This post concludes my critical evaluation of Dylan Matthews’s, post published on Ezra Klein’s blog called “You know the deficit hawks. Now meet the deficit owls.”
Dylan’s post is in some ways typical of what one finds in WaPo these days. What was once a proud example of journalism has descended into a “he said/she said” format with only two sides to every question and a kind of parroting back of talking points the journalist or columnist constructs which she/he believes are associated with the two sides. Dylan’s article addresses the question of what we ought to do about the deficit by viewing it from the perspective of the deficit hawks vs. the deficit owls. However, there aren’t just deficit hawks and deficit owls in the economic aviary. There are also deficit doves as well.
Matthews ignores that position as a distinct one, even though he cites a deficit dove like Paul Krugman when it suits his purpose. So what is the deficit dove position? How does it differ from the other two? We don’t know based on his post. But there are MMT posts on this subject that Dylan might have and I think should have, researched.
In addition, the ping-pong talking point format of the post leaves one with a very superficial analysis of what hawks and owls and different people believe. The excuse for this, of course, will be lack of space in a short blog form. But that doesn’t change the fact that even though the journalist or writer involved makes an attempt to be neutral toward the contending parties, no real objectivity involving a deep understanding of the contending positions is presented. Only caricatures on the incomplete fair critical comparison set of positions survive the journalistic malpractice of faux objectivity.
Reading the post, you get the impression that MMT questions the mainstream with very distinct and opposed policy positions, and that the mainstream has counter-arguments to MMT. But you really can’t get any sense of the underlying deficit hawk, deficit dove, deficit owl reasoning behind their policy positions.
You don’t learn that the hawks are viewing the Government from the viewpoint that it is like a giant household, and that some of the doves share that perspective.
You don’t learn that the hawks often claim that the Government can run out of money.
You don’t learn that the hawks accept the Quantity Theory of Money, or that both hawks and doves, but not the owls believe in the existence of an Inter-temporal Governmental Budgetary Constraint (IGBC) on spending.
And most important of all you don’t learn about the Sectoral Financial Balances (SFB) Model, and how it works from the hawk, dove, and owl points of view.
In other words, from reading the Matthews piece you don’t learn anything about the depth of the owl position, relative to the others, and you also don’t get an impression that Dylan really understands the deficit owl position, and that he is capable of assessing with reasonable fairness how well it stands up to the criticism from the hawk or mainstream approaches.
So, in the end, even though people who like MMT were very happy to have the coverage from WaPo, and very happy that the post was relatively friendly as these things go, I think we have to conclude that Dylan’s wasn’t a good post, but another indication of WaPo’s decline as a paper of record. Nor am I alone in having a negative view of this post. Michael Hudson has recorded a strong reaction to it, as well, in a note to Stephanie Kelton which was blogged at Mike Norman Economics by Tom Hickey.
So, I call for WaPo to try again. People need an MMT post from WaPo written by one of the MMT leaders, alongside parallel posts from leading deficit hawks like David Walker and deficit doves like Paul Krugman, Jared Bernstein, or Dean Baker, with a concluding post recording extensive debates among the representatives of the major approaches. If we had that then all of the readers of The Post would be better able to judge for themselves which approach has the most to offer in the way of policies for setting our economy on a course that doesn’t waste people and that is culturally, socially, politically, economically, and environmentally sustainable in the foreseeable future. I’m sure that’s what we all want, but I’m afraid that this opening bid on MMT by WaPo didn’t get us very far down the road toward that result.
Having said all this about what was wrong with Dylan’s post, however, I will now end on a positive note, which perhaps explains why so many MMT supporters have a positive view of the post. There’s one very important and very beneficial thing that Dylan Matthews did that deserves a real shout-out!
For many years now, MMT economists and others who write in support of them have been trying to make a very important point to the mainstream. And that is that the claim:
The Government is running out of money,
is a myth, a fairy tale, or a deadly innocent fraud.
Dylan doesn’t say that in so many words. But he and the economists he cites, even Greg Mankiw grant this very important MMT/deficit owl point in passing.
If this post is any indication, mainstream economics, and certainly deficit doves, and hawks like Mankiw, now acknowledge that a nation like the US which is sovereign in its own fiat currency can never run out of money, or be prevented by the pure fiscal aspects of any situation from paying its debts or buying whatever goods and/or services it needs that are available for sale in its own sovereign currency.
So, that part of the great debate is now over. It will be very hard from here on, for the deficit hawks to maintain their deficit/insolvency terrorism in the face of the general recognition in economics that the Federal Government is not like a household, because it can never run out of the currency that it has the sole legitimate power to issue.
If they try, they will now be the ones facing ridicule and marginalization. And, increasingly, those politicians who try to claim we are running out of money, will also face ridicule and be viewed as ignoramuses by others.
That may not bother many of the Republicans coming from districts resistant to the realities of modern life. But, increasingly, “serious people” in Washington will stop repeating the myth about coming insolvency and move on.
Dylan’s post already does that by assuming that the real issue about MMT vs. the mainstream isn’t about solvency, but about excessive deficit spending causing either inflation or hyperinflation. Every critic of MMT cited in the post raises the objection either implicitly or explicitly that MMT policy proposals will lead to worrisome inflation, or hyperinflation. Now, that’s progress, because unlike the level of one’s national debt, or the size of one’s deficit in the abstract, or the nonsense debt-to-GDP ratio, which means nothing in itself, inflation is a real issue, not an artifact of some economist’s fevered theories.
More generally, the real issue is the generalized consequences of Federal fiscal policies and the programs associated with them. They have employment consequences, inflation/deflation consequences, environmental consequences, safety net consequences, medical consequences, educational consequences, inequality consequences, climatological consequences and all the rest. The position of MMT is that alternative fiscal policies need to be evaluated in terms of our best estimation of their impacts on our societies, cultures, polities, environments, and futures, and not in terms of their narrow, purely fiscal impacts on present and future Federal budgets.
Changes in unemployment and in inflation are two such real impacts, but we need to go beyond them to other real impacts. We need to evaluate the whole thing. Let the hawks put forward their budgets, and the doves theirs, and we owls will put forward ours, and then let everyone evaluate what consequences are likely for all of the alternatives, and which alternative is best overall in terms of real consequences and in terms of public purpose and not in terms of arbitrary debt, deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio targets, that, in themselves have no meaning for people.
In other words, let’s get real. Let’s talk about real problems of real people that can be alleviated through fiscal policy and Government programs. Let’s stop taking about fairy tales, myths, and bogeymen. And let’s get on with the job of rebuilding the United States for our children and grandchildren and using every tool we have, including our fiat currency system, to realize the blessings of liberty and equality of opportunity for everyone.
(Cross-posted from Correntewire.com



15 Comments

You’re more confident than I am. Every economist has long acknowledged that the U.S. government has a printing press somewhere by which it can issue as much new money as it pleases. But in the next breath, they’ll insist that we have to borrow money to “remain solvent.” Visibly, both statements cannot be true, but they make them side by side without apology. Here for example is Krugman in a NYT editorial entitled “What are Taxes For?”:
Given that the U.S. government has the ability to issue an unlimited amount of money, concern over solvency is lunacy. The remaining concerns are financial stability (especially preventing unacceptable levels of inflation) and standard of living of the population.
There is one and only one reason to collect taxes, namely to give the dollar value (i.e., to fight inflation). And, it does so in two ways: by diminishing the supply of dollars and by reducing the demand for goods and services. And Krugman seems incapable of accepting that simple and obvious fact.
Izabella Kaminska has this up at Yves’ house. Maybe you’ve seen it, but I thought I’d bring it over, and ask if her take is…right.
I thought the simple key she mentions as crucial to understanding MMT might be worth trying to grasp…if it’s so.
In any event, the chart is cool. ;o)
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/izabella-kaminska-why-mmt-is-like-an-autostereogram.html
Thanks. I particularly like the first paragraph:
The most succinct way to explain and to understand chartalism (MMT) is to think of a dollar as a transferable tax credit. People exchange assets and services for dollars, because they have to pay their taxes.
Another way is to imagine that the government burns every dollar it borrows or collects in taxes, fees, etc. And to imagine that it pays for all of its spending with freshly printed/minted money. What difference would that make, so long as the amounts all stayed the same? The governments books would look a bit different, but that would be all.
http://mattrognlie.com/2011/04/29/mmt-fallacie/#comment-148
Interesting site.
Seems the MMT folks understand long term rates – and the option pricing techniques that have been used for 35 years – better than opponents. But this is a minor point.
I may have missed the response to:
But as long as the government issues both bonds and money, the same logic doesn’t apply to money. In most ways, bonds and money are equivalent assets—they’re both ultimately claims on the government. The only differences are that (1) bonds pay interest and (2) money has additional liquidity properties that bonds lack. In equilibrium, these two have to precisely cancel out: the nominal interest rate on bonds must be such that the marginal investor, adjusting his portfolio between bonds and money, is exactly indifferent between the liquidity benefits from money and the higher returns from bonds. This constraint is impossible to escape, and thus the government can only choose nominal interest rates and the supply of base money jointly—there’s a one-to-one correspondence between the two, meaning that you can’t choose them both separately. ….But since at the margin, the liquidity benefits of such vast sums of money would be nil, this necessitates a nominal interest rate close to zero. And then the government would just be paying “interest” in a different way: rather than explicitly paying out to investors, it would see the real value of its obligations increase through deflation. …..there isn’t enough demand for reserves to be fiscally relevant. Before interest on reserves, electronic reserves were at roughly $10 billion—this incorporated the demand from the need to pay tax liabilities and from other transactions in the economy. Debt held by the public, meanwhile, is approaching $10 trillion—literally a thousand times larger. How can we hold any sizable percentage of debt in the form of reserve balances without pushing interest rates down to zero (or whatever rate we’re paying on reserves)? I just don’t see the demand. This is the key question: how are you going to convince banks to hold even $1 trillion in reserve balances when they already only need $10 billion to conduct all their transactions? …..the govt CAN’T avoid issuing bonds or paying interest on reserve balances if the Fed wants a positive interest rate target. It’s not operationally possible (thus, the “no bonds” proposal of several MMT’ers assumes interest payment on reserves or a zero interest rate target–preferably the latter)……In terms of accommodating a deficit through base money, the fact is that the government has the option of creating interest paying bank reserves as an alternative to issuing bonds. ….
From the above one concludes the the eating away of future economic activity because the gov must pay more and more as interest is not solved by MMT and issuing a coin or two and ignoring the level of the deficit. Paying interest to banks on reserves is not that different from paying interest to the rich and their bond fund investments.
Or am I missing something? (it it would be the first time that happened in the last 5 minutes – if my reduced short term memory is working :-) )
weird logic –
if the growing problem is interest on debt that will be greater than 100% of taxation for our grandkids, then it does not seem to be “taking something for nothing” to run a surplus as said at the CNBC per her post
Or perhaps growing debt is not a problem as per MMT as the nominal rate paid goes to zero – and deflation robs the kids of their value of the assets they inherited.
I don’t know the answer – and it is not clear to me that her “chart” approach does not ignore what is going on via money created by banks making loans (which is how 90% of money is created) – or I once again am mis-understanding the post (always a possibility).
Hi wigwam, I agree that Dr. K was inconsistent in the above post. I was pretty hard on it at the time. But, bu now I think more realize that you can’t say there’s a solvency problem, and then in the next breath say there is one because of inflation. That’s just poor statement of what the problem is. There’s no solvency problem. But, there may, sometimes, be an inflation problem. So let’s discuss that. That’s the framing that makes sense.
On the reasons for taxing, I think you’ve ignored the greater economic equality rationale, which, in turn, is related to the notion that excessive concentration of wealth is a danger to democracy. MMT people rarely mention this reason. I always mention it. The rich are too rich, not because it’s proper to envy their their money; but because it’s perfectly proper to fear its use for speculation increasing macroeconomic risk, and its use for buying office holders and shaping national opinion in ways that are favorable for legislation subverting markets and allowing them to get still richer as a result.
I thought her chart was really cool, and that her narrative was really a good way of explaining things. (Note that her piece originally appeared in the financial times here: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/22/892201/why-mmt-is-like-an-autostereogram/ ) Also, the chart is based on Scott Fullwiler’s previous work with labels and arrows added by Stephanie Kelton who is credited at FT for the chart. Also, Izabella’s post has now appeared at NEP too: http://www.neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/02/why-mmt-is-like-autostereogram.html
My only concern about the post comes from here:
That is, if you buy the MMT view, then most fiat currency sovereign Governments in the world today don’t have enough money (which is a form of Government credit) out there in the right hands to enable full employment. Also, the MMT point of view on this is that Governments ought to be creating increased effective demand through the usual MMT policy framework, including Job Guarantees to directly target and achieve full employment (all but frictional unemployment of 1 – 2% eliminated).
So, on balance I don’t think Izabella understands MMT quite yet. But is very close, and very talented in her writing.
I’ll have to think about this very good question. But my first reaction is that the Government only has to pay interest on reserves if it wants the FFR to be greater than zero. As far as the banks holding reserve balances is concerned, I don’t think the banks have a choice in the matter. If the Government spends by just creating money, then the accounts of private sector people or foreign sector nations who get that money are marked up and the banks must hold the reserves created in their banks. Whether they can do anything with those reserves is also up to the Government. All the Fed has to do to control the reserve level is to raise the required reserve levels that banks must hold. So, again, this is determined by the Government, and not the market.
Finally, I didn’t understand the logic of this:
“From the above one concludes the the eating away of future economic activity because the gov must pay more and more as interest is not solved by MMT and issuing a coin or two and ignoring the level of the deficit. Paying interest to banks on reserves is not that different from paying interest to the rich and their bond fund investments.”
Why must one conclude that the Government must pay higher and higher interest on reserves as time goes on or issue bonds. Why can’t the Government just require the banks to hold the reserves? Or if not, why do we need private sector banking at all. What use functions do the private banks perform that couldn’t be performed more effectively by Government-owned banks?
I don’t see the relationship you’re assuming exists between bond interest and deflation. If the Federal Government keeps injecting NFA into the private sector, there will be no deflation. Also, keep in mind that while the banks create money, they don’t create NFA. Only the Federal Government can do that through deficit spending. It’s the difference between horizontal and vertical money. See: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=11218
LOL! Yes, I noticed all the other publication venues. I just thought if *you* thought that her *simplest of (potentially) grokkable concepts* were…er…pretty valid, I might attempt to bank them into my hard head, or at least read them enough times that they might soak into me like I do theoretical physics. ;o)
I truly appreciate all your hard work on our behalves, lets, even if…well…I don’t get much of it.
The assumption is that there must be value holding reserves/money or folks/banks will refuse to do so – so if there is no interest then there must be deflation that makes that money more valuable than other assets.
I agree the gov can force the holding of reserves – I was approaching the idea via voluntary or chasing an incentive motivation. Much of the discussion on that site involved rational decisions based on motivation.
If forced the whole point goes away – except the banks will fail if they have to pay much interest of those ever increasing reserve costs, or they must get more from loans – not always a good result – and not one that the FED is used to using/controlling at this level.
I agree with you on that one. In fact, I favor a 100% inheritance tax in order to incentivize the offspring of the wealthy to contribute their talents to the nation’s labor pool.
Thanks, Wendy. I’ll keep writing until everyone gets it.
The Fed can target zero for as long as it wants. Also, what do the banks do for us that we need? Their speculation puts us at risk. Their mortgage frauds destroy respect for the law. And their credit card charges are like a very heavy tax that the middle class, having bought into the system now must pay.