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I know it’s early, and I know many of you have pointed out, accurately, that state polls this early are nearly meaningless. Still, for the political junkies out there it’s all in good fun, especially for the likes of me who really don’t care which corporatist bastard wins the White House. Well, full disclaimer, if you held a gun to my head and demanded that I choose the lesser evil between Obama and Romney, I’d pick Romney.
Anyway, according to the latest mishmash of statewide polls that have a ghost of a chance of being accurate if the election were held today, the electoral map would look like this:
If Obama or Romney was ahead by more than 5 points, I gave that state to him. If this is accurate, then all Obama has to do is to pick up any of the undecided states other than Colorado and he’s got it. Obama’s clearly the favorite if you want to phone in your bet to Vegas.
Just for fun, I’ll post this every week or two. Feel free to go to the site to which I linked yourself. They don’t mind, and you can check on how the Electoral College looked in every Presidential election from George Washington on, and might actually learn something if you’re not careful :)
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Sorry, OB, but if post any predictions about which major party candidate will win, it can only be bad news for us.
I agree completely. As I said, this is primarily for entertainment for, well, in my case, former political junkies.
Its also interesting because we can look at the map and look at Mitt’s VP candidates just how many electoral votes a candidate can bring Mitt will be a factor.
The VP is meant to give the candidate access to votes he can’t get on his own.
Considering Mitt’s popularity problems he could use help with Women, Hispanics, Moderate Voters, Gays, even many Southern Fundies consider Mormonism a cult Mitt very well might need a VP to help him with the Fundy GOP base.
Mitt’s VP choice tells us what is important to him. We need this information their is hardly a single issue he has not flip flopped on we have no real idea what his true beliefs are except that in order to win he will say anything.
238 Mitt to 221 Obama because without Hillary on the ticket Ohio and Florida go Mitt per the Suffolk University – Political Research Center – poll.
Also not so sure some of those blue states in the upper mid-west are all that solid for Obama.
I suspect a close race in 2012, esp. after more folk realize that Obama plans another “Grand Bargain” to screw Social Security and Medicare after the election as he avoids the Clinton tax rates returning and gives the rich another tax cut – hidden by pretend loophole closing.
All of the above will be excused because we must avoid the $6 trillion deficit reduction that is automatic if nothing is done about the Bush tax tax cuts and other items – avoid the “fiscal cliff”. So the tax cuts for the rich – albeit said to have “loophole closing” that will be combined with tiny “stimulus spending” and cuts to SS/Medicare – will further turn off the base and kill Democratic turnout. Already the White House has given up on the goal of a billion dollar war chest for the election – the base is not responding all that well this year.
Thanks for bringing this to our attention.
I have a question:
“If this is accurate, then all Obama has to do is to pick up any of the undecided states other than Colorado and he’s got it.”
But it looks like according to your count Obama only has 227: That’s 43 away from 270. Doesn’t this mean he needs to pick up at least two states, unless one of them is California.
Turns out I was unable to lock in my map. Others could go in and change it. Sorry. My original map had Obama at 260 electoral votes. That is admittedly hedging by counting the leaners of more than 5% on both sides. If I expand the tossup states to 10%, even Texas becomes a battleground state because Romney is up only by 8 points there, which says something.
Presidential elections don’t have to be this way.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of ‘battleground’ states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just ‘spectators’ and ignored after the primaries.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes – 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
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