My parsing of Earl Blumenauer’s (Or-3) town hall with MPP last week is that 2016 is how Oregon is being strategized. For us I think the Washington experience will be key; their success or failure will have a major impact both on how our initiative is drawn, and how it fares at the ballot.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Unskewed Studmuffin Dean Chambers Does Not Care For Nate Silver’s Dickless Polling
Salem and surrounding Marion County are actually fairly Republican areas, not at all like Portland. Maybe you mean Corvallis or Eugene or even Ashland.
That said, you’re absolutely right. Mitt has no chance here.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Washington State Marijuana Legalization Initiative 502 Maintains Huge Lead
Unfortunately Oregon looks like it will not make it. But having WA pass it will put a lot of pressure on OR, particularly with CA’s status as well. It will be a sight to see, as Washigtonians head across the bridge to get cheap liquor, while Oregonians head the other way to get legal weed.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Medicaid Expansion Is Not a Political Slam Dunk in the States
I believe you’re referring to the Ford Pinto, led by Lee Iacocca, who demanded a 2000lb car for $2000–which foreclosed the expense of an $11 strike plate on the gas tank to prevent accidental ignition. Accountants estimated lawsuit losses from injuries and deaths without the plate, and found it more cost effective than adding the plate.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Federal Judge Explains Racist Obama Email By Saying It Wasn’t Meant to Be Public
Can someone explain the racist part? As I read it, the mom is saying she was so wasted that she also got made by a dog the night he was conceived. Saying Obama’s mom is a drunk bestial slut is pretty nasty, and I support calls for his resignation purely on that basis (combined w using public resources to do so). But I’m having a hard time with the racism. Is the point that screwing black men is something you’d only do when you’re wasted?
Boy, there sure are a lot of unsupported allegations against Paterno in this account. I think people are rushing pell mell to judgement, when the account Paterno gives holds up under examination as fully plausible. Sandusky didn’t work for him anymore, he didn’t have an accurate picture of what went on in the shower, and he passed it to “civilian” officials. The witness testified to what he saw, but it doesn’t say what he said to Paterno about it. Maybe HE wanted to minimize the issue as well.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Americans Overwhelmingly Want the Electoral College Eliminated
Why is it idiotic and horrible, exactly? We’re a nation of states, and that’s how we vote. I’d rather have people in smaller states be relatively overrepresented than underrepresented. Otherwise a presidential candidate goes to NY, CA, TX, FL, PA, OH, MI…and that’s probably it. I’m fine with the electoral college. Now, proportional EV allocation by district might be interesting, taking away the winner take all model.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Live Blog for #OWS: Day 34, Touring the Other Occupations
PORTLAND PORTLAND PORTLAND!!
From 10,000 marchers on Day One to the 600 now occupying Chapman and Landsdowne parks, Occupy Portland has been a huge success. The main appeal to me is the way the city government and police have really worked cooperatively with the protestors. To my knowledge only 8 civil disturbance arrests have been made, all in one morning to clear the street between the parks, a major bus line and car through-way to downtown. The vast majority (apparently 80%+) voted to clear the street, but as they say it’s a free country (or was). The mayor has been very hands on but with a light touch, saying they’ll take things day by day–meaning the camp may stay indefinitely! Three of the four remaining councillors have also visited, with two cautiously supportive in principle but seeking an endgame, while the other has declared his full support an “sees no compulsion to have them leave.” The Parks commissioner is worried about damage to the park, but officials are also working with campers to mitigate that problem.
The camp has set up well organizationally, with regular genassy, classes, a library, sanitation, etc.
Presidential candidates are usually on every state’s ballot, so there should me SOMEONE else to go with. If not, write in. How about Scott Kleeb?
THANK YOU. My god, there IS someone out there who shares my belief that you own your vote, it is a special thing, and it is not a tool for game theory. Take your vote, find the best candidate FOR YOU–not who is least worst, or who you need to vote for to prevent armageddon, but who most closeley expresses your views for the country–and cast that vote proudly. You only get one, and you cannot change how others vote. Treat your vote with respect. You won’t be backing a winner, but you won’t be bearing responsibility for what the winner ends up doing.
The chain has to break somewhere. Voting to reward failure is almost a guarantee you will get more of it.
torridjoe commented on the diary post Have you gotten this from the Dems yet? What will you respond? by Mauimom.
If it’s a BRE (biz reply envelope, prepaid postage), An effective way to get their attention is to send them money…in cash, specifically pennies, each of which costs more to mail than its value. Drop 30 or 40 spare lincolns in it and send it off. A stark message on the back seals the deal.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Wisconsin: Democrats Allege Massive Fraud in GOP Signature Gathering on Recalls
What are the raw current counts in those districts? In other words, how many disqualifieds would it take to bring them under the recall threshhold? Because while it may be doable to use the affadavits to get their signatures thrown out, it’s a leap to have the whole operation declared tainted. I don’t mean that it’s a leap to BELIEVE it, only that it’s a leap to prove it. The survey sample with the percentage claiming they didn’t sign or were misled might be more helpful in that regard, but the courts would have to accept their methodology wholeheartedly I’d think, in order to rule them fraudulent en masse.
They may accept the “this shows a pattern” argument that could sink the recalls, but my sense it’s that’s a high bar to meet.
Sorry Jon, I think you’re wrong here. You hint at a major reason in your close–every lightweight or nongas vehicle on the road cuts the revenue for highways, and eventually we’ll reach a tipping point. And it won’t take 80%, either; long before then the fund would see significant declines that would need replacing.
But the larger point–that people react to driving cost increases–isn’t supported by the facts, that either you provide or I believe are true. People react to the high PRICE of gas, but not the COST of driving. When prices go up, there is a quick and direct way to avoid that cost: stop driving so much. But the cost of a heavier vehicle is built-in, and much more inelastic, particularly in a recession: how are you supposed to buy a new, lighter car? For one thing, people understand enough about the cycles of gas prices, that driving less becomes reasonable but changing cars is too much of a change.
Have lighter/low fuel cars become more popular as gas has become nominally more expensive (remember, it’s still near or lower than peak real-dollar prices in the early 80s)? Sure. But we also have seen the rise of bigger SUVs and crossovers right along with it. People don’t buy hummers anymore, but they’re still buying (eg) Lexus 350s and Acura MDXs, both of which are smaller than true SUVs but have horrible mpg. For many people, the vicious cycle of wanting a bigger car for safety because of all the bigger cars on the road, is more important than saving money with a smaller car. In short, the use of gas pricing to get people to buy smaller, more efficient cars has seen mixed results at best.
But what DOES happen when prices go up, is that people either drive less, drive with others more, or switch modes entirely (to public trans or cycling, for instance). It is a direct, micromanagable response, one that changing cars is not.
So taxing by miles is really just a consumption issue, fully adjustable at the consumer level. Your ability to assess costs is highly transparent: drive another mile, pay more in tax. Figuring out how heavy your car needs to be, or what its mpg should be, in order to reduce your tax is much more abstract. You know those are factors, but they are unfixable on the fly and are a function of the car rather than the usage pattern. How you can assert that drive-by-mile taxes fail to provide the incentive to drive less, is beyond me. I just rented a truck to move some items in town, and you’d better believe with a per-mile charge I was honed in on how much I was driving. If I was simply forced to refill the tank when done, and the more I drove the more I’d have to fill up, would I have thought to myself, “Hmmm, what’s the sweet spot between size of truck and how much stuff I have to move?” Doubtful, and I’m more energy conscious than 75% of my fellows IMO. Most of your assertions on the problems stem from the idea that there will be more driving, not less, with a mileage tax. I don’t see where that’s supported, and intuitively I think it’s wrong.
In Oregon this very idea was floated, with the concept of an odometer checker as an installed piece on new cars for generating the taxable amount. I feel pretty confident this would make applying the tax MORE efficient, not less–it would be electronically transmitted at the individual level.
Which leaves only the civil liberties argument, which is indeed somewhat problematic. The govt may not know WHERE you’re driving, but they would know exactly how much. Frankly, I can live with that. Evasion might also be an issue, with folks disconnecting or spoofing their mileage transmissions, but that would be limited to an infinitesimal slice of the populace, perhaps similar to the people who can defeat copy protection on DVDs.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Similarities Between Ryan’s Medicare Plan and Affordable Care Act Make Dem Pushback Tricky
Churchill originally, I think.
torridjoe commented on the blog post Anti-Public Employee Bill Passes Senate in Wisconsin; Only the Beginning of the Fight
Forgive my temerity, but isn’t the need for a quorum ALSO part of democracy? Or was it put into WI’s constituiom by secret elves?
torridjoe commented on the blog post DADT Repeal Passage Owed to Incredible Grassroots Activism
I hear what your perspective is Jo, but like what it does or not, the military is a giant US social institution with broad mainstream support, and the notion of equality catching up to the other institutions (particularly the public ones) is a rejoiceworthy victory even if the institution itself manifests in dishonorable ways. Outside of the military context, it makes a
Significant statement on America’s social position when it comes to homosexuality. It’s another rubicon step, that even if maddeningly slow in actual fruition, is likely never to be reversed. Take some happiness in that; too many sad days lately to not savor a good one!
torridjoe commented on the blog post In Tax-Cut Capitulation, House Democrats Again Redefine Pathetic
Pissed, despondent, enraged–I’m using my thesaurus on a different word.
However, I am pleased to see that my entire Congressional delegation (the Dems anyway) went 6-6 in opposing the deal. I was a little surprised by Wyden, more so by Schrader as a self admitted Blue Dog–maybe because he has to come back to the chamber next year while many of his clubmates don’t.
So Earl Blumenauer, Peter DeFazio, Kurt Schrader, David Wu, Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden, thank you. You haven’t lost your minds and are willing to buck your party’s leadership when they go so far off the rails.
The rest of the 139 and 85–really, just blow me, you soulless hacks.
torridjoe commented on the blog post LaHood Revokes Wisconsin, Ohio High Speed Rail Money, Gives to Other States
Somewhere on the Hill, Earl Blumenauer and Pete DeFazio are cackling their asses off for once. Good on Ray.
This isn’t a serious attempt to claim a stimus effect, is it? This isnt actually a reduction in taxes or an increases in your paycheck–it’s simple status quo. In other words, you’ll notice no change in your circumstance whatsoever from today. Stimulus is as much psychological as economic. There’s no rationale prompting increased activity here.
And even so, what a shit trade.
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