This week government officials disclosed a secret nuclear plant in Iran capable of producing working warheads within the next several years, resulting in a plethora of international condemnation. However, the discussion of the threat from Iran seems to be misdirected towards the concept of an actual nuclear detonation. To be sure, the use of these weapons is a frightful idea, but far more dangerous to international security is the arms race that would inevitable result from Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weaponry.
The Middle-East is a region where relations between states are already incredibly tense. With one state wielding such a powerful weapon, the incentive for other nations to build up defenses becomes almost unbearable. States like Israel, Syria, and Iraq that are in close proximately to Iran will inevitably have to increase the size of their militaries to serve as deterrence. Such a scenario almost certainly leads to violence. So, perhaps the United States should be more concerned about the saber-rattling itself and less about constructing timetables for when a weapon could be used.