingly endless stream of blue dog Democrats and Hooverian Republicans have worked as hard as they can to persuade us that the US has a deficit problem, is running out of money, and cannot afford the massive deficit spending that may be required to restore full employment.
There is no such problem; but, also, there is no time to educate the public about this between now and September 8th. What the President needs to do instead, if he wants to pass a jobs program that will work, is to DEMONSTRATE that there is no deficit/debt problem we have to be worried about and that only problem is Congress legislating his program. In short, he needs to change the financial reality providing the background of Congressional action in few days. That reality now says that the US owes $14.5 TriIlion to creditors and is failing to reduce this amount, and also doesn’t have enough money in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to cover massive deficit spending and create jobs. He needs, in contrast, to create a reality where he has paid down a substantial portion of the debt, and had enough money in the TGA to cover all the spending he proposes without further borrowing. The president can and must create that kind of reality. Here are the steps:
A. Mint a platinum coin with face value of $60 Trillion, deposit it in the U. S. Mint’s Public Enterprise Fund (PEF) Account at the Fed, then have Treasury “sweep” the difference between the cost of minting the coin and its face value into the TGA.
B. Immediately pay off the $6.2 trillion owed by the Federal Government to the Federal Reserve Bank, the various Government Agency Trust funds, among them Social Security and debts to other Government Agencies.
C. Pay off the non-Government sector debt, as it comes due using Proof Platinum Coin Seigniorage (PPCS) revenue when necessary. Since the estimated cost is about $300 Billion paid off per month; we can expect another $1 Trillion to be paid off by the end of the year leaving a national debt of about $7.1 Trillion, with a bit less than $53 Trillion still left in the TGA.
D. Pay for any 2011 spending not covered by taxes between now and the end of the year, estimated at about $600 Billion, using the credits in the TGA, rather than issuing debt.
The function of minting the high face value proof platinum coin, filling the Federal purse using PPCS, and beginning to pay off the national debt quickly, is to demonstrate dramatically that there is no US solvency problem, nor any debt and/or deficit reduction problem.
Issuing the coin and getting the Fed to issue $60 Trillion in credits to Treasury, will demonstrate exactly that, and blow any justification for austerity and spending cuts out of the water. The Republicans won’t be able to spin that; and without a plausible claim that austerity is necessary, the drive to take hostages and force austerity on America will evaporate. Within a few weeks we will have a new political discourse, and no more excuses for not getting people back to work.
On the other hand, if the President doesn’t take these steps. Then it doesn’t matter how great his speech is, or how “big” he goes, he will fail again because he will have done nothing to change the perceptions people have of the underlying trade-offs we face.
(Cross-posted from Correntewire).



16 Comments

Wonderful and timely advice.
However, Obama is relentlessly applying the shock doctrine to destroy the labor movement and eviscerate the safety net.
Recommended, as usual.
Fuck it, at this point why the fuck not?
This IMHO is a shite plan. Full of shite. Based on shite. Producing nothing but shite.
But why the fuck not?
1. That FICA that people take home now will not really make that much of a difference. Most won’t really feel it. And, more importantly, based on your premise, people will NOT go out and spend AT THE LEVEL that your premise requires.
But why the fuck not?
2. “This will help the states to fill the financial hole created by the recession,
and stay afloat while the sales and jobs recovery spurred by the payroll tax holiday
restores their lost revenues.” So? Will they hire new workers? Fuck no. They want to fire public workers. Sorry that your idea doesn’t jive with reality. They are corporatists. Their corporate masters have demanded austerity, and pain and suffering for the masses. They have complied. Their corporate masters also hate public workers. Thus the corporatists have complied. So this will do what exactly? “fill the financial hole”? And why the fuck would they want to do that? They want the financial hole. So they can fire public workers. So they can sell public land and resources to their corporate masters for pennies on the dollar. So they can sell public buildings for pennies and then be forced to lease it back for much much more, all paid by taxpayers. That won’t change.
You expect bipartisan support from the masses, and you might get it. Doesn’t change the fact that the corporate paws masquerading as “leaders” and representatives will agree. Oh these “leaders” will accept the money alright. And then give the rich and corporations all of that money. ALL OF IT!!!
3. $8/hour job??? Are you fucking kidding me. That’s hat they’re trying to prevent. And they will just say it’s another government handout. So one side will bitch and moan and prevent this. You will NOT get bipartisanship support on that. That’s just crazy talk. “You’ve been living in a dream world Neo”.
And the corporations aren’t going to like it. They want slaves competitive with Chinese slaves. The only way to do that is to incarcerate as many people as possible, and make them do work for no pay and no benefits. Now that’s competitive.
No offense is meant, but WTF? If you think any of these ideas will work, well … you know honestly, I don’t fucking care, why the fuck not?
Sorry this pissed you off so much. All i’m trying to do is to point out that O can take unilateral action that will make it plain to people that there’s no financial excuse for not putting people back to work. i know we’re dealing with a bunch of bastards who just want us to die quickly. But unmasking them is a valuable thing to do, because one day we will be needing to hold people accountable and reverse the looting of the past 40 years.
A $60 trillion-dollar coin? In mint, proof condition? Yowza, what would its numismatic value be?
Where would it go, Ft. Knox? Do we have enough F-22′s to protect it? (Hey, is Ft. Knox well protected? Ya never hear about that.)
Idea #1 is to permanently unfund Social Security and Medicare!
What a fucking moron!
it’s nunismatic value is irrelevant. it’s fiat money, and used as above will leave more than $50T in the TGA. The coin doesn’t need to be protected. It goes into a Fed vault. if anyone steals it, that will be obvious, so it cannot be successfully stolen.
You’re the FM, since, with the ability to produce $60t coins it becomes plain that the GOV can pay for SS in perpetuity.
On funding SS see: http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2010/11/by-stephanie-kelton-i-woke-up-this.html
Hey, lets,
Mosler is not clear in the speech what the $8 jobs do and who runs that. And he doesn’t say, in the speech, though he has elsewhere, what happens to the programs supported by the Trust Funds that are no longer getting payroll taxes. Lots of economists would agree that these trust funds or programs should be supported by other means that are not regressive, but they usually explain what they do.
I know that you know the answer, and you provide a mechanism for the latter lower in the post, but it’s odd that Mosler didn’t include some explanation in the speech. That puts the Prez in the position of saying something that, on its face, to the Beltway bozos, looks detached from the reality as CW defies it, and that’s how I predict they’d report it. “Obama proposes to print unlimited money to fund government, ignores inflation risk.”
You know that’s not the case, but still, it just leaves the Prez hanging out there and subject to merciless attack for being delusional.
Is the $60 trillion amount your idea or Moslers? I understand what you’re doing, but why that number, instead of 10 or 5?
Thanks John, i’ll suggest thaat Warren reply to you directly. The $60 T is my number. I arrived at it by calculating how much it would take to pay off the national debt of $14.5 T and also cover the likely gap between Government spending and tax revenues through 2025. I also arrived at it because I wanted to replace the current fiscal reality of bond issuance before deficit spending with a new fiscal reality of having plenty of money available in the TGA to perform all spending needed for all progressive programs without recourse to selling bonds.
On “printing money” and inflation. MMTers reject krugman’s reasoning about this and think his modeling of the causal mechanisms involved is very low quality.
Have you been following Randy Wray’s current series on inflation nd hyperinflation? I think it’s key event in this whole debate. It’a appearing here:
http://www.economonitor.com/lrwray/
and is in process.
Thank for your continuing interest. i know that it’s sincere and that your mind is open. if MMT can meet the inflation objections; i know you will be with us.
Hi,
First, the FICA suspension (hopefully permanent- it’s too regressive to ever bring back) will add maybe something over 600 billion to income and savings annually from current levels. That’s a reasonably serious add to aggregate demand, and with the savings and income already added by the current deficits of the last few years which have already gone a long way towards rebalancing personal balance sheets of those who still have ok paying jobs, sales and jobs should come back in short order.
As for the trust funds, the way to keep the accounting ‘straight’ is to have the tsy make the payments for us, which keeps those numbers where they would otherwise be. And the only ‘assets’ of social security are tsy securities in any case, as it’s all nothing more than a promise to pay, which is all govt can do. Govt. can’t ‘store’ its own currency of issue any more than the score keeper at a card game can store points for the players.
In other words, social security payments are not operationally constrained by revenues any more than the defense department is. Govt makes all payments by instructing the Fed to credit member bank accounts. it’s just data entry on its own books. there’s no other way to do it.
Joe’s coin proposal is meant to remove the appearance that the govt is dependent on borrowing to spend. To me that’s a bit like making soybeans to look like steak to be more palatable to people who otherwise like meat, or something like that.
In any case there is no solvency issue for govt, which all now agree after the down grade by s and p and subsequent drop in rates and expert testimony about how s and p was wrong because the US is the issuer of the currency. So the knowledge that the US isn’t Greece has the hawks largely quiet, as invoking Greece was the driving force behind deficit reduction. Without Greece they’ve lost that, and haven’t quite figured out how to replace it. For now the deficit reduction movement is just moving on momentum left over from a discredited rationale. And if they are thinking to invoking inflation as a reason for deficit reduction, good luck to them. I’ve yet to see an inflation forecast that would intimidate congress into cutting social security and medicare once they realize it’s not about ‘running out of money’ etc.
As for leaving the President hanging out there, I’ll gladly handle the q and a for him as his new senior economic adviser and set them all straight.
Also, for Lambert, the $8/hr job is just a transition job. With the full payroll tax holiday and distributions to the states, there will very soon be employers trying to hire more people than there are available for work, apart from the longer term unemployed. They only get hired, for the most part, if they can show the world they can be punctual, clean, agreeable, etc. and get a good reverence from their supervisor, friends, etc. which the transition job allows them to accomplish. It’s worked very well in Argentina and India for example.
To place them I’d first allow all existing govt agencies to add as many transition job employees as they could hire at the $8 wage (plus health care, but i also have a universal health care proposal on my website) to help them out. I would also extend this to the states, with the wage paid by the feds. Beyond that several of us have written about possible useful tasks for those employed in these transition jobs.
thanks,
Warren Mosler
http://www.moslereconomics.com
well, that’s the myth.
the reality is to “fund” those programs the same way the pentagon is funded. (*)
i don’t hear anyone talking about the the pentagon’s unfunded entitlements or saying the pentagon is going to go broke…. :)
(*) note: medicare part B and part D are not in the same “funding” boad as SS. from stephanie kelton:
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2011/04/4-trust-fund-3-problems-why-is-other.html
just want to emphasize this bit from warren’s comment:
this was the real lesson from the s&p downgrade (not the so-called threat to obama, the real lesson was why there was no threat at all).
even with explanation, lots of people, and not just beltway bozos (see krugman), still have said some of the darnedest things.
Great. The “U R Doin It All Rong” and “Gated Community” crew is back in force.
Not sure to whom this is directed. There is a legitimate and worthwhile discussion about how to understand (and create policies for) periods of economic stress, deficit spending, inflation, and so on. FDL has always provided a haven where this discussion can take place. Advocates have participated here in good faith and with intellectual honesty.
Sorry Kelly. This one went over my head. But considering Scarecrow’s comment, I guess I missed some implication he saw.