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The End of Social Security

By: Nancy Altman Tuesday December 7, 2010 5:44 am

President Obama and the Republicans will say that the payroll tax holiday is all about stimulating the economy. But don’t be fooled. According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities,extending the Making Work Pay Tax Credit, is a much better, more targeted stimulus. See “Payroll Tax Holiday a Poor Stimulus Idea,” available at this link.

And the Making Work Pay Tax Credit poses no threat to Social Security. The innocent-sounding payroll tax holiday, on the other hand, will lead inexorably to killing Social Security. Let me explain:

Sixty members of the Senate are unwilling to raise taxes by 3 percent on the $250,000 and first dollar (and all those dollars earned above $250.001) of those making over $250,000 and by 1.6 percent more (for a total of 4.6 percent) on the $384,860 and first dollar {and all those dollars earned above $384,861) of those making over $384,860. They are even unwilling to spare everyone making less that one million dollars any increased taxes and simply raise taxes by 4.6 percent on the $1 million and first dollar (and all those dollars earned above $1,000,001 of the nation’s multimillionaires and billionaires. (I say multimillionaires because anyone with a net worth of a few million dollars is not making an annual income of over one million dollars.)

Given that unwillingness to raise taxes by less than a nickel on every dollar earned over $1 million, I find it unfathomable that a more conservative Congress, in two years, in an election year, will increase the payroll tax by 2 percent on the very first dollar, and every other dollar up to the cap, earned by virtually every single worker in the country. Consequently, I think we have to assume that the payroll tax holiday will be extended beyond the two years the president is proposing and quite likely could become permanent.

That means that the federal government will have to continue to transfer $120 billion to the Social Security trust funds each and every year even as it has to transfer more and more interest payments as the trust funds continue to grow and as interest rates return to more normal levels. Unless Congress acts to restore Social Security to solvency, the Treasury bonds held in trust will have to be redeemed, again on top of that new $120 billion transfer from the general fund, starting fifteen years from now, assuming Congress even continues to make the $120 billion every year before that point. These dollars will be competing with dollars for defense, environmental protection, education, school lunches, Food Stamps, Medicare, Medicaid, SSI, Pell grants for low income college students, and every other good and service financed by the federal government.

A permanent two percent cut in Social Security contributions doubles the 75 year projected shortfall. Scrapping the cap (eliminating the $106,800 maximum on earnings), tonally eliminates the shortfall today. If FICA is cut by 2 percent, scrapping the cap gets Social Security only halfway there.

The pressure to cut Social Security in a slow, gradual way for younger workers will be enormous. Progressives will not want to cut benefits for the low-income – and they shouldn’t be cut; they should be increased. Despite the fact that there are few beneficiaries who do not desperately need their Social Security – 2/3rds of the elderly and 70 percent of people receiving disability benefits rely on Social Security for half or more of their income and most people think even more people will be dependent on it in the future – nonetheless, means-testing Social Security will become a viable option. (Eliminating the benefits of those who don’t need them will make no difference to the solvency of Social Security, but will introduce administrative complexity, because it will require everyone claiming benefits to reveal their income and assets, to show they are of insufficient means to get by without it, and will destroy the universal, insurance nature of Social Security.) Changing the benefit formula in the manner proposed by a majority of the Catfood Commission, will appear attractive, even though it would gradually and inexorably eviscerate the benefits of the middle class, and with it, their support for the program.

Conservatives, from the moment Social Security was introduced in 1935, resisted a highly redistributive middle-class program, based on insurance principles. Throughout the past 75 years, they pushed for a program that mainly helped only the very poorest Americans by providing either a means-tested program or a low level of benefits for everyone, if they had to, paid from general revenue, but Democratic politicians were too smart to fall for that. They recognized that, not only did the middle class, not just the very poor, need economic protection in a capitalist system, but also that only programs that had broad based support, which provided meaningful benefits to the middle class, could offer meaningful benefits to the poor, as well. They understood the adage that programs exclusively for the poor made poor programs. One Democrat who understood this all very clearly was the one who created Social Security: President Franklin Roosevelt.

FDR recognized that a visible dedicated contribution makes it both politically and morally difficult for future politicians to cut Social Security. When pressed about the impact of payroll taxes on the economy, FDR said:

“I guess you’re right on the economics. They are politics all the way through. We put those pay roll contributions there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral, and political right to collect their pensions and their unemployment benefits. With those taxes in there, no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program. Those taxes aren’t a matter of economics, they’re straight politics.”

The fact that the Republican idea of scrapping the payroll tax is being touted as a concession made to the Democrats by the Republicans, shows just how hapless and clueless President Obama and his advisers are. Today’s Democrats seem to be able to win electorally when the Republicans start two endless wars and destroy the economy but they seem incapable of presenting a compelling vision of what they are for. Social Security is the nation’s most progressive program, but it is not a progressive issue. It is overwhelmingly popular with the vast majority of the American people, including the Tea Partiers. Today’s Democrats fail to understand the program, and so are not only blind to subtle assaults against it, but seem to conspire in those assaults. All I can say is that with the Republicans and the Democratic President, perhaps unwittingly, conspiring to destroy Social Security, the American people don’t stand a chance.

Good bye, Social Security. You did a great job for 75 years. Apparently, the President is ready to pull the plug on you, if not on Grandma herself.

Nancy Altman is the co-director of Social Security Works.

Strengthen Social Security, Don’t Cut It

By: Nancy Altman Friday September 3, 2010 3:11 pm

In a recent San Francisco Chronicle/SFGate op‐ed, Eugene Steuerle, Chair and Fellow at the Urban Institute, advocates lowering the heat on the debate over increasing Social Security’s “Retirement Age.” Let’s turn up the light. Here are why Mr. Steuerle’s “myths” are in fact true:

Supposed Myth, Actual Truth 1: Increasing the retirement age will reduce benefits.

For every year that Social Security’s statutorily defined “Retirement Age” is increased, its  monthly old-age benefits go down by approximately 6 to 7 percent, irrespective of whether the  worker claims benefits at age 62, age 70, or any age in between. (See attached chart.)

Mr. Steuerle confuses this point by focusing on average lifetime benefits, but that measure is  irrelevant. Social Security is insurance against the loss of monthly wages in the event of  disability, death, or old age. Women live longer than men, but no one argues that woman  who earns the same wage as her male counterpart should get a smaller monthly Social Security  check because she is part of a demographic that on average lives longer.

Policymakers should be asking what level of monthly benefits is appropriate for Social Security  to provide, can we afford it, and do we as a nation want it. I believe that benefits are too low  today, averaging just $1,071, less than full-time minimum-wage work, at a time when private  pensions are becoming less adequate and available and when Americans have lost trillions of  dollars in investments and home equity. We can afford Social Security’s current level of  benefits. The entire projected shortfall is just 0.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product, about the  same as extending the Bush tax cuts for the top two percent of the income scale. Poll after poll  has made clear that Americans value Social Security, believe that it is more important than ever, do not want the retirement age increased, and are willing to pay more to ensure it continues to pay all scheduled benefits.

Supposed Myth, Actual Truth 2: Increasing the retirement age discriminates against low-income workers.

Mr. Steuerle once again confuses the issue by focusing on the fact that low-income workers  receive a disproportionate share of disability benefits. What he fails to point out, however, is  that the very reasons that low-income workers constitute a higher proportion of disabled workers are among the same reasons that lower-income workers disproportionately have to  stop work and retire early. Not all workers who work in physically demanding and dangerous jobs become disabled, but that does not mean that they can remain on the job forever. Raising  the “Retirement Age” reduces early retirement benefits substantially. When the “Retirement Age” for Social Security was age 65, a worker claiming benefits at age 62 received 20 percent less a month, simply because of claiming benefits three years early. Once the “Retirement Age” is 67, workers claiming early retirement benefits will receive 30 percent less each month, simply because they claim early. If the “Retirement Age” is increased to age 70, those workers  claiming benefits at age 62 will receive 43.5 percent a month less.

Supposed Myth, Actual Truth 3: Increasing the retirement age makes Social Security reform regressive.

Mr. Steuerle makes the point that changing the COLA and other proposed benefit cuts are arguably even more regressive than raising the “Retirement Age.” Moreover, he argues that one could develop a package that contains progressive elements. Neither point changes the fact that raising the “Retirement Age” will be hardest on those of low-income. A truly progressive solution would be to have no increase in the “Retirement Age” and no other benefit cuts, but instead simply have those who can most afford to pay somewhat more, do so.  This is what the American people say they want, according to polls.

Supposed Myth, Actual Truth 4: Social Security’s Old-Age Insurance goes to the old.

Mr. Steuerle focuses on seniors’ work lives when Social Security was first enacted, in order to  make the oxymoronic argument that old-age insurance goes to people who are not old. What  he fails to mention is that at the time of enactment, every state but New Mexico had poorhouses for those who could no longer support themselves and had no relatives willing or  able to take them in. There are some among us who seem happy to turn the clock back and have Americans work until they drop. This is not Mr. Steuerle’s view, I hasten to add. Nor is it mine. I agree with the late Vice President Hubert Humphrey when he so eloquently said, “[T}he moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped.”

Supposed Myth, Actual Truth 5: The elderly need to fear such Social Security reforms as increasing the retirement age.
Mr. Steuerle seems to buy the “Greedy Geezer” slander that older people care only about  themselves. In the American families I know, grandparents love their grandchildren and want to ensure that they are economically secure as they age. Seniors are most active in the issue of Social Security because they have the experience and wisdom to understand the important role Social Security plays in providing vital economic security to all Americans. They very much should fear that, without their active clear voices, their children and grandchildren will be less well protected in the unfortunate event of disability or death of a provider or the fortunate event of living very long lives.

Mr. Steuerle believes the heat should be turned down on today’s debate. In contrast, in light of the current attraction of some elites to proposals that weaken Social Security’s vital protection, I believe that the heat is not yet high enough.

Chart:

Explanatory Note: This chart illustrates the impact on monthly benefits that results from changing Social Security’s statutory “Retirement Age.” It is based on a hypothetical worker whose wage record entitles him or her to $1,000/month at the statutory “Retirement Age.” The dollar amounts will vary with a worker’s particular wage record, but the percentage reductions shown are the actual reductions for all workers. They do not vary with earnings. The dollar amount shown is the benefit paid monthly for the rest of the worker’s life, adjusted only for inflation once it has begun to be received.

Age 65 is the statutory “Retirement Age” for beneficiaries born prior to 1938; age 67 is the statutory “Retirement Age” for beneficiaries born 1960 or later. 42 U.S.C. §416(l) The earliest age a worker can claim Social Security old age benefits is age 62. 42 U.S.C. §402 House Minority Leader John Boehner (R‐OH), among others, has proposed increasing the statutory “Retirement Age” to age 70. This chart assumes that the earliest age at which benefits can be claimed will remain age 62 even if the statutory “Retirement Age” is raised to age 70.

42 U.S.C. §402(q) and §402(w) specify the actuarial adjustments when benefits are claimed before or after the statutory “Retirement Age.” §402(w)(6)(D) provides that for workers reaching age 62 after 2004, benefits are increased by two thirds of 1% for every month of work, up to age 70, after the statutory “Retirement Age,” and that is the adjustment factor used in the chart. As a matter of historical fact, the transition to a larger adjustment factor and to a higher statutory “Retirement Age," meant that when the statutory “Retirement Age” was 65, the adjustment factors varied with year of birth, in accordance with §§402(w)(6)(A), (B), and (C).

Source: The benefit amounts in the chart were calculated by Nancy J. Altman, Co‐Director, Social Security Works. They have been reviewed for accuracy by the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration.