The Washington Post has come up with one of its usual inside-the-Beltway, “we asked everyone at our cocktail party” articles about who will take Senator Daniel Inouye’s place.
Of course, it’s in their typical “we know this person, and we want to protect our access” form. It doesn’t provide an accurate run-down of potential candidates, a view of Hawaii Democratic politics, or much of anything of value, other than the usual mutual back-scratching.
This is not to say that Hanabusa wouldn’t be an okay candidate, but I think readers of the Post deserve better.
First, a bit of history. Daniel Inouye has been Hawaii’s Senator FOREVER [see his interesting biography] and is of course being lauded from here to Sunday. He ran the state as his own fiefdom. One reason Ed Case [see below] is in such disfavor as a possible replacement is that Case angered Inouye by daring to challenge Sen. Daniel Akaka, prior to Akaka’s retirement this year. No, no, Case, Inouye gets to pick the next Senator!
Second, the Post fails to mention one quirky detail about a possible Hanabusa candidacy: she’s a House member, and a special election would have to be held to replace her. Special elections cost $$$$$$$$. Hawaii’s governor Abercrombie should know: he retired from his House seat in 2010 to get a jump on starting his campaign for governor. Hawaii had to hold a special election to replace him. It cost boatloads of money, and there’s a lot of lingering resentment over that. The special election also gave Hawaii the incredibly feeble Republican Represenative Charles Djou. What an embarrassment. [In the quirks of a special election, all can run. Two Dems split the vote, so Djou snuck in.]
Third, Hawaii law provides that a Senate vacancy such as this shall be filled by the governor, from a list of three names submitted by the prior Senator’s party. [Don't know why they didn't get smart enough to make such a provision for House seats, and avoid that messy special election situation.] This introduces two variables: who’s going to be on the list [what sort of in-fighting is going on among Dems?] and whom will Abercrombie choose — or more likely, whom does he hate so much that there’s not a chance in hell he’d choose them?
And another wrinkle: Abercrombie could choose himself, or create some “I’ll resign and then you’ll appoint me” charade. Word on the street has always been that Abercrombie didn’t like DC and his House seat. He might be more inclined to make those long plane trips for the prestige of being a US Senator. That’s a rumbling I’m hearing among those more in the know re Hawaii politics than I am.
Next, possible candidates other than Hanabusa. First, there’s Brian Schatz, currently Hawaii’s Lt. Governor. In a remarkable coincidence, Schatz attended Punahou School and Pomona College in CA, like another famous Hawaii native son. He served in the Hawaiian legislature from 1998-2006, and chaired the Dem. Party there from 2006 until his election in 2010. He’s a generally good guy, and my personal favorite.
The Post mentions Ed Case. They put a “D” next to his name, which is a laugh. He’s despised by most Hawaiian Democrats, other than developers. And, as mentioned above, he had the gall to challenge Akaka. Not. A. Chance.
The Post also mentions Mufi Hannaman. Mufi just lost big in his attempt to be Congressman from Hawaii. He’s a “good ole boy,” with a lot of stick-in-the-mud policies. I don’t think Abercrombie likes him, so I wouldn’t hold out for his ascension.
Tulsi Gabbard, who was also mentioned, is a possibility, although since she was JUST elected to the House [to fill the seat of Mazie Hirono, who succeeded in her bid to take Akaka's Senate seat]. Tulsi’s good, attractive and was featured at the Democratic Convention. Abercrombie could choose her, but it would be a surprise.
Finally, often these appointments are filled by someone on the Senator’s staff. Don’t know about that. My husband and I perused the listing, but no one stood out to us as a possible dark horse.
That’s the best I’ve got, but I’m hoping it’s better than what the Post gave you.
On edit: I’m wondering about the timing of selecting the “replacement.” I’m willing to bet that Obama is leaning heavily on Abercrombie and Hawaii Dems for an early decision, to get one more Democrat into the Senate chamber before he presents his Grand Betrayal. Word is that nothing will be announced until after Inouye’s funeral, which is next week.
A minor note: if Abercrombie actually DID nominate someone before the end of 2012, I’m pretty sure that person would have seniority over those newcomers entering in the new session [like Elizabeth Warren]. Might only be for a day or two, but in the tradition-obsessed Senate, every minute counts.




29 Comments

Hawai’i is too exotic for inside beltway denizens to figure out doncha know…
(and I remember when Neil was a state senator presenting himself as an actual, union loving, liberal)
Well, he did sign the civil unions bill.
Far better than that Republican toad Lingle. [She's just ITCHING to run for this seat!!!!] She ran against Mazie Hirono for Akaka’s seat, and the Chamber of Commerce POURED money into ads for her, long before the election. My bet was always that this was “educating the public” re the next election. Unfortunately for Lingle, the “public” might remember “Furlough Fridays” [closing the schools and libraries on Fridays to "save money"] and the “Super Ferry” [a boondoggle for her pals that she pushed through without environmental evaluation. Actually the ferry was a good idea; she was just too impatient and imperialistic.]
Thanks, interesting analysis. I don’t suppose the WaPo has a reporter who actually lives in Hawaii.
Thanks. Well done analysis.
The Post writes stories they are told to write so this propaganda story is more likely trying to influence rather than incompetence as far as not taking the time to investigate and educate themselves on Hawaii politics. 1% want to pick.
Mahalo, MM…! Great job…! One thing I found odd was the fact that Inouye never contacted Hanabusa about his dying wishes, so where did this letter really come from…? I just don’t see Abercrombie appointing himself, but I agree that Schatz would be the best pick of the litter, and, would keep our Cong. Delegation intact for some time…! I think it’s either Mufi or Brian…! I’ve been anti-Mufi for decades now, back when he was snot-nosed Lawyer that just passed the Bar Exam and he was defending the push to build the Space Port in Ka’u…! Think about it, building large tanks of rocket fuel on the most active Rift zone in the World…! *gah*
TULSI GABBARD is not doubt young and attractive, I would say the HOTTEST looking, elected official you can ever think of. I would definitely want her to be the long lasting senator just for her pleasant looks.
See PICTURE of TULSI Gabbard:
http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-meet-tulsi-gabbard-the-first-hindu-american-in-us-congress/20121107.htm
Thank you for this excellent rundown.
I too came away from reading the WaPo piece thinking it was incomplete and slanted to The Establishment, but it’s great to find the real details right on the FDL front page. I appreciate this.
I just added an edit re timing.
I’m wondering if the White House made a phone call or two, urging the WaPoo “reporter” to put this story up, all in the hope of stampeding a decision to get someone into the seat.
Is your Governor a 1%er? If he is he will pick from the “approved” list.
Wow! Radical dude. Mahi-mahi and aloha. I remember Daniel Inouye from when I was a kid. I’m 61 now. I hope our tube riding, hang five buddies in the 50th state send somebody good. Man, we need a righteous dude in the senate real bad. Wow, man. Wasn’t the presiddente from Hawaii??? What if he like knows this guy???
Smart move by Abercrombie would be to make dual announcement of a Place holder appointment until next election and endorsement of Hanabusa for the senate in next election.
He avoids the need for a special election, and associated cost, for Hanabusa’s seat while at same time following the “spirit” of Danny’s last request, if not the letter.
Maybe appoint someone like Ester Kiaaina, who could then run for Hanabusa’s seat in the 2016 round.
I hope that Mufi is history. He is becoming the Harold Stassen of Hawaii politics.
Regrettably Ed Case has to much family money and rethuglican support ( something he shared with Mufi) to show the good sense to just fade away so I expect to see him muddying the waters on one or the other races.
Who is this other famous Hawaii native son who attended Pomona College?
A few clarifications and quibbles from another resident of Paradise. First, no state can provide for appointment of a member of the US House of Representatives in case of a vacancy. The US Constitution specifically requires special elections. The timing of such special elections is, however, governed by State law.
Second, Mufi Hannemann is toast. Abercrombie hates him and Abercrombie’s team helped make sure that Tulsi swamped Mufi in the primary for the 2d District House seat (the one that Mazie vacated to run for Senate).
Third, Neil has specifically ruled himself out as a candidate for an appointment. Moreover, the Party is requiring that anyone interested must submit a statement of candidacy to the Party by Monday December 28. Neil may ask the Party not to disclose the names of the candidates.
Fourth, Maui Mom is right on the money as to Ed Case. Ed was literally a member of the Blue Dog Caucus when he was in the House. Abercrombie’s forces split in the Senate primary, with the Progressives and Inouye partisans supporting Mazie and those members of the anti-Inouye faction who could tolerate Ed’s conservatism supporting him. Abercrombie and Inouye did not always see eye-to-eye, but I think Abercrombie and Inouye came together on most matters because of the need to keep Inouye in the driver’s seat as Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Fifth, and most important, unless C Tut knows something I don’t, it’s been common knowledge in Honolulu political circles that Inouye went around to several sessions of the PTB in town, with Colleen in tow, to tell them all that Colleen was his choice to succeed him. Including a big luncheon at the Plaza Club in September or October, I believe. So, Colleen very definitely does know that Inouye has tapped her. Whether that will carry enough weight with Abercrombie though is another question. The big development interests want Colleen, that’s pretty much a given. Because Inouye was held in near-sacred status, and because it is clear that both Inouye and the developers have wanted Colleen, she’s got something of an inside track. The Gov would have to overcome that presumption if he chooses someone else.
Sixth, the state law is quite clear: The party (here the State Central Committee of the Dem Party – about 75 or 80 people) will select three names, no more, no fewer, and submit them to the Governor. The list is NOT advisory; it is mandatory. The Gov must choose from the list. The Gov has asked, in the past, at the
legislative level, for party officials not to disclose the names on the lists, but at this high level, I’d guess the names will leak out. (We have similar statutes relating to vacancies in the legislature – the Gov must choose from a list of three.)
Seventh: Tulsi: She’s a giant-killer for knocking out Mufi by nearly 20 points in the primary. That’s a reason that Mufi is really finished. (Mufi – alone among the major candidates – did not attend the Party’s unity breakfast on the morning after the primary. He knows he’s out of politics, unless he goes GOP.) But, pretty as Tulsi is, you all need to know that she started her political career as a Republican who was very reactionary on LGBT issues, like her father, who is a State Senator. Tulsi then went to Kuwait in the military and came back seemingly transformed into a fierce opponent of war. We are all watching her to see if she will be true to her word.
Aloha, SP…! …C Tut knows something I don’t, it’s been common knowledge in Honolulu political circles that Inouye went around to several sessions of the PTB in town, with Colleen in tow, to tell them all that Colleen was his choice to succeed him.
First, remember that Inouye had every intention of running for his seat in ’16, and, the Hilo Rag had a front page article yesterday stating she (Colleen) was ‘surprised’ by the letter…!
Mahalo, for the great Oahu input on Mufi…! I’m also very leery about Tulsi too, just like as you mention her father Mike had switched over from Repug to Dem…! Any chance that Calvin Say might be on the short list(not that I want him to be)…?
Aloha!, C Tut: I seriously doubt that Calvin Say will be on the list. For info of other readers: Calvin has been the Blue Dog speaker of the Hawaii House of Reps for the past 13 years. He’s 60 years old and is losing a tug of war to the guy he ousted as Speaker way back in 1999. The reformer faction made a deal with the former speaker, who brought in the 6 or 7 Republicans in the 51-seat House, to total about 27 or 28. Now that it’s clear that there will be a change, a couple more from the Say faction are going over to the winning side.
I doubt very much that Calvin Say would apply for the Senate seat, and I’m virtually certain he would not get Abercrombie’s approval. Factoid: He was the only Legislature candidate who had serious opposition from a Green candidate – Keiko Bonk, previously from the Big Island where C Tut lives. Calvin got 5,000+ votes, Keiko about 3,500, and the Republican about 1,300. (I could look it up if needed.)
Abercrombie will need all the support he can get in the 2014 primary and general. He has had to make some tough decisions on budget issues and I think he has been greatly improving the management of the State government, which Linda Lingle had left in shambles, proving the Republican adage that government doesn’t work (when a Republican is in charge). But Abercrombie has gratuitously pissed off a lot of people, particularly Hawaiians and environmentalists through his support of the Public Land Development Authority, which is being attacked on all the Neighbor Islands and in large parts of Oahu in particularly vehement terms. Neil doesn’t need to piss off the House reformers by elevating Say. He needs their support lest someone emerge (conceivably Lt. Gov Brian Schatz, but I doubt it) as a primary challenger. If Abercrombie loses re-election, it would most likely be in the primary, not the general. So, he needs to prevent his Senate selection from antagonizing any major faction. This is the strongest reason that he might select Colleen Hanabusa, rather than someone else.
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Mahalo and thank you for taking the time to write this analysis. I wish what’s best and, the best, for Hawai’i.
And I thank you, It’s fun to discuss.
Late-breaking news from one of the Honolulu TV stations: Lt. Gov Brian Schatz will be a candidate for the Senate appointment.
This is now quite sticky for the Governor, assuming that both Schatz and Hanabusa are put on the Dem Party’s list of three. The Gov angers his Lt. Gov, with whom he must continue to work, if the Gov does not select him. The Gov angers the Inouye loyalists (although how much is questionable – Colleen isn’t the most popular – she won her primary by only 75-25 against an unknown who did not campaign) if he doesn’t select her.
More late news from Paradise: State Sen Will Espero of Waipahu in Leeward Oahu has also declared his candidacy. He’s a leader in the Filipino community. He reflects a lot of their values: economic liberal, social conservative. (He was among those who voted against civil unions for gay couples in 2009.)
Abercrombie issued an interesting statement. As quoted in the Honolulu paper: Abercrombie said today “every weight” will be given to Inouye’s request, but added any discussion on who he might appoint is premature until the state party presents its list of nominees. This can be seen as a backhanded request to the Dem Party’s State Central Committee to keep her name off the list.
I don’t think Abercrombie would pick Espero, but I can’t be sure about that at all. There is likely to be a big push from the Filipino community to give the appointment to him. Espero is relatively young and would hold the seat for quite a while, unless he got knocked off in the 2014 primary.
As between Schatz and Tony Gill, I’m not sure whom Abercrombie would pick. I have to think that Schatz discussed this with Abercrombie before declaring. And I don’t think Brian would be a candidate if he were sure that Abercrombie would reject him.
Forgot the quote marks in one of the paragraphs above: The Honolulu Star Advertiser stated: QUOTE Abercrombie said today “every weight” will be given to Inouye’s request, but added any discussion on who he might appoint is premature until the state party presents its list of nominees. END QUOTE. START MY COMMENT: This can be seen as a backhanded request to the Dem Party’s State Central Committee to keep her name off the list. END MY COMMENT.
One more: Evidently Esther Kia`aina, who had been a Congressional staffer for both Ed Case and Mazie Hirono, has joined the fray. She ran in the Second District primary in which Tulsi blew Mufi away, but Esther came in a poor third. She has no other electoral experience. I don’t think she’ll even make the list of three, much less be appointed. She’ll probably get into elective office in the not-too distant future, but not this time.
Schatz to seek Senate seat left vacant by Inouye…</a.
…Schatz, in a statement, says no one can take Inouye’s place. But he says he hopes to make the case to state Democratic party members that he should be among the three candidates to succeed Inouye.
Schatz joins U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in announcing plans to apply for the job. Inouye, in a letter to Gov. Neil Abercrombie, said his last wish was for Hanabusa to succeed him.
Abercrombie will choose Inouye’s replacement from a list of 3 candidates sent to him by the state Democratic party. The party’s central committee plans to meet Dec. 28. The deadline for applications is Monday.
Btw, when did Tony Gill come into the picture, SP…?
Speaking of the provenance of the ‘letter’…
Civil Beat: “U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka’s office was “totally unaware” of the seriousness of Daniel Inouye’s condition, according to an official there.
Akaka Press Secretary Jesse Broder Van Dyke told Civil Beat on Tuesday (Dec. 18) that the belief was that Inouye was in relatively stable condition while at Walter Reed Hospital.
The only inkling that something was amiss came Sunday night, Broder Van Dyke said, when Inouye’s people (Peter Boylan) released a statement at 11 p.m. Eastern Standard Time ( December 16 – Sunday!) saying that the senator was having respiratory complications and the date of his hospital release was unknown.
“We had no idea that he was that sick,” Broder Van Dyke said.”
About an hour after his death at 12:01 p.m. on December 17, 2012, a letter from Senator Dan Inouye was hand-delivered to Governor Neil Abercrombie by former First Hawaiian CEO Walter Dods and Jeffrey Watanabe, retired attorney and Chairman of Hawaiian Electric Company. The deceased Senator anointed Colleen Hanabusa to be his successor.
Connect the political machine dots…
*gah*
Thanks for this diary, Mauimom — and thanks to SP and CTut for the commentary.
I’ve been on a plane for 6 hours, so haven’t been able to comment. Thanks so much SP for your additional information; much appreciated.
Mahalo to you too, CTut.
I read an article in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser going through the possibilities in a race to fill Hanabusa’s House seat, if she gets the appointment. Not good! Ed Case, Mufi [here's hoping he really IS through in politics], Djou.
SP and CTut: no one’s mentioned Cayetano. [He's a prior governor who ran for mayor of Honolulu in November.] I’d LOVE a return of those “Cayetano is a dirty crook” ads we were treated to in the primary.
Tony Gill announced in an internal Dem email yesterday. Once it leaked out into the media, I felt free to mention it here.
There was some activity to get Cayetano to jump in, but I understand that he has declined. The strong momentum seems to be for a young ‘un who can build seniority the way Inouye did. That’s, of course, only one of the reasons that most of the State has been in thrall of him for decades.
Also, Cayetano ran for mayor this past cycle for the express purpose of killing the insane Leeward Oahu rail project, which was one of Inouye’s pet boondoggles. For Abercrombie (a long-time friend of Cayetano) to appoint Cayetano to Inouye’s seat would be considered sacrilege by the Inouye faction. Since Abercrombie cannot afford to alienate any more people than he already has, he cannot appoint Cayetano, much as he might like to do so. Cayetano is too classy a guy to put Abercrombie in such a bind. Hence he will not step forward.