Update: Since posting this diary, I’ve read Rahmstorf’s translated article that triggered the blog post that that I had quoted (within another quote, by an obvious English speaker). Well, what can I say but “Mea Culpa”. Although the blog post within the native English blog post is (for me) machine translated German, commenting on what is, for me, also machine translated German, I can’t see that my understanding of what was being said is a fair representation of Rahmstorf.
While it’s not new news that the the IPCC sea level rise estimates are way off, from Rahmstorf’s article (translated by my Chrome browser), Rahmstorf is not pretending that he has forgotten the previously determined, experimentally determined value. Nor is he simply lying about values that he previously signed off on (in the IPCC 4th assessment).
He apparently has such faith in the computer models that, even though they’re way off in terms of sea level (as well as numerous other defects, both theoretical and experimentally observed), and apparently have not been corrected to give more accurate sea level rise since 2007, he still feels comfortable comparing them to real measurements and saying that this facet of global warming is worse than the models.
I frankly don’t think he was being sensationalistic or dishonest in his discussion of sea level rise (which is not the same as saying that I don’t think he’s wrong); rather, I think the German blogger gave a misleading twist to what Rahmstorf was saying.
I usually read WattsUpWithThat.com, ClimateRealists.org (who generally poo poo Green House Gas theory, and thus the generally ignorant pronouncements of climate catastrophist fans about “denying anthropogenic” causation of heat changes has some reality, within a minority of dissidents) and Lubos Motl’s blog, which also carries articles on superstring theory, as well as political stuff and assorted articles about Motl’s Czech homeland). My jumping off point for this story, however, what climatedepot.com, which does have a more “fanboy” appearance, and tends not to carry original analysis (unlike WattsUpWithThat.com, which regularly tears apart shabby climate “science” papers “in house”, and debunks ridiculous claims, both by catastrophists with Ph.D.’s, as well as those that obviously don’t know any science; Motls also does some original analysis; CR has some guest scientists – like the other two – but I don’t think they do any analysis in house).
Himself. His 2007 self, to be precise. I kid you not.
In his latest claim, Rahmstorf claims that just a few years ago, sea levels were thought to be rising 2 mm/year. Suddenly the sea level, the satellites say, is actually now rising at 3.2 mm/ year – that’s 60% faster then they thought!
But as Kulke points out in his piece titled False climate alarm surrounds an old hat, Rahmstorf is suffering from (selective) amnesia, and forgot what he said in the UN-IPCC report of (2007): Rahmstorf back then:
Satellite measurements show a rise of 3.1 mm/year for the period 1993-2003 – and if you consider the measurements through 2006, it’s even 3.3 mm/year.”