cinnamonape

Last active
3 years, 7 months ago
  • Excuse me, I meant Starbuck’s interpretation of Popper.

    ~~fixed ~~

  • Your interpretation of Popper is erroneous. His position on indeterminacy is not what you suggest it is. He is merely stating that complex systems can have multiple deterministic causation and that individual events within them may be unpredictable (sort of like trying to predict the ACT of a particular radioactive atom decaying within the next second). This does not hobble or “falsify” the use of Scientific Theory methodologically to predict patterns of many events – just as it would not falsify the half-life models to predict the decay of particular radioactive isotopes.

    Popper (a philosopher, not a scientist) was arguing about the proper “role” of theory in Science. He was stating that theories are constructs of human minds attempting to find pattern and causation and are thus subject to falsifiability. In order to work they must be predictive, but a singular event may not satisfy the falsifiability criteria. For some theories, which are statistical in nature (for example, climate theories) one needs to amass a number of falsifiers and contrast them with corroborative events.

    It does not mean that we need to retreat into “supernaturalism”.

  • I disagree with your interpretation of Popper. Popper’s point is merely that one cannot regard a specific event as “proving” anything. He would regard that predicting CLIMATE trends (as opposed to weather events) as perfectly within his hypothetico-deductive system. The “theory” is a tool based upon “best knowledge” that can be tested and revised if patterns do not match the predictions.

    For example, past Plio-Pleistocene climate patterns can be very easily predicted from Milanhovich’s sidereal and global tilt cycles. The exception appears to be the current phase were are in…which should be progressing toward an ice age (a finding made in the 1970′s and misinterpreted) yet is demonstrating a two century trend of increasing global average temperatures with dramatic increases in the last two decades. Other features, such as permafrost melt, loss of polar ice pack and glacial retreats suggest that anthropomorphic effects are involved. This ties in with the independent prediction made from those involved in atmospheric sciences…that increasing greenhouse gases would increase temperatures. Thus one has two independent theoretical models that coincide, and independent data from many sources that converge. This provides a consilience of data and theoretical predictions.

  • cinnamonape commented on the diary post What Did the South Say the Civil War Was about – at the Time? by FilmCriticOne.

    2010-12-23 14:19:04View | Delete

    The link to the commentary on the Pryor book is interesting since it suggests that there is a collection of Lee’s papers somewhere. Bona fide historians should have access to these and the questions they raise. If Lee sold the “white-appearing babies” then there should be sales records.Were the girls pregnant before they ran away? [...]

  • At the same time Alaska is the first state that is showing the severe effects of global warming…at an escalating scale. She will be ripe for a transcendent moment once the permafrost starts melting to create a State-wide bog, mudflows into towns and cities, slumps of the pipelines, etc. At some point even the petrochemical industry will also come around…at least the ones operating in Alaska.

  • I don’t seem to recall any great opposition regarding Vietnam from the Nixon/Goldwater/Reagan Republicans. In fact, they were the ones demanding such brilliant tactics as nuking the North. Nixon ran in 1968 on his “secret plan” to WIN the war ~ “Victory Through Strength”. And Reagan shut down the entire California University System after students rallied after Nixon’s secret bombing campaign was revealed and the Kent State shootings. That precipitated riots when police refused to allow students to protest.

  • In this case Nixon was completely right

    “There are times when an abortion is necessary. I know that. When you have a black and a white”…

    Oh, I thought he was referring to the surname “Black”…just goes to prove that Nixon was utterly misunderstood, don’t it. And I wonder how Nixon would KNOW THAT?

  • cinnamonape commented on the blog post Haley Barbour’s White Citizen’s Council Revisionism

    2010-12-20 22:07:38View | Delete

    Of course, Lindsey – by suggesting that his hometown (and his brother as Mayor) basically pulled this off without violence…honors the rest of Mississippi with faint praise. The implication was that all the rest of the state was run by the Klan and were violent towards blacks.

    The reality was that Yazoo’s Citizens Council simply gave up due to the determination of the black protestors and their boycott. They weren’t willing proponents of desegregation, and still created options for white evasion of the law. Instead they shifted to a strategy of “starving education” through supposed budget austerity. And Jeppie actually was the one to suggest that Haley (and his nephews) shift to a more accomodating Republican Party during the Nixon and Reagan campaigns.

  • cinnamonape commented on the blog post Haley Barbour’s White Citizen’s Council Revisionism

    2010-12-20 22:02:07View | Delete

    Haley’s brother was Mayor at the time when the schools were finally desegregated…16 years AFTER “Brown vs. the BoE” Supreme Court Decision. It was only after a long boycott of the local white-run businesses by the black community [and repeated failures of the tactics discussed above by the Citizens Council to "break" the boycott] that Jeppie realized that the town would “die” unless they desegregated.”It’s gonna happen someday”, he said.

    Jeppie, who was not averse to calling the local black kids “n****r”, encouraged the establishment of two Private Segregated “academies” so that white students could avoid contact with the black students in the public school….provided they had the money. Haley, who, in September asserted he came from the generation of the first integrated schools in Mississippi, actually attended these two All-White Academies. The poorer white families, of course, couldn’t afford these schools. So many of them “fled” Yazoo City that the population shifted from 40% black in 1970 to 70% black in 2000.

  • “Mr. Potter: [to George Bailey] Look at you. You used to be so cocky. You were going to go out and conquer the world. You once called me “a warped, frustrated, old man!” What are you but a warped, frustrated young man? A miserable little clerk crawling in here on your hands and knees and begging for help. No securities, no stocks, no bonds. Nothin’ but a miserable little $500 equity in a life insurance policy.
    [Potter chuckles]
    Mr. Potter: You’re worth more dead than alive! “

  • cinnamonape commented on the blog post Letting the Tax Cuts Expire as a Deficit Cut Roadblock

    2010-11-30 15:17:03View | Delete

    I think that theDemocrats should really push the deficit reduction issue and pass a Bill requiring total income tax cuts be capped at $200 billion. Since the Upper Class Tax Cut will total $700 billion that would compel the GOP to both expand the deficit AND only benefit the wealthy , when a moderate Middle Class Tax Cut would do neither.

    http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1811

    In fact it would force the GOP to make a hard choice…if they really believe that the Middle Class cuts don’t contribute substantially to job generation while the Upper Class cuts do (a fact counter to almost all economic analyses) then they should actually support ending the Middle Class tax breaks. In fact every legitimate economic analysis actually shows that the Middle Class tax cut is far more likely to act as an economic stimulus and produce job growth.

    Force the GOP to show their hypocrisy.

  • Sounds like the other members Dis-em(pson)bowled their proposal.

  • cinnamonape commented on the diary post Elaine Donnelly: Homosexuals Need to Calm Down by Teddy Partridge.

    2010-11-30 15:00:11View | Delete

    I think we need to stop allowing this COWARD named Joe “You Lie!” Wilson any more room to opine what the military or Marines deem “combat readiness”. Where was Joe Wilson during the Vietnam War? Hiding! Despite being a gung-ho Young Republican and “Youth For Goldwater” in 1964, he took a flyer by going to [...]

  • Nigel lucked out, I’d say. But maybe the drummer got caught using the same tactic?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRpWnK6Rg3E

  • cinnamonape commented on the blog post TSA Porno Screeners: Giant Boondoggle

    2010-11-22 17:57:53View | Delete

    Spinal Tap “Nigel Tuffnel’s Zucchini”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRpWnK6Rg3E

  • cinnamonape commented on the blog post TSA Porno Screeners: Giant Boondoggle

    2010-11-22 17:52:28View | Delete

    I was thinking that they could train a specialized team of lap-dancers and Chippendale’s guys to detect the suspicious items. You’d have volunteers lining up to be “patted down”. Those that didn’t request the treatment would be considered “highly suspicious”.

  • cinnamonape commented on the blog post FBI Raids Two Hedge Funds; Goldman Sachs Fears Outcome

    2010-11-22 17:47:06View | Delete

    Did those receiving the earlier “insider” info simply show their hands and decided to cut and run because they saw something similar to what had happened FOR them at Goldman-Sachs?

    Or I wonder if one could consider a “leak” about Goldman being investigated by the Feds a case of insider trading? What privileged class received this information?

    Also how much did the Goldman’s stock drop after the Abacus scandal was disclosed?

  • cinnamonape commented on the blog post Hyper-Rich GE Holds Workers Hostage for Tax Cuts

    2010-11-20 13:28:24View | Delete

    This is Unconstitutional on two fronts. One is that States cannot issue their own tariffs. Establishing tariffs and import taxes is the province of the Federal government. Second, one would be issuing a law directed at only one business or individual. And the Federal government would likely declare Sovereign status over some act restricting foreign investors. Congress could impose such laws…but maybe the SCOUSA would say that one couldn’t do that since corporations are now “citizens”…even if they have one American in the Board of Directors or as an investor.

    General products could be taxed, or fees or taxes imposed on particular costs to the State that are applied generally, however.

  • cinnamonape commented on the blog post Dear TSA: What About the Butt?

    2010-11-19 17:50:22View | Delete

    They’ll require everyone flying to consent to showing up three hours early and taking a bottle of Ex-Lax. Then, when they have to go, the special Port-Au-Potties will examine the poo.

    See…there is a logical next step.

  • Our nation was founded on the system of “corporate ownership”? Where in the Constitution is a single mention of corporations?

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