
A cold day at the University of Virginia (Photo: Douglas A Melchior / Wikimedia Commons)
When I first heard news in the beginning of the summer of a coup underway at the University of Virginia, I wondered idly if it had anything to do with climate change—specifically, ousted (and since reinstated) President’s Teresa Sullivan’s defense of the former UVA professor behind the “hockey stick” graph documenting its existence against state attorney general Ken Cuccinelli’s demands for every email/paper/grant application/log/cocktail napkin/etc. he touched during his seven years at the school.
Well, this is starting to look like the most depressingly accurate hunch I’ve had in my career as a journalist—and trust me, the “hunch” thing gets way too easy at a certain point in this business.
First it emerged that Sullivan had not simply defended Mann from Cuccinelli’s itchy subpoena finger, she’d been campaigning to hire him back to UVA. To a cushy deluxe professorship endowed by coup co-conspirator Mark Kington, no less! It’s as if she didn’t even care that Ken Cuccinelli is running for governor next year!
Now, in Sullivan’s defense, it wasn’t her idea to bring the man the denial lobby has dubbed the “Jerry Sandusky of climate change” back to UVA; credit for that goes to the environmental science department, which apparently thought they could just hire whoever the majority of the department voted to hire pending Board of Visitors approval like it says on the endowment package.
Of course, the Board of Visitors so did not approve. In fact, according to a new legal brief filed in a denial lobby court case against UVA, the Board had apparently been lobbying the administration to conduct its own investigation into Mann’s possible “misconduct” in the “Climategate” affair, despite the conclusion of two separate independent investigations that Mann had not written anything remotely academically or ethically un-kosher in any of his “Climategate” emails.
But I guess the Board didn’t feel comfortable rubbing its fingerprints where Ken Cuccinelli’s had been, because the decision never got to their pay grade; it was nixed by Dean Meredith Woo—who, if not an active coup co-conspirator, was certainly happy to slip into the role of the Board’s Eddie Haskell when the time came all of three weeks later.
What’s funny is that the more I learned about Sullivan and the Visitors who tried to curtail her stay at UVA, the more inevitable a putsch appeared. Sullivan spent most of her academic career co-writing seminal reports and books on economic injustice with Elizabeth Warren, of all blasphemous Marxist zealots. Half the board’s members had been appointed by Virginia’s current Republican governor—whose Democratic predecessor had appointed guys like amphetamine billionaire Randal J. Kirk, who appears to essentially believe higher education should be restructured into a three-silo system of Ayn Rand studies, etiquette and patent production. I might have dropped the climate change theory altogether, but for the utterly surreal reaction of former vice rector and still-vacant environmental science professorship underwriter Mark Kington, when I called him for comment.
Kington, who was the only UVA board member to resign over the failed plot, flipped out at me with an unhinged-ness I had not experienced since I wrote a dumb “Heard on the Street” column in 2003 predicting a “short squeeze” in shares of one of the stocks I covered as a 24-year-old Wall Street Journal reporter. At the time I don’t think I was entirely aware of the difference between airing your 24-year-old “counterintuitive” opinion about a topic in a “Heard on the Street” column as opposed to, say, Slate, but here it is: “Heard on the Street” is read by approximately 100% of hedge fund managers whereas Slate is read by possibly that one hedge fund manager who writes for N+1. In any case, the stock—while still headed to zero in the medium term bc what the hell did I know—shot up 22% that day, and some trader who probably lost his job over it called me up and unleashed a fusillade of barely comprehensible fatwas upon me, and I would have forgotten all about it because it just seemed so silly that he was taking it so personally, but Kington’s tantrum brought it all flooding back.
Only this time, I am older, wiser and not remotely as “important” as I was then. I have no institutional sanction capable of converting my half-baked amateur “analysis” into self-fulfilling prophecy. Somehow, I had incurred the wrath of a high net worth institutional money manager all on my own.
It might have been comical, if my lucky “hunch” hadn’t been informed by an abortive year-long loser odyssey I had recently abandoned into George Mason University, a former UVA extension campus that doubles as a clearinghouse for GOP corporate influence-peddling and propaganda schemes. I actually took some classes at GMU in 1999, one of which was by far the best I took in my somewhat abridged college career, so I had a soft spot for the place when I began delving into its institutional history and governance. As you can glean from today’s introduction to GMU’s central role in the climate science denial lobby, however, that soft spot was dangerously on the verge of being overrun with track marks. What I learned exhausted my incredulity over and over again.
But the GMU model is starting to look like the future of higher education, I’m afraid, so do yourselves a favor and don’t let anyone you care about bother with the eternally expanding zombie loan balance required to afford it.



72 Comments

Recommended. And
cries out for another diary.
Personally I would recommend that anyone who really wants to attend college to try a find one abroad.
Higher education in this country has become on big very expensive joke. Not worth your time or money.
Thank you. Recommended.
I wonder why the powerful are still at this game since they have already won the war against Global Warming.
Could it be that they can never forgive those they have wronged.
Ahah! Good job. Decapitation of Jefferson’s baby by a Libertarian fraudversity. What it must be like in that hornets’ nest. I get nauseous imagining.
You get nauseated.
You are neauseous.
Sorry, Ludwig, I just couldn’t resist. I know, I know. That’s so juvenile.
Your diary says
I looked at one of those “investigations’” write-ups, a ditty that barely broke 5 pages, by the NSF. Here’s a quote from it,
An investigations that says an investigation is not not warranted! Now, there’s a real money-saver!
Would you please post links to the other “investigations”?
Wot, I can’t say I got hungry anymore?
You don’t need to worry about this, your oily friends have already won this war. You can move on to telling us about the benefits of AGW like the oil Bonanza in the Artic.
Drill baby drill
Hopefully, the author will show more curiosity about what are called the “investigations”, than you.
As for “oily friends”, this is a gratuitous insult, on your part.
Finally, while you don’t seem the sort of person who can give a serious answer, at least on this topic, I have to wonder in what sense you believe the “oily” people have won. I believe that they “win”, in the sense that there’s only a fraction of the effort to move to 21st century sources of energy that there could be.
However, the public mind has been pretty thoroughly indoctrinated with global warming catastrophism memes whose connection to reality is tenuous, at best – and I don’t see that situation improving, much. I mean, how many young people know that Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth, was found, in a British court of law, to have 9 scientific errors? How many know just how badly Hansen’s predictions have deviated from reality, since 2000? How many even realize that the phrase “climate change denier” is, on it’s face, a contradiction, as applied to scientist dissidents? (Which just happens to rhyme with “Holocaust Denier” – funny, that.) Do you really think dissident climate scientists don’t believe in Ice Ages, hence a changing climate?
I think the global warming religion is useful to deceitful elites, as well as power-loving bureaucrats, to promote world government and centralized control, the governments (at least in the US; I’ll guess Europe is similar) control most of funding for climate research, and there’s an awful lot of money available for going with the climate orthodoxy – yes, even if the scientific case for it totally collapses.
Laymen believers in climate catastrophism ultimately believe in very sophisticated computer models which, nevertheless, have “sweeping oversimplifications of the global climate system and its mechanistic intricacies.” I recently saw a lecture by Freeman Dyson, and some of his complaints about incomplete modeling are decades old!
The heart of the matter here has nothing to do with that. It’s about propaganda and agnotology and corporate speech in general taking over not only our public discourse but our institutions of higher education, which I consider a much graver immediate threat than climate change. Mann is not a “catastrophist.” He is a scientist. Climate change is just the only area in which reality has made a decent defense
I’m afraid you’re ignoring the forest, for what is basically a tree.
I’m not going to dig up references, but wattsupwiththat.com has carried stories on the intimidation, maltreatment, and career damage that came to academic scientists who wouldn’t toe the catastrophist viewpoint. I don’t have statistics to prove my case, but I believe that in general, it’s questioning climate catatrophism that’ll get you fired, not the opposite. If you want to do so, better to wait until after you get tenure.
As for “propaganda”, you ignored my point about the phrase “climate change denier”, which is, on it’s face, absurd. And yet, the phrase is freely used in media, in general.
I’d call that a remarkable, propagandistic coup.
I wonder how many people who repeat the claim about “97% of climate scientists consensus” realize that it’s 97% of all of 77 scientists, who agreed with an imprecise statement that many so-called “deniers” would agree with:
Final point about the so-called deniers: there’s a book on them, but climate propaganda hasn’t informed the public about it’s main conclusions. Now, why would that be?
I guess I wonder if they are even scientific ‘dissidents’; maybe something more akin to the Great Silent Majority, who are actually scientifically correct but politically incorrect, as it were.
oh good grief. Maybe because the primary heroic denier in that book, Ed Wegman, is not simply SOMEONE WHO KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE but a SERIAL PLAGIARIST who PLAGIARIZED OVER 30 PAGES OF THE GODDAMN CLIMATE DENIAL REPORT HE SUBMITTED INTO THE CONGRESSIONAL RECORD from such obscure sources as WIKIPEDIA.
Ah-h-h-h, Wegman has blamed a graduate student for plagiarism in a 2008 paper of which he was a co-author. As he was also team leader, he bears responsibility, whether or not he knew of the plagiarism, which he says he does not.
That paper was about Mann’s social network, though with Mann’s identity ‘hidden’, and was 2 years after Wegman’s report to Congress. Mann’s social network may be suggestive about many things, but I doubt that it’s directly relevant to any of Mann’s scientific claims or statistical methods*. If you know otherwise, kindly inform us.
Regarding Wegman’s 2006 report to Congress,
I’d be interested to know if these reports were anemic, like the 5 page NSF report on Mann….
Do you consider Freeman Dyson a “heroic denier”, or not? He’s a Nobel laureate in physics, and has actually examined climate models, as well as done some climate modeling, himself.
* Regarding Mann’s fabled statistical methods, would you kindly give us your opinion about the criticism that “Mann’s methodology would generate a hockey stick almost independently of the data input, by feeding it spectral noise.” (emphasis mine)
I get the feeling that you think a Ph.D. statistician is not fit to critique even the statistical methods of a true-blue climate scientist like Mann. A position that I would find laughable.
BTW, when I was in an applied math graduate program, the two main specialities were analysis and statistics. One needn’t know much statistics, at all (maybe none; I really don’t remember) to take a degree in applied math, with the analysis specialty.
A recent talk by Freeman Dyson on climate change: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cJRkNwfJIk
Jeezus, the anti-AGW Flat Earthers are just incapable of human decency, aren’t they?
Note that Sullivan has opposed paying UVA workers and contract workers a living wage, no matter what nice things she put in books (such as that everyone should get a living wage). Note also that there are various other similar explanations for her firing.
This conversations reminds me of faculty meetings. Arguing about one thing, to cover really fighting about another!
Climate Change Denier = We wanna live our live styles, consume as much as we want, and make as much money as we can! Leave us alone, we like it this way! Our actions have NO consequences, and we will be dead before they do! Shut up!
Global Warming believers = Hey everyone! We are tired of Big Oil running the world, manipulating the markets, waging horrific wars, and polluting the air, land and water. Please help us find a way to change our lifestyles so that we live healthier lives and fight less wars over resources. Let us look back in our history to ways in which we built hones that did not require so much energy, grew fresh produce that did not have to be trucked across the nations, and used windmills to generate the small amount of energy we needed. Let’s have our governments subsidize non-polluting energy sources to the same extent as they do BIG OIL and BIG COAL, and dangerous NUCLEAR power. OUR WAY IS MORE PURE! YOUR WAY HAS HORRIFIC consequences!
Climate Change Deniers: Shut up! You can’t prove that! You are hippies! WE hate you too! Oil does not really pollute! Wars are not fought over oil! If we drill the oil here, we can keep it here! (But we can get a higher price if we ship it somewhere else so we will do that, because there is nothing wrong with making money!) Shut up! I am not doing anything wrong! I will make you shut up!
Not the way I see it. “I will make you shut up!”, seems a succinct capsule of Tkacik’s issue. Not much beatin’ around the bush there.
Metamars never gets to the point of saying, “AGW is a hoax,” but he seems to hover around it. To his credit he references Freeman Dyson, who has stated that he knows AGW is real and caused by burning fossil fuels, he just doesn’t trust current models as complete enough to make sound predictions. (To which statement his credentials would seem to lend some weight.) And Dyson says he just thinks other things like poverty and disease are more important. (To which opinion his credentials add no more gravity than those of my nextdoor neighbor.)
Dyson does refer to the ostracism of heretics. Now we get to the faculty meeting analogy. That is so hoary as to be laughable. What faculty member has not been humiliated, even ostracized, and maybe for a look or a word, not for any actual herecy?
In point of fact, metamars has, on numerous occassions, correctly (to the best of his knowledge) presented the consensus opinion of dissident scientists (mostly following Bob Carter; good, insightful, statistical data doesn’t appear to exist). And that is, that anthropogenic CO2 production has lead to a slight warming of the earth, and increasing CO2 will lead to yet more warming, but very slight.
Even the climate catastrophists don’t claim that CO2 will directly lead to a hothouse Earth; rather, they postulate positive feedback mechanisms, whereby a tidge of CO2 will lead to increased water vapor, which is a much more substantial green house gas than CO2.
Some aspects of these supposed feedbacks are actually measurable, and measuring them didn’t turn out the way the catastrophists expected. See Lindzen, e.g..
The Kwapitalist Kwistian Korp is at the gate.
I believe you stated in an earlier diary that you work for the oil industry in Texas, correct me if i’m wrong. The point of my short statement above is that International Energy has won the political war and delayed meaningful change in our energy policy.
As to the science of this issue dissent is a good thing, it requires the proponents of a theory to be rigorous in defending their claims, which they have done. Predicting the effects of AGW is where science is the weakest because our computers and modeling may not be up to the task. Actually most of the models have been too conservative in their predictions. We are seeing many of the effects happen much earlier than predicted, extreme weather and rapid Arctic melting are just two.
The real problem is how ignorant and easily manipulated many Amerikans are about science and the scientific method. Most don’t understand how their auto works and try explaning how their computer works and watch their eyes glaze over, it’s pure magic to them. This is no suprise since a large minority still believe the earth is 6k years old and Jesus walked with dinosaurs.
Al Gore was the worst possible spokesman for AGW for political reasons and he’s fat, lives in a big house and might get richer off of it.
Freeman Dyson is not a climate scientist but he believes that AGW is real, his beef is with the predictions that are being made and the treatment of dissenters.
Scientists are not Gods they have the same failings as the rest of us. The real issue is that our Capitalist Overloards want AGW to continue, there are huge Profits to be made and to Hell with future generations.
Lol. I’ve lived in TX on 3 occasions, but never worked for any petrochemical industry.
This certainly isn’t true of many of Hansen’s predictions.
I’ve seen headlines like these, but what of the climate models’ temperature predictions, on a global scale? What of sea level rise? AFAIK, the standard predictions have been wrong on the upside, since roughly 2000. And do we really have a good handle on what constitutes normal variability, given that the satellite era for climate measurements is only about 40 years old, temperature data for the deeper oceans (ARGOS) only about 8 years old, and widespread land temperature readings about, I’ll guess, 100 – 150 years old?
So there are really no winners to root for in that saga?
Elite no more. UVA’s rep takes a serious tumble. They’ve got lots of other trouble, too, including falling revenue and state aid that has frayed various programs.
Here are examples of how a couple of most endangered states are preparing for the consequences. Note: Surprise! One is Virginia.
http://hamptonroads.com/2012/06/words-not-action-coastal-flooding
Read Complete Story:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/10/496982/virginia-lawmaker-says-sea-level-rise-is-a-left-wing-term-excises-it-from-state-report-on-coastal-flooding/
Read complete article at:
http://scim.ag/NCsealevel
Science 22 June 2012: 1486-1487.
Here’s a prediction: the US teevee ‘meteorologists’ will start expressing temperatures only in Celsius — 40 or 45 degrees won’t sound so terrifying.
When juries exonerate someone they only use 2 words “not guilty”.
Tell us what is the minimum word count for finding that someone has not done what well-paid shills have smeared him as having done.
1000 words? 5000 words? 10,000? A million?
Would that be the Bob Carter who is NOT a climate scientist, but rather a geologist who is funded by the Heartland Institute that gets it’s money from the energy industry?
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Bob_Carter
That Bob Carter?
As for Lindzen and the water vapor obfuscation, here’s what happened to THAT dodge from this former Tobacco/Cancer link denialist.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Richard_S._Lindzen
Clearly you have an old talking points email – time to get it updated.
“George Mason University provost Peter Stearns announced on 22 February 2012 that charges of scientific misconduct had been investigated by two separate faculty committees: the one investigating the Wegman Report gave a unanimous finding that “no misconduct was involved” in the 2006 report to Congress”
GMU, now being a center of climate change deniers, is SUCH a reputible source for validation of Wegman’s work. Surely you see the irony in your attempt to use such shakey history to prove the validity of any research.
Wow, what a lame argument! At least the jury renders a verdict based on a trial, for which there’s a public record.
You seem to be asking for a hard and fast rule, but using your lame analogy, how many days must a jury trial for murder go, before the jury can render a rational verdict?
A succinct answer, that always holds, is “It depends”.
If you think the 5 page NSF ditty which ‘exonerates’ Mann is enough to satisfy Mann’s serious critics, do tell us, won’t you?
In your space-time continuum, does Steve McIntyre qualify as a well-paid shill who smeared Mann? How big was his boodle? Was it over a million dollars, or something more modest?
Do tell – inquiring minds would like to know.
Gallogarden:
Try See No Evil, Speak Little Truth, Break Rules, Blame Others, the story of the GMU “investigation” that Moe mentioned.
Stearns told multiple untruths in his February letter, and then blamed the original complainant.
You’re the one who is putting forward a lame page count argument.
NSF not enough for you? Alright, here’s Penn State’s Report which agrees with the NSF. 19 pages, since you’re apparently counting.
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/Final%20Investigation%20Report.pdf
Here’s their conclusion. Notice the phrase “after careful review of all available evidence” Kind of describes what happens with jury deliberations in a trial doesn’t it?
The Investigatory Committee, after careful review of all available evidence, determined
that there is no substance to the allegation against Dr. Michael E. Mann, Professor,
Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University.
More specifically, the Investigatory Committee determined that Dr. Michael E. Mann did
not engage in, nor did he participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions that seriously
deviated from accepted practices within the academic community for proposing,
conducting, or reporting research, or other scholarly activities.
The decision of the Investigatory Committee was unanimous.
Here’s the US District Court of Appeals implicitly backing Mann in it’s decision to block VA’s Atty General Cucinnelli when he tried to block action by the EPA – his case was based party on Mann’s supposed unreliability.
http://www.southernstudies.org/2012/06/federal-court-rejects-virginia-attorney-generals-effort-to-block-climate-action.html
The court said some very interesting in it’s decision:
And of course this is what you are doing here. Mann has been exonorated, by multiple authorities. But YOU’RE lame argument is that this must be re-litigated again and again and again.
Gee, I don’t know. How much does a mining company executive and consultant (with no climate science background) pull in?
I think there is a lesson to be learned here and Meta has displayed it very well. It is relatively easy for a small group of doubters or hired guns to drag the debate on endlessly. You only have to disregard investigations and conclusions by ignoring them or claiming there was some vague conspiracy.
Since some scientists have committed fraud all scientists are suspect and must prove their claims even to people who don’t understand their work.
Quote a few so called experts and expose a few projections that are not perfectly accurate then you have proof that something is wrong with the whole enterprise.
It’s been a very successful tactic and has stopped the movement to do something concrete about AGW.
What, no response?
I guess in your space-time continuum there are strict limits to what inquiring minds will allow themselves to know.
CGX Energy is an oil and gas exploration company.
I don’t know if McIntyre still has financial interests.
While I cannot know what he is thinking, more of his behavior seems ego driven, the latter being not unknown among older guys who are happy anyone listens to them or gives them a chance to speak. He certainly has gotten free trips to Washington (from George Marshall Institute) and likely elsewhere (via Heartland). McKitrick and he were certainly recruited via the sort of strategy found in the <a href="http://www.euronet.nl/users/e_wesker/ew@shell/API-prop.html”>1998 GCSCT plan.
“Identify, recruit and train a team of five independent scientists to participate in media outreach. These will be individuals who do not have a long history of visibility and/or participation in the climate change debate. Rather, this team will consist of new faces who will add their voices to those recognized scientists who already are vocal. ”
You seem to be a skeptical person, metamars. This is a good thing. Are you able to level this incredulity towards other intangible areas of (government) control? For example how do you feel about; corporate control of the media, austerity-based economic policy, the War on Terror, Citzens United, etc.
The issue with global climate skeptics is that this is one of the few topics on which there is unrelenting disbelief and assertions of conspiracy. If thousands of scientists, media people and politicians can conspire to lie to you about climate catastrophe, what other scales do they place before your eyes? It seems if they could successfully dupe millions of people into believing in an "climatic upheaval hoax" and maintaining the ruse, certainly they can lie about things that conservatives or libertarians allegedly believe.
You state that you believe that so-called "power-loving bureaucrats" and "deceitful elites" promote some sort of global dictatorship, fomented by a global-warming ruse, yet private industry has no similar tactics? You even cite funding and money as a reason, yet capitalism's raison d'etre is generating profit– money! Why would only politicians lie on an international scale to make money? Corruption only exists in government? Why is that?
Are you completely ignorant of the last 3-4 years of international finance? Several financial concerns demonstrably brought the entire world(!) to the brink of financial ruin, while steeped in lies and corruption, selling toxic assets to unwitting dupes while intentionally betting against them. You have never been employed by a corporation, if you believe there aren"t also 'deceitful elites" and "power-loving bureaucrats" in the boardroom and corner offices. These people answer only to shareholders, not millions of voters.
Yet only power-mongering government apparatchiks and criminal scientists, with the help of media prostitutes, lie to you about things of global significance?
In other words, you have no proof that McIntyre was paid for dissecting Mann’s work; and furthermore, you have no idea, apparently, how much he was paid for doing such, if, indeed, he was paid for doing such.
I’m sure you know that minerals and oil are two different type of substances, even if both are found under the ground….
Furthermore, you have made no case as to how McIntyre has “smeared” Mann. Why don’t you tell us, specifically, how Mann was “smeared” by McIntyre. I did a quick google search for ‘McIntyre smeared Mann’, and came across this, by the now-disgraced Peter Glieck. Glieck’s smear accusation links to Penn State President Fired, which, frankly, seems carefully and non-sensationally written. I.e., it is not a smear, though I can easily see why climate catastrophists would prefer that nobody connect any dots, at all, with Penn State’s pedophilia scandal. AFAICT, here are the two candidates for what the climate catastrophists consider a “smear”.
1
2
McIntyre shows the absurdity of a clear example of Penn State’s rationalization, first by quoting Atlantic Monthly:
and then by showing what an equivalent statement, applied to pedophile Sandusky, would look like:
Apparently, Glieck wants us to think that McIntyre wants us to think that Mann is a pedophile – at least, that’s the only sense I can make of the “smear” allegation. What do you say? Where is the “smear”? What is the “smear”?
If this is what Glieck was insinuating, shame on him. This would be as intellectually dishonest as doing what some “Journ-o-list” lefties encouraged doing, to protect Obama’s reputation, during the campaign of 2008, to anybody who raised questions about Jeremiah Wrights less patriotic vitriol. Viz., accuse such people of being racists.
It’s sad to think that people would deliberately smear others for political gain, but that’s the reality.
I looked over the Penn State report, which does, indeed, look meatier than what I recall of the NSF report. However, it mentions Briffa only once, and doesn’t seriously address the question of Mann’s scientific credibility in producing his hockey stick. Sure, it’s fine to ask Mann for his side of things. But, what of McIntyre’s central claim that Mann’s technique would likely give a hockey stick, even feeding in spectral noise? What sort of “investigation”, worthy of the name, would not specifically ask about that? And not just of Mann, but of his qualified critics?
==========================
Finally, I’ll quote from a post by McIntyre that I just read, in researching this post. I’ve wondered about the claims that Mann’s hockey stick has been independently reproduced using other methods and, I suppose, other data sets:
I reject your framing, which is one of vast conspiracy vs. non-vast conspiracy. This framing is worse than useless – it obscures the real issues.
I suggest you study Chomsky on media filters and ‘manufacturing consent’, as well as reading the books Not Even Wrong and The Trouble with Physics, to learn about how science becomes pathological in other areas than climate science. Note well, please, that at least in the case of Smolin’s book, he has written, explicitly, about pathology in scientific communities that extends outside the niche world of string theorists.
You can google metamars, Smolin, Woit, as well as their titles, for my forum posts on this subject.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying that climate scientists haven’t conspired to suppress competing theories. We have direct evidence for that, plus it’s a reasonable inference, given the ‘business’ that Svensmark and his team were put through, before their ground-breaking work was accepted for publication.
It’s the notion of “grand conspiracy”, often put forth completely disconnected from notions of parallel anthropological processes, that could synergistically fertilize a more dominant mode of pathology, that’s ‘not even useless’, as a framing.
Go there if you must, but don’t think that I’m going to entertain you by further replying against an absurd framing.
Denis Rancourt has also given space, on his blogs, to the writings of David Noble, who is worth reading on the subject of peer review. (Though, IIRC, he strangely seems ignorant of it’s origin, even if he’s correct about when it became dominant.)
mm, I have not been reading your comments on GW. You remind me of O’Donkeytale in your energetic verbosity and right-parallel leftism.
Still, I am intrigued by your breadth. What is the origin of peer review that Noble egregiously ignored?
I think intellectual alliances do not adequately explain these collusions. When technocrats have faith that their standards are the way of the world, they shield the colluding agencies which direct them. It’s of a piece with their enlightenment fable.
Anyway, carry on. Maybe some day you’ll disseminate the GW expose, but I doubt it.
Metamars: Do you have any idea what science looks like? Science is measurements and understanding towards a self-consistent model that explains and predicts system behavior. Global warming is a question of conservation of energy: how much does the temperature of the atmosphere have to increase to radiate away the energy from the additional sunlight trapped by greenhouse gases. Nowadays, not even your crackpot sites deny that CO2 has skyrocketed. The issue is to explain what that will do. Your sites claim the effect will be small; real scientists would give defensible explanations how the earth would restore energy balance with only a small temperature rise. Real scientists would show data indicating that the actual temperature and atmospheric behavior was consistent with that model.
Lindzen is one of the few to attempt anything like a small-increase model: his model proposes huge changes in the distribution and ratio of low and high clouds to change the earth`s reflectivity. The changes have not been observed and Lindzen has lost credibility by refusing to respond to self-consistency and math errors in his work. The large cloud response is inconsistent with observed temperature effects of volcanic ash and is so large that oscillations would be likely. Dyson is a great man but if you read what he has said it`s not based on real analysis or on any real learning. For instance, he claims a big plant growth response, despite the fact that biogrowth is primarily nutrient rather than solar-limited.
The rest of the sites you reference are all debate artists and selective citers. If you really had an inquisitive mind you would have spent some time goggling the refutations to the talking points you cite so glibly but shallowly. For instance, the solubility of water in the atmosphere is not magic but hundred year old physics and has behaved exactly as predicted.
Thirty years ago when I started reading about global warming it was an interesting but unproven idea, now anyone can look at the data and know that it`s real. Nothing wrong survives thirty years of dissection. None of your popular books on the supposed flakiness of science can identify anything as tested as global warming that remains wrong for thirty years.
Do you think “follow the money” is a good rule of thumb, for investigative journalists? If so, do you think it only applies to conscious acts of bribery, or can it take the (more usual) form of enlightened career self-interest?
If I was in graduate school for climate science, and actually wanted to make a living at it after graduation, I’d keep my doubts about it’s intellectual shortcomings to myself.
Follow the money, in it’s more common form, would demand so much.
Here’s my proposal for detecting overall bias amongst climate scientists: carefully poll the retired ones as to their beliefs.
Recall that the recent letter by 49 NASA affiliated personnel against climate activism advocacy (as opposed to empirical science) were by former employees.
Retirement confers a degree of financial independence…
Oh, yeah. Then ask them if they conspired in any previous, secret dissidence, or if the individuals pursuing conventional careers as climate scientists generally conspire to suppress competing theories.
You don’t need grand conspiracies to read tea leaves.
By “global warming”, I assume you mean catastrophic AGW. Most dissident scientists don’t dispute AGW, due to green house gases. (As per Bob Carter, which roughly accords with my reading. I’m only aware of a couple of dissident scientists who dispute any GHG effects, at all.)
Why don’t you disambiguate, for us, whether you are a believer in CAGW, like Mann or AGW, like Lindzen, Spencer, Carter, Shaviv, Svensmark, etc.
Shame on you! What you are referring to is the the inverse regression method of checking a calculation – not the original calculation itself. Using this kind of language is the height of intellectual dishonesty.
http://klimazwiebel.blogspot.com/2010/08/mcshane-and-wyner-on-climate.html
And CGX Energy, for which McIntyre is a paid “advisor” is an oil company.
Also, what is your opinion not just about the future global climate, but of the US temperature records? (I.e., the ‘past’). Watts has recently confirmed his complaints about siting issues, though it’s too soon to tell if it’ll hold up. (It’s still in draft form, I believe.)
If Watts, et. al, are right, that alone would deep-six your claim that nothing as tested as global warming can remain wrong for 30 years.
To clarify: not that warming didn’t occur in the 20th century, but the degree of warming in the 20th century, for the US, was substantially wrong.
Who are you accusing of being intellectually dishonest?
@metamars
“Also, what is your opinion not just about the future global climate, but of the US temperature records? (I.e., the ‘past’). Watts has recently confirmed his complaints about siting issues, though it’s too soon to tell if it’ll hold up. (It’s still in draft form, I believe.)”
First, what’s your response to the real science study Watts is supposedly going to respond to which addresses his prior claims? Watts repeats the same words over and over again without evidence.
“If Watts, et. al, are right, that alone would deep-six your claim that nothing as tested as global warming can remain wrong for 30 years.”
Nice lateral. You cited popular science books on the supposed vulnerability of science to large errors. I point out none of your sources gave evidence of anything like what you claim about climate science. You completely ignore the point.
My view of global warming is that shifts of government policy to support renewable energy sources and and conservation over gas releasing technologies would be a hugely more affordable than the misery and expense of the weather changes and droughts that are coming out of global warming. Human society, cities and agriculture are severely dependent on the weather patterns we have now and large changes will be enormously expensive.
Metamars you seem to be peddling a bit more nuanced and lawyer like version of the latest denier party line as stated by one of your leaders CEO of Exxon-Mobil Rex Tillerson just a few weeks ago in a speech in NYC he gave to some org. In that speech, Rex basically didn’t even try and deny that AGW was happening, instead he referred to it as an “engineering problem” and that humanity would make the necessary adaptations, such as moving our growing areas etc. He whined a bit about “the models” issue, but seemed to realize if he went too far down that path he might find himself in a losing argument, given as other commenters here have mentioned the models so far have been largely on the too conservative side. Since that speech I’ve been increasingly aware of the use of the words ADAPT & ADAPTATION being used on conservative print media sites , Cable TV and talk radio when discussing this issue. The total denial crowd is losing out even on the conservative side of this controversy. Rex signaled everyone in the denialist camp that it’s now all about ADAPTING to the changes coming, not any longer denying them. Of course Rex greatly minimized what is happening, but considering his position that’s no surprise. The surprise is that it appears even the Energy sector knows its fighting a rear guard action now and is itself adapting it’s own positions to something a bit more in line with reality, instead of trying to force everyone to put their heads in the sand. Now it’s all about adaptation and engineering, it’s going to be interesting to see where this PR game takes us.
No evidence, you say? What are you, a comedian? Here’s the second page of references from the draft version of the new Watts, et. al. paper that I link to, above. There’s 9 full pages of references, all told, like this (plus part of another page):
Are reading from a script?
As this paper is about re-analyzing historical data, are you suggesting that Watts, et. al., just made the data up?
Lomborg is the guy to check out about adapting to the middling IPCC scenarios.
Assuming you’re referring to his differences with Dr. Muller, re the US data, he’s discussed this on his web site. Basically, Watts uses higher quality data.
Agreed.
I think the answer here is to understand that there is nothing wrong with having doubts about anything, however, the benefit of the doubt must go toward protecting the Earth’s bio-sphere.
Thus, even if metamars can dig up a few people who question the science, that is not the standard that needs to be met for continuing this dangerous experiment. To continue playing this dangerous game with the Earth’s atmosphere, the burden of proof is on people like metamars. We must stop increasing the Earth’s CO2 levels until it can be absolutely proven that it is safe to do so.
I think you’ve had ample opportunity to throw pound and after pound of spaghetti against the wall and try to get something to stick.
Rather than this latest attempt on your part to head to the pasta bowl for a fresh handful, let’s summarize where we’ve been.
Mann has been exonerated of all smears by multiple authorities – whether you like the length of their reports or not. (Or the color of the covers or any other desperate thing you light on to try to keep up the attacks on Mann )
Speaking of desperate things you are lighting on: McInytre – who is in the employ of an energy company, has no training in climate science and is clearly a paid shill – has at the heart of his criticism a twisting of names of one of Mann’s method for double-checking his calculations. It’s called inverse regression and you can make that sound like “Using the numbers upside down”.
You complain that this “analysis” is not to be found in the reports of the many groups who vindicate Mann. While I am sure that the energy industry and other vested interests would love nothing more than to unmeritoriously inject every single one of their paid shills into the scientific debate – the groups who looked at the accusations that Dr Mann did shoddy science (You asked what the smears are – there you go.) these groups are looking at science and not demogoguery.
If you feel that you are unduly missing out on demogoguery, then any number of right-wing blogs will be happy to fill the void.
You put great faith in these “authorities”. I’ve now looked at the reports of 2 of these “authorities”, and I’m not impressed, at all. The 2nd one, by Penn State, I only looked over as a consequence of participating in this thread. I’ve already noted specific objections.
It’s nice to know that these don’t bother you, at all. Why, in your mind, they’re just idiosyncratic irritations of mine, no more significant than the “color of the covers”.
Mann’s work is not only disrespected by so-called “deniers”, but also by Dr. Muller, who was a scientific skeptic, not “denier”, except perhaps in the most fanatical sense. Here’s Dr. Muller, of BEST fame:
Oh, and case anybody missed it, McIntyre’s take on the Penn State “investigation” is as follows:
If you have links to the other “investigations”, why don’t you post them? I’ll eventually get to reading them, probably. However, if you’ll trouble yourself to point out which of these “investigations” actually examines, in detail, the Mann methodology wrt McIntyre’s “spectral noise” criticism, then I’ll promise to at least read the first 20 pages, within the next couple of months.
Considering how the first two “investigations” read, I’m not holding my breath.
But hey, if you’re confident that they’re not laughable, you should be glad to post links, so that other readers of this diary can see how stellar your judgement, and that of the “authorities”, has proven to be.
Metamars needn’t bother digging up a “few” people who question the science. That’s because other people have been compiling lists, such as this one, which they claim now tops 1,000 scientists.
Tell me, does it not strike you as strange, at all, that with so many scientists doubting the catastrophist viewpoint, that there aren’t more public debates? Most of the serious debating has been done by well informed amateurs, not by working scientists. (E.g., Monckton vs Lambert). The Heartland Institute extended invitations to mainstream climate scientists for their big climate shindigs, but with one exception (that I recall), were invariably turned down.
According to the catastrophists, the fate of the world hangs in the balance. Well, with so much at stake, why not get a team of scientists, who are also crack debaters, to offer to take on any and all physical scientists that consider the catastrophist viewpoint as hooey?
I think tribalism will prevent you from giving a reasonable answer to this. But if not, then a reasonable answer might look like this: “Well, the Michael Mann’s of this world are quite ready, willing and able to debate – to save the Earth for their posterity, if for no other reason – but those yellow-bellied “deniers” are too scared to agree to such debates. Maybe they fly to the Bahamas every weekend, anyway, and spend their supplementary checks from Exxon Mobil”.
How would a reasonable person test such a hypothesis? Well, one way is to conduct a serious survey. You know, track down the office numbers of the catastrophist crowd, as well as a good sampling of the “denier” crowd. If you can’t get them on the phone, leave a message with their secretaries.
Then, tabulate the responses, and try and analyze the reasons for turning down debate invitations.
As for figuring out who flies to the Bahamas every weekend, you can always hire private detectives to follow people. Sounds pricey, but compare the prices for a few thousand man-hours of work to the cooking of planet Earth.
I’d say the detectives are a real bargain.
And how many of those “1,000 scientists” are climatologists? Sorry but “geologists,”environmentalists,”"mechanical engineers,” “biologists,” and “economists” would seem to be operating a bit outside their areas of expertise
You didn’t read my comment re Lindzen very carefully. Here it is, again:
.
Here is the specific Lindzen reference I had in mind, from this year: Reconsidering the Climate Change Act Global Warming: How to approach the science.
On page 48, Lindzen presents a table of feedbacks measured by satellites – ALL ARE NEGATIVE.
On page 49, Lindzen presents a table of feedbacks, as inputs to 11 different climate models – ALL ARE POSITIVE.
It’s interesting to see you get your knickers in a twist of a theory of Lindzen’s that’s over 20 years old, that didn’t work out, but why should I care? I’d care much more if Lindzen was adhering to a theory which was disproven.
Similarly, it’s not that the climate catastrophists have made scientific errors that bothers me. Rather, much more troubling is that they don’t fix up their damn models when they’re contradicted by reality.
And as for not improving them, along the lines suggested by Freeman Dyson literally decades ago, it’s hard enough for me to respect such a myopic crowd, which has amply demonstrated (in the aggregate) ugly tendencies to suppress competing theories.
Science is supposed to be self-correcting, but it’s hard to have much faith in the way science is actually practiced by flesh-and-blood scientists with such obstinate feet of clay.
mm, I was really more interested in your claim of ignorance on the part of D Noble.
But on those blue-haired NASA folks,
Please don’t send me to those bumblers at National Review next time. After learning you knew of Noble, it was disheartening.
That’s a fair criticism, if you narrowly define climate scientist as scientific modeler, who doesn’t let contrary physical reality impede their faith in their models. (see my previous comment about feedbacks in models, vs. satellite measurements).
A Ph.D. geologist, like Bob Carter, can authoritatively criticize some aspects of climate science (in particular, having a notion of what baseline variability in climate parameters looks like, over geological periods of time) as well as use common sense coupled with critical observations. (His comments about the impossible polar bears, that can’t exist because of prior warm periods, is the funny example I have in mind.) Doesn’t mean he is fit to criticize every last thing about climate science, but so what?
It doesn’t take an expert in climate modeling to understand the concept of omitted variable fraud, nor does it take an expert to look at the predictions of the catastrophists and compare them subsequent observations.
For purely statistical aspects of climate science, I think you’d be far, far better off with the critique of a statistical expert, who many not know anything about the climate, vs. a climate expert whose background in statistics is scant.
Climate science is really multi-disciplinary, so the oft-used knock about scientist X, Y, or Z not being a climate scientist really should cut both ways, equally. I assume that the tribe of respectable climate scientists care far more about whether you adhere, religiously, to CAGW, then any particular scientific argument you care to make. If you’re a “team player”, not being familiar with any of the climate models is probably just hunky dory.
Here’s a challenge for the hoi polloi, who have totally failed (here at FDL) to provide a satisfactory answer to the question “what is a climate change denier?”. (A satisfactory answer will either explain how a climate change denier doesn’t really deny that climate changes (good luck with that), admit that the phrase is a smear, or else admit that it is, indeed, a contradiction in terms, which they don’t understand. warp9 gets honorable mention for attempting an answer, but his answer didnt’ address the fundamental contradiction between the common sense interpretation, and the real people the phrase is applied to.) The new question is “Where is your comprehensive list of TRUE climate scientists, and what are their scientific specialties?”
See where I’m going with this?
metamars: a list of “references” from an unpublished paper is not a scientific argument, it’s a list. (One thing to note is how incestuous the list you give is, heavily weighted with the Pielke/Christy clan.)
I made specific points about assertions you made, a scientific response is to give reasons that you think my points are incorrect, and to cite datasets specific to the points you make. Your understanding seems to be only one talking point deep. Talking points are not science.
Instead you went off into Watts supposed upcoming answer to Muller and the Berkeley group, without mentioning the Muller at all. Muller’s paper specifically says what he did and how he did it, something you can never quite tell from one of Watts’ screeds. I’m not going to try to respond on that topic, it’s one of data analysis and Muller is not the first to show that the heat island and siting effects are negligible.
As far as your appeal to authority-count, the web list of “scientists” is no better than any web poll. You must be familiar by now with the much more substantial count of scientific societies that have endorsed the accuracy of the global warming research (such as my own APS.) Don’t think that these endorsements represent a small group; the officers are elected every year. Of course, while you endorse internet body counts, I expect you will play the “they’re all lemmings argument” when it comes to real scientific endorsements. Anything to justify a fixed idea.
metamars: Lindzen’s political speech to the house of commons is not a “reference;” it’s unreviewed. You’ll note that page 48 mentions “corrections from Trenberth.” This is called “I did the math wrong and I got caught.”
More notably, Lindzen has not actually fixed all the problems (math errors and errors as to the affects of satellite orbit decay) -that’s why he is having trouble publishing.
By the way, the tables aren’t a bunch of different feedback effects, it’s different estimates and measurements (he only cites measurements by his own group) of the same parameter.
I wasn’t making a scientific argument, more of a meta argument, against your claim that Watts offers “mere words”:
Here’s how Watts characterizes his paper, in a press release:
A reanalysis of U.S. surface station temperatures has been performed using the recently WMO-approved Siting Classification System devised by METEO-France’s Michel Leroy. The new siting classification more accurately characterizes the quality of the location in terms of monitoring long-term spatially representative surface temperature trends. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward. The paper is the first to use the updated siting system which addresses USHCN siting issues and data adjustments.
The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network.
This reads like an abstract, though it’s not the abstract in the (pre-release) paper, itself. Watts goes on to say,
The only way I can reconcile your claim of Watts offering “mere words”, against his claim of 5 YEARS of work with NUMEROUS COAUTHORS and “MANY VOLUNTEERS AND CONTRIBUTORS TO THE SURFACESTATIONS PROJECT STARTED IN 2007″ is that either you don’t know what you’re talking about, or else Watts is a complete liar and hoaxer.
Your question about what datasets he used is quite legitimate, and the short answer is: “I don’t know” (Though he refers to the USHCN stations. I don’t know if this, together with a date range, uniquely defines a data set, or not). However, I can also tell you that Watts is accessible (well, he SAYS he is; but maybe that’s another mega-lie of his, eh?) and, in fact, is soliciting review and criticism from the larger community.
If you really want to know what datasets he used, you can ask him, yourself. Right from the press release:
Contact:
Anthony Watts at: http://wattsupwiththat.com/about-wuwt/contact-2/
Now, sir, kindly tell us if you’re sticking with your accusation that Watts offers “mere words” for his claims. If you want to wait until you reproduce his calculations, before committing to an answer, fine and dandy, but I would seriously like to know, today, whether you TRULY expect to find that Watts is perpetrating a massive fraud, or not.
Since he intends to submit this work for publication, don’t you think his massive fraud would be discovered at that time? Also, do his co-authors really care so little about their reputations that they would willingly participate in this massive fraud? Or, do you expect that Watts is merely using their names as props, but he’s so delusional as to not expect Christy, McIntyre, and Evan Jones to blow the whistle on Watts’ mega-fraud?
Quite frankly, your statement about “mere words” sounds like a baseless smear. The alternative, in light of the new Watts paper, is that Watts’ reputation – whatever anybody thinks about it, today – will be forever ruined as his great scam unravels.
Is this really what you expect to happen? I suggest you think carefully, before you answer.
There are probably millions of scientists on Earth, it is not too big a surprise that a tiny minority are shills, creationists, and nut-balls.
How many nut-ball Flat-Earthers would it take for you to suggest that we need a public debate on whether the Earth is round?
You’re making assumptions about scientific sentiment that aren’t grounded in statistically sound facts. Those facts could be well established, by now, but in spite of the billions that have gone into climate research and mitigation, nobody who controlled the purse strings actually made such a call.
For purposes of propaganda, however, whatever it cost to get 97% of 77 scientists to agree on an imprecise statement in a 2 minute survey, that nevertheless can be broadcast far and wide (and repeated endlessly), was well worth it.
Why don’t you go ahead and find us a single working scientist, in the whole world, who believes in a flat earth, before I answer this question.
A smarter question would have been “how many scientists who are creationists would it for you to suggest that we need a public debate on whether the earth was created in 6 days and 6 nights.” That’s because there some such scientists.
The answer for this smarter question is : “it depends on for which audience the debates are intended – the public, or the scientific community”. I don’t see the point of any such debates for the scientific community, because I don’t think there’d be much interest. The only scientists who might be interested in such a debate are those who are already creationists, for religious purposes.
However, I think such debates are necessary for the public’s sake. We all know that there are school systems presenting evolution and creationism on equal footing, though scientifically speaking, there’s no comparison.
By analogy, even if your fantasies about what the scientific community believes about Al Gore’s climate consensus were correct (and you – and I – can’t say definitively what the real sentiments are), there’d still be a need, from the climate catastrophists’ perspective, to have such debates for the purpose of enlightening the public.
Yet, you see neither Al Gore, nor Michael Mann, calling for such debates. With the “fate of the Earth hanging in the balance”. That’s really more than strange – it morally indefensible, provided they a) believe what they say and b)agree that debates would convince others of the rightness of their position.
I have not the slightest doubt that you can come up with all sort of rationalizations for supporting a no-debate stance, but I’m sure to find your rationalizations mere examples of irrational tribalism, dressed up as something clever, when it’s really not. Just saying “the debate is over”, like Al Gore, doesn’t make it so, and there seems to be significant erosion of this belief, amongst the public. Overall, though, the pro-catastrophist scary headlines seem to dominate, though not at Fox News and such; also, I’ve read that school systems tend to embrace the catastrophic viewpoint (though I don’t know a lot about this angle). Also, where is Exxon-Mobil to run ad campaigns against the catastrophist viewpoint? Why does that dog not bark?
The net/net is that Al Gore can probably rest easy knowing that the bulk of the climate propaganda will support him. If he doesn’t feel debates will help his cause, why would he encourage them?
The tendency to avoid serious debate was discussed by Smolin in The Trouble with Physics. You can skim over the nuts and bolts string theory critique, for the more sociological and philosophical parts, if you’re actually interested in the subject of pathology within scientific communities.
If there was enough money $$$$$ involved in the matter, I’m sure you’d find some shill willing to say anything.
So what would be the result of such public debates about Evolution?
Creationists are creationists because they are not interested in the facts. And the very act of having such debates could make it seem that the creationist position is more legitimate than it is. And while the creationists wouldn’t be able to fool the scientists, they could probably fool the public, and make it seem that there are more doubts about the theory of Evolution than actually is the case. So I’m not sure that such debates would have a positive outcome.
Which, of course, brings us back to the matter of Global Warming. One can always call for “more debate,” and that is the basic tactic of those who would stop us from actually doing anything about the problem.
I don’t have a problem with debate, as long as we assume that the default position is protecting the Earth’s bio-sphere. And, until it has been proven absolutely safe to increase CO2 levels, we stop emitting greenhouse gasses. Once we halt those questionable industrial activities, then we can have all the debates you want.
The dirty energy crowd is going to basically spend whatever it takes to continue to do whatever they want. It appears right now that their more then likely going to succeed in that effort. These are people who gamble every day with millions drilling holes and looking for other energy resources, so gambling is not something they are shy about. In this case however if their gamble (that the climate science consensus is wrong) is incorrect the consequences for everyone are going to be pretty ugly. The audacity of believing they have the right to make such a decision for all of humanity and life on the planet in general just shows how arrogant and self-righteous they are. Metamars is just another example of just how desperate they are to take control of the whole discussion. He’s their attempt at saying we can hire or persuade in other ways as many shills as we need even smart ones like him to do our bidding. In the end the Planet doesn’t care, all they’re doing is increasing the probability that as this change happens we as a species won’t be able to ADAPT fast enough to survive in any kind of nos. Maybe, that’s their goal? I don’t know, but what they’re doing is irresponsible to the max and even criminal. At a min. it’s immoral and deeply unethical.
Lol. Well, at least you called me “smart”.
I’m not anybody’s “attempt” at doing anything, except my parents’ attempt at, you know, having a family life. You made up stuff, which you appear to believe, but I don’t see where that excuses you from not labeling your imaginary theories of me, as such.
Perhaps you are Carnac, the Magnificent, but are too humble to tell us.
LOL! I loved Carnac , but his predictions had a lot to be desired didn’t they? I think my average at least regarding this matter will be better then his.