There isn’t really any bi-partisanship, but what if we took one repub idea and one dem idea and combined them. Start with this idea from repub Lamar Alexander:
… make 30-year mortgages with a fixed interest rate of 4 to 4.5 percent available to new homebuyers or existing homeowners who want to refinance. Alexander estimates the average homeowner would shave more than $400 a month off their mortgage under the plan.
I think the interest rate should be a bit higher, probably 5.5%, but we would extend the term somewhat if the borrower wanted to, which would also lower the payment. That might lower the amount of benefit somewhat, but will decrease the cost of the bill.
We combine this idea with a serious Chapter 13 cramdown bill. That bill just went through mark-up in the House, where several amendments were added, one of which requires the owner to share any gains in the sale of the home during the first five years with the lender. This bill currently calls for a market interest rate plus a "risk premium". We get rid of that to equalize interest rates. That seems fair enough.
Look what that would do. The cash from refinancings goes to the holders of the mortgage notes. Some of that money will go to banks that hold mortgages, and will add a good bit to their capital. Most of the money would go directly to collateralized mortgage obligations, those pools of mortgages that are sliced and diced. No consent is required of the owner investors. They get paid and they are out. I realize that a lot of these notes have huge prepayment penalties, so those just get trashed by legislation, or maybe we charge a small fee to the current holder for removing the risk they face. That will remove a big chunk of the collateral from the pools, and will leave behind the notes that have problems.
Those people who don’t meet the refinancing rules go to Chapter 13 and write down their mortgages to the then current fair value of their homes. That fixes their mortgages. As I have pointed out elsewhere, they should be able to make the payments because they are wiping out a lot of other debt in their bankruptcy.
Any mortgages which can’t be fixed by one of these methods is probably truly trash. That means that the fair value of the pool is the discounted cash flow from repaired mortgages plus a something for the actual value of the collateral in the trash. It should be a lot easier and cheaper to price this remnant, and it can be sold for whatever it will bring.
This will clarify the balance sheets of the giant banks. It doesn’t deal with the stupidly large credit default swap portfolios these dolts bought and sold. But it’s a good start.
Next, we evaluate the banks and their remaining portfolios. If the value isn’t there, we explain to the bondholders about their exchange of debt for equity. We offer several options, different combinations of common stock, preferred stock, or maybe some subordinated debt that would count as equity for regulatory purposes. Then, if the balance sheet isn’t going to work, we either close the bank or add capital in exchange for equity at a fair price.
Now let’s see how this looks to the public. Pretty much everyone who has a mortgage sees the monthly payment drop. For those who were able to make their current payment, it will be easier to pay other debts and maybe even put some aside for retirement or the kids education. The bankruptcy provisions make it possible for even more people to reorganize themselves, and thus survive this mess.
Every time I post something on the bankruptcy amendment, a couple of people point out how unfair it is. Here’s an example. Two families buy houses in the same neighborhood for the same price. One has overreached, overspent. Eventually they file Chapter 13, and cramdown the mortgage and the interest rate, and get rid of a bunch of other debt. Now they have their house substantially cheaper than the other family that did the right thing.
Under the bipartisan plan, the family that did the right thing also benefits, and can’t complain about the benefit to the other family. Both families are in better shape. Both are now able to contribute to the economy.
Finally, the government eventually will sell the refinanced mortgages. They should be clean, and easily priced. That makes the whole thing reasonably cheap, compared to some of the rest of the alternatives.
See, bi-partisan can be sensible.



37 Comments







nice post, I agree with most of this however I believe the banks should be forced to take current market value of the home if the purchased value is not saleable
I would also be willing to give some kind of partnership on a sale if the home is sold for more then the appraised value since it was re-assessed down
that would be opt in or out, if the homeowner wanted a re-appraised value they would have to submit to profit sharing
So now becuase of massive criminal negligence in the financial industry, I’m maintaining my house for the benfit of the Fed. Oh, That’s so fair.
And all that had won equity I put down? Gone.
“that would be opt in or out, if the homeowner wanted a re-appraised value they would have to submit to profit sharing”
Thanks, but no thanks. It’s mine, you caused fraud, no, you won’t benefit. And even then I’d go to the mat with such a program, and call it a contract entered into under duress. And I’d probably win.
masaccio
What do you make of the $15,000 buyers credit?
Indeed, also check out Dean Baker’s post which I linked your post in the comments.
Also, as a Michigan native, what did you think of this? (it’s supposed to be snarky)
Mostly I feel gipped. I live in Ann Arbor, and we didn’t get the warning–though all of us in the room were screaming that he’d have a spot on TV.
But you shouldn’t raise these things in masaccio’s diary, bc we stole his defensive coordinator, so he’s a little cross about the Lions.
I’m not mad about Schwartz, ou know I value parity above all, and the Lions need it.
I think the $15,000 tax credit is a lousy idea. Most of the people who get it are able to buy anyway. Suppose you are moving for your job. You sell your house, and buy another. You have the down payment, and the $15,000 is a gift.
For some first time buyers, it might make a difference, mostly because it makes them feel a bit more secure in the purchase. Most first time buyers need a big down payment, and are depleting assets to buy, so the thought that they might recoup may help some of them. Note that it only helps people who are paying $15,000 in taxes that year, because it is a credit.
Schwartz is a Baltimore native and a really good guy. He would come on the radio here and break down opponents of the Ravens on a Friday afternoon, even though we are supposed to be mortal enemies (besides the Steelers, that is)
I also have to say that everyone I’ve talked to who actually went to Nashville for that playoff game says that Titans fans are the nicest fans in the NFL towards opponents.
How Dubai is dealing with the housing crisis.
Hehe. I feel so much sympathy…. not. Isn’t that the country where Halliburton moved its HQ to, in order to stay above-the-law and taxfree?
We need to start calling these financial instruments by their correct name. These subprime ‘mortgages’ were and are leases with tax benefits.
Recognizing this might clear some of our thinking about them.
Not even as good as a lease. One is renting from the bank and maintaing the property at one’s own expense.
Special Comment” By KO ripping Darth!! Woo Hoo!
We combine this idea with a serious Chapter 13 cramdown bill. That bill just went through mark-up in the House, where several amendments were added, one of which requires the owner to share any gains in the sale of the home during the first five years with the lender.
If you share the gain, share the costs. The commercial property cram down in none of this “now your in bed with the fed” bs. Otherwise take the damn house. “Produce the Note”.
Darth has a new “a**hooooooooooooooooooole”.
I am on board with the idea, except I think have the Feds write the mortgage loans at 3%.
That is a better rate than they are paying on Treasuries, and if you have the Feds do the re-finances and purchases at a 3% rate for really creditworthy folks, if offsets the trash that is being picked up under TARP (especially, as you said, once the only thing left in the CMOs is the irredeemable junk).
why isn’t this simple?: legislation should require to banks’ mortgage offers to work-out solutions for defaultees on a case-by-case basis, and ultimate net cost to the banks of those work-outs should be borne by the TARP bailout fund. No other use of the fund’s corporate welfare payments should be permitted until 5,000,000 mortgages are resolved (based on the average non-recoverable loss per mortgage of $70,000 that’s been widely reported, and the $350 billion that isn’t been burned yet).
ugh.. sorry for the bad grammar above.. the dangers of FDLing on an iphone.
I agree that cramdowns and refinancing should be available to all homeowners. I think that some people who can’t make the terms should still be given an option to rent. I also think that this kind of re-organization of debt should be extended out to other modalities, credit card, student loan, etc.
TexBetsy (I know it’s ot, sorry) Did Cassie go to the Capitol to lobby for foster children’s law changes today?
http://www.mysanantonio.com/ne…..hange.html
I thought of her, of course, when I saw that piece. I had seen her Oxdown Diary, but not in real time. I would expect she’d make quite an impression on legislators.
Digg it!
Squat. Squat in your soon to be foreclosed homes until a legitimate note is produced.
Fight back. These people “lent” money to the mortgagees…and it is
“They” who have screwed up and unrealistically raised their mortgage interest rates through the roofs…and it is they who have valued your house way beyond its value and lured you into taking on debt…and it they that have lured the nation into the idea that the economy was thriving and that you would still have the means to pay your mortgage…all based on BS…a BS economy based on nothing…nada…niltch……and to the banks that have raised the credit card rates through the roofs without regulation….thereby scarfing off any other income the people might have to pay the bills they were lured into agreeing to…
This country has been raped by lies, smoke, and mirrors, by greedy usurpers….
Sit tight. Hold your seats. Sue the Mofos, and don’t back down!!!
Everybody stay in your homes until they prove that you owe them more than they owe you.
Fight back!!!!
$15,000 tax credit is a bad idea. We do not need prices to re-inflate because of market externalities which is what a one time tax boon would be.
The housing market needs to settle back to an equilibrium of median price = 3 times median income. Any incentives and artificially low interest rates will prevent that from happening.
Remember the “risk” in mortgage backed securities are twofold. First that the borrower will default, second that the borrower will re-fi. Re-financing takes income away from that pool that is why giving away inexpensive money at 4% to people who are current on their mortgage will never happen. While it makes the borrower whole and puts money back in the economy it does nothing for the investors.
in this environment, a $15,000 tax credit is just $15,000 into the bank as far as I’m concerned. I don’t understand why the banks can’t be forced to renegotiate, with losses funded by the remaining TARP monies. I know its politically impossible, but it makes eminent sense to me.
So….
Whose kids are ready to go out and put on a hardhat and hit the bridges and roads?????
Shoot. We’re gonna have to nationalize the banks AND the energy companies.
Think about how much money could be generated for the “economy” if you nationalize the oil companies and force them into green energy…
Heh…
Ain’t gonna happen…just jesting…
All of this will begin a new migration…elsewhere…to the next “streets of gold”.
Bush already primed the inflation pump by doubling the money supply over the past few months. These charts are a wake up call. I think lowering the interest rates would be good because it will be a symbolic gesture of empathy as the tidal wave hits. (Commercial markets are going to slam into the banks in a couple of months when the loans come due and the banks refuse to lend their precious bailout funds. There will be blood.)
We need to strengthen our communities first, and that is easing the pain of homeowners.
It is interesting how we Americans recently poured $140 billion into Citibank ($50 billion cash and the rest thru off-balance sheet Fed incentives, loans, and cash infusions), and the market cap today is only $19.35 billion!
God bless America. Where else could such a ruse be pulled off? Why didn’t the US just buy all of the outstanding shares at market prices and go forward with a truth commission like investigation? Once we own the company, we own the history. Then we can prosecute and maybe seize assets and get our money back.
Halliburton has a market cap of $16.4 billion. I think the USA should buy it so we can own the history and start prosecutions.
I thought interest rates were zero (can go no lower)?
I think you’ve nailed it.
Repeat, repeat, repeat.
Hey, wait a minute! I thought Harry Reid said the Senators were going to work through the night tonight. By 9:30pm tonight, the Senators left the building! What the hell.
I’m not at all surprised…
Typical Harry. Mitch must have pitched a hissy fit.
Something happened. I went to put some laundry in the washer and came back to an empty Senate. LOL
LOL
btw, teddy is upstairs
Dagnabit!!!! I hate getting mugged!!!
There may be some people who won’t refi as quickly as we might prefer and yet aren’t going bankrupt. Look at the HOPE for Homeowners program’s optional refi and how lousy that’s working. It’s a good idea, but the system is so screwed up that it still isn’t working.
You can’t expect options to work on your time-frame. That’s where the question of use of govt force to clear up these things has to be considered.