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2 years, 2 months ago
  • I follow baseball and I’m one of those nerds from my Mom’s basement (“Mom, MOM! I’m done with my segment!”), so I’ve been familiar with Mr. Silver since long before 2008. I’m not convinced that Nate’s model is the best or the most comprehensive or robust. His PECOTA model was flawed, but it’s been improved and it was groundbreaking at the time.

    And his electoral model is shit tons more accurate than just going by a gut feeling. Political reporting right now is like baseball reporting in 1984. It’s all grit and hustle and heart and narrative. The nerds pouring over reams of spreadsheets and churning out the models and are slowing gaining acceptance despite encountering waves of hostile fire from entrenched blowhards that spout opinion with no evidence.

  • ChrisS commented on the blog post Why, those were a tribute from an admirer of mine.

    2010-12-30 06:03:17View | Delete

    but she lacks the white trash feral cynicism of a Palin.

    Gottdamn, that’s good. O’Donnell doesn’t realize that she could make a fine living raising more boners in the tea party than viagra, like Palin, by showing up at a rally, spewing some talking points, and getting paid. But, unlike O’Donnell, Palin knows that the gravy train keeps chugging along as long as she doesn’t run for office. Ol’ Sarah is going to play the rubes right up until the primaries get heated and then she’ll back off, say she can’t run because she needs to spend more time with her family. Campaign for Newt or Romney or Jeb and keep the checks rolling for another few years. She has no interest in governing. That doesn’t pay so well.

  • ChrisS commented on the blog post Beat. Surrender.

    2010-12-09 10:55:26View | Delete

    He said that we have a very long slog ahead of us, and he expressed frustration with people who brand him a failure just because its taking him more than two years undo forty years worth of damage done to this country by the Republicans.

    Except that’s what you heard, not what he said, and certainly not what the media is reporting he said.

    Obama is trading a lot for the economy, but he’s not doing anything that will actually improve the mid-to-long term economic situation for the lower 90% income bracket. He’s kicking the can down the road until 2012, when the GOP has the house, plus giving them a whole boxful of ammunition for the GOP to take over the senate AND kick Obama out of office.

  • ChrisS commented on the blog post Pop-Up Punditry (Now With Butthurtiness)

    2010-11-05 09:24:27View | Delete

    What?! Say it ain’t so.
    I always thought it was TB Ogg.

    What?! All these years I have been mentally reading it as Theodore J. Bogglesworth the IV