Hurricane Sandy Turns Away From US as Greedy Disaster Capitalists and Dishonest Politicians Try to Save Their Investments — by NormanB (“Deviations form the Norm”)

New title at 822 AM EDT Monday, October 29, 2012: UPDATE: Hurricane Sandy Turns Back Toward US as Greedy Disaster Capitalists and Dishonest Politicians Try to Save Their Investments

*DANGER* UPDATE: Hurricane Sandy has strengthened overnight and turned back toward the United States as expected. It is headed directly at New York City. *DANGER*

 

 

The story below and updates were in real time, while the hurricane was headed away and weakening. The real time UPDATE reports continue. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Hurricanes usually turn right, as this one is doing now. Global-Warming Hurricane Sandy is turning away from the United States, and to this experienced hurricane watcher, it looks like “she” could miss us. But some companies have invested in this “disaster,” and want you to spend money on it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/hedging-a-hurricane-making-mother-nature-pay-22UNIxtOQRmpvAfMQSZCSw.html

Be afraid. Be very afraid. President Obama warned of the danger too. That’s when I breathed a major sigh of relief, because, as far as I know, President Obama has never told the truth about Climate Science in his life. Please notice weather-anomaly that he doesn’t mention the fact that a Global-Warming hurricane at this time of the Climate-Change year is related to this country’s superstitious practice of burning Oil and Coal for the profit of those who pay for our political campaigns. It’s called “The Bribery Paradigm.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/28/obama-hurricane-sandy_n_2035216.html

I’ve been keeping close track of the storm’s progress. After the raw data, I note some possibly significant changes. I’ve been watching hurricanes for a long time. I was born in Virginia, and lived in Florida most of my life. Both are likely targets for hurricanes and flooding. Here’s some backlogged live-blogging so you can see what’s been happening.

21 GMT 10/25/12  24.5N 75.6W

8:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 25
Location: 24.8°N 75.8°W
Moving: NNW at 17 mph: Storm motion: 315 degrees
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Highest sustained winds have dropped from 110 early last night to 100 at 8pm to 80 now: Just barely a hurricane by that reckoning. It is traveling toward the US at 13 mph on a “315-degree” trajectory: 315 degrees is exactly Northwest; 360 is exactly North; 337.5 is exactly North-by-Northwest: These are numbers that indicate it will hit Cape Hatteras, the North Carolina coast, assuming it will turn right as hurricanes usually do.

If it continues in a Northwesterly direction it will make landfall before [South of] Cape Hatteras. A direct his on Hatteras could mean flooding in the Tidewater area of Southeastern Virginia, including most of the state’s largest cities, including Portsmouth where I was born and still have lots of relatives.

For a direct hit on New Jersey or New England, that digital compass direction will need to advance Eastward, toward 360 degrees then beyond zero:

If it very soon curves sharp right and goes beyond zero, then, here it comes! But there’s still some chance that it will head out to sea.

5:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 26
Location: 26.3°N 76.9°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA (as in Noah’s Flood?) updates its info every 3 hours: At 8, 11, 2, and 5: -am and -pm.

For those wishing to keep checking for themselves, here is its link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

8:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 26
Location: 26.4°N 76.9°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph: Storm Motion: 325 degrees
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

The 8 am report shows that its position has barely changed in 3 hours, which is usually a sign of the hurricane building energy. Storm motion has further slowed to 10mph, and its direction has altered, yes, to the right, toward the North, and a little less West. Still 80 mph. The air pressure measured in the hurricane has raised/weakened, but just by 2 millibars, which is no doubt within the margin of error.

Trajectory at 7 am was 325 degrees: That’s exactly North-by-Northwest.

The 11 am report looks very bad for those of us here in the Northeast.

11:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 26
Location: 26.7°N 76.9°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

Pressure and wind speed remained about the same, but movement slowed and turned more Easterly, now aimed at the direct North:

If it continues to turn right, it’s headed here. (Probably.)

11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 26
Location: 27.7°N 77.1°W
Moving: N at 7 mph: Storm motion: 350 degrees
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Hurricane Sandy’s direction is 350 degrees: A little to West of due North (which is 360 degrees – or zero degrees): If it continues in a straight line, it hits the Southern North Carolina coast. Since I posted 12 hours ago, it has traveled one degree North: 70 miles. Since 12 hours ago, it has veered to the West by two tenths of a degree: That’s a little better for our chances here in the Northeast of avoiding landfall in New Jersey or Long Island.

Wind speed has dropped by 5mph since 12 hrs ago: If it drops one more degree, it will cease to be a hurricane. The measured air pressure has dropped since then, but only by an insignificant one millibar.

2:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 27
Location: 28.1°N 76.9°W
Moving: NNE at 7 mph: Storm motion: 015 degrees
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Direction is now 015: The storm has turned sharp right: 25 degrees to the right since 3 hours ago. This could be following the expert-predicted pattern, and would not be good for us here in the Northeast. However, I have to hope that such a sharp right turn means that it is turning right as most hurricanes do, and that it will head on out to sea.

It is now headed directly at Cape Hatteras: The storm motion direction reading of 015 is slightly to the East of due North, but way to the West of exact North-by-Northeast, which is 045 degrees.

5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 31.9°N 73.3°W
Moving: NE at 13 mph: Storm motion: 040 degrees
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

At this point, the storm is aimed at Nova Scotia, and at no part of the United States.

8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.1°N 73.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.5°N 72.6°W
Moving: NE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.8°N 71.9°W
Moving: NE at 14 mph: Storm motion: 050 degrees
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 33.4°N 71.3°W
Moving: NE at 15 mph: Storm motion: 050 degrees
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

As I reported 38 hours ago, the storm if moving out to sea, and is aimed at no part of the United States, and now it’s not aimed at North America at all, just out to sea. The fear is that it will react with the cold front sweeping Southward through our country to cause a super storm. And saying such things sells a lot of soap. And even more Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas.

The Storm motion is the compass direction. 000 or 360 is North. 180 is South. 90 is East. 270 is West. The digital indication tells more precisely what direction the storm is headed. It is headed out to sea and currently turning right, to the East, away from the United States. It is still possible that this hurricane will turn back to the left/West. If the storm does start to turn back toward this country, I will let you know in real time in the Comments section below.

But notice that since 11 pm two days ago, wind speed has remained a steady 75 mph (the minimum wind speed to maintain a “hurricane” classification): If it dropped by one mile per hour, it would no longer be a hurricane. If the weather service were to have already admitted that it’s no longer a hurricane, or that it’s no longer likely to hit the US, well all that money spending on preparedness will stop. Cristy and Obama will have to stop posturing trying to look Presidential.

The storm is now turning right as they usually do, and this last digital direction reading shows it going even further right. Right is away from us. If it comes back left, it could hurt us. I will let you know if it turns back left: That’s the only way it can hurt us.

Lower barometric pressure makes for bigger storms: Cyclones, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and tornadoes, are low-pressure storms, and they spin counter-clockwise if North of the Equator. Higher air pressure lessens the intensity of such storms. The pressure was going up early Friday morning, then it held steady from 8 am Friday to 2 am Saturday. Then it started dropping, a little. By 8 am Sunday, it had dropped to it’s lowest point. At last report, it had gone up by a statistically insignificant one millibar. I’ll patch in the 8 pm report here as soon as it comes in.

UPDATE:

8:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 34.0°N 70.9°W
Moving: NE at 15 mph: Storm motion: 050 degrees
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

The air pressure has dropped by two millibars: That’s almost holding steady. The wind speed is still minimum for a hurricane. Tropical Storm Sandy is still headed out to sea. That 050-degree Storm direction is just to the East of due Northeast, which is 045 degrees. To threaten us in the US, it would have to turn left: It would have to rejust that compass direction back to the West of North: If Sandy now went straight Northward, it would be a direct strike on Boston. But it’s not doing that, it’s headed out to sea: It’s now not aimed at any part of the US or Canada. I’ll let you know in real time in the Comments section if it comes back our way. For now, it looks like we’re safe. Woo-hooo!

It’s quite possible that Tropical Storm Sandy is going away and can’t hurt us. Meanwhile, there’s a rigged Presidential Election right now in the United States. Get back to work on politics, my fellow journalists.

11:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 34.5°N 70.5°W
Moving: NE at 14 mph: Storm motion: 045 degrees
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

For a full 48 hours now the wind speed has not wavered from 75 mph – the minimum hurricane-speed wind. The pressure has remained 950 millibars since the last report, the lowest it’s been since leaving the Bahamas. Barometric pressure has not dropped significantly since 8 am this morning. The Storm motion is now due Northeast: 045 degrees: That means it has veered leftward by 5 degrees since three hours ago. It will have to shift another 90 degrees leftward to follow the path projected by the learn’d astronomer meteorologists.

If the storm proceeds in its current direction, it will not strike the mainland of North America, but it will hit Newfoundland. If it were to go straight North, the eye would cut across Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and then make land at the Maine-New Hampshire border. If, on the other hand, it makes the predicted 90 degree leftward turn, and if this 5 degree variance in the last three hours is the beginning of a turn that will continue for a full 90 degrees, then I’m in for a world of pain, because it will be heading right for the Eastern end of Long Island and Long Island Sound: That could cause flooding, even here on a little brook flowing into a tiny river that’s a tributary of the mighty Connecticut. A flood on this brook washed away a bridge and killed people a hundred years ago.

Don’t mistake this for sound medical advice. As cmaukonen pointed out in the Comments section below, I’m a blogger with an agenda, not a meteorologist. I am just reporting the facts as the National Weather Service gives them, and making a few points here and there. I don’t have training to calculate on anything other than those physical facts. So, I am only reporting those raw physical data. So, don’t accept this as good news – it’s not. There is opportunity to be hopeful. If at 8 am tomorrow the storm is still headed to the Northeast, that is further reason to be hopeful. If however the 11 am update tomorrow morning shows that the storm has missed its turn, and is still traveling Northeasterly, the learn’d ones may have wisely erred on the side of caution, and it might not come here.

Don’t start partying yet. Unless partying is your lifestyle. I don’t recommend hurricane parties, but no-hurricane parties are OK with me. For now, I’m hunkered down and harboring cautious evacuees, but if the storm makes that 90-degree turn, we may all have to evacuate to someplace not on the water.

*DANGER* UPDATE:

5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 29
Location: 35.9°N 70.5°W
Moving: N at 15 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 29
Location: 36.8°N 71.1°W
Moving: NNW at 20 mph: Storm motion: 330 degrees
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Overnight, Hurricane Sandy turned left, more Westerly: Back toward the East coast of the United States, much like meteorologists had forecast. The storm has turned left by a reported 75 degrees: Thats 75 degrees of the forecast 90 degree turn already accomplished, by the predicted time, 8 am. Winds remained at 85 mph all night: Now Sandy is solidly a hurricane, by definition (Category 1).

Pressure dropped by 4 millibars in the 3 hours leading up to the 5 am update from NOAA, but did not drop further between 5 and 8. The storm is headed directly at Staten Island: If this keeps up, things could be terrible in New York City, Long Island, the Jersey Shore, Connecticut, Western Massachusetts, Vermont, and the next country up. I’m in Western Massachusetts. I’m watching closely. You should too.


*DANGER* UPDATE:

11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 29
Location: 37.5°N 71.5°W
Moving: NNW at 18 mph: Storm motion: 330 degrees
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

Winds have increased to 90 mph. Barometric pressure has dropped another 3 millibars in the past 3 hours. It is still headed directly at Staten Island, now at 18 mph – 3 hours ago it was coming at 20 mph. It’s still a Category 1 hurricane. At this point, the only thing that could save our country from a direct hit is … well … nothing. Batten down the hatches!

*DANGER* UPDATE:

11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 29
Location: 37.5°N 71.5°W
Moving: NNW at 18 mph: Storm motion: 330 degrees
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

Winds have increased to 90 mph. Barometric pressure has dropped another 3 millibars in the past 3 hours. It is still headed directly at Staten Island, now at 18 mph – 3 hours ago it was coming at 20 mph. It’s still a Category 1 hurricane.At this point, the only thing that could save our country from a direct hit is … well … nothing. Batten down the hatches! The eye of the storm is about 250 miles due South of central Long Island.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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My aunt lived in Beach Haven on Long Beach Island on the Jersey shore, the third house from the Atlantic Ocean. One day a big storm came by surprise, not a hurricane, a Nor’easter. I guess it was out of season, and the two houses between her and the Ocean were unoccupied at the time. The storm washed those two houses away as my aunt watched from her house.

For years, in fact, for decades those two lots sat vacant with their mostly-flattened fences lying in the beach sand as a reminder to any prospective buyer that houses built here are destined to wash away. Eventually, of course, greed got the better of some builder/speculator, who built and sold houses there to unsuspecting pigeons whose houses will wash away someday (probably much sooner than other houses). Elliott read that little blurb in a comment, and right away reminded me that this storm was so big that it had a name: The Long Island Express, in 1938.

(Yes, my aunt weathered a storm as an adult, way back in 1938. And my uncle, her husband, fought in World War I. That’s right. I’m old. But I wasn’t born [not for 18 years yet] when that 1938 storm blew in.)

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Troubled by what I said about President Obama never telling the truth about Climate Science? I’ll tell you what I’m gonna do: I’m a poor man, but I’ll put money on it: A guarantee: $100 to the first person who can prove to me that President Obama has ever told the truth about Climate Science. Here’s all you have to do to collect: Make a copy of the speech where he tells the truth: Include the date and location, and the chemical formula of the Greenhouse Gas about which he told the truth. (CO2, CH4, NO2, O3, H2O, SF6, NF3, Freon, or Ether.)

Include why you believe what he said is true, and please, include a copy of the entire speech: This step is crucial: You see, the President could just list a bunch of troubling facts. But if he doesn’t initiate policies that deal with those troubling facts, and if he was just listing them to trick people into voting for him, that’s what I consider a lie, not the truth. If anywhere in the speech, the President mentions Clean Coal or Clean Nukes or the need to Drill and Mine and Frack and Nuke more (as he always does), then the speech is a lie. This hundred dollars is burning a Global Warming hole in my pocket! Somebody please prove me wrong.