Most days, stock market coverage runs with headlines like “Stocks Fall on Greek Turmoil”, silly efforts to make sense of essentially random stuff. This New York Times article offers a different view of investors. It discusses the disappearance of retail investors and the steady decline in trading volumes since the Great Crash.
Many market experts say the biggest reason for the shrinking volume is that traders and investors remain leery that the economy will suddenly turn on them in the wake of the financial crisis, the wild swings in stock prices and the European debt troubles
Also, day traders got crushed in the Great Crash, and old people are switching to bonds, the usual recommendation for retirees. Pretty innocuous. The writers at Zerohedge have been discussing this issue for months, here for example. They offer an angrier take:
Another week of artificial stock rampage courtesy of a transitory, one-time $2 trillion liquidity spike (that is now ending, if only temporarily), and another week of retail investors refusing to be suckered in (and joining corporate insiders who just sold a record amount of their own stock).
They point out that money is flowing out of US equity mutual funds even faster than last year. That has turned around a bit since that post went up in March. Zerohedge is scornful of the pricing in the markets. Between high frequency trading and massive liquidity courtesy of the Fed, they think prices bear no relation to reality.
I’m with Zerohedge.The Fed’s quantitative easing program is designed to force people to take more risk to get higher returns. The idea is that when the market goes up, people feel wealthier and spend more money. So why is it a good idea for retirees to be making riskier investments? If the market goes up, they aren’t going to spend the money. When they lose money in the stock market, they become even more careful with their money.
Retirees as a group aren’t rich enough to matter anyway. According to the Federal Reserve Board’s 2009 Survey of Consumer Finances, the mean net worth of retirees was $108,000, which includes their homes and all other assets. When they lose money in the stock market, they become even more careful with their money.
I think the big problem is that those in the top decile of wealth aren’t investing. Their mean net worth was $1,569,000 in 2009, and if they let their money ride in the market, they are even richer. Even without additional savings, portfolios with low exposure to the financial sector are back where they were before the Great Crash. They have the money that would make a difference.
A substantial part of this group has figured out that the stock market sucks. They have a lot of money, and a lot of connections, and they can read. They see that big corporations are operated for the benefit of their biggest shareholders and top management. They see that Wall Street is out to screw them into the ground and take their last dollar. They hate Wall Street and its un-indicted criminal population. They are convinced that Congress loves Wall Street and responds to their tiniest hurt feelings, ignoring the rest of us. So do the SEC and the Department of Justice, which won’t even investigate the causes of the Great Crash.
They know that high frequency traders are sucking all the profits out of the market. They know, some from personal experience, that the CPAs who audit giant corporations sold their principles years ago.
Look at what happened to Carlyle Group. It is the largest private equity company, and it recently went public. They sold at $22 per unit, below their anticipated range, and were trading at $21.33 when I checked May 9. Ask yourself a simple question. If this company hits a good deal, who will get the money? Will it be shareholders? C’mon, it’s a serious question. OK, I admit it, it isn’t a serious question. We all know the money will be sucked out by the insiders, and it’s doubtful shareholders will even realize how badly they’ve been screwed. Here’s how they do it at Bain Capital.
Politicians and police keep us from occupying Wall Street. Deserting it may be the best punishment we can deliver.




39 Comments

Dessert Wall Street & turn it into a desert.
I like it.
I’d also like it if the Ben Bernank would stop giving Wall Street unlimited play money to gamble with at basically zero interest.
Recommended.
what a great article.
A stock drops by a huge amount in one hour, for no reason, and the the pitiful explanation is given that somebody accidentally hit the wrong key on his computer keyboard.
That’s the explanation. given with a straight face. And, they promise it won’t happen again.
With the amount of money available, the absolute ease of scamming, and the complete lack of oversight, it would be contrary to human nature, for honesty to be in play at the stock exchange.
Yeah, they think people are stupid.Glad to hear they’re not,in some instances.
“massive liquidity courtesy of the Fed” ; yup though the will deny intervening in the ‘markets’ they do.
But I also think there’s a substory to it and that is the pension funds and PBGC. BY pumping up share prices, pension funds such as CalPers have the butts taken ‘out of the ‘fire’ (doesn’t do a damn thing ofr those whose 401k’s were trashed having had to move from a defined pension benefit plan to one ‘self directed’) and that helps PBGC who really have problems with the all the existing funds that went belly up in the ‘great recession’.
I suspect the Fed is much more concerned with them than it is with those who can’t find work.
Great read and I love your closing line, highly rcc’d.
One of the well-known financial sites banned me from further commenting when I said that (1) the stock market is nothing but a gambling casino operated for the benefit of insiders, (2) no one is actually investing when more than half the trades are flash trades, and (3) speculation in the commodity markets caused death and destruction, particularly among foreign small farmers.
Wall Street needs to be burned down.
If you do any reading about the aftermath of the crash of 1929 and the depression that followed, you will find that private and retail investors avoided the market until sometime in the early 1970s.
Getting skinned has a tendency to make one very cautious. And these days “Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” would most certainly be the order of the day.
recd’
I’ve been totally out of the markets since the summer of Enron and have no plans of going back. Stocks & bonds are utter frauds these days and if you believe anything you read in a fund prospectus you are a fool. If they want me back as an investor I first need to see a lot of arrests & prosecutions…
Good point. The NYSE launched a number of ad campaigns trying to persuade people that they could safely invest in stocks.
Bravo.
a must read from 70 years ago
http://www.amazon.com/Where-Customers-Yachts-Street-Marketplace/dp/0471119784
Sounds like another bust getting ready to happen. Only this time people will run for the hills before it does
Flash-Crash Story Looks More Like a Fairy Tale
money quote for me “not available to ordinary taxpayers.”
there’s a reason Romney only released two years of tax returns, and when we find it, it’s going to be ugly.
Plus, love the example given of Sealy – one of the formerly fine companies manufacturing a good necessary product destroyed, and its product with it, by equity financing.
I’m with Zerohedge too
They quote Themis Trading a lot. Who really seem to know the ins and outs and malefactors involved in High Frequency Trading
Like here for instance
Themis Trading New White Paper:Exchanges and Data Feeds – Data Theft on Wall Street
and
As European Banks Pull Out All Stops To Defend Picosecond HFT, Themis Trading Explains The Lies Behind “Providing Liquidity”
and
Themis Trading On The SEC’s Flash Crash (Non) Report
IPO’s big ones, connected ones politically connected especially ( Bush 1 ) don’t open unless they are pretty much guaranteed their stock will go up then all the insiders sell at a profit.
Things are horribly wrong in WallStreet if the Carlyle Group’s IPO is selling for less.
The Fix I presume was in but it did not work…this is panic button bad.
The lowest all time interest rates set by USG mean no return on bond savings forcing many to go into the markets. Done puposely to support the stock market. Interesting that the volumes of equity are dropping. Government investing is also down but but the economy growtht is still in the black. Thanks Massacio.
For saying comments like that at FDL you might get asked to write a Diary:)
Then there’s this from Washington’s Blog
84% of All Stock Trades Are By High-Frequency Computers … Only 16% Are Done By Human Traders
Exactly, and Zerohedge has been talking up the Nanex findings beginning a few weeks after the flash crash.
it looks like another example of regulators in the tank for the industries they supposedly regulate.
People are getting wise to the fact that the stock market is a rip-off unless your portfolio is managed by a top manager, which usually requires a min of $3 to $5 million, and those managers are conservative. The easy gains generated by the fall in interest rates from 1981 to 2000 made everybody look good. They are gone for as far forward as we can see.
The problem with the risk premium models is that they don’t factor in major changes in attitudes toward risk that were caused by the big players gaming the market at the old risk premia. The quants have out-gamed themselves on this one.
You got banned for that? If you claimed the sun rises in the East they probably would have out a contract on you.
Given that interest rates are at the lower bound, and that in the short run stock prices move inversely to interest rates (just like bonds), people have a good reason to shrug of quantitative easing. The only ease it gives is to the carry trade.
So where is your money, darms?
They’re new age Bucket Shops
The problem now is that Wall Street is like a casino and those who play it are like the guy who stays at the tables or slots until he drops with each little win convinced he’s going to make it big the next time.
Thanks for that, Masaccio. Every time our bank statement or money market fund statement arrives, with its indicated return of under 1%, that very thought occurs to me.
I’ve long believed it, but only feel ratified when you say it.
Ooops
Forgot to hit reply to sharonsj @ 5
The WSJ had an article in its weekend edition [May 5-6] basically pre-defending an extension of the Bush tax cuts by saying their end would be a disaster. ["The 2013 Fiscal Cliff Could Crush Stocks."] The argument goes that increasing the tax rate on dividends will reduce a stock’s yield, so high income investors will dump stocks, forcing the market down 30%. My first question: where the f*** will these “high income folks” put their resources?
Masaccio, I’d love your thoughts and analysis on this. Clearly they’re trying to establish these arguments so they can be quoted in the upcoming debate.
They won’t dump stocks; they can’t because they have nothing else to do with their money. The WSJ is disgusting.
On the other hand, people with cash or cash equivalents, and even people with bonds would be happy to buy stocks and increase their returns even if they have to pay taxes on dividends, because we are paying taxes on our interest income, pathetic as it is.
I suppose you could tax dividends on a progressive basis.
$29,000,000,000,000: A Detailed Look at the Fed’s Bailout by Funding Facility and Recipient
Talk about bail out!!! The fed helped the banks a lot more than most of us knew.
The problem with the fed easing theory forcing people to take more risk is interest on bonds was already at or near historic lows. I’m not sure it has much of an impact. If you are talking long term bonds, then the owner could keep them and collect the interest or sell them and get the cap gain. Also, there are those who say that we should not pay any interest on short term treasury bonds.
That said I would suppose that was Ben’s objective. I’m just not on board with it doing much of anything.
George Carlin was right decades ago.
It’s a club, and you ain’t in it.
I divested. I took my losses on my 401k and I have been urging my wife to do likewise. I put that money in gold and a vintage car that has appreciated 10% a year for each of the three years I’ve owned it. As for the stock market? There’s no “there” there.
An even bigger problem is that the theory is just a lie. Fed easing is just a giveaway to the banks which turn around and trade in food/energy commodities, thereby driving gas and food prices sky high.
Thanks Bluedot.
Recommended. Tweeted.
That is exactly right, but what most people seem to miss is that those low money market and bank passport rates have been in place continuously since the early 1990′s, and, yes, the purpose is to force conservative people into riskier investments than they really want to be in. Then the smart money takes it all off the table with massive sell-offs when they deem the pot to be big enough. Just like any poker game, inexperienced new blood is necessary and welcome.
When the elite lose their compradors, it’s time to abandon the colony.
Of course, it’s a very difficult decision for compradors to quit. And for the elite to abandon them is a catastrophe.
Are compradors finally getting a conscience?