The future of health care reform in America is now in the hands of Harry Reid. Part of his calculations must be his re-election campaign of 2010, which polling shows him in an anemic position:

In Clark County, where Reid needs to dominate to win another term, he is in a statistical tie with either Lowden or Tarkanian.

"That is the bad news," UNLV political science professor David Damore said of Reid’s Clark County numbers. "That tells you there is a disaffected base there."

Lowden and Tarkanian are Republicans from central casting, and Reid is in a tie with them in Clark County, where Las Vegas is and where Reid would need a blowout as a hedge against the more conservative north.

In short, Senate Majority Reid’s re-election chances look bleak. Oh, sure, he has a $25 million war-chest, but what will he campaign on? I don’t think whining about irrelevant Republican obstructionism seems very leadershippy to me, just saying. What is he thinking or what are those people who are paid to think for him (consultants) advising him?

If only there was some major initiative sitting on his desk where he had to crack heads to get done. You know, something wanted by a majority of voters.

Would it show more strength to force over fifty Senators to cave for a weaker bill than to force four to accept one with teeth?

A health care bill with a public option?

Senator Reid should choose wisely.

During the dog days of this summer, after all of this has shaken out, thousands of progressive bloggers will be returning to Las Vegas for Netroots Nation. These bloggers represent millions of progressive activists all across America.

The Democratic wing of the Democratic party will be in Las Vegas at the beginning of his re-election campaign. On Harry Reid’s front porch.

The very people who worked so hard to retake the House in 2006, the Senate and White House in 2008.

Senator Reid must use the power he has been given to enact HCR with a public option. If not, well, it’s going to be a long, hot summer for Harry.