TarheelDem

Last active
13 hours, 52 minutes ago
  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Silencing the Children of Gaza by Siun.

    2014-07-24 17:33:57View | Delete

    Saw the tweet stream comments from this. Seemed to be some folks of the opinion, “Mr. Netanyahu, tear down this wall.” The rising in the West Bank seems to be trying to test Israel’s response to non-violent protest tactics. That will be the most likely tactics to outnumber the IDF in the streets. If the [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the blog post Democrats Suffer From Significant Enthusiasm Gap

    2014-07-24 11:11:44View | Delete

    Ineffectual clarity’s a bummer, isn’t it?

  • TarheelDem commented on the blog post Democrats Suffer From Significant Enthusiasm Gap

    2014-07-24 11:11:05View | Delete

    Don’t know what the mechanics are but FL-13 looks ripe for an anti-outsider (Steve Israel) write-in campaign in the general to get someone good in. If it’s rip-roaring enough to draw national attention, it at least could embarrass the current Dem leadership. That one seems to be a good one if the locals are angry enough to work on it. Too often in situations like this, people just acquiesce or don’t vote at all. This sort of filing date manipulation is all too frequent corruption.

    As for D W-S, when does her district want a real Republican? Count the primary votes needed to challenge her in 2016 and put up a strong primary challenger (able to get 170,000 votes in the general election). Otherwise, she’s just “representin’ her district”. /g

  • TarheelDem commented on the blog post Democrats Suffer From Significant Enthusiasm Gap

    2014-07-24 10:32:28View | Delete

    And that’s why national “enthusiasm” polls mean bupkus.

  • TarheelDem commented on the blog post Democrats Suffer From Significant Enthusiasm Gap

    2014-07-24 09:59:05View | Delete

    Nationwide polls mean little in mid-term elections. Only a 435-district poll can give you a real fix on enthusiasm because of the “I hate Congress but I still like my own incumbent” phenomenon. What people in California or New York think of Kay Hagan or Mary Landrieu is irrelevant. Likewise what people in Mississippi think of Sherrod Brown or Gary Peters. Even more variation when you get down to the Congressional District level.

    It also misses how the independents are breaking, and there are enough independents even in a midterm to matter. Independents being not the mythical third way but ticket-splitters who vote for reasons other than partisan loyalty or ideological position. The effects in aggregate tend to be random, but for a particular race could be significant on election day.

    Note that all polls need to state the margin of error. Enthusiasm as a predictor of enthusiasm is what the margin of error of this poll will show. Enthusiasm as a predictor of election results is likely to be pretty wide. About as wide as NSA’s correlation as a predictor of pre-crime.

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Gazans Explain What They Want From Any Ceasefire by Siun.

    2014-07-23 13:46:04View | Delete

    Where outside Israel are governments denying right of return of refugees? Of course, the folks who left Iraq should have a right of return and a society that guarantees their human rights. IIRC, the UN Charter and subsequent statements on refugees state that. It is important to realize that the UN was a response in [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Gazans Explain What They Want From Any Ceasefire by Siun.

    2014-07-23 11:05:47View | Delete

    Well argued, Margo Schulter.

    The presence of the settlements remain as much a problem as the White Conservative Citizens Councils after desegregation.

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Gazans Explain What They Want From Any Ceasefire by Siun.

    2014-07-23 11:03:05View | Delete

    Bloomberg goes to Israel to demonstrate that air travel is safe. Kerry announces a 24-hour extension of the FAA order. What message is Bloomberg taking to Bibi? Oh, and Mikulski’s Iron Dome supplemental funding bill is attached to an immigration reform bill. How much does the GOP love Israel? More than they hate children on [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Gazans Explain What They Want From Any Ceasefire by Siun.

    2014-07-23 10:02:09View | Delete

    Truth hurts. The settler romanticism of Exodus that so connected with pioneer America is wearing off. Americans have caught up to their own history of ethnic cleansing. Its time for supporters of Israel to face up to the crimes of Irgun. Meanwhile US media has responded to this ethnic cleansing (check the historical maps of [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Gazans Explain What They Want From Any Ceasefire by Siun.

    2014-07-23 09:15:33View | Delete

    That seems to be the path that Netanyahu is going down. Toward a sectarian Islamic State of Palestine that drives the Jews out of Israel just as they have driven the Christians out of Mosul–a logical result of W’s misguided war of choice in Iraq. The demographics show that an apartheid one-state solution is not [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Gazans Explain What They Want From Any Ceasefire by Siun.

    2014-07-23 08:27:41View | Delete

    Israel will not let the coast of Gaza be uninhabitable; beachfront property on the Mediterranean is at a premium. Uninhabitable for Palestinians, maybe, but not uninhabitable.

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Gazans Explain What They Want From Any Ceasefire by Siun.

    2014-07-23 08:09:40View | Delete

    I’m glad your voice is back at FDL, Siun. The basis of a ceasefire has gotten pretty simple. The Palestinians (West Bank and Gaza) will stop defending their territory and their people when all acts of war stop–the attacks, the expansion of settlements, the blockade, the wall, the incursions of IDF at will into Palestine, [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Israel Tries New Rationale for War by Siun.

    2014-07-23 05:32:44View | Delete

    The issue of Assad’s survival is not as important as the forces that can oppose the Islamic State, which is 15,000 or so committed fighters seeking to govern 30-40 million people immediately and with a vision of governing over a billion people. Those opposition forces to the Islamic State include Hezbollah, Syrian Baath, Iraqi Shias, [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Israel Tries New Rationale for War by Siun.

    2014-07-23 05:09:54View | Delete

    Hamas is the legitimate elected government of Gaza, which Israel is treating as a sovereign state with which it is at war. Any government has the obligation to defend its institutions and its people. Israeli bombing and shelling made tunnels necessary. Israeli invasion of Palestinian territory with settlements deserved a military response from the West [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Israel Tries New Rationale for War by Siun.

    2014-07-23 05:02:55View | Delete

    Bibi will not do what is necessary to ensure Israel’s survival as a democratic Jewish state (a bit of a contradiction to begin with). He will do what he thinks is “tough”. And that will hasten Israel’s final demise. I read the same thing you did. You are not wrong about what Bibi intends to [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Israel Tries New Rationale for War by Siun.

    2014-07-22 19:05:18View | Delete

    Netanyahu has not realized that US rapprochement with Iran, restabilization of Syria under Assad, rapid granting of sovereignty to Palestine and Gaza, and anti-disrimination legislation in Israel proper are his way out of crisis. Continued expansion of the settlements is both problematic and provocative. The Islamic State cannot deliver government services and is using the [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Israel Tries New Rationale for War by Siun.

    2014-07-22 17:51:43View | Delete

    What have the settlements been but a rolling Nakba?

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Israel Tries New Rationale for War by Siun.

    2014-07-22 17:31:32View | Delete

    When the West Bank enters the conflict, it changes the balance. That likely is Bibi’s biggest fear. That’s why I think he might have overreached.

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Israel Tries New Rationale for War by Siun.

    2014-07-22 16:55:04View | Delete

    Bibi holds forth: Times of Israel: Netanyahu Finally Speaks His Mind

    Beyond Israel’s direct current confrontation with Hamas, and the eternal Palestinian conflict, Netanyahu also addressed the rise of Islamic extremism across the Middle East — covering the incapacity of affected states to resist it, and Israel’s unique determination and capacity to stand firm. He said Israel [...]

  • TarheelDem commented on the diary post Israel Tries New Rationale for War by Siun.

    2014-07-22 14:32:18View | Delete

    Thanks for this analysis, Siun. Some things that the US media ignores: Hamas is the party that governs Gaza. The people of Gaza have a human right to exist in peace and safety. The government of a nation under attack has the responsibility defend itself and protect its institutions and the ability of its people [...]

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