WeatherDem

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1 year, 8 months ago
  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post Research: Volcanic Aerosols Largely Responsible for Recent Warming Slowdown by WeatherDem.

    2013-03-06 11:29:20View | Delete

    Scale is important here and I challenge the concept that any “fact” is “simple”. If that were the case, why isn’t it more readily accepted by all people? The Permian Extinction event took place over the course of 1 million years (with a great deal of uncertainty in that estimate). Can we say with a [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post Research: Volcanic Aerosols Largely Responsible for Recent Warming Slowdown by WeatherDem.

    2013-03-06 11:16:40View | Delete

    wayoutwest- So far as I know, this study challenges those NASA results, which is why the paper is noteworthy. The model does incorporate anthropogenic CO2 emissions – that is a main feature of the first graph. Those emissions do not produce the same level of AOD increase as seen in observations, so there is a [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post Research: Volcanic Aerosols Largely Responsible for Recent Warming Slowdown by WeatherDem.

    2013-03-06 11:13:43View | Delete

    The middle graph provides the key to the additional AOD: most of the injection occurred in the tropics. The AOD spikes in the middle graph (Equatorial band) before it spikes in the high latitude graphs. I would expect there to be no correlation between the baseline run without volcanoes and the model run with volcanoes [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post Research: Volcanic Aerosols Largely Responsible for Recent Warming Slowdown by WeatherDem.

    2013-03-05 08:15:30View | Delete

    If our nascent technological capability enabled us to survive during the last Ice Age, doesn’t it logically follow that our developed technological capability will help us to survive future warming? Isn’t there a difference between survival and comfort? We might not live with the same comfort level in a warmer world, but we’re likely to [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post Research: Volcanic Aerosols Largely Responsible for Recent Warming Slowdown by WeatherDem.

    2013-03-05 08:10:28View | Delete

    Thanks, normanb. Some comments: The end of the last ice age coincided with large-scale expansion of people. There were climatic as well as ecological stresses that people exerted that helped lead to the demise of most megafauna. You’re correct that volcanoes emit more than SO2, including H20 and CO2. An important point: volcanoes’ H20 and [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post Research: Volcanic Aerosols Largely Responsible for Recent Warming Slowdown by WeatherDem.

    2013-03-05 07:58:42View | Delete

    Elise- The following is the most up-to-date referenced source I could find (modified in 2011; references older materials): http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/interior/ It’s a short read, but I gleaned these points. The mantle is solid, though due to pressure the deeper portions approach the melting point of rocks. Volcanoes are thought to tap into the lower mantle in [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post Research: Volcanic Aerosols Largely Responsible for Recent Warming Slowdown by WeatherDem.

    2013-03-04 15:17:56View | Delete

    Elise- You raise a number of interesting questions that are outside my area of expertise. I don’t get the sense from what little I know about earthquake and volcano frequency that there is a substantial anthropogenic factor to it. I think when we talk about earthquakes and volcanoes, we have to acknowledge there is much [...]

  • ThumbnailClimate change skeptics used the recent slowdown in observed surface warming to claim that 20th century warming was temporary and that the Earth would return to lower average annual temperatures.  They offered up many potential explanations for the slowdown, none of which make physical sense.  The Sun’s 11-year cycle (often used to explain away warming), a [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post El Niño and La Niña Redefined by WeatherDem.

    2013-02-11 08:27:02View | Delete

    The storms likely to impact the northeast are interesting. Speaking from a place where significant drought is occurring, I’m envious of the moisture they’re receiving. I suspect we’ll hear soon that these storms occurred in response to NAO-spawned conditions, which arose from the record low sea ice extent in the Arctic last September. The UK [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post El Niño and La Niña Redefined by WeatherDem.

    2013-02-11 08:22:44View | Delete

    OB- Good question! La Niñas and El Niños vary in magnitude naturally. The magnitude of events doesn’t exhibit a trend: there are weak, moderate, and strong events for different reasons in different years. La Niña and El Niño will continue to occur in a world where average temperatures do have a trend: warmer. So La [...]

  • WeatherDem wrote a new diary post: El Niño and La Niña Redefined

    2013-02-08 11:21:38View | Delete

    ThumbnailThis is the week to publish lots of interesting events and articles apparently.  I have a number of things I would love to post about, but only so much time.  Here is one that relates directly to something I posted on earlier: warmest La Niña years .  Just a few short weeks after NOAA operations wrote that 2012′s [...]

  • That’s a very good point. I don’t use my dryer very much anymore – winter or summer. In addition to other energy saving techniques, my electricity usage is considerably lower than it was previously. That is money that I can use for something else besides my utility’s profit margin. And my HOA is one of [...]

  • This is a class paper I wrote this week and thought it might be of interest to readers here.  I can provide more information if desired.  The point to the paper was to write concisely for a policy audience about a decision support planning method in a subject that interests me.  The teacher instructed us [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post NASA & NOAA: 2012 Was In Top-10 Warmest Years For Globe On Record by WeatherDem.

    2013-01-25 07:58:02View | Delete

    To follow up on emission/concentration pathways, you should look into the best-case RCP scenario. It’s ludicrous (makes the B2 scenario look extremely polluting) but was still used as a scenario in recent climate modeling efforts. In short, negative carbon emissions supposedly take place later this century. Anyone want to explain to me how that’s supposed [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post NASA & NOAA: 2012 Was In Top-10 Warmest Years For Globe On Record by WeatherDem.

    2013-01-25 07:55:02View | Delete

    You bring up an interesting point: the difference in measured air quality values by the Chinese versus Americans. The American embassy has received a lot of heat for publishing their particulate readings without Chinese approval. As you point out, the measurements quite often differ substantially. If the average Chinese person had access to American information [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post NASA & NOAA: 2012 Was In Top-10 Warmest Years For Globe On Record by WeatherDem.

    2013-01-25 07:50:04View | Delete

    Thanks for reading & commenting wayoutwest.

    Suffice to say that our economic system isn’t the most efficient at balancing multiple goals at the same time. Unfortunately, we don’t have anything else as a viable option.

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post NASA & NOAA: 2012 Was In Top-10 Warmest Years For Globe On Record by WeatherDem.

    2013-01-25 07:46:59View | Delete

    The oceanic sea surface height change is non-linear over the past half-century or so (period with reliable records). The same can be said for land-based ice-sheet mass loss, near-surface temperatures, …

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post NASA & NOAA: 2012 Was In Top-10 Warmest Years For Globe On Record by WeatherDem.

    2013-01-25 07:44:42View | Delete

    The 2C warming probably was too conservative an estimate. This estimate was based on climate scientists’ poor assumption that policymakers wouldn’t allow the globe to warm 2°C above the pre-industrial average due to the consequences that would follow. More technically, scientists focused on the SRES B1 scenario instead of the A1B, A2, or A1FI scenarios, [...]

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post NASA & NOAA: 2012 Was In Top-10 Warmest Years For Globe On Record by WeatherDem.

    2013-01-24 07:43:07View | Delete

    Thanks for reading & replying.
    The lack of progress has convinced me that past approaches should either be abandoned or overhauled. We can’t expect grand results when so few results have been achieved thus far.

  • WeatherDem commented on the diary post NASA & NOAA: 2012 Was In Top-10 Warmest Years For Globe On Record by WeatherDem.

    2013-01-24 07:40:58View | Delete

    Thanks for reading a long reply! I am definitely aware that there are scientists who would characterize the situation as an emergency. I respect their opinion, but as I’ve expanded from strictly atmospheric science into the social sciences, I’ve seen evidence (in the peer-reviewed social science literature) that such a characterization isn’t helpful in securing [...]

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